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Day 3 QB options for 2019


squire12

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Been thinking about this for the last few days.  Does anyone have any Day 3 QB that you like that might be options for GB?   Not sure what MLF will want in a back up, whether that would be Kizer or someone that he might view as a better back up to Rodgers.  

 Jarrett Stidham,  Jordan Ta'Amu, Will Grier are 3 that I think would be intriguing

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I’m a fan of Easton Stick, but I don’t think he can start in the league. He’s more of a career backup. Amir Hall is one I’ve been looking at today, I’m pretty intrigued. His ball placement is really good plus he has athletic upside I like in backup QBs.

 

Edited by deathstar
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Keep in mind that I have spent VERY little time looking at QBs, but:

Brett Rypien is my late round guy. I just look at the offense Boise State runs and they ask him to do a lot of the same stuff that I envision a Packers LaFleur offense trying to do. He's a smooth QB off of play-action and can direct motion and find the mismatch in bunch formations (admittedly sometimes he locks in to that pre-determined mismatch). He doesn't have a ton of arm strength, but he doesn't have a long release either. I think for a backup type, accuracy and snappy release is more important than deep arm strength anyway. After all, if he had a cannon, he'd be going a lot higher.   

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7 minutes ago, Isherwood said:

Keep in mind that I have spent VERY little time looking at QBs, but:

Brett Rypien is my late round guy. I just look at the offense Boise State runs and they ask him to do a lot of the same stuff that I envision a Packers LaFleur offense trying to do. He's a smooth QB off of play-action and can direct motion and find the mismatch in bunch formations (admittedly sometimes he locks in to that pre-determined mismatch). He doesn't have a ton of arm strength, but he doesn't have a long release either. I think for a backup type, accuracy and snappy release is more important than deep arm strength anyway. After all, if he had a cannon, he'd be going a lot higher.   

I have not looked at many QB.  Mostly by looking at other players at WR or TE you can get a sense of QB as well.  .

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2 hours ago, squire12 said:

Been thinking about this for the last few days.  Does anyone have any Day 3 QB that you like that might be options for GB?   Not sure what MLF will want in a back up, whether that would be Kizer or someone that he might view as a better back up to Rodgers.  

 Jarrett Stidham,  Jordan Ta'Amu, Will Grier are 3 that I think would be intriguing

Will Grier is the only one I know well out of these, and that's because he had so much hype coming into 2018. I guess I think he has a lot of potential, but he was in a bad situation. That's the story with a lot of guys though. Out of the 3 you named, he's definitely another one I'd consider. 

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23 minutes ago, Isherwood said:

Will Grier is the only one I know well out of these, and that's because he had so much hype coming into 2018. I guess I think he has a lot of potential, but he was in a bad situation. That's the story with a lot of guys though. Out of the 3 you named, he's definitely another one I'd consider. 

I would not be looking to take a QB in the first 2 days.  But once you get to that 4th round, a developmental option if MLF feels that Kizer is not the answer for a backup he prefers.  

I would keep taking a later round QB in hopes of finding one that could be a decent replacement for Rodgers in 4-5 years.  

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Before I answered I just wanted to take a peek at the QBs MLF has worked with recently. 

2018- Titans OC 

  • Marcus Mariota (inherited) 6'4"/222 (don't think he played this heavy last season, but he did add 5 to 10 lbs this off-season)
  • Blaine Gabbert (signed from Cardinals in 2018 as FA) 6'4"/235
  • Luke Falk (drafted in the 6th Round) 6'4"/215 

2017- Rams OC

  • Jared Goff (inherited) 6'4"/222
  • Sean Mannion (inherited) 6'6"/223 
  • Aaron Murray (signed in off-season and waived before TC) 6'1"/207 
  • Dylan Thompson (Former UDFA: signed when Murray was wavied) 6'3"/215 

2016- Falcons QB Coach

  • Matt Ryan (inherited) 6'4"/217 
  • Matt Schaub (signed March 2016) 6'6"/245
  • Matt Simms (signed to PS in September 2015 after waived by Bills) 6'3"/210
  • Sean Renfree (inherited/ Falcons 7th RD pick in 2013) 6'5"/225 
  • Alex Ross (signed as 2016 UDFA) 6'0"/200 

2015- Falcons QB Coach 

  • Matt Ryan (inherited) 6'4"/217
  • Sean Renfree (inherited/ Falcons 7th RD pick in 2013) 6'5"/225
  • TJ Yates (re-signed to 1 year/1.5 Million Contract in March 2015 after acquired in 2014 trade) 6'4"/217

Ya'll better give me some love for digging through off-season 90 man rosters and transactions from the last four years. 

Basic Analysis: 

  • Only 1 QB drafted in the last 4 years by teams with LaFleur as OC or QB Coach (Luke Falk-2018) 
  • Of the 8 QBs acquired (not previously rosterred or had to be re-signed due to expiring contracts) by LaFleur teams--6 of them were 6"3" or taller AND 210 lbs or heavier. 
  • Both QBs acquired that were below these thresholds probably never had much of a shot to make the final roster (Murray [6'1"/207]- signed in the spring and waived before the end of OTAs & Alex Ross [6'0"/200] was likely signed as a TC arm (QB4) behind Schaub and Renfree in 2016. 
  • So-- if you remove Murray and Ross-- All of the remaining six QBs that had a legitimate shot at a 53 man roster spot (Yates, Schaub, SImms, Thompson, Falk and Gabbert) were at least 6'3" and 210+lbs. 
  • The average of all 8 QBs acquired w/ LaFleur teams: 6'3.125"/ 218lbs 
  • The average of the 6 QBs acquired that had a legitimate shot to make 53 w/ LaFleur teams: 6'4"/223lbs 
  • Matt LaFleur was the Redskins QB Coach (2010-2013) and went through the whole RG3 debacle (inability to stay healthy), so that may be another reason he prefers larger QBs.
  • LaFleur teams have carried an average of 3.25 QBs on the 90 man roster over the last 4 seasons. More specifically--that means LaFleur teams have carried only 3 QBs on the 90 man roster every year (2015, 2017 & 2018) except 2016 when they rostered an UDFA QB as QB4 (likely just a TC arm)
  • Kizer (6'4"/235) and Boyle (6'4"/232) both seem to fit perfectly the LaFleur model for developmental QBs, and I don't see Boyle being released to add another QB to the roster. 
Edited by Cadmus
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As I have stated from the beginning, I don't think the Packers spend a DP at the QB position because I think MLF (and Gute) probably want to see what they have in both Kizer and Boyle (w/ a new staff and offense) before they draft another QB. 

Could Lock be an option if he falls to 30? Sure, but I don't see that happening. 

Before I looked at MLF's history, I was going to recommend 2 names that hadn't been mentioned yet: Manny Wilkins and Eric Dungey. I'm not sure either will be drafted, but after looking at MLF's QB rosters the last few years I think it would be hard to envision GB signing Wilkins. If your S&C feels they can get him up to 208+ after a year in the NFL he could be a fantastic backup with the potential for a Tyrod-esque career, but there are definitely concerns at his current size (6'2"/195). 

Purely based on general size trends, the Day 3/PFA QBs that match MLF's tendencies most closely are: 

Jordan Ta'amu (6025/221), Kyle Shurmur (6040/230), Eric Dungey (6026/226), Taylor Cornelius (6055/224), Clayton Thorson (6040/222), and Jake Dolegala (6065/241) 

I think it'd also be reasonable to assume the following are tall (and heavy) enough to at least warrant consideration, but don't necessarily fit the MLF mold. Easton Stick (6012/220), Taryn Christion (6015/218), Gardner Minshew (6007/225). 

For individuals looking for Day 3/PFA QBS that match what MLF likes those 9 QBs are probably a good place to start. From that list, I think only Ta'amu, Stick and Thorson are near-locks to be drafted while the rest all have a chance to sneak in at the end of Day 3 (although I would consider Cornelius, Christion and Dungey unlikely to be drafted). 

Of the QBs that should be drafted: I think Ta'amu and Stick are the most likely targets. 

Of the QBs that will be PFAs: I still think Dungey represents the most likely target. He struggled with injuries in college because he's an aggressive player,  but he has all the requisite skills to be a competent backup in the NFL. He also possesses the size and athleticism that LaFleur seems to gravitate towards with regard to his backup QBs. 

My Prediction: Packers don't spend a DP on a QB in the 2019 NFL Draft (IF they do on Day 3, I'd bet on Ta'amu). They decide to roll with Rodgers, Kizer and Boyle in the QB room, and they *possibly* add a UDFA QB with plus size and at least above average arm talent (seems to be the MLF trend). Dungey would be my pick from the UDFA lot, but there are clearly other interesting options. 

 

Edited by Cadmus
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14 minutes ago, deathstar said:

Great work @Cadmus. I love Dungeys aggressive plays. If it weren’t for the injuries he should be drafted. Watching him I kept noticing Jamal Custis, who I think bails some of Dungeys deep passes out. But Dungey fits our athletic thresholds, both RAS and the ones you laid out.

Custis is also a stud, so that helps. 

Honestly, he might be my favorite Day 3 WR. 

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