rcon14 Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 Plenty of talk about what it would take to move around within the first round this year, and Gute even mentioned it as a real possibility within his presser today, so I figured I'd go through Rich Hill's TVC (more current than the old Jimmy Johnson one), and showcase how much it would take for GB to move up or what GB could get moving back. This is strictly using the TVC which is by no means perfect. It also doesn't include anything extra like a "QB tax" that we've seen on moves up for QBs. This is what it would cost GB to move up from 12. 1: Literally the entire 2019 draft and likely a first rounder in 2020. 2: 12, 30, 44, 114, 150 3: 12, 44, 114, 150 4: 12, 44 5: 12, 44 6: 12, 75, 114, 118 7: 12, 75, 118 8: 12, 114, 118, 150 9: 12, 114, 150 10: 12, 118 11: 12, 150 PACKERS PICK AT 12 Next section will be for trading back from 12, what GB could receive. Again, this does not include a "QB tax" which is certainly possible given the fact that there are two QBs that are expected/potentially still available at 12. This also factors in what draft capital those teams have available to them at this time. 13: 13, 151 14: 14, 117 15: 15, 96 16: 16, 100, 187 17: 17, 95, 143 18: 18, 81, 190 19: 19, 82, 121 20: 20, 83, 122, 192 21: 21, future 2nd, and future 3rd PERHAPS a future 1st instead (discount rates on future picks aren't super well established) 22: 22, future 2nd, and 85 PERHAPS a future 1st instead 23: 23, 54 24: 24, 35, future 4th AND GB gives up 75 25: 25, 53, 163 26: 26, 59, 89, AND GB gives up 150 27: 27, 35 AND GB gives up 114, and 150 28: 28, 60, 91, 166 29: 29, 61, 63, AND GB gives up 118 PACKERS PICK AT 30 Next section will be GB trading up from 30 assuming they picked at 12. 13: 30, 44, 185 14: 30, 44 15: 30, 44, AND WAS gives up 153 16: 30, 44, AND CAR gives up 115 17: 30, 75, 114, 150 18: 30, 75, 114 19: 30, 75, 118 20: 30, 75, 150 21: 30, 75 22: 30, 75, AND BAL gives up 193 23: 30, 75, AND HOU gives up 161 24: 30, 114, 150 25: 30, 118, 150 26: 30, 114 27: 30, 118 28: 30, 150 29: 30, 185 PACKERS PICK AT 30 Final section will be GB trading back from 30 in the first round 31: 31, 203 32: 32, 134 Hope this helps with the draft trade prognostication/speculation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacReady Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 Only way I'm trading down past 20th overall is if we're getting a 2020 first. 12th, 30th and 44th are enough strong talent to give LaFleur a good start to his time as head coach, so we don't really need more second round picks, but I'm ALWAYS a fan of getting ANYBODY'S next year first round pick. I feel like every single team is a ripple effect away from a top 10 pick. Even the Patriots. If time suddenly caught up on Brady the way it did to Peyton, or a rough start snowballing into losses and lost faith in a coach... Extra second round picks just don't do it for me. As far as trading up, the value simply isn't there for me until 4th overall. I could live with losing our second round pick to get Oliver or Allen or maybe even Bosa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SSG Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 I hate the idea of moving up but would welcome the move back if the right edge rusher isn't there. IMO, the differance in this draft between 12 and the early 20's is very minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted April 22, 2019 Author Share Posted April 22, 2019 Just now, Outpost31 said: Only way I'm trading down past 20th overall is if we're getting a 2020 first. 12th, 30th and 44th are enough strong talent to give LaFleur a good start to his time as head coach, so we don't really need more second round picks, but I'm ALWAYS a fan of getting ANYBODY'S next year first round pick. I feel like every single team is a ripple effect away from a top 10 pick. Even the Patriots. If time suddenly caught up on Brady the way it did to Peyton, or a rough start snowballing into losses and lost faith in a coach... Extra second round picks just don't do it for me. As far as trading up, the value simply isn't there for me until 4th overall. I could live with losing our second round pick to get Oliver or Allen or maybe even Bosa. Depending on the discount rate you use, the earliest you're probably looking at getting that is about is probably 25? OAK's is too high, HOU has too many other assets to be leveraged into that. Even past that, KC has multiple 2s, OAK isn't giving their 2020 1, maybe LAC? Other than that, I can't see a way you get a 2020 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcon14 Posted April 22, 2019 Author Share Posted April 22, 2019 Just now, SSG said: I hate the idea of moving up but would welcome the move back if the right edge rusher isn't there. IMO, the differance in this draft between 12 and the early 20's is very minimal. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smetana34 Posted April 22, 2019 Share Posted April 22, 2019 I'd be all for a trade down with Oakland for 24 or 27, and 35. Four picks in the first 44 sounds better than four picks in the first 75. We'd be able to add four high quality players, and we can use a guy at just about every position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pacman5252 Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 I wouldn’t be shocked it we moved up to 17-22 from 30. We have extra picks and with 12 we likely will have a lot of hot takes on top 15 talent. I could see Gute being aggressive for a top 10 player on his board that fell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 I think we could get 15 and 76 from Washington if they traded up. If it meant us giving them 118 back, I'd pull the trigger in a heartbeat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 I would 100% move up to 8/9 for Josh Allen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackerLegend Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 On 2019-04-22 at 12:20 PM, SSG said: I hate the idea of moving up but would welcome the move back if the right edge rusher isn't there. IMO, the differance in this draft between 12 and the early 20's is very minimal. my thoughts too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scoremore Posted April 23, 2019 Share Posted April 23, 2019 19 hours ago, deathstar said: I would 100% move up to 8/9 for Josh Allen. He's my favorite player in the draft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
squire12 Posted April 25, 2019 Share Posted April 25, 2019 On 4/22/2019 at 1:07 PM, rcon14 said: Next section will be for trading back from 12, what GB could receive. Again, this does not include a "QB tax" which is certainly possible given the fact that there are two QBs that are expected/potentially still available at 12. This also factors in what draft capital those teams have available to them at this time. 13: 13, 151 14: 14, 11715: 15, 96 16: 16, 100, 18717: 17, 95, 143 18: 18, 81, 190 19: 19, 82, 121 20: 20, 83, 122, 192 21: 21, future 2nd, and future 3rd PERHAPS a future 1st instead (discount rates on future picks aren't super well established) 22: 22, future 2nd, and 85 PERHAPS a future 1st instead23: 23, 54 24: 24, 35, future 4th AND GB gives up 75 25: 25, 53, 163 26: 26, 59, 89, AND GB gives up 150 27: 27, 35 AND GB gives up 114, and 150 28: 28, 60, 91, 166 29: 29, 61, 63, AND GB gives up 118 Looking at some options and teams 15: 15, 96 WAS could a QB and a short move up is possible to get ahead of MIA. 17: 17, 95, 143 NYG if they go D at pick 6, could look to move up for a QB. Instead of the pick 143, I would want GB to get a pick in 2020, maybe a 2nd and give back a 4th or 5th in 2020 23: 23, 54 HOU They could use OT help and someone like Taylor or Dillard would make a lot of sense for them. Would likely need another pick to make that a go. Would rather not move that far down in round 1. Trading down might be a nice option to grab Simmons and then allow more options to move up from either 30 or 44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.