Aaron Rodgers Appreciation Thread 4.20

[MacReady]

Watching Aaron's best plays against each team and I can't help but think if I hated the Packers I would be screaming at the defensive coordinator to send a corner blitz on those Hail Mary situations.

Cowboys playoff game Rodgers doesn't complete that to Cook if the Cowboys had sent a corner blitz. 
Cardinals playoff game Rodgers doesn't complete EITHER Janis Hail Mary attempt if Cardinals had sent a corner blitz.
Giants playoff Hail Mary doesn't happen with corner blitz.
Dickrod Hail Mary against Detroit doesn't happen with corner blitz.
Cobb TD that one time against the Bears doesn't happen with corner blitz.

So many of Aaron's greatest moments come from him immediately rolling out and heaving one. 

One of these days a coordinator is going to do that and it's going to suck. 

[wgbeethree]

While that first play could arguably be the most impressive play in the history of football it technically wasn't a play since it got called back for holding.

My vote vs. the Bears has to be the less than a minute left in the 4th quarter, down 1, week 17, 4th&8 touchdown to Cobb to win the division play.

Edited July 29, 2020 by wgbeethree

[KFP7]

2 hours ago, wgbeethree said:

While that first play could arguably be the most impressive play in the history of football it technically wasn't a play since it got called back for holding.

My vote vs. the Bears has to be the less than a minute left in the 4th quarter, down 1, week 17, 4th&8 touchdown to Cobb to win the division play.

Man the Bears must hate Rodgers so much.  

[Brat&Beer]

31 minutes ago, KFP7 said:

Man the Bears must hate Rodgers so much.  

Yep.

 

[ThatJerkDave]

Some of those... They probably don't feel very good about Randall Cobb either.

[Chili]

 

[vegas492]

14 hours ago, Chili said:

 

Aaron does nothing by accident.

4 shots.

I'm thinking it was a tribute to Favre now that he's dealing with what Favre dealt with.

Good thing Brett's number wasn't 16.

[vegas492]

Been thinking about this....Aaron Rodgers.

Let's think about Rodgers last year.  (Put his old God-like self on the shelf for the moment.)

Offensively speaking. 2019.  

New system, new coach.  (Not to mention 2 new faces on the OL)

Jones had 1,084 yards.  16 TD rushing.

Williams had one rushing TD.  (Rodgers got another one himself, rushing.)

Let's just say, 17 rushing TD's.

Rodgers had 62% completion %, 4002 yards.  26 TD's.  4 Int.

Would we be looking at him in a different light, if he had more passes in the red zone and Jones doesn't get 16 TDs?  What if Jones has 8 TD's, and we flip the other 8 to Rodgers passes?

62%, 4000+ yards.  34 TD's, 4 INT.

I think we all know that the % could be better, but dang, those would have been some IMPRESSIVE passing stats.

I'm looking at 2011 now.  Picked that because it was the year after the Super Bowl and I think we all can agree, we were pretty stacked on offense.

Grant/Starks combined for 3 TD's.  (1137 yards combined)  Kuhn added in another 4.  Call it 7 total.

Rodgers was God-like (off of the shelf).  68.3 completion %.  4643 yards.  45 TD's.  6 Int.  (Wow)

If I arbitrarily subtract 8 TD's and give them to running backs, that's  68.3%, 4,653+ yards. 37 TD's, 6 Int.

Now we are eerie similar.

Maybe it isn't a clear Rodgers regression as it is the incorporation of the MLF scheme?  Maybe there is even more hope for him in year 2 of the offense.

 

[MrBobGray]

39 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Been thinking about this....Aaron Rodgers.

Let's think about Rodgers last year.  (Put his old God-like self on the shelf for the moment.)

Offensively speaking. 2019.  

New system, new coach.  (Not to mention 2 new faces on the OL)

Jones had 1,084 yards.  16 TD rushing.

Williams had one rushing TD.  (Rodgers got another one himself, rushing.)

Let's just say, 17 rushing TD's.

Rodgers had 62% completion %, 4002 yards.  26 TD's.  4 Int.

Would we be looking at him in a different light, if he had more passes in the red zone and Jones doesn't get 16 TDs?  What if Jones has 8 TD's, and we flip the other 8 to Rodgers passes?

62%, 4000+ yards.  34 TD's, 4 INT.

I think we all know that the % could be better, but dang, those would have been some IMPRESSIVE passing stats.

I'm looking at 2011 now.  Picked that because it was the year after the Super Bowl and I think we all can agree, we were pretty stacked on offense.

Grant/Starks combined for 3 TD's.  (1137 yards combined)  Kuhn added in another 4.  Call it 7 total.

Rodgers was God-like (off of the shelf).  68.3 completion %.  4643 yards.  45 TD's.  6 Int.  (Wow)

If I arbitrarily subtract 8 TD's and give them to running backs, that's  68.3%, 4,653+ yards. 37 TD's, 6 Int.

Now we are eerie similar.

Maybe it isn't a clear Rodgers regression as it is the incorporation of the MLF scheme?  Maybe there is even more hope for him in year 2 of the offense.

 

The problem is that the reason Jones got so many redzone TDs is that Aaron struggled in the red zone.  

• 2019 Rodgers: 46 of 78 (59% completion), 295 yards, 16 TDs, 2 INTs
• 2011 Rodgers: 53 of 84 (63% completion), 358 yards, 29 TDs, 1 INT

Jones isn't the reason Rodgers completed less passes and threw almost half the TDs on basically the same number of passes.  Rodgers just simply wasn't good in the redzone and hasn't been since 2017.  In 2018 he went 27 of 61 (44%) for 215 yards, 16 TDs,  1 INT.  Even more damning, he did this despite having several of the best red zone receiving weapons in football on his team: Adams is continually one of the most productive receivers in the red zone (that continued even with Hundley), and Graham had been a legitimate weapon in the red zone literally the year before.  Looking at Graham's numbers shows the picture pretty starkly:

• 2017 Graham: 15 catches on 24 targets, 95 yards, 10 TDs in the redzone
• 2018 Graham: 3 catches on 8 targets, 31 yards, 2 TDs in the redzone
• 2019 Graham: 5 catches on 10 targers, 36 yards, 3 TDs in the redzone

Graham got less targets in 2018 + 2019 combined in the redzone than he did in one season in Seattle, and this was while Aaron was struggling in that area of the field.  Adams only had 3 TDs in the red zone after accounting for 12 in 2018, 8 in 2017, and 7 in 2016; this is despite them targeting him 18 times in the 12 games he played (the same or higher rate than every other year of his career).  Some of this may be MLF's offense, sure; but the fact is Aaron simply hasn't been producing close to the goal line regardless of personnel or head coach since he broke his collarbone.

[vegas492]

I know there are "red zone struggles" in there.  Outside of TD's, there's not a lot glaring there.  Probably had a lot to do with having Driver, Jennings, Jones, Nelson, Cobb and Finley in 2011.  Compared to...Adams, Graham, MVS, Allison, Kumerow, Lazard.

And it could be that MLF's offense needs better passing red zone plays.

Just trying to find ways to show that there is much hope for Rodgers in 2020. 

Take away some TD's from the running game, add some to the passing game and I guess I feel like his production on paper isn't all that far off from 2011, which was a remarkable year.

We know there is more to that and we know the warts he has now, but still....there is hope.

[squire12]

2011 passing offense is run on schedule.  Limited scramble drill/second reaction as a "foundation" of the offense.

 post 2014/2015 (maybe off on the years), passing offense has a strong scramble drill/second reaction tilt to it, rarely runs on schedule.

That works between the 20's, less so in the redzone.

[Siman08/OH]

16 TDs and 2 ints and we need to get rid of this scrub QB.

Lol.

Packers fans are spoiled rich kids.

[MrBobGray]

3 hours ago, Siman08/OH said:

16 TDs and 2 ints and we need to get rid of this scrub QB.

Lol.

Packers fans are spoiled rich kids.

Those numbers are really not impressive in the redzone.  Here's some other 2019 red zone numbers for comparison:

• Patrick Mahomes: 29 of 56 (52%), 206 yards, 11 TDs, 1 INTs
• Russell Wilson: 44 of 89 (49%), 360 yards, 25 TDs, 0 INTs
• Ryan Tannehill: 26 of 37 (70%), 181 yards, 14 TDs, 3 INTs
• Drew Brees: 39 of 56 (70%), 259 yards, 18 TDs, 1 INTs
• Jimmy Garoppolo: 46 of 73 (63%), 282 yards, 16 TDs, 2 INTs
• Kirk Cousins: 30 of 51 (59%), 187 yards, 16 TDs, 1 INT
• Dak Prescott: 32 of 61 (53%), 277 yards, 16 TDs, 0 INTs

So Rodgers is more or less interchangeable with Jimmy G, numbers-wise, and sits comfortably in that powerhouse tier of QBs that is Tannehill/Garoppolo/Cousins/Prescott; that's not where you want your QB to be if he's on a $30 mil+ APY contract.  Now, you might point out that Mahomes arguably did even worse, so it's all a sham!  But those numbers are misleading for a couple reasons: Mahomes was absolutely lighting it up before his injury, which meant he didn't spend a lot of time throwing in the redzone early on.  Through week 7, here's his numbers:

• On the Season: 157 of 241(65%), 2180 yards, 15 TDs, 1 INT
• Redzone only: 19 of 38 (50%), 5 TDs, 0 INTs

I can live with my stud QB being unproductive in the redzone when he's on his way to throwing for 38 TDs to 2.5 INTs.  Once he came back from his injury his play in general was not the level it had been pre-injury, but his redzone efficiency sky-rocketed:

• Redzone only (Weeks 10-17): 10 of 18 (56%), 6 TDs, 1 INT

And of course, there's also his 2018 redzone numbers:

• 63 of 96 (66%), 461 yards, 35 TDs, 1 INT

And again, this is not normal for Aaron.  2018 was the first time since 2009 that he played all 16 games and didn't throw at least 20 redzone TDs, and he immediately repeated the feat in 2019.  Look at 2016 and 2017 Aaron, which isn't even peak Rodgers:

• 2016 Aaron Rodgers: 64 of 105, 382 yards, 31 TDs, 0 INTs
• 2017 Aaron Rodgers (through week 6): 20 of 29, 119 yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs

Aaron has been one of the best red zone QBs of all time, right up until 2018, when he suddenly became above average, at best.  

Edited July 30, 2020 by MrBobGray
I can't read numbers

[squire12]

2 hours ago, MrBobGray said:

Those numbers are really not impressive in the redzone.  Here's some other 2019 red zone numbers for comparison:

• Patrick Mahomes: 29 of 56 (52%), 206 yards, 11 TDs, 1 INTs
• Russell Wilson: 44 of 89 (49%), 360 yards, 25 TDs, 0 INTs
• Ryan Tannehill: 26 of 37 (70%), 181 yards, 14 TDs, 3 INTs
• Drew Brees: 39 of 56 (70%), 259 yards, 18 TDs, 1 INTs
• Jimmy Garoppolo: 46 of 73 (63%), 282 yards, 16 TDs, 2 INTs
• Kirk Cousins: 30 of 51 (59%), 187 yards, 16 TDs, 1 INT
• Dak Prescott: 32 of 61 (53%), 277 yards, 16 TDs, 0 INTs

So Rodgers is more or less interchangeable with Jimmy G, numbers-wise, and sits comfortably in that powerhouse tier of QBs that is Tannehill/Garoppolo/Cousins/Prescott; that's not where you want your QB to be if he's on a $30 mil+ APY contract.  Now, you might point out that Mahomes arguably did even worse, so it's all a sham!  But those numbers are misleading for a couple reasons: Mahomes was absolutely lighting it up before his injury, which meant he didn't spend a lot of time throwing in the redzone early on.  Through week 7, here's his numbers:

• On the Season: 157 of 241(65%), 2180 yards, 15 TDs, 1 INT
• Redzone only: 19 of 38 (50%), 5 TDs, 0 INTs

I can live with my stud QB being unproductive in the redzone when he's on his way to throwing for 38 TDs to 2.5 INTs.  Once he came back from his injury his play in general was not the level it had been pre-injury, but his redzone efficiency sky-rocketed:

• Redzone only (Weeks 10-17): 10 of 18 (56%), 6 TDs, 1 INT

And of course, there's also his 2018 redzone numbers:

• 63 of 96 (66%), 461 yards, 35 TDs, 1 INT

And again, this is not normal for Aaron.  2018 was the first time since 2009 that he played all 16 games and didn't throw at least 20 redzone TDs, and he immediately repeated the feat in 2019.  Look at 2016 and 2017 Aaron, which isn't even peak Rodgers:

• 2016 Aaron Rodgers: 64 of 105, 382 yards, 31 TDs, 0 INTs
• 2017 Aaron Rodgers (through week 6): 20 of 29, 119 yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs

Aaron has been one of the best red zone QBs of all time, right up until 2018, when he suddenly became above average, at best.  

@MrBobGray your going to get yelled at for talking like this in the appreciation thread.   they are going to come after you

[Kepler]

5 hours ago, Siman08/OH said:

16 TDs and 2 ints and we need to get rid of this scrub QB.

Lol.

Packers fans are spoiled rich kids.

Get em