(Name 'Em) 2019 Overrated, Underrated, & Avoid 'Em Prospects

[HoboRocket]

4 hours ago, bomont said:

I get that he brings a lot to the table overall. Just for me, no way am I using my first round pick on a WR with dropsies. 

Meh. I'd be willing to use a late first on him. I don't really see any difference between him and Mike Evans.

[Chwf3rd25]

Underrated

RB: Devin Singletary, Deter Williams, Travis Homer, Jalin Moore

WR: Deebo Samuel, Stanley Morgan Jr

TE: Kahale Warring, Alize Mack, Trevon Wesco

OT: Greg Little, Chuma Edoga

IOL: Erik McCoy

DL: Jerry Tillery, Cortez Broughton, Daniel Wise

Edge: Maxx Crosby, Porter Gustin

LB: Dru Tranquill, Jahlani Tavai, Sione Takitaki

CB: Jordan Brown

S: Darnell Savage, Sheldrick Redwine

Overrated

RB: Darrell Henderson

WR: Parris Campbell, Andy Isabella

TE: Noah Fant

OT: Jawaan Taylor, Kaleb McGary

IOL: Chris Lindstrom, Connor McGovern

Edge: D'Andre Walker, Oshane Ximines

DL: Christian Wilkins

LB: Bobby Okereke, Tre Lamar

CB: Rock Ya Sin, Justin Layne, Amani Oruwariye, Lonnie Johnson

S: Jonathan Abram, Chauncy Gardner Johnson

[Chwf3rd25]

2 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

Chase Winovich - For what you have to pay to get Winovich, you can get Gustin (who is bigger, stronger, and is a better overall athlete (outside 40)) for a lesser draft pick

Dalton Risner - I don't get the hype, he is definitely nasty and is a tough guy, but his feet are horrible and is strictly IOL IMO

Winovich - I dont think you can say that Winovich is overrated just because Gustin is underrated, rather Winovich is probably properly rated in the early 2nd and Gustin is underrated on Day 3.  Would love to hear more about why you think Winovich is overrated.  Incredibly disruptive on film, awesome hand usage and playing personality, and then tested like a plus NFL athlete.  The fact that you can get that in the 2nd round is a pretty good value.

Risner - Yes he clearly struggles to move his feet and thus if he stays at RT his ceiling is limited.  However, he had no issues handling the freakiest of the freaks in Montez Sweat and did a good job on Omenihu as well.  Plus, if it turns out that he can't play RT you can move him inside very easily and he has all-pro potential in that spot.  His anchor is fantastic and he moves people in the run game, plus his foot speed is plenty good enough for an IOL.

 

[incognito_man]

Jeffrey Simmons, Jerry Tillery and Dexter Lawrence are all underrated. These are all pretty easily top 12ish guys in a less stacked year IMO. Simmons moreso due to injury and losing the first year. Otherwise he'd be top 5 this year. Still underrated on a 4 year deal.

I also have Hakeem Butler as a top 5 guy in this class. I'm a fan of both Adderley and Savage as well. Both are probably right around top 20 guys for me.

 

I think Devin White is overrated. I don't want an ILB with questionable instincts in the top half of round 1. DK Metcalf is an athlete trying to play WR. Maybe take a shot in the 2nd or 3rd round, but not a 1st round guy. Starting to cool on Ed Oliver. I think Ed Oliver likes Ed Oliver too much. I also don't think Nick Bosa is a top 5 player. He looks more like a mid/late 1st rounder to me. Not an elite athlete like I'd want in the top 5 at EDGE. TJ Hockensen is Jason Witten. He'd be a good late 1st guy, but not a top 15 game-changer. Devin Bush will get overdrafted as well. I like him a lot more than White, but I don't want a petite ILB in the top half of round 1 either. Decent value after pick 20ish if the premiums start to thin out.

[bomont]

I don't think Tillery is underrated any more. He's flying up the charts.

[.Buzz]

 

Edited April 22, 2019 by .Buzz

[Mind Character]

1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

I have Layne getting picked late 2nd but could easily fall to the 3rd or 4th round.  Does not really matter where he is drafted as long as he gets in the right system that can use him.  For a tall corner he is great at press man coverage, has good ball skills and his reaction time to the football in the air is very good.  Did you watch him against Ohio State this year?  Hard to not be impressed with him after that game, he made a variety of solid plays in that game against good QB and a very deep group of WRs.

Sure he lacks elite speed but is more than a willing tackle for his skinny frame, still has room to grow and improve.  He is a solid corner prospect and has better ball skills than other long corner prospects in Xavier Crawford, Lonnie Johnson, Chris Westry and Davanta Davis.  Oruwariye has good ball skills as well being a 6-2 corner but I would say Layne has a little more upside than he does and is a little more quick to react in coverage with his hands.  

Is Layne getting a little more hype because of his size, sure he is and same could be said for Greedy Williams.  Greedy is another long tall corner and he has blazing speed and knows how to get the football.  Hard to not like corners who are ball hawks out there like Greedy and Greedy has done it for awhile now.  

 

I see you dislike Greedy as well, as a RS SOPH his upside is huge I think.  Is raw but so damn talented especially in terms of his ball skills early on and should only get better in time.  

You're absolutely right: Justin Layne was impressive through a variety of plays against OSU.

Here's the thing:     I see Justin Layne as a valuable player; a player with a particular value and skill set that within the context of the rest of the CB and non-CB talent pool in the draft is  not worth a 1st or 2nd round pick based on my assessment of his play traits and skills via an 8 game sample size including The Ohio State game. Within particular scheme considerations, he makes some sense as a 3rd round selection, but generally is a player I value late 3rd to early/mid 4th.

Ultimately, the way I value the 1st round pick is reserved for immediate quality starters; the value for the 2nd round pick (especially the top half or so of picks) is for a player with immediate starter ability that is a day 1 contributor and quality starter by year 2 on the team at the latest; the value of the 3rd round pick (especially the top half of the 3rd or so)   being day 1 quality contributor with long-term quality starter upside by year 3; and I value and reserve 4th round picks for developmental upside players with starter traits but limitations in their game that may prevent them from being a quality starter and instead make them replacement-level contributors.

I see Layne as somewhere between a 3rd and 4th round player in some schemes but a 4th round player in others. He's a developmental upside player with starter traits but limitations (as I discussed in my OP it has nothing to do with how raw he is at the position but instead based on his core hip flexibility; slow feet; stiff knees; poor balance; and inability to mirror match and run in phase on routes beyond 7 yards or intermediate routes not in the red zone, etc).

There's still a lot to like about his game... he's a willing tackler; he seems to improve his play in the redzone; he can lock down routes 5-7 yards and in; long arms to shed blockers in run support; good build up long speed to chase down plays away from him, etc. It's just even when I think about projecting his evolution at the next level; he's not a quality starter or 2nd (or really even early 3rd) round pick in my mind. But I know a lot of people disagree with my perspective on him and really like him a lot.

There's value to Greedy Williams as well, but I don't see Greedy as a ball-hawk as you stated. He played injured; has a lot of upside and very talented, but for the reasons I stated in my OP... I don't see him as anything close to a top 20 prospect or early to mid 2nd round pick relative to the other prospects in the talent pool.

When it's all said and done, both Justin Layne and Greedy Williams are very talented and quality guys off the field, but I just happen t think they are both overrated for a variety of differing reasons. Interesting question is if I had to choose between Greedy or Justin who would I select?? It's tough, but I think it might be one of those even though I like the toughness, good tackling player Justin Layne more than Greedy, I'd have to go with Greedy based on the movement skills being worth the gamble on a developmental player and their upside more.

[Mind Character]

5 hours ago, MSURacerDT55 said:

 

Underrated

Dexter Lawrence - If this guy comes into camp at a solid 325, he is going to be an absolute force inside, people who don't know football look for flash when the game is won on routine plays, he flashes but most importantly, he does the dirty work that makes a successful defense go. I can easily see him develop into an Akiem Hicks type of player.

What's Dexter Lawrence's best positional fit?? 34, 5-tech DE? 34, 0-tech 2-gap NT? Or a 43 NT?

I go back and forth on where I think he'd be best with 5-tech being where I might start him off at even though it would be hard not to put the big fella in the middle..

I agree with you on Brian Burns being a 34OLB exclusive guy that can win with elite burst around the corner.

[Ozzy]

4 minutes ago, Mind Character said:

You're absolutely right: Justin Layne was impressive through a variety of plays against OSU.

Here's the thing:     I see Justin Layne as a valuable player; a player with a particular value and skill set that within the context of the rest of the CB and non-CB talent pool in the draft is  not worth a 1st or 2nd round pick based on my assessment of his play traits and skills via an 8 game sample size including The Ohio State game. Within particular scheme considerations, he makes some sense as a 3rd round selection, but generally is a player I value late 3rd to early/mid 4th.

Ultimately, the way I value the 1st round pick is reserved for immediate quality starters; the value for the 2nd round pick (especially the top half or so of picks) is for a player with immediate starter ability that is a day 1 contributor and quality starter by year 2 on the team at the latest; the value of the 3rd round pick (especially the top half of the 3rd or so)   being day 1 quality contributor with long-term quality starter upside by year 3; and I value and reserve 4th round picks for developmental upside players with starter traits but limitations in their game that may prevent them from being a quality starter and instead make them replacement-level contributors.

I see Layne as somewhere between a 3rd and 4th round player in some schemes but a 4th round player in others. He's a developmental upside player with starter traits but limitations (as I discussed in my OP it has nothing to do with how raw he is at the position but instead based on his core hip flexibility; slow feet; stiff knees; poor balance; and inability to mirror match and run in phase on routes beyond 7 yards or intermediate routes not in the red zone, etc).

There's still a lot to like about his game... he's a willing tackler; he seems to improve his play in the redzone; he can lock down routes 5-7 yards and in; long arms to shed blockers in run support; good build up long speed to chase down plays away from him, etc. It's just even when I think about projecting his evolution at the next level; he's not a quality starter or 2nd (or really even early 3rd) round pick in my mind. But I know a lot of people disagree with my perspective on him and really like him a lot.

There's value to Greedy Williams as well, but I don't see Greedy as a ball-hawk as you stated. He played injured; has a lot of upside and very talented, but for the reasons I stated in my OP... I don't see him as anything close to a top 20 prospect or early to mid 2nd round pick relative to the other prospects in the talent pool.

When it's all said and done, both Justin Layne and Greedy Williams are very talented and quality guys off the field, but I just happen t think they are both overrated for a variety of differing reasons. Interesting question is if I had to choose between Greedy or Justin who would I select?? It's tough, but I think it might be one of those even though I like the toughness, good tackling player Justin Layne more than Greedy, I'd have to go with Greedy based on the movement skills being worth the gamble on a developmental player and their upside more.

It is not even a question who to take between Justin Layne and Greedy Williams. It is Greedy all day, one because of the proven speed he has and two he has played at a higher level as a young player than Layne did.  Layne was a WR for a very short early part of his Michigan State career and has taken longer to develop.  

Greedy has 19 pass break ups and 8 INTs in 24 games.  That is very good production especially considering they rarely threw his way this past season.  Kid is an elite level corner and to me is easily the best corner in this up coming draft and will get selected ahead of any corner this year.  Sure Layne is probably a 3rd or 4th round pick, Greedy is a 1st rounder all the way no question about it.  He is so confident and smooth in coverage, sure tackling needs to improve but corners with his height and ball skills do not come around all that often.

[BleedTheClock]

Garrett Bradbury is underrated. He’s the best C prospect since 2009 in my opinion.  I know he’s the consensus #1 C in the class, but he doesn’t get enough credit. It’d be a massive steal if he makes it out of the teens. 

Edited April 23, 2019 by BleedTheClock

[Hunter2_1]

19 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

Underrated:

 

FB George Aston
(My 3rd highest rated player in the draft, as I don't factor in positional importance. There is nothing more you could want from the FB position. He catches, he runs, and he is an elite lead blocker. Has shown some H-TE versatility, but height probably keeps him in the backfield 99% of the time.)

 

You just crush on him, BTC, admit it 

Must admit, that neck...

[Hunter2_1]

@Mind Character

Re: Mcgary. Indeed. I have to note that, as ever, underrated does not necessarily mean bad, or even not-excellent. I think Winovich, for example, will be a good player (good - not great) but not worthy of a late 1 or early 2. I'm sure we're all on-board with the term, but just noting it for the record.

 

I agree with your TJ Hock stance. He's rightly graded as a great TE prospect and the most rounded.

[BleedTheClock]

2 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

You just crush on him, BTC, admit it 

Must admit, that neck...

Oh no doubt. You can even check the Browns forum—I admitted yesterday that I have had gender reassignment surgery so that one day I can trick Aston into a spicy relationship.   Either Aston or Jason Mamoa would work. I’d probs let him smash too tbh. His beard is/was immaculate. 

Edited April 23, 2019 by BleedTheClock

[MSURacerDT55]

15 hours ago, Mind Character said:

What's Dexter Lawrence's best positional fit?? 34, 5-tech DE? 34, 0-tech 2-gap NT? Or a 43 NT?

I go back and forth on where I think he'd be best with 5-tech being where I might start him off at even though it would be hard not to put the big fella in the middle..

I agree with you on Brian Burns being a 34OLB exclusive guy that can win with elite burst around the corner.

IMO, he has multiple values, I can see value with him being a space-eating, edge setting 5 tech (Haloti Ngata,Akiem Hicks), I can definitely see him as a prototypical 0 controlling the center and ruining his life (Kris Jenkins,Shaun Rogers), and he would be a major problem in anything that has him in a 1 gap scheme (Snacks Harrison, Linval Joseph).The beauty of situation is that with teams playing in multiple fronts, he could have snaps at all of those spots at some point.

As far as Burns, its not that I don't like him but there's more to playing defense than just rushing the passer, I'm interested to see if he has the same excitement to be a stud against the run as he is rushing the passer.

Edited April 23, 2019 by MSURacerDT55

[Hunter2_1]

59 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

Oh no doubt. You can even check the Browns forum—I admitted yesterday that I have had gender reassignment surgery so that one day I can trick Aston into a spicy relationship.   Either Aston or Jason Mamoa would work. I’d probs let him smash too tbh. His beard is/was immaculate. 

I saw, haha. That's where I got it from (lurker)

I'm currently doing the same for Kehale Warring, to be honest