Prospects at Positions of Need

[G08]

@AZBearsFan Weber and Dexter Williams just don't do it for me, man.

I don't think you can flex either of those dudes out and have them be legit threats in the passing game. They're Jordan Howard with more speed/juice.

[AZBearsFan]

1 minute ago, G08 said:

@AZBearsFan Weber and Dexter Williams just don't do it for me, man.

I don't think you can flex either of those dudes out and have them be legit threats in the passing game. They're Jordan Howard with more speed/juice.

Agree about Williams. I think Weber has the capacity to do that but Ohio State doesn’t really do that with their backs. Didn’t with Zeke when he was there either and he clearly has the ability. 

[G08]

Looking at how Phillip Lindsay was a Pro Bowler as a rookie last season, it makes me think Justice Hill could follow in his footsteps if he joins the right team.

[Epyon]

Mitch will have to play a hell of a lot better than he did last year, if our scheme is putting that much weight on his shoulders.  He's shown flashes of some really special things (the march downfield to get into field goal range under immense pressure at the end of the Philly game was DAMN SPECIAL), that we all hope become more commonplace, but right now he's simply not yet good enough to outright carry the team, nor did he look particularly close to being there last year. We obviously will see how he changes year to year, and the EXPECTATION is that he will improve having a year of experience with the weapons we have and the system itself..... but I think it's a very large mistake to try and put all the weight on Trubisky's shoulders rather than instead trying to improve the RB position specifically and lighten the load, so to speak..

We've also had this debate a couple times already, but I don't at all agree that doing Running back by committee suddenly frees you up to put backup level players in starting roles on offense, particularly in the "RB1" Slot, which is going to be the bulk of the RB carries, and should easily represent the third most football touches of any player on the offense behind Mitch and the Center per snap.   If we said Quarterback by committee, it doesn't mean we could suddenly start Chase Daniels for 60+% of the snaps and not have a problem at the position 60+% of the time. Mizzell was part of a "Committee" last season and he was a gigantic liability the every snap he was on the field.  Now I don't think Davis is anywhere near as useless as Mizzell was (Mizzell showed no ability to even be a backup at the NFL level), but I also don't think he's remotely good enough or proven enough to be considered a viable RB1....

Finally, since this has become a fairly notable stat when researching draft prospects, I looked up Davis' speed score coming out of college, and he got a 96, which marks him as a near guarantee to not succeed. If anything, finding a role as a decent RB2-3 is already exceeding his projections.

 

[Epyon]

19 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

This is what I meant when I said long term answer - 4+ years of this. It’s one of the biggest reasons I like Weber - he may eventually be a 200+ carry guy and he may top out as a 125 carry guy but in either instance his skill set fits what we are looking for in that while he’s not necessarily great at any one thing he’s competent or better at everything. His greatest asset is that he’s a jack of all trades type of player. Same goes for Davis. They’re the anti-Howard in that their presence on the field doesn’t at all tip to the defense what we are looking to do. It allows maximum versatility for line checks to exploit where the defense is weak on any given play. That has so much value IMO. When you look at the most prolific RBs in the modern NFL the one thing they basically all have in common now is versatility at RB. Gurley, Bell, Barkley, Kamara, Hunt, Elliott, Johnson, Conner, Gordon, McCaffrey, Freeman, Michel, Lindsay, McCoy, Gore, Ingram, Mixon. They’re all two-way threats. We’ve been talking about the RB prospects in here for 4 months and we basically aren’t even considering anyone who isn’t a dual threat as a viable draft option like it’s a Nagy thing but it’s really not - it’s league wide. 

Regarding Weber specifically. I think he suffers from the same problem that Forte did in that they're more well rounded without a defining elite trait..... Now Forte obviously was a step (or several) above the level Weber looks to be at, but that lack of real peaks or valleys makes them harder to notice as players. Also granted Forte was elite level at receiving, but he always seemed to be that guy getting snubbed come pro bowl season all the same.

Back to Weber, He did score the 2nd highest speed score at the combine, which is something I guess... I'm higher on him than most, but I'm still looking at him as a 4th-5th round guy. His absolute ceiling might be a late third, if a team reaches for him in desperation, which concerns me a bit given where we are drafting... but Pace isn't reckless in his drafting, so I'm not TOO worried.  I think he's kind of floating in a pool with T. Williams, R. Armstead, and B. Love (gambling on upside) around that 4th round pick.

[soulman]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’s one of the biggest reasons I like Weber - he may eventually be a 200+ carry guy and he may top out as a 125 carry guy but in either instance his skill set fits what we are looking for in that while he’s not necessarily great at any one thing he’s competent or better at everything.

OK, but even you should agree that in no way are his running skills on par with many other backs we could also draft.  I think our goals are higher than he would be able to provide.  He'd be just another Bennie Cunningham at best.  If he's ever much more than that I owe you a beer. 

I would be shocked if Weber went before the 6th or 7th round and even going undrafted would not surprise me.  His lack of top shelf running talent tell me he's one of those guys who in the NFL will struggle to ever average 4.0 ypc.  If we drafted him late or signed him as an UDFA IMHO he would either end up on the PS or if he made the roster it would be as a #4 RB and ST guy.

[AZBearsFan]

48 minutes ago, soulman said:

OK, but even you should agree that in no way are his running skills on par with many other backs we could also draft.  I think our goals are higher than he would be able to provide.  He'd be just another Bennie Cunningham at best.  If he's ever much more than that I owe you a beer. 

I would be shocked if Weber went before the 6th or 7th round and even going undrafted would not surprise me.  His lack of top shelf running talent tell me he's one of those guys who in the NFL will struggle to ever average 4.0 ypc.  If we drafted him late or signed him as an UDFA IMHO he would either end up on the PS or if he made the roster it would be as a #4 RB and ST guy.

Most draft prospect rankings have Weber ranked somewhere in the range pretty closely aligned with T. Williams, Hill and Anderson and ahead of Armstead, Ozigbo and Mattison, all of whom carry consensus draftable grades. There are exceptions to either side on that (Matt Miller has Weber at 91 as his 7th highest RB and TDN has him at 223), but consensus seems to be in that round 4-5 range, so it’s not like I’m totally out of left field on him. We all have those opinions we value most in that regard but I think that 4-5 range for him is about right. I also think there are warts with all of the backs likely to be available in that range, and that while some of the other comparables have higher ceilings than Weber does they carry significantly more bust factor. Weber may ultimately only ever be average (though I see higher potential than that and think Cunningham is his absolute floor) but I also think the likelihood he’s at least an average #2 and COP back is reasonably high given his presumed draft position because he’s not significantly lacking in any area. For me he most closely aligns in that regard with Williams, on whom I have a similar grade. My opinion doesn’t require the agreement of anyone else and I’m not expecting to change your mind on him at all, and if I’m wrong in this one it won’t be the first time nor the last. Here’s hoping that if I’m wrong though that he’s drafted by someone else!  🤷‍♂️🍻

[soulman]

But I've shown you two, including the NFL's own rankings that don't even place him in the top 20.  NFL has him as a 6th round pick.

https://www.nfl.com/draft/tracker/prospects/RB?college=allColleges&page=2&status=ALL

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/mike-weber?id=32195745-4244-4499-2513-03a5f384271c

I realize these guys get shuffled around a lot prior to the draft but in no way do I see him climbing higher than the 5th and he could go lower once everyone grabs their backs.  I would be shocked if the Bears chose him over backs like T Will, Singletary, Hill, Mattison, Armstead, and a few others.

I'd love to have Damien Harris because I believe he's a very underrated back who could be around for a long time as a solid back for an inside zone scheme but chances of him falling to #87 don't look good.

I'm beginning to feel Pace won't even take his RB in round three if only because there is a wealth of backs slated for rounds for and five where he found both Howard and Cohen.  I could easily see him grabbing his TE there or a DB whose fallen farther than expected and then making a trade to move up in round four for a back.  He's done a lot of horse trading in the past with 4th round picks when it gets less costly to do it.  He might even trade his 5th and 2020 pick to get into four with two picks.  Pace has always been somewhat unpredictable in the middle rounds.

But....we'll know soon enough.

[G08]

6 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

My opinion doesn’t require the agreement of anyone else and I’m not expecting to change your mind ... at all

Ugh you sound like my wife... 

[soulman]

1 hour ago, G08 said:

Ugh you sound like my wife... 

LOL  Like my ex whose OS was always "Don't confuse me with facts, my mind's made up"......and she hasn't changed one bit over time.

If Pace decides to draft Weber or sign him as an UDFA I won't be upset but to think he's worth a priority pick for us in a draft where we have only three mid round picks would seem like a huge reach to me.  That said I'll be content to see how it all goes.  It's his ball game.

[AZBearsFan]

5 hours ago, soulman said:

LOL  Like my ex whose OS was always "Don't confuse me with facts, my mind's made up"......and she hasn't changed one bit over time.

If Pace decides to draft Weber or sign him as an UDFA I won't be upset but to think he's worth a priority pick for us in a draft where we have only three mid round picks would seem like a huge reach to me.  That said I'll be content to see how it all goes.  It's his ball game.

FWIW a pick in round 4 or 5 is not a priority pick just because we don’t have picks in the first two rounds. At least IMO. 

[soulman]

1 hour ago, AZBearsFan said:

FWIW a pick in round 4 or 5 is not a priority pick just because we don’t have picks in the first two rounds. At least IMO. 

What I meant was rounds 3-5 are priority picks for us because we lack picks in 1 and 2.

Despite drafting where we are our goal should be the same as if these were picks in round 1, 2, and 3.

We should be drafting two players who can contribute in 2019 and a future core player for 2020. 

We have our core starters and a couple of high upside guys on both sides of the ball already.  If I'm Pace this year I go for guys with a high floor because I'm not looking so much for future All Pros as I am solid core type good football players who can contribute in a rotation and maybe on ST but may also ascend to become starters in another year or two.  Young depth.

With so few picks we need to make those middle three count and use the 7th round and UDFA to look at taking some risks on guys with higher ceilings.  JMHO

[AZBearsFan]

1 minute ago, soulman said:

What I meant was rounds 3-5 are priority picks for us because we lack picks in 1 and 2.

Despite drafting where we are our goal should be the same as if these were picks in round 1, 2, and 3.

We should be drafting two players who can contribute in 2019 and a future core player for 2020. 

We have our core starters and a couple of high upside guys on both sides of the ball already.  If I'm Pace this year I go for guys with a high floor because I'm not looking so much for future All Pros as I am solid core type good football players who can contribute in a rotation and maybe on ST but may also ascend to become starters in another year or two.  Young depth.

With so few picks we need to make those middle three count and use the 7th round and UDFA to look at taking some risks on guys with higher ceilings.  JMHO

I agree about using the mid round picks to build depth with high floor guys. I also see a bunch of similarly rated players in that window where we have needs, and because of those two things I’d be all for trading down (somewhat) in round 3 and/or 4 with few exceptions if it nets us more picks in that window. By the value chart going from 87 to the mid 90s, a move that if we’re making it probably still gets us a guy we’d he comfortable taking at 87, should also net us about a late 4. Short of one of our top 2-3 guys who are probably a stretch at 87 being there making a move like this would be my priority. 

[soulman]

3 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

I agree about using the mid round picks to build depth with high floor guys. I also see a bunch of similarly rated players in that window where we have needs, and because of those two things I’d be all for trading down (somewhat) in round 3 and/or 4 with few exceptions if it nets us more picks in that window. By the value chart going from 87 to the mid 90s, a move that if we’re making it probably still gets us a guy we’d he comfortable taking at 87, should also net us about a late 4. Short of one of our top 2-3 guys who are probably a stretch at 87 being there making a move like this would be my priority. 

I was looking at an article on Pace's drafts since he's arrived and although I didn't post it after reading it we'd all come to the conclusion that previously he's done a lot of horse trading all over but even more so in the middle rounds moving up for a guy he wants AND moving back to pick up more picks.

This is what makes projecting much so difficult especially when there are multiple players at positions of need with similar rankings from so many sources.  But what we don't know is how has Pace got them ranked?

He's had a lot of success drafting players in those middle rounds others have either passed on or had ranked much lower.  So I fully expect his phone line to be busy looking to get who he wants and add picks if he can.  We could easily end up with another 4th or another 5th and I also believe it's possible if he has picks to spare he may take two RBs and/or two DBs.

In many ways this draft is a far bigger mystery and tougher to call than those where he's had 1st and 2nd round picks.

[BEAR FACE DOWN ARROW]

We have to face the fact that based on league wide odds, we might roll into the season with no one from this draft on the active roster, we're just picking so deep. 

 

Pace has done well in middle rounds, especially with non-premium spots like RB, but that's still pretty far from a guarantee. 

 

If we get 1 starter from this draft we're doing well.