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Aaron Rodgers Appreciation Thread 4.20


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8 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

I don't blame GB for overpaying. Like you just said he had an amazing year and was 24. The 2014 season was an outlier though and was also Jordy's prime in taking the top off the defense which open up all kinds off room for Cobb.

Year G Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD
2011 15 31 25 375 15 1
2012 15 104 80 954 11.9 8
2013 6 47 31 433 14 4
2014* 16 127 91 1287 14.1 12
2015 16 129 79 829 10.5 6
2016 13 84 60 610 10.2 4
2017 15 92 66 653 9.9 4
2018 9 61 38 383 10.1 2
2019 15 83 55 828 15.1 3

 

How did injuries catch up to him? He was healthy in 2015 and his production significantly dropped off. Also this happens to be the year Jordy was out. He missed 3.5 games in 2016, 1 in 2017, and 7 in 2018. He was essentially healthy until his hamstring injury in 2018 but his 2016 & 2017 significantly dropped off. He was overpaid. I dont see Cobb out of the league in 3 years. His production may drop in the next few years but he is still a good #3 option.

 

16-Dec-18 Head Cranial Concussion Grade 2 1 Game
8-Nov-18 Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2 3 Games
27-Sep-18 Thigh Hamstring Strain Grade 2 3 Games
17-Sep-17 Chest Sternum Bruise 1 Game
11-Dec-16 Pedal Ankle Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 2 Games
26-Oct-16 Thigh Hamstring Sprain/Pull Unspecified Grade 1 1 Game
16-Jan-16 Chest Lung Puncture 1/2 Game
29-Aug-15 Shoulder A/C Joint Sprain 1 Preseason Game

 

 

 

 

The shoulder in 2015 nagged him all year.  Not a healthy year at all.

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Ben Fennell - I know we've been blessed with improvisational magic and play extension from Aaron Rodgers.
But I DO NOT look at 35 year old Rodgers off a major knee injury and say - do what you do!
Aaron needs to play more within structure, from pocket, and let the play-makers do the work.

Aaron Rodgers is a more talented passer/thrower than Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Phillip Rivers....
But his style will be his down fall. If he changes his style...he can play til 45 and dominate.

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2 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

Same info but sorted by # of picks

 

  1st 2nd 3rd 4th   Allocation # Picks
Los Angeles Rams 1 2 2 5   19 10
Seattle Seahawks   3 2 4   17 9
San Francisco 49ers 1 2 1 4   16 8
Tennessee Titans 2 3 2     21 7
Carolina Panthers 2 2 2 1   19 7
Houston Texans 2   3 2   16 7
Jacksonville Jaguars 1 3   3   16 7
Arizona Cardinals 1 2 3 1   17 7
Cleveland Browns 1 1   5   12 7
Pittsburgh Steelers   2 4 1   15 7
Cincinnati Bengals 2 1 2 1   16 6
Baltimore Ravens 2 1 1 2   15 6
Denver Broncos 1 2 2 1   15 6
New York Jets   2 1 3   11 6
Philadelphia Eagles 1 2 1 1   13 5
Buffalo Bills 1 2 1 1   13 5
New England Patriots 1 1 1 2   11 5
Kansas City Chiefs 1 1 1 2   11 5
Minnesota Vikings 2     2   10 4
New York Giants 1 2 1     12 4
Indianapolis Colts 1 2 1     12 4
Chicago Bears 1 2   1   11 4
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1 1 1 1   10 4
New Orleans Saints 1 1 1 1   10 4
Miami Dolphins 1 1 1 1   10 4
Washington Redskins 1   2 1   9 4
Dallas Cowboys 1   2 1   9 4
Green Bay Packers   2 1 1   9 4
Atlanta Falcons 2     1   9 3
Los Angeles Chargers 1   2     8 3
Detroit Lions   2 1     8 3
Oakland Raiders 1     1   5 2

Nicely done.  Only thing I noticed ... Packers had 2 - 2nd rd picks and 1 - 4th rd; didn't see a 3rd.  Cobb/Adams/Moore is all I found in my research.  Using your criteria, Packers only accumulated 7 pts putting them next to dead last the past 10 years.  Maybe you counted Ty Montgomery as a wr but my source listed him as a rb?  Minor detail ..  nice.

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9 minutes ago, Leader said:

Ben Fennell - I know we've been blessed with improvisational magic and play extension from Aaron Rodgers.
But I DO NOT look at 35 year old Rodgers off a major knee injury and say - do what you do!
Aaron needs to play more within structure, from pocket, and let the play-makers do the work.

Aaron Rodgers is a more talented passer/thrower than Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Kurt Warner, Phillip Rivers....
But his style will be his down fall. If he changes his style...he can play til 45 and dominate.

This.  Our expectations maybe have to be readjusted as he gets older.  He is not the same player he was 5-6-7 years ago ... age and injuries has taken its toll.  He just can't carry a team like he used to and as you mentioned, he needs some help.  Agree, if he doesn't change his playing style to the Brady, Brees, etc type player he will not succeed.   

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10 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Nicely done.  Only thing I noticed ... Packers had 2 - 2nd rd picks and 1 - 4th rd; didn't see a 3rd.  Cobb/Adams/Moore is all I found in my research.  Using your criteria, Packers only accumulated 7 pts putting them next to dead last the past 10 years.  Maybe you counted Ty Montgomery as a wr but my source listed him as a rb?  Minor detail ..  nice.

No wonder we suck at wide receiver .. our organization clearly does not value the position.  I think this is a major reason why we only have 2 SB victories in 30 years of HOF QB Play.  

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Might be beneficial to look at the success of those players picked in the first and 2nd round

Feel free to argue about those hit/miss, neutral ratings.  

Rk Year Rnd Pick Player Pos DrAge Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV    
1 2011 1 6 Julio Jones WR 22 ATL 2011 2019 2 7 8 87   Hit
2 2018 1 26 Calvin Ridley WR 23 ATL 2018 2019 0 0 1 7   hit
3 2014 1 4 Sammy Watkins WR 21 BUF 2014 2019 0 0 6 30   miss
4 2013 2 41 Robert Woods WR 21 BUF 2013 2019 0 0 7 38   miss for draft team
5 2017 2 37 Zay Jones WR 22 BUF 2017 2019 0 0 2 8   miss
6 2014 1 28 Kelvin Benjamin WR 23 CAR 2014 2018 0 0 4 22   miss
7 2018 1 24 D.J. Moore WR 21 CAR 2018 2019 0 0 2 8   hit
8 2017 2 40 Curtis Samuel WR 21 CAR 2017 2019 0 0 2 7   hit
9 2015 1 7 Kevin White WR 23 CHI 2016 2018 0 0 0 2   miss
10 2012 2 45 Alshon Jeffery WR 22 CHI 2012 2019 0 1 7 46   miss for draft team
11 2018 2 51 Anthony Miller WR 23 CHI 2018 2019 0 0 0 4   Lean hit
12 2011 1 4 A.J. Green WR 23 CIN 2011 2018 0 7 8 68   hit
13 2017 1 9 John Ross WR 22 CIN 2017 2019 0 0 2 2   ?
14 2016 2 55 Tyler Boyd WR 21 CIN 2016 2019 0 0 2 16   hit
15 2016 1 15 Corey Coleman WR 22 CLE 2016 2018 0 0 2 6   miss
16 2011 2 59 Greg Little WR 22 CLE 2011 2014 0 0 3 13   miss
17 2015 1 29 Phillip Dorsett WR 22 IND 2015 2019 0 0 0 11   miss for draft team
18 2019 2 59 Parris Campbell WR 22 IND 2019 2019 0 0 0 0   ?
19 2012 1 13 Michael Floyd WR 22 ARI 2012 2018 0 0 2 28   miss
20 2018 2 47 Christian Kirk WR 21 ARI 2018 2019 0 0 1 4   hit
21 2019 2 62 Andy Isabella WR 22 ARI 2019 2019 0 0 0 0   ?
22 2010 1 24 Dez Bryant WR 21 DAL 2010 2017 1 3 7 61   hit
23 2010 1 22 Demaryius Thomas WR 22 DEN 2010 2019 0 4 8 67   hit
24 2014 2 56 Cody Latimer WR 21 DEN 2014 2019 0 0 1 4   miss
25 2018 2 40 Courtland Sutton WR 22 DEN 2018 2019 0 0 2 5   hit
26 2011 2 44 Titus Young WR 22 DET 2011 2012 0 0 2 8   miss
27 2012 2 54 Ryan Broyles WR 24 DET 2012 2014 0 0 0 3   miss
28 2011 2 64 Randall Cobb WR 21 GNB 2011 2019 0 1 4 54   hit
29 2014 2 53 Davante Adams WR 21 GNB 2014 2019 0 2 6 34   hit
30 2013 1 27 DeAndre Hopkins WR 21 HOU 2013 2019 2 4 7 51   hit
31 2016 1 21 Will Fuller WR 22 HOU 2016 2019 0 0 3 13   neutral
32 2012 1 5 Justin Blackmon WR 22 JAX 2012 2014 0 0 1 9   miss
33 2014 2 61 Allen Robinson WR 21 JAX 2014 2019 0 1 5 26   hit but left in FA to another team
34 2014 2 39 Marqise Lee WR 22 JAX 2014 2019 0 0 2 17   neutral
35 2018 2 61 DJ Chark WR 21 JAX 2018 2019 0 0 1 1   Lean hit
36 2011 1 26 Jonathan Baldwin WR 22 KAN 2011 2013 0 0 0 4   miss
37 2010 2 36 Dexter McCluster WR 21 KAN 2010 2016 0 1 0 21   miss
38 2019 2 56 Mecole Hardman WR 21 KAN 2019 2019 0 1 0 0   ?
39 2015 1 14 DeVante Parker WR 22 MIA 2015 2019 0 0 3 15   lean hit
40 2014 2 63 Jarvis Landry WR 21 MIA 2014 2019 0 5 6 36   hit, left in FA
41 2013 1 29 Cordarrelle Patterson WR 22 MIN 2013 2019 2 3 1 25   miss
42 2016 1 23 Laquon Treadwell WR 21 MIN 2016 2019 0 0 0 4   miss
43 2014 1 20 Brandin Cooks WR 20 NOR 2014 2019 0 0 5 47   hit, now on 3rd team
44 2016 2 47 Michael Thomas WR 23 NOR 2016 2019 1 3 4 38   hit
45 2019 1 32 N'Keal Harry WR 21 NWE 2019 2019 0 0 0 0   ?
46 2013 2 59 Aaron Dobson WR 22 NWE 2013 2015 0 0 1 6   miss
47 2014 1 12 Odell Beckham WR 21 NYG 2014 2019 0 3 5 42   hit, on 2nd team
48 2012 2 63 Rueben Randle WR 21 NYG 2012 2015 0 0 2 21   miss
49 2016 2 40 Sterling Shepard WR 23 NYG 2016 2019 0 0 4 16   lean hit
50 2012 2 43 Stephen Hill WR 21 NYJ 2012 2014 0 0 2 4   miss
51 2015 2 37 Devin Smith WR 23 NYJ 2015 2019 0 0 0 1   miss
52 2012 1 20 Kendall Wright WR 22 TEN 2012 2017 0 0 3 28   neutral
53 2017 1 5 Corey Davis WR 22 TEN 2017 2019 0 0 3 10   lean miss
54 2013 2 34 Justin Hunter WR 22 TEN 2013 2018 0 0 1 9   miss
55 2015 2 40 Dorial Green-Beckham WR 22 TEN 2015 2016 0 0 0 7   miss
56 2019 2 51 A.J. Brown WR 22 TEN 2019 2019 0 0 1 0   hit but early
57 2015 1 20 Nelson Agholor WR 22 PHI 2015 2019 0 0 5 18   neutral
58 2014 2 42 Jordan Matthews WR 22 PHI 2014 2019 0 0 3 23   neutral
59 2019 2 57 JJ Arcega-Whiteside WR 22 PHI 2019 2019 0 0 0 0   ?
60 2017 2 62 JuJu Smith-Schuster WR 20 PIT 2017 2019 0 1 2 21   hit
61 2018 2 60 James Washington WR 22 PIT 2018 2019 0 0 1 2   neutral
62 2015 1 4 Amari Cooper WR 21 OAK 2015 2019 0 3 5 31   hit, on 2nd team
63 2013 1 8 Tavon Austin WR 23 STL 2013 2019 0 0 4 24   miss
64 2012 2 33 Brian Quick WR 23 STL 2012 2018 0 0 0 11   miss
65 2015 1 26 Breshad Perriman WR 21 BAL 2016 2019 0 0 0 6   neutral
66 2019 1 25 Marquise Brown WR 22 BAL 2019 2019 0 0 1 0   ?
67 2011 2 58 Torrey Smith WR 22 BAL 2011 2018 0 0 7 38   neutral
68 2017 1 7 Mike Williams WR 22 LAC 2017 2019 0 0 1 7   neutral
69 2010 2 60 Golden Tate WR 22 SEA 2010 2019 0 1 7 53   hit, on 2nd team
70 2014 2 45 Paul Richardson WR 22 SEA 2014 2019 0 0 1 12   miss
71 2019 2 64 D.K. Metcalf WR 21 SEA 2019 2019 0 0 1 0   hit but early
72 2012 1 30 A.J. Jenkins WR 22 SFO 2012 2014 0 0 0 2   miss
73 2018 2 44 Dante Pettis WR 22 SFO 2018 2019 0 0 0 3   miss
74 2019 2 36 Deebo Samuel WR 23 SFO 2019 2019 0 0 1 0   hit but early
75 2014 1 7 Mike Evans WR 21 TAM 2014 2019 0 3 6 42   hit
76 2010 2 39 Arrelious Benn WR 21 TAM 2010 2017 0 0 2 8   miss
77 2016 1 22 Josh Doctson WR 23 WAS 2016 2019 0 0 2 9   miss
                               
                              Totals
                            hit 16
                            miss 28
                            neutral 9
                            hit but early 3
                            ? 7
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18 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Nicely done.  Only thing I noticed ... Packers had 2 - 2nd rd picks and 1 - 4th rd; didn't see a 3rd.  Cobb/Adams/Moore is all I found in my research.  Using your criteria, Packers only accumulated 7 pts putting them next to dead last the past 10 years.  Maybe you counted Ty Montgomery as a wr but my source listed him as a rb?  Minor detail ..  nice.

Ty Montgomery was a WR when he was drafted.  He wasn't projected as a RB at all when they picked him.

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1 minute ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

Ty Montgomery was a WR when he was drafted.  He wasn't projected as a RB at all when they picked him.

Could be ... like I said, the site I used for my wr research listed him as a running back.  

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1 minute ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

What site?

 

Just went to Wikipedia and punched in GB draft history and every year comes up since 1936.  Used 2010 listing to 2019 listing and went from there.  Easy site to use for checking out any year's draft.  Not sure where they got info from ... maybe Packers themselves ... not sure.  

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5 minutes ago, coachbuns said:

Just went to Wikipedia and punched in GB draft history and every year comes up since 1936.  Used 2010 listing to 2019 listing and went from there.  Easy site to use for checking out any year's draft.  Not sure where they got info from ... maybe Packers themselves ... not sure.  

Yeah Ty was drafted as a WR. I'm pretty sure he was going through the WR drills his first year at GB. It was his second year he was moved to RB.

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28 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

I don't blame GB for overpaying. Like you just said he had an amazing year and was 24. The 2014 season was an outlier though and was also Jordy's prime in taking the top off the defense which open up all kinds off room for Cobb.


How did injuries catch up to him? He was healthy in 2015 and his production significantly dropped off. Also this happens to be the year Jordy was out. He missed 3.5 games in 2016, 1 in 2017, and 7 in 2018. He was essentially healthy until his hamstring injury in 2018 but his 2016 & 2017 significantly dropped off. He was overpaid. I dont see Cobb out of the league in 3 years. His production may drop in the next few years but he is still a good #3 option.

 

I thought it was an outlier as well.  I didn't consider the Jordy effect, though.  Props for that.

When he hit free agency, I did a deep dive on his stats.  Found that roughly half that production came off of scramble drill plays.  I thought that there was no way he's as productive outside of Green Bay due to Rodgers and that scramble drill.  That was tough to replicate anywhere else.  And still, I thought he was a "must" to re-sign.

I thought that he didn't recover fully from his injuries.  He lost a step at a point and time in life when receivers rarely lose a step.  Something happened there, I attributed it to injuries.

17 receivers in the league, right now, are 30 years old or older.  229 total receivers.  Per Spotrac.  If Cobb is in the league in 2-3 years, he will certainly be one of only a few.  

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28 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

Yeah Ty was drafted as a WR. I'm pretty sure he was going through the WR drills his first year at GB. It was his second year he was moved to RB.

 A bust as a wide receiver pick and a higher one at that.

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15 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

I thought it was an outlier as well.  I didn't consider the Jordy effect, though.  Props for that.

When he hit free agency, I did a deep dive on his stats.  Found that roughly half that production came off of scramble drill plays.  I thought that there was no way he's as productive outside of Green Bay due to Rodgers and that scramble drill.  That was tough to replicate anywhere else.  And still, I thought he was a "must" to re-sign.

I thought that he didn't recover fully from his injuries.  He lost a step at a point and time in life when receivers rarely lose a step.  Something happened there, I attributed it to injuries.

17 receivers in the league, right now, are 30 years old or older.  229 total receivers.  Per Spotrac.  If Cobb is in the league in 2-3 years, he will certainly be one of only a few.  

Only 17 receivers in the league are 30 or older.... Geeze, I didn't realize it was that low.

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2 minutes ago, Kenrik said:

Only 17 receivers in the league are 30 or older.... Geeze, I didn't realize it was that low.

I knew it was bad, only because when we let Jordy go, I did that search.  Maybe I used 32 as the age and there were like only 6 WR's that age or higher at that time.

NFL moves on from WR's quickly.  It's almost like RB's!

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