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Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics

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Bear With Me: Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics (With Johnathan Wood!)

In this episode, Robert S. brings in Da Bears Blog’s Johnathan Wood to talk about numerical trends of the 2018 Chicago Bears. What drives Nagy’s offense? What are Trubisky’s statistical strengths and weaknesses? What physical traits are we looking for in a drafted RB? All this and more on this episode of Bear With Me!

By Robert Schmitz@robertkschmitz Apr 11, 2019, 8:00am CDT
 
usa_today_11920803.0.jpg Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Hey Bears Fans! Instead of talking about kicking tryouts or Aaron Lynch’s re-signing, I brought in Da Bears Blog’s resident statistician Johnathan Wood to talk about everything statistical we could think of relating to the 2018 Chicago Bears. Throughout this episode we talk about...

  • What statistically drives Nagy’s offense?
  • What did Trubisky statistically do well? What did he do poorly?
  • How did Daniels, Whitehair, and Long’s presences affect the offense?
  • What scouting combine measurements make up most Andy Reid/Matt Nagy feature backs? Which RBs in this draft fit that profile?
  • Why are combine measurements important, anyways?
  • What positions (outside of RB) should we look at with pick #87?
  • Which physical traits make up Nagy “U” TEs?
  • And much, much more!

Give it a listen and let me know what you think!

Listen to Podcast: https://www.windycitygridiron.com/2019/4/11/18305633/bear-with-me-podcast-lies-damn-lies-and-statistics-with-johnathan-wood-chicago-bears

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Posted (edited)

I've posted several threads with player profiles and statistical analyses by DaBears Blog's Jonathan Woods and some have enjoyed those threads.

Here WCG's Robert Schmitz conduct a nearly one hour Podcast with Jonathan in which they discuss much of Woods statistical analysis work regarding current and former Bears players and teams.  The introductory article displays some of the bullet points covered.

Maybe this is a little dry for some but for others like myself who've spent much of their professional lives using statistical analysis productively in their world this should be interesting and enlightening.  It's a long listen but IMHO well worth it.....enjoy.

Edited by soulman

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You do this on Easter? Thanks I'm going to get a lot of dirty looks when we ignoring the family for this. LOL

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One more note.  Around the 15 minute mark or shortly thereafter they talk about how key the re-signing of Massie and restructure of Long's contract were as far as the Bears offensive success.  Listen to Woods talk about the huge differences in run and passing game stats in games when both Long and Daniels finally played OG together.  It's a massive difference.

I bring this up because it will impact two things.

1) Does it make sense to flip Daniels and Whitehair from OG and OC?

2) Provided Long can remain healthy we want him around through 2020 if not longer.

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

You do this on Easter? Thanks I'm going to get a lot of dirty looks when we ignoring the family for this. LOL

LOL  I'm long since single and my kids are all grown so there's no one here to give me dirty looks but my reflection in a mirror.  Not even a trusty old hound dog sleeping at my feet. 

Holidays are now just another day like any other to me.

I married young, divorced fairly young, populated the planet with four beautiful daughters and have earned a right to my alone-ness including unlimited time for playing music, posting in a forum, and grandpa naps whenever I feel like one. indifferent0008.gif  

I also do a lot of my own reading and analytical work early in the morning when my thinking is clearest.  Life is good most days. :D

Edited by soulman

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Ok I was wrong. We all ate breakfast after the kids opened their stuff, then they went to the back yard and wife went to read. I got to sit on the back porch with a coffee and listen to the whole thing. Not only did I receive zero dirty looks, they completely forgot I was alive so far.

 

Awesome morning, good share @soulman

 

Happy Easter guys

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Breakdown for those of us about to be spending the next two days doing family, extended family, and then significant other extended family things? 

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29 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Ok I was wrong. We all ate breakfast after the kids opened their stuff, then they went to the back yard and wife went to read. I got to sit on the back porch with a coffee and listen to the whole thing. Not only did I receive zero dirty looks, they completely forgot I was alive so far.

 

Awesome morning, good share @soulman

 

Happy Easter guys

It was a good Podcast wasn't it?  They covered lots of ground but from a more 3 dimensional perspective than most sportswriters will ever do.

Malagabear and I were talking about that early this AM.  He's 8 hours ahead of me so we often talk late at night or early in the AM.

I just like having some quantitative info and observations to match up to visual and intuitive stuff.  It's either a confirmation or a denial of "am I really seeing what I'm seeing".

It also helps with trend analysis like Woods confirmation that Trubisky improved at a rapid pace as the season progressed.  Nagy as said so.  We won some tough games and made the playoffs but it's the statistical analysis that confirms it just as it confirmed that Howard's lack of efficiency at RB more than anything else was hurting us. 

He simply didn't fit what Nagy wants to do which should also tell us that draft prospects who are most similar to Howard in their skill set are not guys we're likely to draft or sign as UDFAs.

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8 minutes ago, Epyon said:

Breakdown for those of us about to be spending the next two days doing family, extended family, and then significant other extended family things? 

I've done a little of that in my posts so far but later today when I can go over the Podcast again I'll summarize some points and the times during the Podcast those conversations take place so posters can skip around to the parts they want to focus on.

While there's no Easter Egg Hunt going on here or ham dinner to be prepared I still have some things I have to do today including the obligatory telephone calls and emails to my family far and near.  I may be alone now but I'm far from being a complete hermit.  LOL

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8 hours ago, soulman said:

It was a good Podcast wasn't it?  They covered lots of ground but from a more 3 dimensional perspective than most sportswriters will ever do.

Malagabear and I were talking about that early this AM.  He's 8 hours ahead of me so we often talk late at night or early in the AM.

I just like having some quantitative info and observations to match up to visual and intuitive stuff.  It's either a confirmation or a denial of "am I really seeing what I'm seeing".

It also helps with trend analysis like Woods confirmation that Trubisky improved at a rapid pace as the season progressed.  Nagy as said so.  We won some tough games and made the playoffs but it's the statistical analysis that confirms it just as it confirmed that Howard's lack of efficiency at RB more than anything else was hurting us. 

He simply didn't fit what Nagy wants to do which should also tell us that draft prospects who are most similar to Howard in their skill set are not guys we're likely to draft or sign as UDFAs.

Yeah it was. Gave some good perspective and I love having stays confirm or deny what I am seeing. 

 

He made some good points and confirmed a lot of what was said here. The dropped once either Long or Daniels was out was pretty damn dramatic, so my mock probably will have Wisniewski (yes I googled the spelling.  Lol) as a higher priority FA signing. 

I'm still for having one ox for short yards. Whether Nall, Snell, or someone else I still want to know we can get 2 yards when it's needed, even if the defense k owe what is going to happen. New NFL or not, I want the Bears to impose their will on other teams. Idc if it's through the air or on the ground. 

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42 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Yeah it was. Gave some good perspective and I love having stays confirm or deny what I am seeing. 

 

He made some good points and confirmed a lot of what was said here. The dropped once either Long or Daniels was out was pretty damn dramatic, so my mock probably will have Wisniewski (yes I googled the spelling.  Lol) as a higher priority FA signing. 

I'm still for having one ox for short yards. Whether Nall, Snell, or someone else I still want to know we can get 2 yards when it's needed, even if the defense k owe what is going to happen. New NFL or not, I want the Bears to impose their will on other teams. Idc if it's through the air or on the ground. 

If Pace takes Singletary he may be a baby ox.  That kid is really good at finding even tiny creases for positive yardage.  He's quick and has great vision and if a tackler moves to close a gap he can use that 90 degree juke of his to hit he gap the guy just left.  He's damn hard to stop because he is so short and compact even when a tackler can square up on him and he makes that tough to do.  He has a bit of a Barry Sander type to him.

The Bears just brought in a local kid who went to UNC (Nothern CO), Tank Terrell.  He's a 6'2" 260lb OLB/DE whose also been worked out as a RB/HBack. High motor type with decent athleticism and versatility.  Probably a late round or UDFA but definitely another "tool in the toolbox" type.

https://dawindycity.com/2019/04/21/chicago-bears-nfl-draft-tank-terrell/

 

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1 hour ago, soulman said:

If Pace takes Singletary he may be a baby ox.  That kid is really good at finding even tiny creases for positive yardage.  He's quick and has great vision and if a tackler moves to close a gap he can use that 90 degree juke of his to hit he gap the guy just left.  He's damn hard to stop because he is so short and compact even when a tackler can square up on him and he makes that tough to do.  He has a bit of a Barry Sander type to him.

The Bears just brought in a local kid who went to UNC (Nothern CO), Tank Terrell.  He's a 6'2" 260lb OLB/DE whose also been worked out as a RB/HBack. High motor type with decent athleticism and versatility.  Probably a late round or UDFA but definitely another "tool in the toolbox" type.

https://dawindycity.com/2019/04/21/chicago-bears-nfl-draft-tank-terrell/

 

Awesome, so we found Henry Melton's heir. DE to HB instead of HB to 3T.  So weird, cool but weird. lol

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4 hours ago, Sugashane said:

Awesome, so we found Henry Melton's heir. DE to HB instead of HB to 3T.  So weird, cool but weird. lol

LOL  Well I don't think he'd be drafted for his skills as RB but if he can be used as one at times, or as a FB/HBack, it only adds to his utility as guy who'd be a back end of the roster or PS guy initially.  I don't see him as an impact pass rusher day one.

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15 hours ago, soulman said:

I've done a little of that in my posts so far but later today when I can go over the Podcast again I'll summarize some points and the times during the Podcast those conversations take place so posters can skip around to the parts they want to focus on.

While there's no Easter Egg Hunt going on here or ham dinner to be prepared I still have some things I have to do today including the obligatory telephone calls and emails to my family far and near.  I may be alone now but I'm far from being a complete hermit.  LOL

Quoting myself here.  Got too occupied to get around to parsing the Podcast yet.  Will do my best to get it done today.

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