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jsthomp2007

Who will Fall in the Draft

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Every year there are a few players that will fall from where we all thought they'd go.  Who do you all think will fall this year,  who you think the Broncos should make a move for, whether that is diving back into the first round, or moving up in the second, or I guess in any round? 

  • I am going Greedy Williams.  When the mocks started going out, he was top 10, now he is dropping to the end of the first.  Based on this trend, I think he could fall to the second round.  I'd say that the Broncos should make a move if he does drop, but I read he wasn't a very good tackler which doesn't fit the Fangio mold for a CB.  However, one CB that I would have been more than happy with at #10 who you haven't heard from in awhile is Deandre Baker.  If he is there in the second, I'd say nab him, and quickly.  

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I agree with both of your choices and I will add Noah Fant to that list as well. 

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Not all of these names are surprises, as they have injury, character, or a drop in production concerns, but here are some of mine.

Bryce Love- undersized, torn ACL, but at one point considered a top 20 pick...now 3rd/4th Round and some project later.  He doesn’t have Chris Johnson type of speed, but in terms of gametape I’ve seen, he’s the closest to it and reportedly Denver has shown some interest.  It appears he’ll go later than he should.

Jeffery Simmons- serious character concerns.  Also an ACL tear, but top 20 talent (some believe top 10) that could be there in round 2 and fit in any scheme.

Dexter Lawrence- At one time many draftnik’s had him as a top 5-10 pick, now on most boards he’s fallen behind his teammate Christian Wilkins.  I get the fall and really don’t disagree with it.  Big 2 down run stuffers aren’t valuable in today’s NFL and many of these “freaky” big men don’t set the world on fire in the NFL (Dontarie Poe/Danny Shelton), he also tested positive in a drug test to finish out his career at Clemson.  It wouldn’t surprise me if he goes round 1, but it also wouldn’t surprise me if he was sitting there as a mid round 2 or early 3rd.

Byron Murphy- His tape is great, when Greedy Williams started falling a bit, Murphy was the one jumping him.  PFF loves him and he has good tape, but his measurables are awful and it gives me, as a Bronco fan, some Alphonso Smith flashbacks (even though Murphy is bigger).  He gets propped up for his feet/ball skills (like Smith) but the 4.55 40 and 30 inch arms are very real concerns. Most have him as a late 1st/early 2nd, which is too high and I could see him falling into the 3rd, maybe even 4th.

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^^^ To add to that I think we see some OL fall just because of the depth, but I couldn’t name which one because I like all of them, but they all have their own strengths/concerns.  By fall I also don’t mean a guy there in the late 3rd or 4th, but I think there will be some good OLs in the mid/late 2nd.  I’ve seen all of Taylor, Williams, Ford, Dillard, Bradbury, Lindstrom, McCoy, Risner, Jenkins, Little, and McGary with 1st round grades.  That isn’t even getting into good prospects that don’t get talked about like Dieter, Jordan, Davis, Howard (and I probably am forgetting some) who could be potential 2nd round picks in their own right and jump some of these guys, but are projected in rounds 3/4....just a deep OL class.

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I think Murphy will fall because of scheme fit, not who he is as a player. He's the best zone corner in this draft bar none. In that kind of system, he will be insanely successful. Press man? He'll fail.

I think there's somewhat of a chance some of these WRs fall. I could see Metcalf falling (or going Top 8). Ed Oliver seems to be falling some. I could see Rashan Gary falling a bit as well. Mack Wilson is someone I think will go a LOT lower than people might expect because he's really not that good. 

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On 4/14/2019 at 3:25 PM, broncos67 said:

I think Murphy will fall because of scheme fit, not who he is as a player. He's the best zone corner in this draft bar none. In that kind of system, he will be insanely successful. Press man? He'll fail.

I think there's somewhat of a chance some of these WRs fall. I could see Metcalf falling (or going Top 8). Ed Oliver seems to be falling some. I could see Rashan Gary falling a bit as well. Mack Wilson is someone I think will go a LOT lower than people might expect because he's really not that good. 

Yeah, Mack Wilson isn’t all that impressive.  Even after a down year he was propped up because he was an excellent athlete and then turned in a 4.74 40 at his pro day (and everyone runs faster at their pro days).  He’s an average prospect that I agree falls further than he’s slated by most.

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Posted (edited)

Re: Jeffrey Simmons, that character concern is really overblown.  He got into a fight that his sister was having in high school, and nothing in his Ole Miss time suggests it's a recurring theme (unlike DV cases, where there's a huge flag for recurrence).   His entire HS and then Ole Miss time raised no flags, so while I understand the optics, this really doesn't compare to the higher-profile examples ppl worry about. The ACL derailed what was likely a top 10-15 draft spot.  If we could snag him at 2.11, as much as that's not a priority for us, as long as there are no other flags raised that are legit, I would be THRILLED.

https://maroonandwhitenation.com/2016/03/28/examining-the-facts-in-the-jeffrey-simmons-situation/

I agree Baker and Greedy are falling.  The size/fit concerns are what's cited.  Given their tape,  I think whoever gets them will likely be getting major value.

The WR class is so deep, there's going to be guys there who will get picked at least half to a full round later than in other years.   For the life of me, I wish I could tell you which one lol.  DK Metcalf and Parris Campbell won't be in that group after their stock rose like helium in the shorts and T-shirt season, and I suspect Marquise Brown will find his way in Rd 1 (Campbell could fall to Rd2, but that's not crazy IMO).   Given our long-term need for a 2nd outside WR, this is the year to think Day 2/early Day 3, chance to mine great value.

Because there are 3 very sought after TE's, I mentioned it in the other thread, but TE's will fall, and there's another opportunity for us.  You tell me that we have Jace Sternberger, Knox or Caleb Wilson from Day 3, while I love Hockenson, I'd be thrilled with that plan B (which we absolutely need to target this year).

The guy who's definitely set to fall is Gary.  His senior season tape underwhelmed (Winovich outplayed him at times), and now the labrum tear puts a huge flag on his rookie year (even if he waits until the offseason next year to address, it will delay his strength and conditioning training then, and year 1 is likely nowhere near his peak - for a round 1 pick, putting 1 year as redshirt and year 2 without a full strength/conditioning offseason, that's pretty iffy unless you are truly elite - and the senior season puts that assessment very much in question).   His positional fit in the NFL was already somewhat of a question - when you get 2-3 factors like this pooling this late, I could easily see him fall outside of Day 1, which was unthinkable this time last year. 

 

Edited by Broncofan

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