Projecting the Careers of the 2019 Quarterback Class

[HoboRocket]

2 hours ago, AlNFL19 said:

Neither is projected by Scouts Inc. to be a Day 1-2 prospect, so I didn't include them, but here are their projections:

Regular Projection:

T. Jackson, QB, Buffalo
Statistic	Figure
Projected AV	3.22
Bust Chance	89.81%
PB Chance	2.98%

 

C. Thorson, QB, Northwestern
Statistic	Figure
Projected AV	1.36
Bust Chance	>99.90%
PB Chance	<1.00%

Experience-Adjusted Projection:

 

T. Jackson, QB, Buffalo
Statistic	Figure
Projected AV	3.21
Bust Chance	89.88%
PB Chance	2.91%

 

C. Thorson, QB, Northwestern
Statistic	Figure
Projected AV	1.39
Bust Chance	>99.90%
PB Chance	<1.00%

Either way, the model hates both of them. Starting a million games wasn't enough for Thorson to overcome some dreadful statistics.

**Keep in mind, statistics for quarterbacks drafted after Round 3 are even more unreliable than before (which is certainly saying something), so these projections might be more off than the other ones will be.

Hey, no worries. I was just curious. And even if your model doesn't correctly predict a career, there's no proof that it's "wrong," since it just give a percent chance that something will happen. I think it would be hard to disprove a probability figure, since this is theoretical.

[AlNFL19]

3 minutes ago, HoboRocket said:

Hey, no worries. I was just curious. And even if your model doesn't correctly predict a career, there's no proof that it's "wrong," since it just give a percent chance that something will happen. I think it would be hard to disprove a probability figure, since this is theoretical.

Yeah. I think it's kind of useful. It does show the fact that, really, quarterbacks drafted in the third round will basically amount to nothing if they didn't have dominant college statistics like Russell Wilson did. It has been historically pretty close with its probabilities:

Projection: >5.00 AV
Threshold	Reality	Projected Avg.
Pro Bowl	44.44%	40.63%
Hit	55.56%	49.60%
Bust	44.44%	50.40%

 

Projection: <5.00 AV
Threshold	Reality	Projected Avg.
Pro Bowl	4.76%	12.46%
Hit	9.52%	18.12%
Bust	90.48%	81.88%

[AlNFL19]

Here are the updated projections for Rounds 1-3 quarterbacks based on real draft position. 

2019 NFL Quarterback Class Projections
Player	Projected AV	Bust Chance	PB Chance
K. Murray	7.33	25.72%	64.22%
D. Haskins	5.49	54.33%	36.88%
D. Jones	5.29	57.45%	33.90%
D. Lock	4.99	62.19%	29.37%
W. Grier	3.08	91.86%	1.02%

2019 NFL Quarterback Class Experience-Adjusted Projections
Player	Projected AV	Bust Chance	PB Chance
K. Murray	7.16	28.32%	61.74%
D. Haskins	5.36	56.37%	34.93%
D. Jones	5.31	57.15%	34.18%
D. Lock	5.03	61.52%	30.01%
W. Grier	3.05	92.38%	<1.00%

Some notes:

• Lock being drafted 42nd was the worst possible thing that could've happened to him from a projection standpoint. It was enough to drop his projection behind Jones, and finish below the dreaded 5.0 line in regular projection. However, I'd take that with a grain of salt - it's 4.99, so it's close enough, and if he went 41st, it's over 5.0. His experience-adjusted projection was barely above 5.0.
• The model hated Jones at first, but his projection was boosted massively by, ironically, the Giants' own gaffe in picking the guy sixth overall. However, draft position has a pretty large baring on NFL success, so it helps Jones' projection. Before the draft, his projection was pretty bad.
• Murray being the No. 1 overall pick boosts his regular projection, and experience-adjusted projection, to No. 1 all time (since 2006) at 7.33 and 7.16, respectively. His projection seems to indicate a lot of future success, and I'm on board too.
• Finley and Stidham were at one point projected to be Day 2 picks, but they fell to Day 3, becoming ineligible for the model in retrospect.

[AlNFL19]

Update: Pretty soon I think I'm going to get to work on actual stat line projections. Besides completion percentage, yards, touchdowns, or interceptions, are there any statistics anyone would like to see projected based on the AV projections?

[AlNFL19]

Due to the very spotty history of drafted quarterbacks statistically speaking, projections for prospects are never pretty at the position if they're believable. There is always the inherent danger that a draft pick, especially a quarterback, will bust. Anyways, here's the projected stat lines for this year's top quarterback prospects - **these are obviously very conservative projections because a lot of the data comes from third-round busts who barely threw an NFL pass.**

1. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals: 7.33 AV, 59.37% completion rate, 2,274 passing yards, 13.44 TDs, 9.02 INTs, 80.25 Passer Rating, 5.28 ANY/A

2. Dwayne Haskins, Washington: 5.49 AV, 58.68% completion rate, 1,809 passing yards, 10.30 TDs, 8.04 INTs, 77.51 Passer Rating, 4.96 ANY/A

3. Daniel Jones, New York Giants: 5.29 AV, 58.60% completion rate, 1,759 passing yards, 9.96 TDs, 7.91 INTs, 77.21 Passer Rating, 4.93 ANY/A

4. Drew Lock, Denver Broncos: 4.99 AV, 58.49% completion rate, 1,682 passing yards, 9.44 TDs, 7.71 INTs, 76.76 Passer Rating, 4.87 ANY/A

5. Will Grier, Carolina Panthers: 3.08 AV, 57.77% completion rate, 1,199 passing yards, 6.19 TDs, 3.05 INTs, 73.91 Passer Rating, 4.54 ANY/A

As I said, ugly. Real ugly. I'll probably do some statistical projections for other positions eventually, which probably (hopefully) won't be quite so ugly.