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Aaron Rodgers Appreciation Thread 4.20


Shanedorf

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3 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

First Jimmy G, next Cousins, Brees, Keenum, etc.  By this time this year is over and ARod comes calling, GB might have to file for bankruptcy.  These QB contracts are getting totally out of control man.

Not really. Look at percentage of the cap, not bulk numbers. Once the cap levels out and stops going up, the contracts will level out as well. 

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8 hours ago, eyecatcher said:

Since the Brett Favre led Packers won the Super Bowl there have been 21 Super Bowls.  In those 21 games 29 of the 42 starting QBs were future HOF QBs.  Of those 21 wins all but  3 were won by a future HOF QB.   Yes they had good defenses but they also had exceptional QB play.  

Yup.  You need a good defense to get to the SB but  you also need excellent QB play to win it.  There is a reason every GM who doesn't have a decent QB will practically sell his first born for one.   If we let Rodgers walk - or make him available for trade - the line of GMs ready to give him the moon would be pretty damn long.  When I see the list of teams who picked QBs high in the draft over the years only to have these kids bust big time makes me shudder at the thought of going that route when we already have arguably the best QB in the game today.  

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7 hours ago, cannondale said:

Bart Starr

Scott Hunter

Jerry Tagge

John Hadl

Carlos Brown

Lynn Dickey

David Whitehurst

Randy Wright

Anthony Dilweg

Don Majkowski

Brett Favre

You forgot 'All the wayzo with Jim Del Gaizo'.

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AR is currently a bargain. AR signed his current contract in 2014 at 5 years $110m. At that time the salary cap went from $123m to $133m. The salary cap is projected top be $174m to $179m next year. The cap has been increasing 10 million per year the last 5 years. Too much is made of his cap hit. He is by far the most productive play maker on the team. At $30 million per year he will be a bargain again in 3 years. They can easily pay the man but they need to make smart deals with other players. You can't have contracts like Matthews, Nelson and Cobb hanging out there with players that aren't producing at the level they were when they signed the big deals.

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The 2014 cap was $133m. Rodgers new deal then earned an average of $22m. Rather than go into the exact yearly details of the contract, which makes calculations murky (and which I don't know anyway), I'll go with that $22m figure. It is near enough 16.54% of the total cap of the year (2014) that the deal was agreed.

Project that % forward to 2018. Overthecap predicts the cap will be $178m. 16.54% of that 2018 cap would be $29.2m. Given how QBs are, if anything, even more valuable to a team now, than they were in 2014, and given also the current QB deals being agreed, you would expect a Rodgers deal to be somewhere north of $30m. The question is, how far north ? Also, as eyecatcher pointed out, continued big jumps in the total cap could make any deal seem increasingly good value over time, as long as Rodgers continues to play at a high level..

Edited by OneTwoSixFive
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Rodgers has about 42 million due the next two years, figure even a 27M franchise tag in 2020 (21.2 in 2017).   20% increase in 2021 at 32.4.  Pack have Aaron for 4 years at ~101 million with nothing guaranteed.  We have huge leverage.

Could see something like 4 additional years at 118, 29.5 per year in new money, effectively a 6 year 160 million, 26.66 per.  Maybe more like 165 million, ~~32-33 million per year in 2022/2023. 

Can pass it off as highest ever contract in terms of new money, could probably give him most guaranteed money ever as well, although we don’t have to, yet will still be a pretty good steal for us, everyone is happy.

 

I think possibly what sparked that 'I may not be able to finish my career in GB' talk Aaron mentioned may have stemmed from these discussions.  Packers pretty much saying we have you for 100M for 4 years, you will be 38 at the end of that, we simply aren't going to give 165 million for 5 years at 33 per because we really don't have to. 

Edited by BrettFavre004
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33 minutes ago, BrettFavre004 said:

I think possibly what sparked that 'I may not be able to finish my career in GB' talk Aaron mentioned may have stemmed from these discussions.  Packers pretty much saying we have you for 100M for 4 years, you will be 38 at the end of that, we simply aren't going to give 165 million for 5 years at 33 per because we really don't have to. 

Honestly, I've been thinking 4 years, $100M with it being heavily guaranteed might be the way to go about it.  They can structure it so that he gets more "new" money than anyone else, but it gets stretched over the current two years.

EDIT: 4 years, $112M in "new" money, but that $12M can be moved onto the old deal.  Something where 75% of it is guaranteed.

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  • 1 month later...
On 2/8/2018 at 3:03 PM, eyecatcher said:

Fair enough but I'm not ready to gamble on draft picks working out.  Not enough quality QBs in the league to go around.  It is a QB driven league.  

 

This.  Some believe that any rookie QB drafted is going to be the next Aaron Rodgers.  Reality is that this year's rookies have a substantially bigger chance of busting than they do of being pro bowl or all pro QBs.  QBs are far less than coin flip players in the NFL.  Far more of them bomb out in the NFL than turn into quality NFL starters.  This team has shown to be tiredly putrid when we aren't getting all world play from our QB.  We don't have the skill position players on offense or the defense to win with bad QB play.  

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