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DiehardBronxFan

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1 hour ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

I’ll be Gob-smacked if Locke is still on the board past 25 or so 

I don't think the dynamics of the draft will allow him to fall past 15. Murray / Haskins / Lock / Jones might all be gone by 15, certainly the top 3.

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12 minutes ago, Royal_VT said:

I don't think the dynamics of the draft will allow him to fall past 15. Murray / Haskins / Lock / Jones might all be gone by 15, certainly the top 3.

Idk I think 2 of them go top 10 (AZ and NYG) but after that if no one takes the other 2 I could see them falling into the early 20s

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1 hour ago, broncofan48 said:

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I still expect Miami, Washington, and Cincinnati to be in the hunt.  Now, rumors are Miami is waiting for next year, but not sure I buy it.  Any of them might trade for Rosen.  But even then, you have the teams that aren't "desperate" but need to start looking for the heir apparent:  Chargers, Tampa, even Tennesse, New England. You might see Oakland with one of their later picks, to pressure Carr.  Folks ahead of us in Round 2 will trade up to get a 5th year on the QB (ala the Ravens).   

Pretty sure 4 QB's go in Round 1.  Pretty sure Lock will be one of the top 3.  And will bet a LOT that he doesn't go lower than 25.  Not sure what it would take us to move up from our 2nd round pick to 25 - but pretty sure I don't want to pay it.  If you REALLY are convinced that Locke is the guy, just take him at 10.  Nobody will care about value if he's the guy.  If you're NOT convinced, don't touch him - especially don't trade back up into the first for him - because you're still blowing a first round pick on a bust.  Paxton Lynch, anyone?  

I would be OK if the Broncos take Locke at 10 (prefer Haskins, but if they like Locke, and take him - I'll be OK (until the point in time that he becomes a bust:)).  But I will be very, very disappointed if they trade back into the first for him - as that will mean they're not really confident in him, but spending a first round on him anyway.

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9 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

  If you REALLY are convinced that Locke is the guy, just take him at 10.  Nobody will care about value if he's the guy.  If you're NOT convinced, don't touch him - especially don't trade back up into the first for him - because you're still blowing a first round pick on a bust.  Paxton Lynch, anyone?  

 

Okay, now you've really gone and done it. Tossed common sense into the discussion. Whats up with that?

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Building on what AAA was saying earlier, hearing more talk of the Broncos trying to trade back into the 1st for Locke, and even some speculation that they may be thinking of bundling their 2nd and Harris to move up.  I have NO idea if there is any truth to the speculation.  But if it were to happen, I would be beyond livid with Elway.  

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35 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Building on what AAA was saying earlier, hearing more talk of the Broncos trying to trade back into the 1st for Locke, and even some speculation that they may be thinking of bundling their 2nd and Harris to move up.  I have NO idea if there is any truth to the speculation.  But if it were to happen, I would be beyond livid with Elway.  

You are not the only one

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The idea is sound to use Harris and get the QBOTF.   That would be my hope if we were dealing for 2020 assets it’s aimed at getting enough ammo.  Why a 1st/2nd or even better a 1st/3rd swap for 2020 is the Holy Grail.  

If we did it for Lock.....ugh.  Any 4-year starter with his tools that teams are passing up on for 30+ picks shows red flags that don’t merit a 1st.   And if we traded Harris to get into Rd1 to acquire him we’d likely be committing another 3 offseasons given the capital spent.  Man.  

I get there’s optimism Scangarelli can develop QB’s better than Kubiak & past co.   Just would hate that we’d be going after the same skill profile that’s been Elway’s nemesis.   And Lock’s flaws are scary.  

This also means if we don’t go Lock at 1.10 we aren’t safe from spending big on him yet.  So will need to stay on edge until he is taken.   Damn so now if we don’t think Lock is the guy we need to root he goes early enough after 1.10 it doesn’t tempt Elway to reach back into Rd1.  Man.  

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44 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The idea is sound to use Harris and get the QBOTF.   That would be my hope if we were dealing for 2020 assets it’s aimed at getting enough ammo.  Why a 1st/2nd or even better a 1st/3rd swap for 2020 is the Holy Grail.  

If we did it for Lock.....ugh.  Any 4-year starter with his tools that teams are passing up on for 30+ picks shows red flags that don’t merit a 1st.   And if we traded Harris to get into Rd1 to acquire him we’d likely be committing another 3 offseasons given the capital spent.  Man.  

I get there’s optimism Scangarelli can develop QB’s better than Kubiak & past co.   Just would hate that we’d be going after the same skill profile that’s been Elway’s nemesis.   And Lock’s flaws are scary.  

This also means if we don’t go Lock at 1.10 we aren’t safe from spending big on him yet.  So will need to stay on edge until he is taken.   Damn so now if we don’t think Lock is the guy we need to root he goes early enough after 1.10 it doesn’t tempt Elway to reach back into Rd1.  Man.  

That is a great point. I think the worst thing for all of us would be if Lock were available at 25 or whatever, tempting Elway.

It seems that we all agree with what DieHardBronxFan said - if he isn't your guy at 10 then he isn't worth it later in the 1st. 

If the front office believes in a QB enough to take them at 10? That is fine with me. 

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35 minutes ago, Royal_VT said:

That is a great point. I think the worst thing for all of us would be if Lock were available at 25 or whatever, tempting Elway.

It seems that we all agree with what DieHardBronxFan said - if he isn't your guy at 10 then he isn't worth it later in the 1st. 

If the front office believes in a QB enough to take them at 10? That is fine with me. 

The flaws with Lock just scream that he's not worth any 1st round pick.     Thor Nystrom broke down all the top 10 QB's, and his analysis of Lock was spot-on for the risks - elite college QB's don't struggle like he did vs. good teams (it's not even close), and there hasn't been a QB who's struggled as much as he has and been a top NFL QB worth the Rd1 pick.   And his tape backs up the reasons - wilts vs. pressure, and awful mechanics.  The mechanics part is potentially fixable, but then we get to the flat growth curve the last 2 seasons.   It's ominous to say the least, when production and skills analysis raise huge flags.   History says either you are 1st round worthy or not - I just don't see it with Lock, I wish I did.    And unlike Mahomes or even Josh Allen, the ceiling from the toolset isn't crazy high - it's just the highest in this draft class.   

Both Mahomes and Allen have insane tool profiles - Lock's is just best-of-2019, not potentially generational (while Allen's accuracy flaws are still scary bad, but we see the generational tools translate).

In case ppl think it's just bias speaking, take a look:

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/patrick-mahomes/ - 95th percentile agility, 97th velocity, 78th SPARQ 

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/josh-allen/ - 82nd burst (why he breaks long runs), 70th agility, 100th velocity, 73rd SPARQ

Those are insane tools for a QB.  And both have generational arm talents (again not just velocity, 1 measure doesn't capture arm talent fully, but it's a reflection of the entire set there).

https://www.playerprofiler.com/nfl/drew-lock/ - 80th agility, 37th velocity, 86th SPARQ

I'll preface the site's info by stating arm strength is more than just peak velocity.  But the skill profile on agility and tape bear out the concerns.  His agility doesn't translate because he doesn't react well at all to pressure.  And his arm isn't that special, it's just combined with his size and other tools, ceiling-wise he's seen as best of this class (at least before Murray showed up).   That's just a scary bad profile for NFL success, and worse for 1st round risk.

Production-wise the gap between bad/good opposition is scary (P5 non-bowl, less than 9W as bad, P5 Bowl or 9W+ G5 teams as good)

Vs. Bad teams:  16-1, 10.0 YPA, 11.6% TD rate (a TD every 9th throw), 62/6 TD:INT ratio

Vs. Good teams: 6-24, 6.2 YPA, 6.7% TD rate, 37/33 TD:INT ratio.

Contrast that with Mahomes, whose numbers stay exactly the same on a bad TT team.  And the tape shows exactly the same problems about Lock vs. pressure and decent competition.   Anyone who says Lock has the Mahomes profile is doing really lazy analysis.

TBH I'm only comfortable with Haskins this year out of all the guys we likely could see, and that's even with a question on only having 1 year of tape - just his skills shown are most NFL-predictive for success.   

Edited by Broncofan
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Lot of talk that we are looking to trade down from 10. Lot of talk that the Redskins want to trade up for Haskins.  Lots of potential landing spots for them Besides Denver, of course, but we get them in front of Cinccy and Miami, and it’s not as big a jump as having to move ahead  of NYG.  ALL the noise out here is that Giants are going D at 6, and will wait on a QB until later. 

Id be down with a trade back with Washington - what do we think we could expect in compensation? Next years first and a 3rd this year? 

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1 minute ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Lot of talk that we are looking to trade down from 10. Lot of talk that the Redskins want to trade up for Haskins.  Lots of potential landing spots for them Besides Denver, of course, but we get them in front of Cinccy and Miami, and it’s not as big a jump as having to move ahead  of NYG.  ALL the noise out here is that Giants are going D at 6, and will wait on a QB until later. 

Id be down with a trade back with Washington - what do we think we could expect in compensation? Next years first and a 3rd this year? 

The difference between 10 and 16 is a low 2nd-high 3rd. Even factoring in over value for a QB the trade would probably be 10 and 148 for 15 and 46.

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15 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Lot of talk that we are looking to trade down from 10. Lot of talk that the Redskins want to trade up for Haskins.  Lots of potential landing spots for them Besides Denver, of course, but we get them in front of Cinccy and Miami, and it’s not as big a jump as having to move ahead  of NYG.  ALL the noise out here is that Giants are going D at 6, and will wait on a QB until later. 

Id be down with a trade back with Washington - what do we think we could expect in compensation? Next years first and a 3rd this year? 

 

10 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

The difference between 10 and 16 is a low 2nd-high 3rd. Even factoring in over value for a QB the trade would probably be 10 and 148 for 15 and 46.

I think we'd want to try hard to target WAS's 2020 1st, so I'd pimp hard for 2020 1st for our 2020 3rd and call it a day.  It could backfire if WAS somehow makes it to 20's range or close, but that could also net us a top 10 pick.  It's worth the gamble.  The problem of course is that a) the QB Was desperately wants has to be there, and B) Elway is willing to invest in next year's draft as main capital.   Both premises are very much up in doubt.

It's just that if WAS is the suitor, that's a team that has real opportunity to go bottom 10 next year.   A team like ATL or HOU who is looking to move up, hard to see that kind of fall.  Presents a great opportunity.  Just doesn't help as much this year - which is a huge issue for Elway's win-now public statements.

I wouldn't give away present-day value to get WAS's 2020 1st (i.e. it has to be valued properly), but if there's a deal that makes sense for WAS to move up with us, 2020 1st has huge hidden ceiling appeal.   On that note, if WAS really thinks they need a QB to contend again, a blockbuster where Harris is involved wouldn't be crazy.   Snyder's a TOTAL wild-card in what he'd be willing to do to win now, and we know he doesn't value picks at all.

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