Jump to content

(Pick 'Em) 2019 Overrated, Underrated, & Avoid 'Em Prospects


Mind Character

Recommended Posts

Please list 5 or so Underrated Prospects; 5 or so Overrated prospects you've evaluated during the draft process. Then, please list 5 or so Prospects you want the Browns to stay away from in Rounds 2 and 3.

------------------------

Gentleman (and ladies??) ... It's that time of the year again.

The draftnik community is in full frenzy and we're all making predictions about other human beings abilities on something called the world wide web,

------------------------

Underrated:

1.) Nasir Adderley, CB/FS/SS-Convert Delaware -- Should be considered a top 12 talent. Forceful tackler; competitive fight and urgency is elite; the most versatile defender in the draft; could be a pro-bowler at CB, FS, or SS.

2.) Jerry Tillery, DT Notre Dame -- Should be considered a top 15 talent. Game was unleashed when transitioned from a NT to a 3-tech. Has the 2nd most advanced hand usage (Quinnen WIlliams is 1st), has consistently the best game-changing forceful punch, violent hands, and diverse arsenal of pass rush moves (bull, push-pull aka jerk technique, two hand power swipe, speed swipe, swim, arm over) in the draft.

3.) Chidi Okeke, OT/OG TSU -- The best pure raw tools developmental OL in the draft worthy of a 4th to 5th round selection just to mold into a longterm starter in 2 years.

4.) Marcus Green, WR ULM -- Explosive, game-breaking Slot-WR with toughness and hand strength to be a reliable target on critical downs. Will be a later round gem.

5.) Diontae Johnson, WR Toledo -- One of the most fluid and dynamic hidden athleticism WRs in the draft. Could be a special Slot-WR at the next level. Top 80 player that will likely go much later.

6.) Stanley Morgan Jr., WR Nebraska -- Unmatched competitive fire, unmatched blocking effort, can do it all as a possession and jump ball specialist receiver; runs precise routes with subtleties of a veteran WR. Will be a very good WR2/WR3 and special teams player.

Overrated:

1.) Justin Layne, CB Michigan St. -- He's a 4th round or later prospect imo and not close to being worth the 2nd or 3rd round pick as often stated.

There are a few prospects in this class over all others for which glowing impact starter quality evaluations of their play and 1st/2nd grades of them make absolutely no sense at all for me was. Justin Layne and Greedy Williams were two of those prospects for me. I forced myself to watch 5 other games to see if more games would add texture and nuanced understanding to the assessment of their skills in terms of its successful projection at the next level.

I don't get the love at all w/ Justin Layne as his testing athleticism doesn't translate to the football movement skill required for cornerback success b/c he's so consistently off balance, lacks the foot quickness/speed, lacks hip flexibility, and uncoordinated in press coverage transition movements from backpedal to plant drive foot to directional drive step. He looses his footing so many times or lags in his step response to the movement of the WR due to his knee and hip stiffness allowing WRs with horizontal quickness movement off the line to immediately beat him badly in unrecoverable ways. Struggling in press coverage takes away the value of his length. Transitioning to a pure zone CB is a difficult projection as he lacks awareness and vision.

I have so many CB rated above him such as .... 1.) Julian Love, 2.) Lonnie Johnson Jr., 3.) Amani Oruwariye, 4.) Byron Murphy, 5.) Deandre Baker, 6.) Trayvon Mullen, 7.) Rock Ya-Sin, 8.) Jamel Dean, 9.) Sean Bunting, 10.) Nik Needham, 11.) Joejuan Williams, 12.) Chris Westry and more

2.) Parris Campbell, WR Ohio State  -- If it's not a gadget play utilizing him like a HB or quick out or underneath route he can't produce as he lacks catch and route focus. Is a 3rd to early 4th round prospect. How much value does poor catch ability Tavon Austin have?? Depends. In the right offense, Campbell could be a game breaker on gadget plays. In others, it's going to be hard to manufacture the requisite touches for him as he's not a reliable pass catching target or slot WR that can consistently go get it.

3.) Greedy Williams, CB LSU -- He's a mid 3rd round to 4th round talent being talked about as if he's a sure-fire top 20 guy. Not urgent or quick in short area enough to impact WRs at the line or in intermediate routes. Lacks ball and route awareness. Won't tackle. Smooth but slow play speed.

4.) Montez Sweat, DE Miss. St.  -- He's not worth a 1st or high 2nd round pick depending on who's still on the boardA nice developmental prospect. Testing athleticism doesn't translate to dynamic movement on the field. Has no pass rush moves or pass rush plan except for a bull rush and occasional long arm. Senior bowl dominance in 1v1's via bull rush.          

5.) N'Keal Harry, WR Arizona St -- Is actually a 3rd or 4th round player due to limitations. Can't get off press or beat patient CBs at all. Not quick enough or loose enough athlete to win in the slot. Is a underneath run after catch specialist in a quick hitting passing game, but can't separate in a quick passing game. Best as a big slot that runs come backs or wins contested crossing routes due to size. Would be best bulking up and becoming a TE.

6.) Deionte Thompson, S Alabama -- He's a 4th round or later prospect imo being spoken about as a 2nd round guy. Film was unimpressive all over.

7.) Rashan Gary, DE Michigan -- Late 1st or top of 2nd type of player being talked about as a top 10 guy. Really nice prospect tools wise.

---------------------

Please Stay Away from in the 2nd and 3rd:

1,) Jaylon Ferguson, DE Louisiana Tech -- College production; NFL JAG.

2.) Germaine Pratt, LB N.C. State -- He won't ever be better than average and will always be upgradable every year. Limited impact player. Not worth using a 2nd or 3rd on that type of player just to fill a need when there will be longterm starters and quality starters/contributors available in the 2nd and 3rd. After Devin White and Devin Bush are off the board, it would be better to take a late round pick on a guy like Ty Summers, TCU than to spend early draft capital on a guy like Pratt or Mack Wilson.

3.) Justin Layne, CB Michigan St. -- See Above

4.) Isaiah Johnson, CB Houston -- Like Layne, has going forward athleticism not going/moving backward and then quick stop start multidirectional lateral dynamic movement athleticissm.

5.) Irv Smith Jr., TE Alabama -- I really like Irv as a prospect, but as TE his unique limitations add nothing to our TE unit beyond what Njoku and Harris provide. He's more of an out the backfield H-Back than an on the line or split out pass catching TE. Good blocker not better than Harris.

6.) Trysten Hill: Ultra talent that Could be a locker room problem or bad fit with team culture. Definitely pass on in the 2nd, but I go back and forth on if I'd risk a 3rd on him. Depends on whose on the board.

Edited by Mind Character
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think the only place we disagree is with Paris Campbell. Coincidentally, we’d be the type of team he would thrive on. He’d be a gadget / special teams ala Percy Harvin type. He wouldn’t have the pressure of being a #1 or even #2.

 

I’m LOVING Nasir Adderly and want to trade up for him. I think Juan Thornhill is underrated. I will go as far as to say he will be the best secondary player from this class.

Edited by candyman93
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, candyman93 said:

I think the only place we disagree is with Paris Campbell. Coincidentally, we’d be the type of team he would thrive on. He’d be a gadget / special teams ala Percy Harvin type. He wouldn’t have the pressure of being a #1 or even #2.

 

I’m LOVING Nasir Adderly and want to trade up for him. I think Juan Thornhill is underrated. I will go as far as to say he will be the best secondary player from this class.

That's CRAZY Interesting that you say that man b/c while i was typing the OP, I laughed to myself thinking, " if I don't like Parris Campbell so much why do I feel like he'd work well in our offense I don't kno." So, I think you're right on there. Don't know if I'd spend the 2nd on him though as I feel like a lot of quality player rated higher than him will be available. Will be interesting to see where he goes.

Adderely is the truth and I hope we trade up for him. I liked Thornhill's game a lot, but I just didn't think he was tough enough, a good enough forceful tackler, or cuts it loose enough to play SS or a box specialist move playmaker role in our scheme. I could be wrong for sure. He's more of a FS and nickel/boundary CB guy. Adderley is tough and urgent enough w/ a quick mental trigger to play SS or mix match zone safety or really any secondary role. I value Juan in the 3rd or late 2nd, but he'll likely be gone by then. He's a good player though.

Edited by Mind Character
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, candyman93 said:

This is how I’d use Parris. Throw in some screens that made a guy like Demarius Thomas a nightmare.

 

 

 

Indeed ... Good comp. with those Demaryius Thomas catch and run plays. Could be a dynamic force. Sign me up to watch that offense.

3 looks like that a game w/ 1-2 being misdirection/decoys... 2-3 fly jet sweeps a la the Rams ... maybe a 1-2 targets in a 4WR or 5WR set ... about 4-6 Targets/Touches a game probably about 4 touches a game w/ Jarvis, OBJ, Callaway, and Njoku still getting the lions share. The rest could go to Parris and Higgins w/ Parris' being on more explosive early down, stay on schedule plays and Higgins being big money downs where sure-handedness and instincts to get open beyond the sticks is important.

If he can improve his ability to catch and his durability, he'd definitely be a value add to our offense.

I still don't think that type of limited usage would be worth the 49th pick b/c we could probably get Mecole Hardman, WR Georgia or Marcus Green, WR ULM that could provide juice in that type of role albeit requiring us to spend less valuable draft capital. Parris is the bigger athlete, Marcus Green's the better player in that role imo, and I honestly don't know what I think about Hardman beyond he's a fast gadget player as I've only watched 2 games.

 

Edited by Mind Character
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...