Cadmus TMI Mock Draft

[Cadmus]

Intro:

Before we start, I just wanted to thank @JBURGE for the help. I also wanted to take a moment to explain my philosophy with regard to the draft. I wanted the mock to be as realistic as possible, which means no crazy trades, and I won’t draft players if I don’t think they’ll actually be available at a specific draft slot. 

First, some clarification on GB’s salary cap situation because I’ve seen a lot of confusion here in recent weeks:

Per Field Yates the Packers have slightly over $14 Million in cap space available.

After you account for the rookie draft pool ($4.72 Million)—the Packers have 9.287 Million left in available cap space.

I don’t typically link outside articles, but if you guys have any questions about the Packers official cap space there’s an excellent article here: GB Salary Cap Space

 

Alright, let’s get started with a few final moves in Free Agency:

Free Agency:

Tre Boston

2 Years/ 7.5 Million (2.5 Million SB) [2019 Cap Hit = 2.5 Million]

There isn’t much to say that hasn’t already been said. The safety position looks sorely undermanned opposite Amos. A 26-year-old 6^th year veteran—Boston provides both a short-term band-aid, and a potential long-term option to solidify the back-end of the defense. Gutekunst decides to sign the veteran before the draft to provide more flexibility to draft BPA. Parker represents another (potentially less volatile) veteran candidate that should be considered before the draft (also a cheaper [see: vet minimum] alternative). 

Tre Boston 2018 Highlights

Other Options: Ron Parker, Mike Mitchell, Jahleel Addae

 

Muhammad Wilkerson

1 Year/ 2.6 Million (950,000 Million base/800,000 Million SB) (800,000 per-game roster Bonus) [2019 Cap Hit = 1.9 Million]

Wilkerson wants to re-sign and the Packers welcome him back with open arms. Having suffered a nasty injury that he thought was a potential career-ender when it occured--Wilkerson is amenable to a reduced deal that includes a number of bonuses. With regard to the contract--Wilkerson’s heavy per-game roster bonus will be based on 2018, and since he only played 3 games—only $150,000 of that total will count against the 2019 salary cap. Bailey represents another viable option for veteran DL depth. However, Bailey has made a lot of visits already this offseason, so I’d imagine the price will be higher than what Gutekunst is willing to spend.

Other Options: Allen Bailey, Rodney Gunter

 

Dexter McDonald

1 Year/ 805,000 [veteran minimum]

A veteran minimum contract that gives McDonald a chance to reboot his career. McDonald was one of Green Bay’s 30 pre-draft visits in the 2015 Draft class, and he played well when he saw the field during the 2017 season. He suffered an ankle injury during the preseason last year and was placed on IR before the start of the 2018 season. I’ve been a fan of McDonald since he was at Kansas and he represents an ideal option to compete with Tony Brown at CB4. McDonald possesses the ability to develop into a starter on the boundary in the NFL, the question is whether the staff can get that out of him. A gifted athlete at 6’1” and 200lbs, McDonald tested well at his Pro Day in 2015—4.42 40 Time, 40.5” VJ, 134” BJ, and 6.93 3C. McDonald may be a candidate for a veteran minimum salary benefit contract depending on whether he signs before or after the draft (I grouped McDonald with the rest of the FAs before the draft, but that doesn’t mean I necessarily think he’d sign before then). 

Breakdown on McDonald

McDonald Highlights at Kansas

Other Options: Coty Sensabaugh, Kayvon Webster

 

FA Conclusion:

2019 Cap Hits: Boston (2.5 Million) + Wilkerson (1.9 Million) + McDonald ([up to] $805,000) = 5.205 Million

[veteran minimum x 570,000] = 1.71 Million

5.205 Million – 1.71 Million = 3.495 Million

9.287 Million (From initial explanation of GB’s cap health)- 3.495 Million (FA cap charges) = 5.792 Million in remaining salary cap space AFTER you account for rookie draft class. That number would be over 6 Million if McDonald signed a veteran minimum salary benefit contract. That number would also continue to increase (or should at least remain close to stagnant) as drafted (and undrafted) rookies make the final roster instead of more expensive veteran counterparts.

 

AAF Players:

I was going to make a separate post about AAF players near the end of the season, but since the league dissolved, I decided to put a few players of interest here. I won’t directly speculate on who the Packers would be willing to sign, but here’s a few AAF players that remain unsigned that could make sense for GB--AND--probably deserve the opportunity to be in an NFL camp this summer. (Note: I didn’t include Charles Johnson because I don’t think that’s realistic based on the history there).

Ed Reynolds (FS- 6’1”/207 –27) I’m sure almost everyone remembers Reynolds from mocks of yesteryear. I only saw a single AAF game of Reynolds, but I was impressed by the play-speed and the overall range he displayed in coverage. He consistently appeared to be the most explosive player on the field and he received an extremely favorable overall grade from PFF.

 

Nick Truesdell (WR- 6’5”/249 –29)- Truesdell bounced around the NFL for a bit following some success in the AFL. He’s much older than the rest of the players mentioned, but he also was by far the best TE in the AAF, and probably one of the five best receiving weapons in the entire league. He doesn’t represent a long-term solution, but if the Packers can’t secure 2 TEs in the upcoming draft he would represent a viable option to improve the depth and receiving capability of the group.

Nick Truesdell AAF Highlights

Dontez Ford (WR- 6’1”/211 –25)- Ford was perhaps the most exciting WR on any field during the short-lived AAF. In six weeks, Ford had 15 receptions for 435 yards for a staggering 29.0 yards per reception. He was big play threat every time he touched the ball and consistently appeared to be one of the most explosive players on the field. He suffered an ankle injury in Week 6 and was placed on IR by the Fleet, which he means he’ll need to get healthy before he can sign with an NFL squad.

 

De’Mornay Pierson-El (WR- 5’9”/195 –23)- Pierson-El is the youngest player on the list, and that might work in his favor. As a rookie last year, he signed as a UDFA with the Redskins. Pierson-El likely had a tough time receiving enough reps to standout in Redskins TC due to the fact he was buried on the depth chart behind Crowder and (possibly Jay Gruden’s new favorite player) Trey Quinn.  An underdeveloped option at Nebraska, Pierson-El could provide a viable option in the slot and on punt/kick returns if given the opportunity.

Signed with the Raiders

Shakir Soto (DT- 6’3”/300 –25)- It’s especially hard to judge front seven players in the OL deficient AAF, but Soto consistently popped in the single game I saw. He’s a player that has seemingly needed time to adequately develop for the NFL game. He wasn’t able to stick for the Broncos or Raiders, but based on his play in the AAF he could provide sensible DL depth with potential untapped upside.

Signed with the Cowboys

 

Roster Analysis:

Now that we’re done with FA, let’s take a quick look at the current state of the roster before we proceed.

 

QB: Aaron Rodgers, DeShone Kizer, Tim Boyle

Rodgers still has multiple seasons left in him, and should possess at least a few more seasons of play as an elite QB1. Gutekunst has clearly invested in Kizer via trade and that combined the cheap rookie contract leads me to believe Packers will be inclined to provide him with at least another year of development under the new staff before they begin to look elsewhere. Boyle intrigued during the preseason last year and should be given every opportunity to get reps behind Kizer in TC.

# of QBs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 0-1 [0]

Draft Class: Day 3 includes more than a few interesting QB prospects, but I think the Packers want to see what they have in Kizer before they draft another player.  

 

RB: Aaron Jones, Jamaal Williams, Kapri Bibbs, Tra Carson, Lavon Coleman, Malcolm Johnson (FB), Danny Vitale (FB).

Jones enters 2019 as the clear starter with a strong desire to prove that he can stay healthy for a full season. As long as he continues to develop that lower body—I don’t see why he can’t be considered a fringe Top 10 RB in the NFL by the end of the season. I wasn’t a huge fan of Williams as a rookie, but I was admittedly quite impressed by his sophomore effort. Williams demonstrated improved burst and seems to have improved his flexibility, both of which were apparent on a few runs late last season.  Bibbs represents the clear #3 option in this group, and there shouldn’t be any reason for concern if he maintains that role into the 2019 season. Carson primarily contributes on special teams, but he’s had preseason success in the past. I liked Coleman at Washington, but he played soft at times and didn’t time well. I wouldn’t be surprised if either Carson or Coleman were cut for UDFAs. Johnson is listed as a RB, but I have to believe that he will serve as competition with Vitale for the FB job. He’s a good receiver that lacks any dynamic qualities and thus must earn his keep at FB and on specials. Vitale is clearly the favorite at FB, if we decide to carry one. Vitale must earn his role on special teams and will likely have to compete with the TEs on the roster for that final spot.

# of RBs/FBs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 0-1 [1]

Draft Class: The 2019 NFL Draft contains more depth at the RB position than high-end talent. If the Packers select a RB in the NFL Draft, expect that selection to occur on Day 3. There a few interesting targets, but I suspect there will be many NFL level players available as UDFAs this year. I’d expect the Packers to add at least 1-2 RBs following the draft if they don’t decide to add one on Day 3.

 

WR: Davante Adams, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Geronimo Allison, Equanimeous St. Brown, J’Mon Moore, Jake Kumerow, Trevor Davis, Allen Lazard, Teo Redding

Adams has solidified himself as one of the Top 8 WRs in the NFL. Valdes-Scantling and Allison will be the primary competitors for the #2 job behind Adams. Personally, I expect Valdes-Scantling to cement himself as the #2 before the end of the 2019 season unless one of the other talented 2^nd year players rapidly emerges. Allison is a decent possession WR who will definitely have a role this season, but 2019 likely represents his final season in Green Bay as I expect another team will pay more than Gute is willing to spend (especially when you consider the roster in hand). St. Brown showed tremendous promise during his rookie season and will finish his rookie contract in Green Bay as he continues the quest to develop into legitimate #2 or #3 WR. Moore had a rough rookie season, but still possesses just as much ability as the moment he was drafted. He seems to have re-committed himself to his craft and hopefully that will translate into noticeable development. Kumerow is held in high regard by QB1, and if he can continue to develop that relationship it may lead to a spot on the final roster. Davis is on his last legs, and needs to prove his worth on special teams to secure a spot on the roster. Quite frankly, I don’t like his chances. Lazard possesses an interesting frame, but he probably lacks the explosiveness necessary to push for a roster spot. Redding possesses the requisite athleticism to push for a roster spot, assuming he can bulk up to an NFL sized frame.

# of WRs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 1-2 [1]

Draft Class: The WR class has tremendous talent and depth throughout both Day 2 and Day 3. I suspect there will also be more than a few UDFAs that make final rosters this season. The Packers appear likely to add at least 1 WR to the mix based on their pre-draft interest, and it wouldn’t be a complete shock if two WRs were drafted. Thus far, Gutekunst seems to focus on the strengths of each NFL Draft (2 CBs and 3 WRs last season) and takes advantage of the board to select BPA. It should also be noted that Gute seems to love the 3-Cone for the skill positions, so WR candidates will likely possess a 3C under 7 seconds (or at least near that threshold).

 

TE: Jimmy Graham, Marcedes Lewis, Robert Tonyan, Evan Baylis

Whether or not you agree with keeping Graham after a rough 2018 NFL season—he will be here and he’s the only TE on the current roster that’s absolutely guaranteed a spot on the final 53. The Lewis contract was perplexing, but he seems highly likely to stick based on the contract numbers and the familiarity with the staff. I mentioned Tonyan last June as a player I thought could stick on the final roster and I hope to see him continue to develop. Baylis lacks any quality that suggests he should be on an NFL roster and I’d be surprised if he competes for a spot on the 53.

# of TEs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 1-2 [2]

Draft Class: Both Lewis and Graham are likely in the final year of their Packers careers so replenishing the TE position should be a focus for Gutekunst this offseason. In an ideal world—Green Bay will be able to collect 2 TEs in a strong class and combine them with Tonyan to secure a future at the TE position beyond the 2019 NFL season. 

 

OL: David Bakhtiari, Corey Linsley, Billy Turner, Bryan Bulaga, Lane Taylor, Jason Spriggs, Justin McCray, Lucas Patrick, Cole Madison, Alex Light, Nico Siragusa, Adam Pankey, Anthony Coyle, Gerhard de Beer

The Packers are currently carrying 13 OL, and I’ve seen a few mock drafts in the past that speculate we’ll adding (as many as) 3 OL in what I view as an underwhelming class. I don’t understand that at all. To be clear on my view: the OL group wasn’t hurting for depth at the start of the offseason, but Gutekunst definitely needed to improve the starter-level competition (needed more a sure-thing) at OG and to solidify the depth at OT. Of the 13 OL the Packers have on the roster, at least 11 of them have the tools to stick on a final roster.

At OC: When healthy, Linsley is a Top 10 Center in the NFL. Both Patrick and McCray have taken snaps in the past and either player should be able to perform at a replacement level in the event of an injury to Linsley.

At OG: Turner was added in the offseason and should immediately slide into the RG job. I think there are two reasons the Packers haven’t explicitly stated that Turner will play at RG. Reason #1 is they believe Turney may be capable of playing RT and they want to see how Bulaga fares in TC. Reason #2 is they want to see what they have in a vastly underrated (on this forum, at least) collection of guards. Ultimately, I think Bulaga sticks on the roster and Turner lines up between Linsley and Bulaga. Lane Taylor will be given every opportunity to lock down the LG job again and needs to perform well if he wants to see the final year of his contract. Beyond the projected starters, the Packers have McCray, Patrick, Siragusa and Coyle. Each player possesses the capacity to push for a roster spot. In the case of McCray and Patrick, the Packers have two young (and most importantly cheap) players with regular season NFL experience. McCray and Patrick will both have a leg up on the competition, and both can snap the football, but ultimately nothing on the roster will be assured outside of Turner (and probably Taylor). Siragusa represents an ideal reclamation project and he possesses the tools to start in the NFL with proper development. Coyle reminds me of a poor man’s Lang, but he needs to develop an NFL body and improve that anchor if he wants to succeed inside at the NFL level. UPDATE: With the unexpected addition of Cole Madison I find the OG depth even less of a concern than previously stated. 

At OT: Bakhtiari is one of the Best LT’s in the NFL and will be the rare player to see a 3^rd contract in Green Bay, there’s really nothing else to say. Bulaga is an excellent RT when healthy, but that has often been the problem throughout his career. Bulaga represents a potential cut candidate, but I highly doubt it based on the current state of the roster. If he shows up to camp in good shape and performs well, he will be our RT. Behind the projected starters the Packers have Spriggs, Light, Pankey, and de Beer. As much as some may not want to admit it, Spriggs took a step last season as the swing tackle, and he may represent an option for life beyond Bulaga if he takes another noticeable jump this offseason. Light made the roster last season as the fleet-footed tackle and may prove to be a capable swing after a few years of development. He needs to improve his hand placement and anchor, but he has the feet to mirror defenders and it’s clear why the Packers decided to roster him. Pankey remains one of the most underrated developmental prospects on the roster. He was the only player to remain on the PS for the entire season and he possesses the ability to play RT or OG. De Beer possesses above average movement skills, but he would need to take a serious jump to compete for a roster spot. 

 

# of OLs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 1-2 [1]

Draft Class: The Packers don’t have the depth issues that will cause them to reach in the NFL Draft, and in an underwhelming class they’d best be served by waiting until value lines up with the board. Gute will likely add at least 1 OL, but I’d be surprised to see him add more than 2 OL in THIS draft class. Personally, if Packers brass felt confident about the roster and decided to go the entire draft without a selection at the OL position I’d completely trust Gute on that one (although I’m personally of the opinion that they should add some competition at tackle). 

 

DL: Kenny Clark, Mike Daniels, Muhammad Wilkerson, Dean Lowry, Tyler Lancaster, Montravius Adams, James Looney, Fadol Brown, Dean Simon, Eric Cotton

I don’t think we need to overhaul the defensive line with multiple selections. Look, I understand the contract situations, but we need to look at the group as a whole. Let’s start with Kenny Clark, who will be a Green Bay Packer for at least the next 5 years barring some freak career-ending injury. Daniels plays an important leadership role and will be on the roster for the 2019 season, but some mystery surrounds what happens beyond that. Market valuation will play a large role on whether Daniels returns to the team in 2020. Wilkerson seems highly likely (I’d wager better than 50% chance) to return to Green Bay and provides the Packers with another option they can rotate into the game. Lowry is probably in his final year in Green Bay, and will likely seek greener pastures elsewhere in 2020. Outside of Clark, Lancaster is the other player that should be on the roster beyond the 2019 season. Y’all straight up confuse me at times—this forum had a weird obsession with highly flawed UDFAs such as Gunter and Brice (two players I was not a fan of), but then we get Lancaster and seemingly no one is excited about him. Unless he significantly regresses Lancaster will play out the entirety of his rookie contract (plus a likely RFA tender) in Green Bay. Adams didn’t see the field often last year, but he showed more than a few good things when he finally got snaps. I’m optimistic that Adams can develop into a valuable rotational player. Looney remains a developmental player that needs to improve that frame and continue to develop as a pass rusher to push for a roster spot. Simon was a small school player that has regular season experience with the Jets. He won’t offer much pass rush, but he’s hard to move in the run game and he offers adequate depth if Lancaster or Clark were to suffer an injury. Brown needs to continue to develop that body and refine that pass rush, but he could definitely push for a roster spot if he shows well in camp. I know absolutely nothing about Cotton so I don’t want to speculate.

# of DLs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 0-2 [1]

Draft Class: The class contains some high-end talent and a few other interesting prospects in the Top 80, but then there’s a distinct lack of volume of quality prospects compared to other years, specifically players that fit our defense. I think Gute either adds a DL in the first two days or he waits until later on Day 3 to add to the group. Anything is possible, but if we re-sign Wilkerson then I can’t see Gute adding more than 1 DL to the roster via the draft.

 

EDGE: Preston Smith, Za’Darius Smith, Kyler Fackrell, Reggie Gilbert, Kendall Donnerson

Gutekunst addressed the position group aggressively in FA, but I suspect he’s far from done with the overhaul. I loved Preston Smith as a FA and I believe there’s a strong chance he will end up the most impactful player from the 2019 FA class over the next few years. I personally thought we overpaid for Za’Darius Smith, but I’m excited to see how Pettine utilizes him to create mismatches and (hopefully) produce a lot of pressure both inside and outside. To say Fackrell made a massive jump last year would be an understatement. As co-chair of the Fackrell Fan Club with @CWood21 it was nice to see Fackrell develop into the player we both felt he could be on Draft Day. However, that being said—the overall pressure numbers suggest that Fackrell could be a regression candidate—so he needs to continue that development to ensure he doesn’t relapse before he hits FA. Either way, Fackrell will likely be gone at the end of the season considering GB’s salary cap situation in 2020 combined with his advanced age. Gilbert is a solid player at the end of the roster that contributes on STs. I’m not sure he’ll ever develop into anything worthwhile, but you could do far worse at #5 or #6 on the depth chart. Gilbert will definitely contend for a roster spot, and in all likelihood will secure a spot on the final 53 for a second consecutive season. Donnerson is a wildcard athlete that’s a bit too stiff for my liking.

# of EDGEs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 1-3 [2]

Draft Class: Perhaps the strongest positional group—the EDGE class contains talent at each stage of the NFL draft. There’s a plethora of high-end talent available in the Top 50, but we shouldn’t underestimate the potential talent that will be available from the End of Day 2 to the Middle of Day 3. If the 2018 draft is any indication, I’d expect Gutekunst to add at least 2 EDGE prospects and I wouldn’t rule out the possibility of him allocating 3 selections to the position (similar to the approach with WR last year). Fackrell is likely in his last year in GB and if Za’Darius is used inside in pressure situations (as many of us expect) then there will be many snaps available as soon as next year.

 

ILB: Blake Martinez, Oren Burks, Josh Jones, James Crawford, Brady Sheldon

Martinez represents an important cog on defense, but the real question is how much you are willing to pay that type of player? Martinez doesn’t have elite athleticism (or really any elite qualities) and he can’t do everything in coverage you’d like, but he has undoubtedly been a steady, dependable player at an above average level for a defense that’s lacked both accountability and durability in recent years. After a slow start—Burks was starting to show why the Packers spent a 3^rd RD pick on him last year before he suffered a shoulder injury in preseason that seemed to derail his development. Jones is a player that belongs near the line of scrimmage, and it seems the Packers finally figured that out during his 2^nd NFL season. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Packers outright move him to linebacker and he should definitely receive an opportunity to compete for serious snaps in TC. Crawford was special teams stud that barely saw the field. Sheldon was a collegiate EDGE that has bounced around the NFL, but based on his current listed weight and athleticism I’d expect him to compete at LB.

# of LBs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 1-2 [1]

Draft Class: My opinion has evolved over the last few months on the strength of the class in terms of LBs. Initially, I thought the class was lacking at nearly every level of the draft, but after further investigation I do think there will be quality players available on Day 3. Outside of the Top 2 LBs the draft suffers from a severe lack of talent with Day 2 grades. On Day 3, there’s a number of prospects that range from productive and less athletic than you’d like to the athletes that lack consistent collegiate production. I’d expect Gute to add at least 1 LB—maybe more—but that will depend heavily on the FO’s evaluation of Burks and Jones as players. 

 

CB: Jaire Alexander, Kevin King, Josh Jackson, Tony Brown, Dexter McDonald, Tramon Williams, Will Redmond, Natrell Jamerson

Alexander seemingly exceeded (or perhaps met if you have high standards) every expectation last season. It appears that we drafted an absolute stud and barring a significant regression Alexander looks to be a future Pro Bowler and perhaps even an All-Pro. King might have just as much potential (albeit different styles) as Alexander if he could only stay healthy. One has to hope that King can stay healthy and make that 3^rd year jump that Fackrell recently experienced. If both can stay healthy in 2019—the Packers could have their first Top 10 CB duo in recent memory. The CB group contains just as much potential as questions. Jackson experienced an uneven rookie year, but that’s no reason to panic about his long-term potential. I was not a Jackson fan last season as I thought he lacked the requisite athleticism to return value on his draft capital, but he definitely flashed more than I anticipated. Most importantly, Jackson was able to keep himself close in coverage, and that was a pleasant surprise for a player that I thought lacked the ability to consistently play in a WRs hip pocket. Brown is a player that I liked last year in the late rounds. I’d argue the Packers are quite high on Brown due to the fact he made a number of boneheaded plays last season and was never released. That shows me Gutekunst believes Brown is a player that should be developed and I completely agree. Ideally, Brown would be no higher than #4 entering the season, but he definitely has the potential to soak up snaps if he can adjust to the mental aspect of the NFL game. McDonald was someone I added in FA and previously addressed. He’s a tremendous athlete that can be a feisty press-man corner when provided the opportunity. He possesses good COD ability for his size, but also has proven heady enough to show well in off-man and zone coverage during his limited NFL experience. To be completely honest, I don’t understand how Tramon has managed to retain a roster spot (at his current salary). I’d be fine with Tramon at a reduced rate, but it seems that Gute wants to continue forward with a bloated contract. Tramon can provide value as a 3^rd or 4^th CB, but he’s not a starter anymore and he was downright awful at times at CB. He was even worse at safety and if he’s the plan for regular season opposite Amos we’re in serious trouble. Redmond was underrated prospect that I really liked a few years ago, but he faces an uphill battle for a roster spot. He has the movement skills to mirror opposing WRs and the agility to play in the slot if asked to do so. Jamerson is a tweener at the NFL level, and started his career as a safety. He has the raw athleticism to develop into a weapon on specials, but I’m not sure he possesses the COD skills to ever be anything more than average in coverage.

# of CBs in the 2019 NFL Draft: 0-2 [1]

Draft Class: There’s no two ways about—CB is one of the weakest positions in the draft class. From top to bottom there simply isn’t enough talent at any level of the draft especially for a passing league such as the NFL. Players that would typically be drafted at the end of Day 2/start of Day 3 will likely be considered at the end of Day 1/ start of Day 2. On Day 3, if you’re looking at prospects that truly have NFL ability you will have be willing to compromise one of the following: A) health/injury history, B) competition level, or C) size. It’s hard to see a path where Gute drafts more than 1 CB in THIS draft unless everything perfectly lines up for them with two prospects they adore (likely both would be have to be on Day 3).

 

S: Adrian Amos, Tre Boston, Josh Jones, Raven Greene, Jason Thompson, Tray Matthews

Gute penned Amos at the beginning of FA and that was a good start, but the position remains far from adequately addressed. Amos should provide a steady presence on the back-end that’s desperately needed in a young, inexperienced secondary. Amos has some flexibility to play either safety position, but in an ideal world he would be paired with a rangier/ball hawk type safety. Enter Boston, who still needs to find a home. Boston might have a few personality quirks that have prevented him from signing thus far, but hopefully the Packers feel confident enough with Amos in-house to add another veteran to the mix. I liked Boston at UNC, but my biggest concern was whether the body could hold up. To his credit, Boston has developed that body since entering the league to the point where he can withstand a full NFL season of punishment. Greene is a UDFA that I’m sure the Packers FO have high hopes for, but in an ideal world he really shouldn’t be counted on as anything more than #4 on the depth chart. Greene displayed good range in limited snaps, but he also suffered from a number of mental mistakes that aren’t uncommon for late RD rookies and UDFAs. He’s another UDFA (along with Lancaster) that has the ability to stick on the roster long enough to be tendered as an RFA. Thompson is a workout warrior that lacks the overall feel for the position, but he could push for a roster spot if he can contribute on special teams—and that might bide him enough time to develop on defense. Matthews represents an interesting reclamation project that has a history of shoulder issues. He’s strong in run support, but has struggled in the past in coverage. If he shows well in camp, Matthews might be able to push for a SS spot behind Amos & Co.—but it looks to be an uphill battle.

# of Ss in the 2019 NFL Draft: 1-2 [1.5]

Draft Class: The safety class represents one of the stronger positions in the draft class. It doesn’t take much imagination to see a situation where Gutekunst makes two selections at the position. However, there are two important considerations with regard to the safety position. First, will they sign a veteran FA before the draft? I think that's a more likely scenario than many would like to admit. Second, when you get to Day 3 of the draft how many of the prospects are going to represent a significant improvement over what we have in Greene (assuming we already having Amos + 2 others) penciled in at the position? Overall, I’d expect the Packers to add to the safety position at some point during the first two days of the draft. The only questions in my mind are how early, and who will that player be?

 

The Draft

1^st Round (1.12) Brian Burns (Florida State)

NFL Comparison: Vic Beasley (with some Aldon Smith-esque traits)

H: 6046 W: 249 40: 4.53 (10: 1.54) VJ: 36” BJ: 129” 3C: 7.01

Generally speaking, I’m going to spend more time on the late round selections than the players selected at the top of the draft. As far as the selection at #12, to me (and it seems like many others) Burns feels like the most likely target for Green Bay at the top of Round 1. After a highly explosive Pro Day I don’t think Oliver lasts until #12 and I think it’s clear from the offseason blueprint that Gutekunst values the EDGE position tremendously. Burns is a better prospect than Beasley, but the similarities are apparent. Burns possesses a terrific first step and that explosion allows him to regularly catch blockers off balance. Another aspect I personally value in my pass rushers is bend, and Burns may have more bend than any other pass rusher in the draft. The flexibility around the corner is specifically where I see a little Aldon Smith to his game. Overall, Burns isn’t a perfect prospect and will need to prove he can keep the weight on at the NFL level, but he undoubtedly possesses one of the highest ceilings of any prospect in the NFL draft.

 

 

Brian Burns 2018 Highlights

Burns vs. Miami

Burns vs. Virginia Tech

 

1^st Round (1.30) Nasir Adderley (Delaware)

NFL Comparison: Earl Thomas

H: 5116 W: 203 40: 4.48e VJ: 38”BJ: 129” BP: 19

I’ve seen some recent mocks where people take Adderley at #44, but I just don’t believe that will happen even with a lack of complete PD numbers. If you want Adderley in this draft, I think you’ll need to take him at 30 or move up in the 2^nd RD (from 44) to take him. I just can’t see a player this talented falling out of the Top 40 (barring some unforeseen circumstances) despite the fact he played in the FCS. Adderley plays (if he were healthy enough to run) in the low to mid 4.4s. He might be a half step slower than Thomas when he entered the league, but he demonstrated elite range at the FCS level. I fully believe that Adderely possesses both the physical ability and instincts to make a (rare) smooth transition from the FCS to the NFL. He demonstrates terrific ball skills and has a competitive streak that we could use on the back-end of the defense. For his size, Adderley is a surprisingly willing tackler and generally demonstrates good form. He awarded the “C” for captain of the North Squad at the Senior Bowl and that type of leadership and accountability would be another welcome Day 1 quality on defense. If Adderley played at a larger school, I honestly think he’d be considered a Top 15 prospect in the draft class. It also doesn’t hurt that Nasir is related to (cousin of) Herb Adderley, one of the best (if not, the best) CBs in the 1960s with the Green Bay Packers.

 

 

Nasir Adderley 2018 Highlights

Adderley vs NDSU

Adderley vs. Lafayette

 

*TRADE* I’ve talked extensively with @JBURGE and we both seem to be of the opinion that Green Bay will likely trade down at some point on Day 1 or Day 2.

Gutekunst sees an opportunity to trade down and gain draft capital after the Patriots call about moving up for a WR. Green Bay sends #44 (460 pts) to New England for #56 (340 pts), #97 (112 pts) and #134 (38.5 pts).

 

2^nd Round (2.56) Jace Sternberger (Texas A&M)

NFL Comparison: Todd Heap

H: 6040 W: 251 40: 4.75 VJ: 31” BJ: 113” SS: 4.31 3C: 7.19 BP: 17

When people knock Sternberger for his perceived lack of athleticism I think they’re really missing the point of what makes him such a threat. Sternberger is very SMOOTH, and that’s why (at least to me) he appears to play at least a full step faster than he timed. Before the catch—JS’s movement skills are reminiscent of Zach Ertz (a Top 3 TE in the NFL who ran a 4.76)—the way he flows seamlessly through his routes. The overall comparison to Ertz doesn’t work because of what he offers after the catch. JS is not only a crafty route runner, but he uses those smooth, purposeful movements to make players miss and isn’t afraid to run through a defender if they hesitate. He was the #1 TE in the nation last season in yards after the catch per reception (8.3 yards). As a blocker, Sternberger leaves something to be desired, but he demonstrates a willingness to block and should develop into a functional blocker at the NFL level. However, Sternberger will earn his bread as a weapon for Rodgers—he appears to already possess a skillset that has matured enough to be a Year 1 contributor as a pass catcher. I’ve seen Sternberger mocked in the 3^rd RD or later in a few places, but I just think it will be against all odds if Sternberger falls out of the Top 64 with such a polished, and well-rounded skillset. In my book, he could come off the board as early as TE3 and shouldn’t be drafted any later than TE5.

 

 

Jace Sternberger 2018 Highlights

Sternberger vs Kentucky

Sternberger vs Ole Miss

 

3^rd Round (3.75) Christian Miller (Alabama)

NFL Comparison: Danielle Hunter

H: 6033 W: 247 40: N/A VJ: 38.5” BJ: 118” (35.125" arms)

Now, we’re finally getting into uncharted territory. I understand that the EDGE class might be the strongest position group in the NFL Draft, but what I can’t understand is why Christian Miller isn’t getting any love (especially on here). Remember when I said that I like bendy EDGE prospects, well Miller has some of the best bend (I’d confidently say Top 5) in the entire class. He’s been in my Top 8 EDGE defenders for what seems like forever and I can’t figure out why he hasn’t been treated the same way by the majority draft community (To be fair, there are handful of people—especially those who have opinions I value that think he has a shot to sneak into the Top 50). Two big reasons most of you probably haven’t heard of him: 1) He played for an impossibly deep Alabama squad and made his 1^st career start in Week 4 of 2018 (his senior year)—AND—2) He hasn’t been able to fully participate in the pre-draft process (only VJ AND BJ at the NFL Combine). Despite all of that—Miller is an ascending player that accumulated 8.5 sacks, 11.5 TFLs and 12 QB hurries in limited snaps. For a player that doesn’t have a ton of experience, Miller displays a strong, varied array of pass rush moves that should allow him to succeed right away as sub-package pass rusher. His 38.5” vertical supports the explosiveness he consistently demonstrates in-game especially when he's allowed to pin his ears back. I suspect that Miller would time in the high 4.6s in the 40 yard dash, but I specifically think he’d put up an impressive 10 yard split with the way he moves over short distances. As @JBURGE knows, Miller represents one of “my guys”, and I suspect he will have a strong NFL career despite limited opportunities in college. In terms of play style, Miller reminds me of Danielle Hunter, as both were raw and underutilized at the college level. Like Hunter, Miller also demonstrates success against the run and has the frame to add 10+ lbs at the NFL level. Miller’s eventual play weight should be 255-265lbs once he’s had time in an NFL program. Gutekunst demonstrated the willingness to take advantage of the strength of a draft class in 2018, and that’s why I could see him making a double dip at the EDGE position early.

 

 

 

Christian Miller 2018 Highlights

Miller vs Ole Miss

 

3^rd Round (3.97) Renell Wren (Arizona State)

NFL Comparison: Akiem Hicks

H: 6044 W: 315 40: 5.01 VJ: 32.0” BJ: 118” SS: 4.53 3C: 7.65 BP:30

I typically avoid the developmental selections especially in the first two days, but after the pre-draft process (especially his performance at the Senior Bowl) it’s proven difficult to avoid my mind wandering around with the notion of a potential duo consisting of Kenny Clark and Renell Wren. Wren is a player that’s long on physical talent, but short on collegiate production. Production issues were not entirely Wren’s fault, he was (at least partially) a victim of circumstance as Arizona State misused him as a true nose tackle. The first thing you’ll notice with Wren is an explosive first step that rivals any DL in the draft class. The main problem was that as a true nose in college, Wren wasn’t afforded the opportunity to further develop his pass rush arsenal. This is the type of prospect you entrust to Jerry Montgomery (who the Packers seem to hold in very high regard) and see what he can pull out of Wren. Wren is stout at the POA and routinely displays the ability to stack up blockers at the line of scrimmage. Wren may possess all the physical traits reminiscent of Akiem Hicks, but Montgomery will need to help him develop a pass rush arsenal that consists of a stronger collection of initial moves and counters that are effective beyond his raw speed and power. However, Wren represents a giant piece of clay that possesses a number of traits to suggest he can develop into the best version of himself. Wren is a consistently active defender that possesses elite physical traits, and by most accounts is a hard worker that wants to be great. After an overwhelmingly positive performance at the Senior Bowl, Wren likely solidified himself as a Top 100 selection.

 

 

 

Wren vs Michigan St

Wren vs Oregon

 

4^th Round (4.114) Max Scharping (Northern Illinois)

NFL Comparison: David Stewart

H: 6057 W: 327 VJ: 28” BJ: 108” SS: 4.69 3C: 7.77 BP: 28

A player that spent his high school career in the shadow of Lambeau Field returns to Green Bay to play for the Packers—that’d make a pretty cool story--wouldn’t it? All things considered, the Scharping selection here has absolutely nothing to do with an origin story. To me, Scharping screams a Packers OL pick, perhaps more than almost any other OL prospect in the draft class. A left tackle at Northern Illinois, I think that Scharping’s most likely destination in the NFL will be RT. I’m not sure if Scharping has the functional athleticism to be a LT in the NFL, but I think he has the potential to be a high-end starter at RT where he won’t have to consistently face NFL speed rushers. Brian Burns (an FSU player, we’re talking about here) tabbed Scharping as the most difficult matchup he faced all season. Scharping moves extremely well in pass protection and maintains balance with a solid base and short, efficient movements. At his size and has the frame to become a bully in the run game, but he requires further development at the NFL level and needs to sustain his run blocks. Overall—Scharping is a heady, athletic right tackle prospect that knows how to get it done in pass protection, even if his feet aren't always pretty (pass-blocking efficiency has been among the highest in the FBS among tackles for 3 straight years). Scharping has the ability and size to develop as a run blocker. He reminds me of unheralded Titans tackle David Stewart (also a 4^th RD pick) who was among the best at his position throughout his career, but never received enough recognition (Only 2^nd Team All-Pro in 2008). The combination of movement skills, intelligence, and raw talent in pass protection should make Scharping a likely target for Green Bay. If someone argued that he sneaks into the end of Day 2, I wouldn’t put up much of a fight. He’s one of the more underrated OL prospects in the entire class in my opinion as long as you trust your coaching staff can clean up his footwork.

 

 

Scharping vs Utah (#73)

Scharping NFL Combine Workout

 

4^th Round (4.118) Blake Cashman (Minnesota)

NFL Comparison: Sean Lee

H: 6011 W: 237 40: 4.50 VJ: 37.5” BJ: 124” SS: 4.12 3C: 6.95 BP: 18

Cashman had a terrific NFL Combine that forced many to take a second look. He had an interesting and winding career to arrive to where he has in the draft process. Despite being an all-state linebacker at Eden Prairie, a Minnesota high school football powerhouse, he didn’t create much interest as a recruit. Cashman spurned interest from North Dakota and walked on at nearby Minnesota and began to work his way up from the bottom. Cashman had success at Minnesota as early as his sophomore (and was finally put on scholarship at the end of that year), but then regressed the following year due to injury. He returned to form as a senior, and put together an extremely underrated season as he patrolled the middle of the field for Minnesota. Cashman uses his speed (4.50 at Combine) and instincts to fill gaps in the run game. He had more than few plays last season where he looked like a high Day 2 player, and he possesses both the athleticism and bend to get home when asked to rush the passer. Cashman has safety hips (he played some CB in addition to LB in high school) and drops into coverage with ease. He possesses the ability to match-up with TEs in man coverage and flows smoothly across the field to make plays. There are a few reasons Cashman should be available in the 4^th round. First, Cashman doesn’t always trust his reads and can be a step slow to diagnose especially vs. the pass. Second, Cashman is a one-year starter at a position where experience can often dictate NFL success. Third, Cashman has struggled with shoulder issues, and sat out of Minnesota’s bowl game to allow his shoulders time to heal before the pre-draft process. Cashman met with 26 teams at the NFL Combine and the Packers seem to be a likely match based on the type of players they’ve drafted in the past (Martinez, Ryan etc.).  

 

 

 

Blake Cashman 2018 Highlights

Cashman vs Ohio State

Cashman vs Northwestern

 

*TRADE*

Gutekunst gets a call from Gettleman (Giants have three 5^th RD picks) and he’s looking to move back into the 4^th because they had two players, they wanted to take at #132. Green Bay sends #134 (38.5 pts) and #185 (19 pts) to New York (Giants) for #142 (34.5 pts), and #143 (34 pts).

 

5^th Round (5.142) Alexander Mattison (Boise State)

NFL Comparison: Kareem Hunt/Jay Ajayi Hybrid

H: 5105 W: 221 40: 4.52-4.57 [PD] VJ: 35” BJ: 127” SS: 4.29 3C: 7.13 BP: 22

As @JBURGE can attest--I’ve been aboard (and could very well be the honorary conductor of) the Mattison train for well over a year. Unfortunately, Mattison suffered a leg injury that noticeably zapped his explosion in the early part of the 2018 season, and I’m not sure he ever fully recovered. Because of that—I linked his 2017 highlights, which are probably more indicative of his ability than almost anything from 2018. Mattison is an extremely well-rounded RB that possesses the body, production and overall skillset to be a three-down RB in the NFL. When I look at RBs, I’m usually most interested in how they test in the measurements of explosion because I want to know what they can accomplish (and how quickly) around the LOS. Mattison had excellent jumps of 35.0” (VJ) and 127” (BJ), which are indicative of the way he moves (when healthy) immediately after he receives a hand-off. I have no idea what happened in the 40 at the NFL Combine (it appeared to me that he didn’t push himself entirely), but I was extremely confused by that result. That confusion was heavily alleviated when Mattison ran a 4.52 to 4.57 in front of all 32 NFL teams at the BSU Pro Day (I guess sometimes you just have bad days). Mattison plays like a RB that possesses mid 4.5 speed, and he typically has enough juice to beat defenders over intermediate distances (up to 40/50 yards). As a runner, Mattison possesses borderline elite balance (not quite Hunt, but definitely reminiscent of him at times), and runs with a combination of power behind his pads (akin to Ajayi). Mattison is a decisive, no-nonsense runner that will find a crease and quickly exploit that lane. With that being said—Mattison can make you miss and possesses the awareness to hurdle defenders when presented the opportunity (not ideal in the NFL, but indicative of his athleticism). As a receiver, Mattison was completely underutilized at BSU, and he’s probably one of the best pass-catching RBs in the draft despite his size. He owns a set of very soft hands and doesn’t fight the ball. Once he’s made the reception, Mattison seamlessly transitions into a ball carrier and moves up-field with urgency. To clarify my comp, in terms of lateral movement and balance he reminds me of Hunt, in terms of running style and toughness he reminds me of Ajayi. In terms of advanced stats, Mattison forced the 3^rd most tackles, had the 3^rd most 10-yard runs, and the 3^rd most 20-yard runsof all draft eligible RBs in 2018—all on a bad wheel (and behind a run blocking OL that left a lot to be desired more often than not). Mattison should be drafted early-mid Day 3, but as we’ve learned in the past you can find often find eventual starters at that stage of the draft.

 

 

 

 

Alexander Mattison 2017 Highlights

Mattison vs SDSU (2017)

Mattison vs Fresno State (2018 MWC Championship)

 

5^th Round (5.143) Anthony Ratliff-Williams (North Carolina)

NFL Comparison: Chris Godwin

H: 6000 W: 205 40: 4.46 VJ: 35” BP:14

Ratliff-Williams probably didn’t do himself any favors by declaring early. Smart money says he should’ve waited for next years class, but it would be understandable if he wanted to escape the QB hellscape that has plagued UNC. I believe that Ratliff-Williams (ARW) will be on the radar for Green Bay because I honestly believe the smoke that we had interest in Cordarrelle Patterson. What can Ratliff-Williams offer Green Bay? Let’s start with the most obvious contribution and then work our way up from there. Ratliff-Williams was 2^nd in the NCAA in kickoff return yardage during his sophomore season. He immediately provides a viable return option on both kickoff and punt returns for a team that has lacked a consistent returner following the departure of Hyde. As a WR (stylistically), Ratliff-Williams reminds me of Chris Godwin, but still he has ways to go in terms of route running before that can represent a true comparison. ARW needs to consistently run routes with purpose, and I caught more than few instances of rounding off routes, which won’t work for him against NFL CBs (part of that may have been QB play). However, there’s a legitimate reason for the unrefined route running skills, as ARW was the #1 QB recruit in the state of North Carolina coming out of high school. He switched to WR in 2016 and caught just 3 passes before he became more involved in the 2017 UNC offense. By the end of the 2018, Ratliff-Williams had established himself as the #1 WR and averaged 16.4 yards per catch despite abysmal QB play. In 2018, UNC also used ARW as runner in the wildcat formations and he was able to accumulate 7.5 yards per carry on limited rush attempts. As stated previously—ARW is still developing as a route runner, but there are a number of traits that suggest he has a fairly high ceiling in that regard. First, in terms of agility—ARW displays above average agility and moves efficiently over short areas. While I wouldn’t categorize him as overly explosive, he uses a combination of subtle body movements, smooth hips and quick feet to make defenders miss. He’s no slouch in terms of speed, but he plays in the mid-high 4.4s and like Godwin relies more on quickness/short area movements than long speed. Another skill ARW had many opportunities to feature at UNC was the ability to win the contested catch. I literally lost track of the number of times ARW had a step on the defender—just so he had to slow and return to an under-thrown ball. Ratliff-Williams displays extremely strong hands and has a penchant for the ridiculous contested catches that Godwin has become known for in the NFL. ARW will always compete for the ball and plays with a certain swagger/alpha mentality that I love to see in WRs—IF the ball is thrown to him, he treats it as HIS ball. Overall, Ratliff-Williams may have the ability to play outside in the NFL with further development, but like Godwin I think he’d be best suited operating out of the slot. ARW provides LaFleur with a bigger body slot WR (6’/205lbs) that can return kicks and punts, and has the potential to develop into a solid chess piece that can run, catch, and perhaps even pass the ball (something he also did in college). I’ve seen a few people that have assigned Ratliff-Williams the title of “Discount Deebo”, but you can be the judge of that. Below are two examples of ARW as a KR and two examples of ARW as a WR. 

 

 

 

 

Anthony Ratliff-Williams 2018 Highlights

Anthony Ratliff-Williams 2017 Highlights

Ratliff-Williams vs Georgia Tech

Ratliff-Williams vs Duke

 

5^th Round (5.150) Mark Fields (Clemson)  

NFL Comparison: Kenny Moore

H: 5097 W: 192 40: 4.37 VJ: 31.5” BJ: 120” BP: 18

Remember when I said you’d probably have to compromise on Day 3 at CB? Well—I went with the short and smooth CB that was close in size to Jaire Alexander (5102/196 vs. 5097/192). Fields got lost in the shuffle at Clemson and played less than 1000 snaps in his college career. However, he flashed when he played and has demonstrated the skillset to suggests he can be a valuable contributor in the NFL. In terms of play style, Fields reminds me of Colts CB Kenny Moore—a player that lead an underrated defense in CB snaps last season. Gutekunst has displayed an affinity for skill players that move efficiently and that describes Fields movement ability well. Fields has loose hips and quick feet that allow him to move suddenly over short areas. He also possesses the long speed (4.37) to carry WRs down the field and remain in the hip pocket. He’s a willing tackler, but doesn’t possess always possess much pop behind his pads. However, I’d consider Fields a sure tackler and he certainly won’t back down if someone enters his zone. The biggest disparity between Fields and a player like Alexander would be the ball skills. Fields doesn’t have a ton of ball production and needs to be more consistent with turning his head to locate the football (with his back to the QB). That being said—Fields will usually be close enough to the WR to make a play and the ball, and that’s why he’s been able to accumulate PBUs despite a lack of high-end ball skills. Finally, the most exciting quality about Fields might simply be the competitiveness and energy level he brings to every game. Just by watching Fields—you can tell that he loves football and that he’ll give you everything he’s got.

 

 

 

Mark Fields Career Highlights

 

6^th Round (6.194) Alize Mack (Notre Dame)   

NFL Comparison: Chris Herndon

H: 6040 W: 249 40: 4.70 VJ: 36” BJ: 120” SS: 4.34 3C: 7.27 BP: 22

Mack has become a forgotten man in this TE-heavy draft class. One of the most highly touted tight ends in the 2015 recruiting class, Mack simply never lived up to expectations at Notre Dame.  Mack immediately ran into a number of hurdles that hampered his development at the collegiate level, which included an academic suspension and pair of concussions. Mack possesses all of the physical attributes to be an effective pass catcher at the next level, but he often struggles with mental lapses at the catch-point. To clarify, on some plays Mack can appear to have the best combination of hands and body control of almost any TE in the class, and then on other plays he simply fails to secure the catch. Mack is a smooth route runner when asked to operate out of the slot, and he possesses the ability to turn defenders around. Some of the problems associated with Mack’s production may be attributed to uneven QB play at Notre Dame, but there are other things that he needs to personally own and work to improve on. Mack may high point the ball as well as any tight end in the NFL Draft, but he needs to show more desire and creativity as a ball carrier. Right now, Mack’s modus operandi as a ball carrier is to beat a defender with straight-line speed (when provided sufficient cushion at the catch-point) or (if no space present) he will often attempt to run through the defender. However, he has shown flashes of being able to circumvent defenders, but the primary problem appears to be the lack of a decisive plan once Mack becomes a ball carrier. As blocker, Mack has a long way to go, but he finally began to show some desire and flashes in is final year at Notre Dame. Mack has some maturity issues, and if he didn’t have an uncanny similarity to Herndon in terms of style, I may have assigned him an NFL comp of Andrew Quarless with plus body control. Mack isn’t a perfect prospect and is admittedly a low-floor/high-ceiling type, but the potential here is tremendous and I’d argue perhaps the most likely outcome for Mack is Quarless-type #2 TE that can be paired with Sternberger and Tonyan to help secure a future for the TE position.

 

 

Alize Mack Career Highlights

Mack vs Virginia Tech

Mack vs Boston College (2017)

 

7^th Round (7.226) Jon’Vea Johnson (Toledo)   

NFL Comparison: Johnny Knox

H: 5110 W: 191 40: 4.39 VJ: 35” BJ: 128” SS: 4.17 3C: 6.68 BP: 12

Toledo will (should) have 3 WRs drafted this year. Of all the Toledo WRs (Cody, Jon’Vea, and Diontae)—Jon’Vea had become the forgotten man until an electric Pro Day seemingly revived his draft stock. Jon’Vea has always displayed talent, but the problem at Toledo was that he was always anchored to a timeshare. I believe that Johnson has never been afforded the opportunity to put his talent on full display. In terms of career receiving TDs, Jon’Vea is tied for 6^th in the WR class (with 25 TDs), and that reflects the uncanny ability he has to create yards and find the endzone. Johnson isn’t a similar prospect to Ratliff-Williams, he doesn’t have the same size, but he may have more versatility as a WR in the NFL. At Toledo, Johnson was deep threat that averaged 20.6 yards per reception in his final season. I would argue that Jon’Vea should have been used more often by Toledo on both punt and kick returns due to the skill-set, but that’s a hard sell with Diontae Johnson also present. Despite the lack of experience, I think Jon’Vea possesses the natural ability to be a tremendous returner if given the opportunity. As a WR, the first thing that jumps out when watching Johnson is the combination of speed and quickness. Johnson can explode off the line and could simply outrun the CBs he faced in the MAC. The 40 time suggests that he may possess the ability to do the same with NFL CBs. The second trait that jumps out about Jon’Vea is how efficiently he transitions from receiver to ball carrier. Once he’s secured the ball he doesn’t waste any movement and will immediately turn upfield to make the first defender miss. Jon’Vea has the speed and route-running ability to develop into a weapon on the outside, but his YAC ability may ultimately lead him into a slot role where he can beat coverage with a combination of smooth routes and deep speed. As a prospect, Jon’Vea looks like a clone of Johnny Knox to me. Many people forget how promising Knox was as a 5^th Round DP before he suffered a career ending spinal injury. Johnson is another Day 3 prospect that possess the ability to line up across the formation, and that can use his combination of elite speed and agility (Remember how much Gute loves the 3C at skill positions) to punish a defense.

 

 

 

Jon'Vea Johnson 2017 Highlights

Johnson vs Central Michigan

Johnson vs Akron (2017)

 

That's it for the mock draft. 

Thanks for reading, and let me know what you guys think. 

 

 

[festiveonion]

Thanks for the hard work you put in! 

Burns seems the runaway favorite if we stay at 12. Smarter people than me have already said plenty about him. 
Think we take whoever is falling at 30 and could do a lot worse than Adderley, and tho I'm partial to him a little later this seems like a fair slot for him. Shouldn't surprise anyone to see him go mid-late 20's. 

Love Milller and the A&M TE. Love addressing depth of this class early and often. 
Fingers are crossed that you're right and addressing strength of the draft class is Gute's forte and not just happenstance. But mom always taught me that twice is coincidence and thrice is... a third thing... so I'll hold my tongue till I see it again. We're lucky our need meets this class' depth in several ways. 

I'm an ASU guy so I'll withhold bias on #95.

Sharping screams GB. Ratliff-Williams seems like someone who could fit the mold, given Gute's investment into specialists. He'd also likely mean the end of Davis and I'm in favor of going young there  - especially for a prospect with more upside at WR. Also like WR in that slot. Think Gute sticks with the sophomores and addresses that position day 3 unless a talent is falling at the top of the 2nd/3rd. 

Don't really see it with Cashman but maybe that means I didn't look in the right places. I've been wrong before. 
Likewise I'll trust you on Mattison, who I haven't really looked at much. Like his fit with Jones/Will if he is what you says he is.  

Simply don't see how anyone could be upset with this scenario. Needs met. Realistic. Refreshing to see some new faces.
Well done.

[Leader]

Well done.

[Pilprin]

Great job in selecting players...I like the way that you addressed most issues. I would be surprised to see GB select more than 9-10 players...but I could be wrong. I see them moving up strategically after round 1 to target players. Would not be surprised to see two 1's and two 2's when it is all said and done. Definately see us drafting at 15-17 instead of 12....but who knows. Thanks fo the work...this had to take hours to compile.

[AlexGreen#20]

Anybody else worried about taking a speed rusher at 12 with a slower than 7.00 second 3-cone? I know it's by .01 seconds, but that kinda scares me. I like my speed rushers to be more in that 6.8 range? The film is great no doubt, it just kinda gives me pause. I know that correlation isn't nearly as strong as we previously believed, but it's still interesting.

Safety is such a tough position to judge. Whatever ends up happening with Adderley will happen. I can't say I'd be happy or pissed either way. I'm leaning negative just on the positional value, but like I said, I have no barometer. 

I do not like the thought of drafting a move-TE with a 4.75 40 time. Pretty much all the studs are faster than that. I also am a little scared when a TEs best trait is catching the ball contested. That usually means he's not getting open. 

Miller and Wren both have some bust potential, but both also have some very real upside. At that point in the draft I applaud you for taking the shot.

Scharping will go either late 1st or early 2nd is a draft prediction of mine. Just not seeing how he doesn't make it there. Guys with starting LT upside don't last that long. May even be the pick at 30. 

Cashman is another good lottery ticket purchase. 

I have no opinions on the midround RBs (Mattison) other than that guy does not look like a 4.5 back on tape even on the highlights that I saw. Doesn't mean he can't be a player, just not seeing that same upside.

ARW is everything I hate about Trevor Davis. Not sure I wouldn't just rather resign Davis and go in a different direction with that pick.

Hard for me to get down on a guy taken in the 6th round, but Fields is both short and has issues with his turnover. Not for me.

Mack can play a little bit, no doubt about that, but that dude is soft apparently. More athlete than football player at this point. Interviews will matter a lot for him. 

Receiving coaches gonna be spending a lot of time working on the hands of this WR group between Moore, Johnson, and the two rookies who actually performed last year. Johnson and ARW are redundant in my book, but again it's a late round lottery ticket. If Johnson is going here, go get the kicker instead of ARW.

 

 

[OneTwoSixFive]

The philosohy of taking an edge guy later in the draft is an attractive one, at least it is this year, which is unusually good there. I tried a Fanspeak draft today (9 Apr. Steve, Steve, Classic), with the specific aim of taking Christian Miller. I got him in the third  and I even got Anthony Nelson with the second 4th round pick, as well. Taking these guys later, allowed early picks of OT J.Taylor, DL Simmons, FS Adderley and TE Sternberger (with the first round 4 pick). 

In the real world I don't expect Sternberger to go that late, and Adderley probably won't last to #44 either. I wouldn't mind paying a bit to move up in round two for Adderley (as @Cadmus suggested would be needed). You could pay for the cost of that, by dropping down a few slots at #12 and taking OT Dillard instead of J.Taylor. I liked most of your picks, shame I couldn't find room (in my draft) for Wren (but since I got Simmons instead, that's ok).

I liked the Cashman and Mattison picks as well. This is my favourite of the (very) many mocks that I've seen here, I would be happy if many of these picks came to us in the real draft.

Great effort and beautifully presented.

[Cadmus]

50 minutes ago, festiveonion said:

Think Gute sticks with the sophomores and addresses that position day 3 unless a talent is falling at the top of the 2nd/3rd. 

Your entire response was high quality first comment @festiveonion. 

Welcome. 

I agree on the WR position--unless Gute sees a WR falling on Day 2 that he has a strong affinity for--there's a high probability they''ll wait until later on Day 3 to add to the position. 

I think the Packers FO is likely higher on both OL and WR groups in-house than the rest of us. I don't think Gute necessarily fears entering the regular season with Adams, Allison, MVS, EQ, Moore and Kumerow as the WR group. That being said-- I don't think that will stop him from adding to the WR group at any point in the draft if value presents itself. 

[Cadmus]

38 minutes ago, Pilprin said:

Great job in selecting players...I like the way that you addressed most issues. I would be surprised to see GB select more than 9-10 players...but I could be wrong. I see them moving up strategically after round 1 to target players. Would not be surprised to see two 1's and two 2's when it is all said and done. Definately see us drafting at 15-17 instead of 12....but who knows. Thanks fo the work...this had to take hours to compile.

Can't argue with you there at all, and I tend to agree the number will be closer to 10. 

It's a mock and I wanted to present as many prospects as reasonably possible. 

However, I wouldn't say 12 players isn't completely unreasonable depending on how the board falls-- I was shooting for a realistic result, not necessarily the most likely one. 

[Cadmus]

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Anybody else worried about taking a speed rusher at 12 with a slower than 7.00 second 3-cone? I know it's by .01 seconds, but that kinda scares me. I like my speed rushers to be more in that 6.8 range? The film is great no doubt, it just kinda gives me pause. I know that correlation isn't nearly as strong as we previously believed, but it's still interesting.

As a guy who likes numbers--no doubt it's a reason for pause, but then again you watch what Burns consistently displays on the field and that pretty much alleviates any concern I have with that threshold. 

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I do not like the thought of drafting a move-TE with a 4.75 40 time. Pretty much all the studs are faster than that. I also am a little scared when a TEs best trait is catching the ball contested. That usually means he's not getting open. 

Again, I'm a guy who likes numbers, and I'd generally agree with you on the 40 time, but I also think he's one of those players that simply plays faster on the field (I used to think that concept was total BS). Sternberger is definitely someone that has grown on me throughout the draft process. I'm personally of the belief that he plays closer to high 4.6s or low 4.7s. The success of players like Ertz, Rudolph, Thomas, Hooper and Herndon kind of reaffirms that players can be fringe 4.6/4.7 athletes and succeed at the TE position  in the NFL. Also, I didn't state his best quality was contested catches, that was simply a tweet I linked during the last hour of putting the mock together so people would have something to click on (I did that for all of the prospects). 

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Scharping will go either late 1st or early 2nd is a draft prediction of mine. Just not seeing how he doesn't make it there. Guys with starting LT upside don't last that long. May even be the pick at 30. 

I think he could be drafted as soon as the early 3rd, but that would be best case scenario for Scharping IMHO. He's certainly not a finished product and that lower half can get ugly at times. I'm not sure he can play LT in the NFL either, he definitely seems to get nervous when he has to match-up against an explosive EDGE rusher with some speed. I think the reason had success against Burns has to do with the fact he didn't feel threatened by a bull rush from a 230 LB EDGE prospect. 

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

I have no opinions on the midround RBs (Mattison) other than that guy does not look like a 4.5 back on tape even on the highlights that I saw. Doesn't mean he can't be a player, just not seeing that same upside.

Yeah, I never said he was a 4.50 type back--just to clarify. I think Mattison is (and has always been) a 4.55-4.58 type runner. Speed is not where he'll make his money, but it'll be through hard-nosed and balanced running combined with a 3rd-down skillset. 

1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Hard for me to get down on a guy taken in the 6th round, but Fields is both short and has issues with his turnover. Not for me.

I prefaced the selection by pointing out the options would be extremely limited at CB. He was by far the best option on Day 3 by my estimation. You can go with a player like Harris who needs to be perpetually bubble wrapped or you can go with a player like Ballentine that has never played an actual college game against any NFL talent. 

Also, I don't understand the hate for ARW, nor do I understand the redundancy of the Ratliff-Williams and Johnson selections outside of the fact they both play WR. I'm honestly not sure ARW has the capacity to effectively play outside at the NFL level. 

[coachbuns]

Everybody has their own ideas on drafting certain players at certain spots ... Each to their own.  All I know, that was a heck of a lot of work put into your draft.  I enjoy looking at different players and different mocks.  Well done and presented.       

[Uffdaswede]

Dexter McDonald: You had me at hello, vet minimum.

[JBURGE]

Really love the draft, the first 4 rounds anyway. 2 WRs seems like kind of a waste, but they can spend a year on the PS and see if they can hit. Just seems like this year we have too many bodies.

I like adding both Burns and Miller, gives us a lot of options for the front. You know I love Wren. Adderley is probably my favourite pick, would love to come away with him. 

Crazy amount of effort, get back to studying

[Leader]

1 minute ago, JBURGE said:

Really love the draft, the first 4 rounds anyway. 2 WRs seems like kind of a waste, but they can spend a year on the PS and see if they can hit. Just seems like this year we have too many bodies.

I like adding both Burns and Miller, gives us a lot of options for the front. You know I love Wren. Adderley is probably my favourite pick, would love to come away with him. 

Crazy amount of effort, get back to studying

Agree. I've been banging these drums for weeks. If we could start things off with these two talents and positions addressed at 1 and 2? The rest is gravy for me. Sit back, put the feet up and enjoy the rest of the show.

[ThatJerkDave]

Holy geeze! I know what I am reading on my lunch break...

[VonKarman]

Don't you guys think that Cashman is a Day 2 pick? From the few things I've seen I'd be pumped to have him in round 4, but I feel like he'll be picked in the end of round 2 or beginning of round 3.