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Aaron Rodgers Appreciation Thread 4.20

Shanedorf

By Shanedorf
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chillparsi1

chillparsi1

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Among the 32 qualifying quarterbacks, Rodgers ranked dead-last in middle of the field usage. His 24.6% is not only last, but last by a large amount. The difference between Rodgers and the second lowest number is a similar distance to the second lowest and the tenth lowest. To put it into perspective even further, the 25th percentile for this statistic is 37.4%. The league leader was Matt Ryan at 49.4%. The 25th percentile was closer to the league leader than Aaron Rodgers was to the 25th percentile by nearly a full percentage point

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It's not flawless analysis, but a pretty interesting read - reinforces what a lot of people have said. 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2020/5/7/21247582/aaron-rodgers-packers-pass-direction-middle-of-field-shot-selection-2019

 

 

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MrBobGray

MrBobGray

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1 hour ago, chillparsi1 said:

.

It's not flawless analysis, but a pretty interesting read - reinforces what a lot of people have said. 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2020/5/7/21247582/aaron-rodgers-packers-pass-direction-middle-of-field-shot-selection-2019

 

 

This was enough of a pain in the *** to put together I'm going to repost it since it's topical again. But I found pretty much the same thing in November:

 

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Honestly, the biggest red flag to me is that Jimmy Graham and Mercedes Lewis are on the team and he still won't throw to them over the middle.  Rodgers has always enjoyed playing with other vets of a certain status; he was effusive in his praise for Cedric Benson despite the fact that the dude played below average ball for like six weeks in Green Bay.  But despite being equally glowing about both of those guys, come game time it's outside all day.  I looked up the numbers on PFR:

2019 Left - 150 - 39.6%
2019 Middle - 73 - 19.3%
2019 Right - 156 - 41.1%

2014 Left - 179 - 34.8%
2014 Middle - 127 - 24.7%
2014 Right - 209 - 40.5%

2010 Left - 156 - 33.6%
2010 Middle - 102 - 22%
2010 Right - 206 - 44.4%

So, we can pretty clearly see that Rodgers has increased how much he's thrown left over the years, at the cost of throwing less to the right and middle.  Less throws to the right makes sense; the more you scramble the more often you'll throw right (as that's generally the direction a right handed QB wants to escape the pocket), and Rodgers isn't the scrambler he used to be.  But maybe it's MLF that's causing him to target the middle of the field less?

2018 Titans Right - 152 - 35%
2018 Titans Middle - 114 - 26.2%
2018 Titans Left - 169 - 38.8%

2018 Aaron Rodgers Left - 251 - 42%
2018 Aaron Rodgers Middle - 108 - 18.1%
2018 Aaron Rodgers Right - 235 - 39.3%
 

Guess not.  But maybe that's just how elite QBs work, right?

2018 - Tom Brady - targeted the middle on 149 of 570 throws, 26.2%
2018 - Patrick Mahomes - targeted the middle on 135 of 580 throws, 23.2%
2011 - Aaron Rodgers - targeted the middle on 143 of 502 throws, 28.4%

We can speculate all day about why this is going on, but at the end of the day the Packers offense is being hamstrung by a QB that now refuses to target a certain section of the field.  Targeting the middle of the field less than 20% of the time when arguably your second best receiver is your TE is madness.  Trust or not, you can't operate an offense this way unless you have absolute ballers on the outside, and the Packers don't.  Aaron needs to figure out what that big chunk of grass between the hashes is, and he needs to start throwing the ball there.

 

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AlexGreen#20

AlexGreen#20

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5 hours ago, chillparsi1 said:

.

It's not flawless analysis, but a pretty interesting read - reinforces what a lot of people have said. 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2020/5/7/21247582/aaron-rodgers-packers-pass-direction-middle-of-field-shot-selection-2019

 

 

Pretty much what most of us have been saying all along. Good data. 

If you hate checkdowns to RBs, throwing to TEs, throwing slant routes, and throwing deep ins, there's not much left in the middle of the field. Dude is paranoid about second level linebackers picking him off.

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MacReady

MacReady

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7 hours ago, chillparsi1 said:

It's not flawless analysis, but a pretty interesting read - reinforces what a lot of people have said. 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2020/5/7/21247582/aaron-rodgers-packers-pass-direction-middle-of-field-shot-selection-2019

****ing vindicated once again.

Look at that ****.  What an absolute pansy *** for ****'s sake, I knew it was bad I never knew it was that bad.  Holy ****, bench him.  WTH? 

Worst in the NFL.  Worst in the entire NFL at throwing in the middle. 

How has it taken this long for me to have the statistical evidence to prove what I've been saying all along? 

You watch him play and see receivers running wide ****ing open over the middle of the field and you wonder why I get so livid.

And you think other teams don't know this?  You think the Niners didn't know this?  The Chargers? 

It's pretty ****ing easy to defend against a QB when you know he hates throwing down the middle of the field.

Oh, this made me mad.  This made me really mad.  All the people who told me I'm imagining it. 

@Packerraymond, here is evidence to show that question you posited of Mahomes/Brees/Other quarterbacks not throwing to open receivers.  Aaron Rodgers is literally the last QB in the NFL when it comes to targeting the middle of the field.  You now have your answer.

Bench him.  Trade him.  I don't care about the lost money.  I don't care that Love needs time.  No, just hold up.  After this year trade him.  The 17 million in dead cap will be like paying 17 million dollars to open the middle of the field in our offense again.

Y'all wonder why our offense is so damn stagnant?  This is why. 

Oh I'm mad now.  I thought I was just using extreme hyperbole when I was saying Rodgers is the worst QB in the league at throwing to the middle of the field.  Now I see that even I'm not exaggerating. 

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gopackgo972

gopackgo972

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15 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

****ing vindicated once again.

Look at that ****.  What an absolute pansy *** for ****'s sake, I knew it was bad I never knew it was that bad.  Holy ****, bench him.  WTH? 

Worst in the NFL.  Worst in the entire NFL at throwing in the middle. 

How has it taken this long for me to have the statistical evidence to prove what I've been saying all along? 

You watch him play and see receivers running wide ****ing open over the middle of the field and you wonder why I get so livid.

And you think other teams don't know this?  You think the Niners didn't know this?  The Chargers? 

It's pretty ****ing easy to defend against a QB when you know he hates throwing down the middle of the field.

Oh, this made me mad.  This made me really mad.  All the people who told me I'm imagining it. 

@Packerraymond, here is evidence to show that question you posited of Mahomes/Brees/Other quarterbacks not throwing to open receivers.  Aaron Rodgers is literally the last QB in the NFL when it comes to targeting the middle of the field.  You now have your answer.

Bench him.  Trade him.  I don't care about the lost money.  I don't care that Love needs time.  No, just hold up.  After this year trade him.  The 17 million in dead cap will be like paying 17 million dollars to open the middle of the field in our offense again.

Y'all wonder why our offense is so damn stagnant?  This is why. 

Oh I'm mad now.  I thought I was just using extreme hyperbole when I was saying Rodgers is the worst QB in the league at throwing to the middle of the field.  Now I see that even I'm not exaggerating. 

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Arthur Penske

Arthur Penske

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36 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

I'll appreciate him once he starts appreciating the middle of the field. 

Hopefully he'll see this post and decide to start targeting the middle of the field like he did with throwing to RBs. After all, it can only be explained that Rodgers saw your RB posts and it had nothing to do with the coaching/scheme changes.

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ThatJerkDave

ThatJerkDave

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14 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Aaron Rodgers needs timeouts since he never gets to the line with more than 10 seconds left.

He doesn't get them any more because he used them on 2nd and 11 from his own 32 at the end of the 1st quarter.

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MacReady

MacReady

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Just now, ThatJerkDave said:

He doesn't get them any more because he used them on 2nd and 11 from his own 32 at the end of the 1st quarter.

THIS IS TRUE AND IT BOTHERS ME SO MUCH! 

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2018/10/18/17992880/do-the-packers-waste-timeouts-rodgers-mccarthy-yes-they-waste-a-ton-of-timeouts

https://thumbs.gfycat.com/OrnateSelfassuredBluebottle-mobile.mp4

https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/by-the-numbers/2019/1/7/18171169/wasted-timeouts-part-2-packers-aaron-rodgers-mike-mccarthy-cardinals-cowboys-mcvay-mahomes-nagy

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