2017 Predictions

[y2lamanaki]

On 8/31/2017 at 1:39 PM, y2lamanaki said:

^Wins bolded. Final record 4-12. I predict a win against the Seahawks because not only will we get to gameplan for two weeks for them, they'll be coming off what will likely be a tough Monday night game against the Falcons. 

Hoyer - Plays 14 games. Has a statline something like 3500/18 TDs/11 INTs

Hyde - Plays 13 games. Starts losing playing time to Williams/Breida. Finished with around 700 yards rushing. Maybe close to 1,000 total yards.

Williams/Breida - Combine for 500 rush yards, 700 total yards.

Juszczyk - The leading TE for the team. No idea what this looks like.

Goodwin - Becomes the team's leading receiver. Breakout season - 60 receptions, 1100 yards, 6 TDs.

Garcon - 900 yards receiving, 5 TDs 

Buckner - 10 sacks. Just like he wanted.

Thomas - 4 sacks. Not like we wanted. 

 

 

Run Defense - Improves to a top 10 unit, largely thanks to additions of Thomas/Mitchell (Thomas has a solid rookie year in this regard).

Foster's total tackles > Bowman's total tackles. Both play 16 games. 

Starting corners for the season are Robinson/Johnson/Williams. Starting corners to end the season are Ward/Witherspoon/Williams (injury/poor play respectively)

Lorenzo Jerome becomes the starting FS against the Seahawks after the bye week. Ward moves to CB (if he's not injured - big if).

Eric Reid - Our secondary MVP this season. Resigns in 2018 for 4 years/$31 million. Possibly named Team MVP.

A little under on Hoyer's yards, a bit under on INTs, and well under on TDs. Game starts? Impossible to predict. 

Even predicting Hyde to miss games, I'm way under on his total yards prediction. 

Williams isn't playing, but Breida is not far off the prediction. 

With only 66 yards, I'm sadly not far off on Juszczyk being the leading TE. 

Nowhere close on Goodwin.

Well under on Garcon.

Well under on Buckner, though I would be pretty close had his second sack not been taken away.

On the money on Solomon Thomas.


By traditional modeling, I'm wrong on the 49ers rush defense as they're ranked 15th. However, something should be said for having the second most attempts in the league against them and maintaining a 3.3 defensive YPC. 

Foster is not too far behind Bowman in team tackles at this point, so it's not impossible that he passes Bowman. Realistically, in that one game he was on pace for 15 tackles, which would have left him only 2 behind Bowman as of now if he had simply gotten injured later in the game. However, "both playing 16 games" was a shot in the dark that missed. 

Hard to say where the season ends up, but I predicted a Ward/Witherspoon/Williams CB trio at the end of the year, and I would say those would be some deserved changes. 

Might need to replace Jerome with Tartt with how well he's been playing at safety. 

I'm guessing Reid would still be the secondary MVP this season if he hadn't gotten injured. But the injury now means that Tartt has had a chance to sign and we will not need to sign Reid to that contract. However, if Tartt continues to look good, and if Ward gets moved to CB, maybe it's time to just keep that set-up. Because Ward has not played poorly at FS, but he's not been a ballhawking safety back there either, and he'd be an incredible improvement at CB. In fact - with Reid set to return soon and Tartt playing well, maybe that's a move the team looks at sooner rather than later. 

[Forge]

12 hours ago, y2lamanaki said:

A little under on Hoyer's yards, a bit under on INTs, and well under on TDs. Game starts? Impossible to predict. 

Even predicting Hyde to miss games, I'm way under on his total yards prediction. 

Williams isn't playing, but Breida is not far off the prediction. 

With only 66 yards, I'm sadly not far off on Juszczyk being the leading TE. 

Nowhere close on Goodwin.

Well under on Garcon.

Well under on Buckner, though I would be pretty close had his second sack not been taken away.

On the money on Solomon Thomas.


By traditional modeling, I'm wrong on the 49ers rush defense as they're ranked 15th. However, something should be said for having the second most attempts in the league against them and maintaining a 3.3 defensive YPC. 

Foster is not too far behind Bowman in team tackles at this point, so it's not impossible that he passes Bowman. Realistically, in that one game he was on pace for 15 tackles, which would have left him only 2 behind Bowman as of now if he had simply gotten injured later in the game. However, "both playing 16 games" was a shot in the dark that missed. 

Hard to say where the season ends up, but I predicted a Ward/Witherspoon/Williams CB trio at the end of the year, and I would say those would be some deserved changes. 

Might need to replace Jerome with Tartt with how well he's been playing at safety. 

I'm guessing Reid would still be the secondary MVP this season if he hadn't gotten injured. But the injury now means that Tartt has had a chance to sign and we will not need to sign Reid to that contract. However, if Tartt continues to look good, and if Ward gets moved to CB, maybe it's time to just keep that set-up. Because Ward has not played poorly at FS, but he's not been a ballhawking safety back there either, and he'd be an incredible improvement at CB. In fact - with Reid set to return soon and Tartt playing well, maybe that's a move the team looks at sooner rather than later. 

That's really why I like to use dvoa and efficiency. Obviously, not a perfect stat measure by any means, but at least they are trying to take certain things into account, and I do think give a better overall look at how good a defense / offense is.