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Calvin Johnson is a first ballot hofer; change my mind

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34 minutes ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

By chance is this inspired by Steven Crowder?

The interent meme more than crowder.

34 minutes ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

Absolutely not. He doesn't have the longevity/career numbers or the playoff dominance to get in over all of the other guys that have been waiting in line. Why would a guy who is 44th in catches,  30th in yards and 22nd in touchdowns be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer?

 

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7 minutes ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

He doesn't have the longevity/career numbers or the playoff dominance to get in over all of the other guys that have been waiting in line. Why would a guy who is 44th in catches,  30th in yards and 22nd in touchdowns be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer?

Longevity is overrated. 

He played in 2 playoff games, so he doesn't have a lot of those under his belt; of course, in his first playoff game he went off for 12-211 with 2 tds. In his 2nd he managed a mere 5-85. So I'd say that he certainly showed up when he had the opportunity. 


His rate numbers are excellent -  just under 5.5 catches/game (I can't get a definitive ranking on this, but he's in the neighborhood of Jerry Rice, Tony Gonzalez, and Larry Fitzgerald, who are top 3 all time in receptions), and 3rd in yds game behind Julio Jones and Antonio Brown (and he 0.1/yd behind Brown, so if Brown's productions slips, he'll be back at #2). As far as tds/game....well, for one  he's top 20 in tds, and of the 19 ahead of him, 10 are in the HoF, and 3 are still active; he has the fewest games played and the only person in his vicinity is Antonio Brown (again), 5 fewer games and 9 fewer tds. So his production was among the best ever in all 3 significant categories. 

I'd rather have a guy who was as excellent as anyone over his 9 yr career than someone who was pretty good for 14 yrs. 

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He's more of a HOFer than Devin Hester is. 

He was a phenom for a relatively short time, an absolute monster for three years. But he wasn't on a particularly successful team. Stafford is no HOFer, but he was more than good enough that he wasn't holding Calvin back. If anything Stafford was inflating CJ's numbers because a better QB wouldn't have been force feeding him the ball like he did for several years. 

He may get in eventually, but it's sure not going to be first ballot. 

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1 hour ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

By chance is this inspired by Steven Crowder?

Absolutely not. He doesn't have the longevity/career numbers or the playoff dominance to get in over all of the other guys that have been waiting in line. Why would a guy who is 44th in catches,  30th in yards and 22nd in touchdowns be a 1st ballot Hall of Famer?

It isn’t always about stats.

Calvin Johnson was one of the most dominant offensive players the league has seen and did it over a long enough period of time.  There is no reason he shouldn’t be voted in as soon as hes eligible.

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45 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

Longevity is overrated. 

...

His rate numbers are excellent -  just under 5.5 catches/game (I can't get a definitive ranking on this, but he's in the neighborhood of Jerry Rice, Tony Gonzalez, and Larry Fitzgerald, who are top 3 all time in receptions),

Those guys are ranked so high because they maintained a high rate over a really long period of time. Saying that a guy did approximately the same in less time isn't exactly comparable. 

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Maybe recency bias gets him in, but Sterling Sharpe hasn't even got a chance and he only played in 2 less seasons with very similar dominance. 

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39 minutes ago, Coffee & Contemplation said:

Those guys are ranked so high because they maintained a high rate over a really long period of time. Saying that a guy did approximately the same in less time isn't exactly comparable. 

9 years is still a significant amount of time. It isn't as if he had two great seasons and quit. I set a HoF candidacy as "5 yrs as one of the top 3-5 players at his position"; Johnson easily hits that mark. Look at OJ Simpson's career, he had 6 nondescript seasons and 5 that were absolutely off the charts (well, 3 that were off the charts but that 5 yr stretch is unbelievable) - and his on-field accomplishments are definitely those of a HoF'er. 

Edited by Mr Bad Example

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5 minutes ago, Malik said:

Maybe recency bias gets him in, but Sterling Sharpe hasn't even got a chance and he only played in 2 less seasons with very similar dominance. 

Does Sharpe not have a chance because you feel he's undeserving, or does he not have a chance because you feel the Hall is doing a poor job? 

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3 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

Does Sharpe not have a chance because you feel he's undeserving, or does he not have a chance because you feel the Hall is doing a poor job? 

The latter. Cris Carter had the consensus for best hands of a WR ever and also had longevity but still had to wait forever to get in.

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19 minutes ago, Malik said:

Maybe recency bias gets him in, but Sterling Sharpe hasn't even got a chance and he only played in 2 less seasons with very similar dominance. 

I think what probably hurts Sharpe, right or wrong, is that he was playing at the same time as prime Jerry Rice.  I wasn't alive at the time so this could be my ignorance on it showing, but was it anymore than maybe a small minority arguing Sharpe was better than Rice at any point?  By the time Sharpe had his 2nd First-Team All Pro (92), Rice had already accomplished that 6 times.  Even in Sharpe's final season when he had 18 touchdowns, Rice led the league in receiving yards (again) and 13 TDs.  So I'm not sure it's really comparable.  Johnson had a three year run where he was unequivocally the best WR in the game and even though injuries slowed him down in his final two years, a lot of people still thought he was top three at worst.  And even when 2015 rolled around and he wasn't technically better than Antonio Brown for those who paid attention, he still had that reputation - it wasn't like his numbers had gotten bad and he was still capable of having outrageous games and highlight catches.

Did Sharpe ever have that 2 or 3 year stretch where people thought he was the best WR?  Unfair to hold it against him for playing with Rice, but that's how it goes.  Voters aren't really going to think about it from a statistical POV as much as they will remember Johnson's reputation as the league's best and most dominant WR for a period of time.  I don't think Sharpe had that reputation when he retired, otherwise I really think he would have gotten close to the HOF than he has.  I don't think Johnson is gonna have that problem

 

Edited by iknowcool

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6 minutes ago, iknowcool said:

I think what probably hurts Sharpe, right or wrong, is that he was playing at the same time as prime Jerry Rice.  I wasn't alive at the time so this could be my ignorance on it showing, but was it anymore than maybe a small minority arguing Sharpe was better than Rice at any point?  By the time Sharpe had his 2nd First-Team All Pro (92), Rice had already accomplished that 6 times.  Even in Sharpe's final season when he had 18 touchdowns, Rice led the league in receiving yards (again) and 13 TDs.  So I'm not sure it's really comparable.  Johnson had a three year run where he was unequivocally the best WR in the game and even though injuries slowed him down in his final two years, a lot of people still thought he was top three at worst.  And even when 2015 rolled around and he wasn't technically better than Antonio Brown for those who paid attention, he still had that reputation - it wasn't like his numbers had gotten bad and he was still capable of having outrageous games and highlight catches.

Did Sharpe ever have that 2 or 3 year stretch where people thought he was the best WR?  Unfair to hold it against him for playing with Rice, but that's how it goes.  Voters aren't really going to think about it from a statistical POV as much as they will remember Johnson's reputation as the league's best and most dominant WR for a period of time.  I don't think Sharpe had that reputation when he retired, otherwise I really think he would have gotten close to the HOF than he has.  I don't think Johnson is gonna have that problem

 

I think Sharpe had at least 4 of his 6 non-rookie seasons* where one could say he was as good as Rice at his peak....and considering that Rice may be the greatest player in the history of the NFL, that's saying something. 

* and Sharpe led all rookie WRs in catches and was just a tick behind Tim Brown in yards; and that was a pretty darn good rookie class, with Brown, Anthony Miller, Michael Irvin, and Brian Blades.

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Here's another comparison: 
 

- is Antonio Brown a first-ballot HoF if he retired today? Because his and Johnson's career numbers are remarkably similar. 

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6 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

Here's another comparison: 
 

- is Antonio Brown a first-ballot HoF if he retired today? Because his and Johnson's career numbers are remarkably similar. 

All conventional wisdom says yes, but I don't think so, even though he's lead the league in yards, catches, and TDs since 2013 IIRC.

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2 hours ago, C0LTSFAN4L1F3 said:

Okay great. Other players were consistently productive for a longer period of time, making them more valuable as a player overall in their career. Again, 44nd, 30th and 22nd in rec, yards, and touchdowns respectively is not 1st ballot HoF worthy when there's many other players who have been waiting. 

How do you have +131 upvotes/electronic footballs? Every single one of your takes stinks.

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36 minutes ago, Mr Bad Example said:

Here's another comparison: 
 

- is Antonio Brown a first-ballot HoF if he retired today? Because his and Johnson's career numbers are remarkably similar. 

Brown wouldn't be for the same reason T.O. wasn't a first ballot, too much drama. Calvin didn't really have that and that means you just base it on their play and I think that will make him first ballot. All of the crazy stuff is great for recognition but I think it hurts players, receivers specifically, when it comes time to get the media's vote for the HOF.

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