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DiehardBronxFan

I’ll be happy with the draft if...

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That said I don’t want a QB at 10 I’d rather take one of the previous mentioned guys but that’s more of an I’m not enamored with any of these QB prospects 

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10 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Big Ben was 11th overall

And outside of Brady (.00001% chance his run is ever replicated) only Wilson (4th), Drew Brees (1st pick of the 2nd), Nick Foles (2nd) and brad Johnson have won a Super Bowl as an outside of the 1st round of picks.  

So, thats a different arguement. Total 1st rd versus top 10 pick.

So, a common denominator among those you listed is all but Brees were on great defensive teams. I learned decades ago that a QB gets more credit than he deserves in a win. The SB is the ultimate proof. Just ask Eli or PM. Defense is what won 3 of their 4 rings.

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13 hours ago, BroncoBruin said:

I like Hockenson, but I love Fant. I have no clue what he brings to the table as a blocker but I think he is going to be impossible to defend in the passing game. How valuable is having our own version of Kelce? 

He is actually a very underrated blocker. People like to assume because of his athleticism and the dominance of a blocker Hockenson is that he can’t block. 

https://twitter.com/NFLDraftVideos/status/1108530964358144000?s=20

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1 hour ago, AKRNA said:

To answer the first, I don't think so, not at all. 

As far as the second, that and similar takes get posted a lot. I just don't believe that. The SB winners sure don't make that point. Only the Manning brothers, both #1 picks are the only top 10 draft pick QB's to win a SB in this century. Chances of winning a ring are far better with a great defense and journeyman QB.

That's only true if you lump Tom Brady and his 6 rings into the "jouneyman QB" camp.  And, despite the outlier of him getting drafted in the 6 round, there is no way you can call Brady a "journeyman" QB.  

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18 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

That's only true if you lump Tom Brady and his 6 rings into the "jouneyman QB" camp.  And, despite the outlier of him getting drafted in the 6 round, there is no way you can call Brady a "journeyman" QB.  

That's true. It's also true that Brady never won a SB with a defensive team ranked less than 8th. I'm a real fan of Tom's, great QB, but when he won his first three rings he was still developing and rode the backs of 1st, 2nd and 6th ranked defenses to get to the SB. 

The smartest thing Brady ever did was to stick with BB in NE for a substantial home town discount rather than chase the money. 

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52 minutes ago, AKRNA said:

That's true. It's also true that Brady never won a SB with a defensive team ranked less than 8th. I'm a real fan of Tom's, great QB, but when he won his first three rings he was still developing and rode the backs of 1st, 2nd and 6th ranked defenses to get to the SB. 

The smartest thing Brady ever did was to stick with BB in NE for a substantial home town discount rather than chase the money. 

I'm all for a Top-Tier Defense.  You can use every pick you want for 10 years on Defense for all I care, except for 1 single first-round pick to get your Franchise QB - although I expect you'll want to spend at least a few of them on the OL;).  And again, I'm not saying that Haskins or Lock are "That Guy".  But you have to do it sooner or later, and if you think either of them ARE "That Guy",  you better pull the trigger when you have the chance.  Haskins, especially - I don't know what more anybody could possibly want out of him except 1 more year of experience to "prove it".  Great kid, great character, smart, accurate, student of the game, good (if not great) arm talent, poise, reads defenses well.  Other than 1 more year of experience, just not sure what you'd expect to have a chance to get next year, or the year after, that's any better.

But again, I'll be perfectly happy if they don't think he is their guy and take White, or Oliver, or Hochenson - or trade back and get more picks.  But I will tell you, I can't take many more years of Manning in decline/Simeon/Keenum/Osweiller/Lynch QB Play.  If Flacco/the Scangarello offense isn't a significant upgrade,  the Broncos are going to start seeing a heck of lot more empty seats.  

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17 hours ago, BullsandBroncos said:

I'd like to see us grab a NT in the first 2 rounds since we don't have one on the roster.

I really like Kahlen Saunders for the role. should be available early Rd 3. 

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everyone will put all of the emphasis on the 1st round pick, but I'll be happy if we continue from last year with good players in the middle rounds instead of pure projects. Guys I'd like us to take if available in rounds 2-5 include Dalton Risner (OG KSU) , Garrett Bradbury (OC NCSt), Khalen Saunders (DT W. Ill), Oshane Ximines (Edge Old D), Andy Isabella (WR Mass), Tytus Howard (OT Ala St), Foster Moreau (TE LSU), Cortez Broughton (DT Cinci), Ben Burr-Kirven (ILB Wash), and Hjalte Froholdt (Swing OL, Ark)

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25 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

everyone will put all of the emphasis on the 1st round pick, but I'll be happy if we continue from last year with good players in the middle rounds instead of pure projects. Guys I'd like us to take if available in rounds 2-5 include Dalton Risner (OG KSU) , Garrett Bradbury (OC NCSt), Khalen Saunders (DT W. Ill), Oshane Ximines (Edge Old D), Andy Isabella (WR Mass), Tytus Howard (OT Ala St), Foster Moreau (TE LSU), Cortez Broughton (DT Cinci), Ben Burr-Kirven (ILB Wash), and Hjalte Froholdt (Swing OL, Ark)

I was just about to comment on exactly this.

Unless your talking QB, teams are rarely successful based primarily on their 1st round hit rate. Sure, it helps, but give me five 7/10 players rather than one 10/10 player all day, every day (excluding QB).

I miss the days of me knowing which prospects I liked, but I don't so I won't have much of a reaction either way. I just don't want us to give up any future picks for a change.

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41 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

everyone will put all of the emphasis on the 1st round pick, but I'll be happy if we continue from last year with good players in the middle rounds instead of pure projects. Guys I'd like us to take if available in rounds 2-5 include Dalton Risner (OG KSU) , Garrett Bradbury (OC NCSt), Khalen Saunders (DT W. Ill), Oshane Ximines (Edge Old D), Andy Isabella (WR Mass), Tytus Howard (OT Ala St), Foster Moreau (TE LSU), Cortez Broughton (DT Cinci), Ben Burr-Kirven (ILB Wash), and Hjalte Froholdt (Swing OL, Ark)

BBK is my guy

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Posted (edited)

Been away for a while, but it's Draft week, so if there's one time to check back in, it's now lol....

In order of priority:

1.  Passing on any QB but Haskins at 1.10 - as much as I still worry about only 1 year of tape to base a 1st round selection off of, at least Haskins shows all the skills you want to see in a pocket passer.    Kyler Murray won't be there at 1.10, and we know he's not Elway's "type", given the whole short-QB-can't-get-under-center statement he made (not trying to restart any debates here on size, just Elway has made it clear that's not a direction he's going to go). 

Drew Lock's been discussed to death - but in the end, what bothers me most is 3-fold - his weaknesses are ones that are the hardest to fix (other than lack of actual talent), his record against good college D's really sucks (and as much as ppl then say he had a bad supporting cast, the track record of QB's who consistently struggle against good D's is terrifying - as RW's Thor Nystrom points out in a really outstanding in-depth breakdown of the QB draft class, elite draft QB talents don't crater like he does against good D's (Link - https://www.rotoworld.com/article/evaluations/nfl-draft-qb-deep) and QB's who struggle like he did don't succeed in the NFL.  Lastly, Lock's growth curve has been really flat after a promising start.    When you combine it with Elway's track record on QB evaluation, I'd love to give Scangarelli the benefit of the doubt in his developmental ability (as he made a JAG look serviceable last year when Jimmy G went down), but Lock just doesn't scream elite talent waiting for the right coach - the floor being Blaine Gabbert V2...which is downright scary for any 1st round pick, let alone 1.10.   

Before ppl bring up Mahomes, the tool comp isn't close (Mahomes is that special), and frankly, as Norstrom points out, the college performance comp (both were on bad teams vs. good D's) isn't even close.   Elway made this crucial mistake in 2017 of seeing Tyreek Hill and wanting desperately to find it in a 2017 draft class that didn't have a Hill - this seems like a similar mistake, only 100x more risky with 1.10 as the pick capital in question.

2.  For the non-QB's, if we stayed at 1.10 (mostly because teams won't be willing to trade back, I'm guessing Elway would dearly love to move back if he's not going QB), if we went with Devin White (who would be a mild upset to be there at 1.10), or an Ed Oliver (bigger upset) or even Hockenson (and usually I'm not on TE's at all, given the 1-2 year incubation time needed, but his outstanding blocking ability makes him playable year 1), that would be a job well done IMO.    I love the fact that they interviewed both Andre Dillard and Jonah Williams at the Combine, but the fact they didn't bring them in for private workouts suggests that's more their plan B/C (or maybe they don't see either being there, Dillard's the hot riser as the guy seen as a plug and play LT, I wouldn't be surprised to see him go before 1.10).  If Dillard were there, could not argue the thinking, either. 

3.  If we traded back, then it certainly makes the case to go for the OL/TE talent that would be further back - I doubt Hockenson would be there, but then Noah Fant becomes intriguing around the late teens / 20's.    I certainly couldn't fault going OL either with the Bradbury/Ford tier of interior OL, as the OL talent really hits that tier around that range.

4.  For Day 2, if we don't go OL Rd1, then we should definitely consider it here.   Guys like Dalton Risner would be nice picks at 2.11, as they'd likely be still on the board, given the projection inside, but have the versatility to play either G or RT, and I think this would be a knockout pick.  I don't think Bradbury will fall this far, as interior OL is being recognized more and more as a priority item (MIN's struggles in the interior OL and IND's resurgence with boosting their interior OL really brings this point home), but Risner makes my top 30 on pure talent, but seems to be projected in the 45-50 range on most boards.  Then again,  if a CB falls like Baker (whose 40 time has ppl questioning his ability as a shutdown corner, which I think presents an opportunity if he falls far enough), though, hard not to go BPA as I think there's going to likely be value opps at 2.11, given how early QB's are going.  Whichever DB we pick, it will be interesting to see whether we go for the high-ceiling potential-shutdown skill set, vs. the all-round must-tackle-well CB that Fangio really does prefer in his D philosophy

I think overall BPA will provide a need position at 2.11, so there's no real BPA vs. need issue that should arise - unless someone falls hard at a position of strength (thinking Ole Miss DL Jeffery Simmons with his ACL, could still end up in Rd 1...or could fall because his 1st year is likely partial redshirt and no full impact until Year 2).    Or maybe a guy like N'Keal Harry falls (who would be a fantastic value at 2.11 if he falls that far).   Given we aren't really legit contenders, no matter the win-now statements made, just get the best talent for 2.11.

5.  By the time we get to Rd3, we're starting to blur the lines between need and BPA - the gaps in overall talent are usually small enough to address need as a clear tie-breaker, and by Day 3, it's a total crapshoot.   So need picks are hard to criticize, given there's no real BPA gap.  By now, the very deep trench and WR class really offers a chance to find a value guy.  And we do need to think about WR in the post-Manny Sanders era - his absence showed why Sutton is a strong piece, but more as a WR2 guy, unless his route tree really expands (which wasn't his forte).   Hamilton will be fine as a slot guy, but it would be ideal to find a future X/Z type WR to combine with Sutton/Hamilton long-term.   And that's where this WR class offers many opps.   

6.  If Elway passes on QB at 1.10, it's pretty easy to see with Kevin Hogan as our only backup QB, that he's going to take a QB somewhere around Rd3-onwards (doesnt' tie him down to go early in 2020/21 for QB as needed, but gets his future backup, and allows him to take that flier until we finally hit).    I don't see Grier or Jones falling far past the top 50, so I think we'd be looking at early Day 3 picks like Brett Rypien, or Clayton Thorson (I mention those 2 because both had visits with Elway during the draft evaluation period, unlike Eason Stick).  To be clear, I don't think this is a likely shot to find our QBOTF - but both actually would be OK at Day 3 if we're thinking we need a long-term backup type.   While I've expressed over & over my lack of enthusiasm for the top of the 2019 QB draft class, the developmental/backup tier is actually very deep (doesn't solve our main problem in all likelihood, but these guys really do matter, as Nick Foles showed).  The mega late Rd7/UDFA type QB pick Elway has done many times to watch for - Wagner's TJ Linta, given the connection with Scangarelli.  

7.  If we don't go Hockenson 1.10 (or trade back and get a Rd1-2 TE later), then for Day 3, TE's Jace Sternberger from TAMU (the one move TE I think could be really good by year 2 realizing his limitations) & Dawson Knox from Ole Miss would be fantastic picks IMO.   Caleb Wilson from UCLA is also intriguing, but his combine has his stock up where I'm not sure I want to go that high, given I prefer Sternberger more (but Wilson's ceiling and skillset fits the criteria I want to see).  We have to get a future TE - as much as I loved the pick of Jake Butt Rd5 in 2017, 2 ACL's in a limited explosiveness skill set is a huge red flag, so we can't rely on that panning out, and ideally Jeff Huermann is a 2nd TE, not the guy.    If we don't go early for the top 3, going Day 3 early with either would be great, and I'd argue it's absolutely a priority once we're in Rd4 to think TE (Rd 3+ is more the sweet spot since you are burning potentially 2 full years with TE's, sometimes even 3 - the game speed adjustment / positional learning curve is so damn steep)..

Ultimately, until we get better cheap talent (2018 was a great start, but we're still really top-heavy overall), we aren't legit contenders.  And the cheap rookie-contract QB is the holy grail to facilitate contention - but as 2020 is a best-case (and 2021 is more realistic) for legit contention, if Haskins isn't there at 1.10, then let's go BPA Rd1-2, and then find skilled guys like last year, and push the QBOTF high-investment Q to 2020/21 (I know it's brutal to wait another year, but forcing the pick in this class Rd1 is just plain scary).   For sure, we need to hit QB/WR/TE at some point - along with CB/ILB/OL - just shows how much of a roster build we still have ahead of us.   But 2018's draft at least gives hope the evaluations of the players themselves are more skill-based, so here's hoping that trend continues.

 

 

Edited by Broncofan

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1 hour ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

everyone will put all of the emphasis on the 1st round pick, but I'll be happy if we continue from last year with good players in the middle rounds instead of pure projects. Guys I'd like us to take if available in rounds 2-5 include Dalton Risner (OG KSU) , Garrett Bradbury (OC NCSt), Khalen Saunders (DT W. Ill), Oshane Ximines (Edge Old D), Andy Isabella (WR Mass), Tytus Howard (OT Ala St), Foster Moreau (TE LSU), Cortez Broughton (DT Cinci), Ben Burr-Kirven (ILB Wash), and Hjalte Froholdt (Swing OL, Ark)

The hype on Bradbury is nuts, it would seem a mild upset if he didn't go Rd 1 TBH.   Love Risner & Isabella, Risner would be a fantastic 2.11 pick IMO.   

Isabella's draft spot is intriguing, because more and more teams realize going Rd1 WR is more fraught with lower-return rates.    I know there will be 3-4, but the WR class is so deep with really great talent this year,  that where Isabella fits really intrigues me.   I think he and Anthony Miller have very similar skill sets (Miller didn't attend the combine last year, so we can't tell how sudden he is compared to Isabella, but the tape shows it).   In the 2018 draft, I'd say Rd 2 is his spot for sure.  But we could easily see more sought after prototype speed (Campbell) or size / profile guys (Harry, etc.) go outside Rd1.    I'd be surprised to see Isabella go ahead of that tier, even though I love that short area quickness combined with his tape (albeit vs. lesser competition).

Outside of those 3, though, I'd be surprised to see anyone else make it to Day 2 except Saunders & Howard (EDGE class being deep as well).  Love the idea of getting T, even with James in the fold, you can't count on 2 T's staying healthy, and eventually James will either age, get hurt, or get too pricey for his level of play - and it offers insurance in case Bolles really is better off as a RT.  Love those developmental guys who have the footwork/quickness, because they offer the versatility to play either side - which is a rare commodity these days.   He reminds me stock-wise of Brandon Parker, another developmental T with a LT starter skill set, so Rd3-4 seems like the fit. 

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Posted (edited)

Was watching TV and Adam Schefter said there is a good chance Denver tries to trade back into the 1st for a QB after grabbing Devin Bush, The Iowa TE, or Ed Oliver. I think Oliver and Bush will be gone by #10 so I'm expecting the TE. 

Oliver is a terrible scheme fit for us anyway. 

 

In the 2nd, I'd love to grab Erik Mccoy. He's a good blocker that can play C or G.

3rd, I like the NT that UK mentioned earlier. We just really need an ILB more than a TE so I'd also be ok with Devin Bush at 10. Once White goes,  Bush will soon follow. Only problem is his biggest weakness is shedding blocks. He's more of a 4-3 WLB than anything else. But strength and shedding blocks are very fixable and coachable things. 

Edited by BullsandBroncos

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There is a mock in the mock forum that has us trading 10,71,and a later pick for Rosen and Nkemdiche xD

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