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Predictions for Picks 1- 49 & Why We Must Trade Up to at Least 35


Mind Character

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Picks 1-49, All-32 Teams Needs Best-Player Value Optimized Draft Predictions -- How I see draft day going if we don't trade up.

                   *takes into account not only team-centric dynamics but also how I think personnel execs actually view the various players' value not based on how the draftnik community views them per se.

Round 1

1. Arizona Cardinals -- Kyler Murray, QB Oklahoma
2. San Francisco 49ers -- Nick Bosa, DE Ohio St. 
3. New York Jets -- Quinnen Williams, DT/DE Alabama (goes here instead of Allen b/c Williams is in a different stratosphere imo in terms of impact value)
4. Oakland Raiders -- Ed Oliver, DT Houston (Allen is not a scheme fit and Oliver used as a 3-tech instead of NT like at Houston will be a completely different unleashed player)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers -- Josh Allen, 34OLB Kentucky        
6. New York Giants --
Jawaan Taylor, OT Florida      
7. Jacksonville Jaguars --
Devin White, LB LSU (too great to pass up w/ questions regarding Telvin Smith's committment and Myles Jack's long-term durability)

8. **Trade** Washington (via Detroit) -- Drew Lock / QB Missouri (will be the most idiotic pick of the 1st round)                                                                                                                                                    
9. Buffalo --
 D.K. Metcalf, WR Ole Miss.                                                                                                                                                                  
10. Denver Broncos --
 Dwayne Haskins, QB Ohio St.                                                                      
11. Cincinnati Bengals -- 
Devin Bush / LB Michigan                                                                                      
12. **Trade** Atlanta Falcons (via Green Bay Packers) --
Rashan Gary / EDGE Michigan                                                                         
13.  Miami Dolphins --
Andre Dillard / OT Washington                                                     
14.  **Green Bay Packers (via Atlanta) -- 
T.J Hockenson / TE Iowa

15. **Detroit Lions (via Washington) -- Jonah Williams, OT Alabama                    
16. Carolina Panthers --
Dalton Risner / OL  Kansas St.                                                                                    
17. New York Giants --
Dexter Lawrence, NT Clemson                                                                                    
18. Minnesota Vikings -- 
Cody Ford, OG/RT Oklahoma                                                                                                      
19. Tennessee Titans --
 Garrett Bradbury / OC N. Carolina St.                                                 
20. Pittsburgh Steelers --
Byron Murphy, CB Washington                        
21. Seattle Seahawks --
Nasir Adderley / FS Delaware                                                           
22. Baltimore Ravens -- 
Brian Burns, 34OLB Florida St.                                                                                                                                                         
23. Houston Texans --
Greg Little, OT Ole Miss
24. Oakland Raiders --  Julian Love / CB  Notre Dame                                                                        
25. Philadelphia Eagles --
 Deandre Baker / CB Georgia                                                                      
26. Indianapolis Colts --
Jonathan Abram, SS Miss. St.

27. Oakland Raiders -- Jerry Tillery / DT Notre Dame                                         
28. Los Angeles Chargers -- 
Christian Wilkins / DT Clemson                                                                                                                                                                  
29. Kansas City Chiefs --
 Marquise Brown / WR Oklahoma                                               
30. **Trade** New England Patriots (via Green Bay Packers) --
Noah Fant / TE Iowa                                                                                                        
31. Los Angeles Rams --
 Tytus Howard, OT Alabama State                                                                    
32. **Green Bay Packers (via New England) --
A.J. Brown / WR Ole Miss.           

Round 2

33. Arizona -- Chris Lindstrom, OG Boston College
34. Indianapolis -- Lonnie Johnson Jr., CB Kentucky                                                                      
35. Oakland -- 
Josh Jacobs / RB Alabama                              
36. San Francisco --
Taylor Rapp, SS Washington                                               
37. **Trade**  Arizona (via NYG: AZ sends Josh Rosen to N.Y. Giants) -- 
Hjalte Froholdt, OC Arkansas                                    
38. Jacksonville --
Daniel Jones, QB Duke                                                                                                       .
39. Tampa Bay --
Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, S/NDB Florida                                                                              
40. Buffalo --
Rock Ya-Sin / CB Temple    
41. Denver -- Max Scharping / OT Northern Illinois                               
42. Cincinnati --
Greedy Williams. CB LSU                                                             
43. Detroit --
Irv Smith Jr. / TE Alabama            
44. Green Bay -- 
Hakeem Butler, WR Iowa State                                                                                                                                                                       
45. Atlanta --
Clelin Ferrell / DE Clemson                                              
46. Washington --
Chase Winovich / 34OLB Michigan 
47. Carolina -- Jace Sternberger, TE Texas A&M                                                         
48. Miami -- 
Darnell Savage, SS Maryland
49. Cleveland -- Jeffery Simmons, DT Miss. St. // LJ Collier, DT-Convert TCU // Dre’Mont Jones, DT Ohio State 

Montez Sweat, DE Miss. St (***Falls b/c either the medical concern is too risky for various teams in the 1st round or teams valued others more***) 

--------------------------------------------

Reasons why we have to trade up to at least pick 35:

I used to think that it would be better to stay at 49 and let the board fall to us. I also used to believe that it would be more prudent to trade up from round 3 into round 2 instead of round 2 into round 1. I no longer believe those things.

I've studied all 32 Team Rosters analyzing their respective team needs ... I intently watched the vast majority of the top 90 prospects and more analyzing their football traits, skills, and value... (with pants down around my ankles the ALL22 VR on my face w/ a box of tissues at the ready.... lol ... joking... or am I?!?) I've thought long and hard about this draft prospect pool from a bird's eye view recently I've run multiple mental simulations about how the board will fall. As a result, at the end of this draft season 5 things are Certain in my mind:

1.) There's an extremely improbable chance that one of the quality impact Strong Safeties/Hybrid Safeties (i.e., Jonathan Abram, Nasir Adderley, Taylor Rapp, Darnell Savage) makes it to 49 except for maybe Chauncey Gardner-Johnson  and he's  not the best scheme fit. There are 7 Teams with needs selecting before us in the 2nd round w/ critical safety position needs for which our targeted impact safeties are a scheme fit (i.e., 49ers -- Jaquiski Tartt; Colts -- Clayton Geathers; Tampa Bay -- Jordan Whitehead; Dolphins -- Reshad Jones; Lions -- Tracy Walker; Panthers -- Da'Norris Searcy). Additionally, there are 3 teams toward the latter portion of round 1 that fall into the same category of safety's that we desire need (i.e., Chiefs -- Daniel Sorenson and desires hybrid safeties; Seattle -- Lost Earl Thomas and desires hybrid safeties; and to a lesser extent the Cowboys -- Jeff Heath/George Iloka). The value maximization selection range for Safeties is late 1st to early 2nd. They'll go somewhere between picks range 21 to 36 imo. Therefore, we'd have to get in that range to have an opportunity to select one of the top talents. The only two that make it beyond range are Darnell Savage (small chance) and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson (better chance).

2.) There's an extremely improbable chance that one of the often mocked in draftnik media late 1st quality impact DTs (Jerry Tillery; Christian Wilkins) makes it beyond pick 34 except for Jeffery Simmons (good chance) and LJ Collier (even better chance). Dre’Mont Jones, DT Ohio State will likely be available but I don't see him as an impact player.  .

3.) There's an extremely improbable chance that one of the starter impact quality impact CBs (Julian Love; Byron Murphy; Lonnie Johnson Jr.) makes it beyond pick 29. I have a strong feeling that Greedy Williams will be available at 49. If so, I hope we pass. Deandre Baker due to film, campus-reports, and his draft process work/non-work also has a solid chance of making it to 49.

4.) There's an extremely improbable chance that one of the starter impact quality impact LT/RTs makes it to 49.5.) If the impact safeties, cornerbacks, DTs, and even OLs are gone by pick 49, we should trade down multiple time accumulating present and future draft capital instead of wasting the value of the pick on other positions.

Edited by Mind Character
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Simmons would be great at 49. I could see him go centre here. It wouldn't surprise if Bradbury drops, with a relatively good tackle class, there hasnt been a great year for tackles since 16. 

Dorsey likes the safety class he will back himself to get 1 late. If I was too guess I'd say we are more likely to cb than safety. 

If we could get a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year for 49 and some change later in the draft I'd take it in a trade back. Always trade back.

 

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2 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

But why would he? Teams value the C position quite a bit and Bradbury is one of the best I've evaluated. And I'm not an outlier in that regard; everyone likes him.

I don't think he "drops" so much as the position just isn't valued highly so even the best of the best go late teens but most go in the 20s.

He's the best zone-scheme center I've ever seen. He struggles with power and straight line anchoring in traditional schemes that don't require as much horizontal movement, flexibility, and seal and reach blocks. In those traditional schemes he's still a 1st rounder b/c of how good he is, but he may fall some if zone schemes have other priorities. The fall wouldn't be far though.

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6 hours ago, Kiwibrown said:

Simmons would be great at 49. I could see him go centre here. It wouldn't surprise if Bradbury drops, with a relatively good tackle class, there hasnt been a great year for tackles since 16. 

Dorsey likes the safety class he will back himself to get 1 late. If I was too guess I'd say we are more likely to cb than safety. 

If we could get a 3rd this year and a 2nd next year for 49 and some change later in the draft I'd take it in a trade back. Always trade back.

If we don't trade up, we have to trade back.

I like Simmons a lot, but watching film I've never seen a lineman put so much stress on one knee due to awkward one leg base anchoring positions. I had it in my notes before he even tore his ACL in training. I don't see his knee holding up long-term b/c it's about his core flexibility not just technique. I saw similar issue with Dre'Mont Jones. I hope not, but I see them both having knee issues for a long-time.

That's why as much as I like Simmons, I think it would be better to trade back and do so multiple times out of the 2nd creating both a 2nd; 3rd; and 4th for next year's draft, as well as a 5th and 6th in this year's draft that could be used to convert into 2020 picks, to trade up, and/or trade away for veteran players. I'd then target DT LJ Collier with our 1st 3rd rounder via trade then I'd target one of the next tier of CB at the top portion of round 3 such as Nik Needham, CB UTEP with our own 3rd rounder if he's still available (he should be).

So, all in all trading out of the 2nd via two trades could yield us.

3rd(via trade). LJ Collier, DT TCU

3rd(our own). Nik Needham, CB UTEP

2019 5th; (let's say we trade this along with other picks to get a 2nd 4th round pick to target a player)

2019 6th (let's say we trade it away for a future 6th and 7th in 2020 that can be used in a package with other picks for veteran cap casualty trades next year)

2020 2nd ;

2020 3rd;

2020 4th

I'd rather that haul then Jeff Simmons b/c I have doubts about his longterm knee health and I think Colliers going to be very disruptive once converted to a 3-tech.

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4 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

But why would he? Teams value the C position quite a bit and Bradbury is one of the best I've evaluated. And I'm not an outlier in that regard; everyone likes him.

Players can fall for no good reason, or has happened before. 

The factors it would be are perceived value at other positions or otherwise set at centre. 

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1 minute ago, DawgX said:

I'd be shocked if the Giants passed on Haskins. Then again, I was a bit shocked that they passed on Darnold last year.

Bro, they have Eli. 

 

Seriously though I watched some obj games and eli sprays the ball all over the show, high, low, behind, the ball wasnt going where he wanted it at least 10% of the time.

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Numbers do not lie and the facts substantiate trading up to 1st round.  Simple fact is success rate, 5 yr control, and starting caliber with possible Pro Bowl possibilities.  Raiders likely target in trade with our multiple picks and Duke.

At this point, Browns really do not have to fill the roster like last year as Dorsey has done a very solid job with the roster having talent and depth in all positions.

For me personally, I would be delighted in picking up starting CB, S, or OLB in first round with Duke and 3,4,5 picks 2019 and 2020 5th.  Or, Duke with 2 and 5,6 this year.

If we cannot find a trade partner, I think Dorsey will pick if there is a talented player he likes or trade for next year or player.

 

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12 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

IF we got raiders 27 for 49 adnd duke and 5th I'd do it, albeit reluctantly.

I'm with you there ... That would be remarkable b/c I doubt we get more than a 5th for Duke b/c he likely uses his leverage to never show up again to even voluntary OTAs to solidify his trade demand. With so much positivity around the team, Dorsey will give in to his trade demand to avoid distractions.. So, two 5ths (value wise) to move up 22 spots would be an amazing trade. I'd do it in an instant although I never wanted to trade Duke but we're beyond the point of return now imo.

It would probably take at least Duke and a 3rd.

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13 minutes ago, Kiwibrown said:

IF we got raiders 27 for 49 adnd duke and 5th I'd do it, albeit reluctantly.

I think that’s a no-brainer.

Problem is I don’t think that gets you close to pick 27.

I think people are underestimating how much it could take to move up that far, into the 1st. 

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