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Reassessing the RB Draft at the 11th Hour

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29 minutes ago, soulman said:

And now.....back on topic; 11th Hour RB Reassessment, or maybe it's quarter to 12:00 by now, whatever. :D

Reading the Trib this AM and Biggs sees Montgomery as a possibility at #87 and Wiederer is looking at Henderson at #87 or Hill at #126.  Campbell seems to favor Armstead on Day 3 if Montgomery, Harris, and Henderson are gone at #87.

Hill at #126 I can see since he's really more of a specialty back but does anyone else feel any of the other three would fall as far as #87.

I think their values are way off.

I think Henderson is a lock in the 2nd and Hill is a lock to be gone before 126. 

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6 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Do not fear success.

The goal for this team is a deep playoff run.

To accomplish that they need to get past the 1st round of the playoffs. A large reason they did not get out of the 1st round was that the offense scored 15 points. A large reason that the offense scored 15 points was that Burton was hurt, Shaheen demanded no respect, and Cohen was doubled out of the game.

If you do no think last years team could have won the Super Bowl you are crazy. Make that kick, beat up Goff, and then see what happens.

The goal is SB win.

I think a healthy Bears team is a top 4 team in 2019 with as good a chance to win it all as any. 

This is a much better team on paper than Urlacher led SB team. Best Bears team since ‘85. 

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29 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

Do not fear success.

The goal for this team is a deep playoff run.

To accomplish that they need to get past the 1st round of the playoffs. A large reason they did not get out of the 1st round was that the offense scored 15 points. A large reason that the offense scored 15 points was that Burton was hurt, Shaheen demanded no respect, and Cohen was doubled out of the game.

If you do no think last years team could have won the Super Bowl you are crazy. Make that kick, beat up Goff, and then see what happens.

Could have been in?  Probably.  Could have won?  Maybe.

We stack up well enough talent wise but playoff experience helps and this team had none.

I don't fear anything and I know what the goal is but we still a young team with a young QB still installing all of our offense.  So it's there we should look for another quantum leap forward if we expect a championship.  It takes offense to get ya' there in we lacked it when we needed it.

I'm already convinced we need another "F" or "U" TE but I thought that was a given.  We typically carry four and we only have three.

Where we differ is on Shaheen.  I'm not expecting from him what you seem to be.  He's gonna be the "Y" TE but one with much better receiving skills than most in line TEs.  His best place as a receiver will be in the red zone inside the ten.  He's a scorer more so than a drive extender.  JMHO

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39 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

I think their values are way off.

I think Henderson is a lock in the 2nd and Hill is a lock to be gone before 126. 

I would have thought so too but Biggs and Wiederer are fairly well connected to scouting and personnel circles.

My only response would be that I was somewhat surprised as well but when I combine all of what I'm reading the demand for RBs seems to outstrip the supply in this draft.  Personally I think Jacobs and Sander may be the first to go.  Then you have Montgomery, Henderson, and Harris seemingly ranked next. Unless there's a run on backs from the mid 2nd to the mid 3rd it's not impossible on may fall as far as #87.

My reading tells me it's fairly deep draft for Edge Rushers and CBs as well as TEs and RB would seem to rate somewhere lower than those position in most team hierarchy of needs including our own.  If that ends up being the case the entire class of RBs may be pushed back somewhat but we won't know 'til the 2nd and 3rd round get well under way.

In any event I expect Pace to stick with his BPA approach because it's worked for him in the past.  So we could see a back in 3 or as late as 5.

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1 hour ago, WindyCity said:

I think their values are way off.

I think Henderson is a lock in the 2nd and Hill is a lock to be gone before 126. 

You might be right with Henderson being invited to draft.  I have to think they secretly poll teams for that now to avoid embarrassment.

Hill I can also believe because I can't believe others aren't high on him.  Guy is a home run hitter.

I watched a little of that Bryce Love at Stanford and he is a home run hitter too when healthy.   His lack of ability to stay healthy would make me very weary of him and would keep me from drafting him before 4th or 5th, but he has incredible on field speed.   I don't care what his 40 time and I don't know what it is, but when healthy that dude is lightening fast with pads on grass.

I would say a healthy Bryce Love > Henderson on tape.  Difference is Henderson stays healthy.  

 

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1 hour ago, soulman said:

Could have been in?  Probably.  Could have won?  Maybe.

We stack up well enough talent wise but playoff experience helps and this team had none.

I don't fear anything and I know what the goal is but we still a young team with a young QB still installing all of our offense.  So it's there we should look for another quantum leap forward if we expect a championship.  It takes offense to get ya' there in we lacked it when we needed it.

I'm already convinced we need another "F" or "U" TE but I thought that was a given.  We typically carry four and we only have three.

Where we differ is on Shaheen.  I'm not expecting from him what you seem to be.  He's gonna be the "Y" TE but one with much better receiving skills than most in line TEs.  His best place as a receiver will be in the red zone inside the ten.  He's a scorer more so than a drive extender.  JMHO

I am not sure how you can say that?

He has shown next to nothing as a receiver and that is if he is even healthy.

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, WindyCity said:

I am not sure how you can say that?

He has shown next to nothing as a receiver and that is if he is even healthy.

Windy, he's only been targeted 20 times in his entire career.  He caught 17 of them (85%) and 4 of them were TDs (25%) including one very acrobatic one as I recall. 

Burton was targted 76 times last season and had 54 receptions (71%) and 6 TDs (11%).

Given how much we spread that ball around I don't what a fair number would be to assign to Shaheen over a 16 game season but if was 40% of Burton's targets and he retained that same efficiency he'd have 30 targets/26 catches/6 tds.  Even his avg ypc is similar to Burton's. That's how I can say that.

You're apparently looking for something much different from his than how I believe Nagy intends to use him.  Let's see what shakes out this year and if it's not good I'll be happy to admit it but so far what we have to go on just isn't enough to make a final judgement.  Not on a guy coming from a Div III program with as little experience as he's had.  It's not like he's been a complete failure and we knew all along he would need to be coached up.

Edited by soulman

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Posted (edited)

Hill seems to be the most likely scenario,  barring Pace being able  to trade up for Sanders ...

I don't think Hill will last until  126 so he would have  to be the pick at #87 if he is Pace's guy.  THEN  get a starting G at 126 and then a starting  K  at some point  ...   I would  say draft  a starting CB, but OG will have much better (starter quality) value  at #126 

 

Edited by SLCbear

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I'm also a BIG Shaheen guy ...  that said I know that this draft is deep at TE, grabbing a starting  weapon at TE would be good value at #126

Can Shaheen stay healthy  ???

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Posted (edited)
44 minutes ago, soulman said:

Windy, he's only been targeted 20 times in his entire career.  He caught 17 of them (85%) and 4 of them were TDs (25%) including one very acrobatic one as I recall. 

Burton was targted 76 times last season and had 54 receptions (71%) and 6 TDs (11%).

Given how much we spread that ball around I don't what a fair number would be to assign to Shaheen over a 16 game season but if was 40% of Burton's targets and he retained that same efficiency he'd have 30 targets/26 catches/6 tds.  Even his avg ypc is similar to Burton's. That's how I can say that.

You're apparently looking for something much different from his than how I believe Nagy intends to use him.  Let's see what shakes out this year and if it's not good I'll be happy to admit it but so far what we have to go on just isn't enough to make a final judgement.  Not on a guy coming from a Div III program with as little experience as he's had.  It's not like he's been a complete failure and we knew all along he would need to be coached up.

My concern is not what he has done with his targets. It is that he is not targeted, because he struggles to get open or he is hurt.

Nagy has said a number of times that it is important that everyone on the field be a threat to the defense. He traded a super productive RB because he was not a threat in the passing game.

 

Adam Shaheen should be the Bears #3 TE. That is 70% health and 30% talent.

Edited by WindyCity

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3 hours ago, dll2000 said:

You might be right with Henderson being invited to draft.  I have to think they secretly poll teams for that now to avoid embarrassment.

I was thinking about this as well, and realized Henderson could also be an invite simply because someone else declined, and Memphis---> Nashville is a fairly short journey, making him a very likely player to accept and attend 

Granted, I haven't been at all following expected first rounders this draft cycle, but many seemed to often do their own private draft parties, often sponsored by random companies. Perhaps he's more of a "seat filler" they can put on camera.

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The crazy thing is this draft has an abundance of mid tier talent at quite a few positions and not as much at others.

We have three picks we really need to do well with and then also hope we get some help outta our 7ths and UDFA group.  With our cap situation getting tighter due to so many younger core players to re-sign we're gonna need younger cheaper talent to replace good vets who become cap casualties.

I'm hoping for at least two guys who can step in and help on offense this year and two or more players who might step up within a year or two to take over starting or primary backup roles.  But for now they be competing with back end of the roster types and either playing ST or on the PS.

I totally reject the idea that we are likely to have to punt this draft and pay the price for Mack and Miller.  That's never been how Pace has approached it.

We should be looking to upgrade our worst players and thinnest positions.  That what middle round picks have typically been except Pace has been better at finding starting talent there than some.  Yeah, we have more picks in 2020 and higher picks as well and the scenario should be the same next year.

We aren't in a pinch for a starter at a single position so draft the best guys on your board at each pick only ranking a position of need higher when two or more guys are rated equal.  It's all about drafting good football players and if we can't use the guy now soon we will because we're gonna have to shed some vet talent over the next two offseasons.  The system Pace has been using has worked and if it ain't broken keep using it.

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I expect that we will get some depth and competition from this draft. If the first 3 picks are primary backups on the roster that would be a nice haul from this Mack/Miller draft.

I am not expecting any type of instant starter material, except maybe at RB, the resources are just not there. Late 3rd round picks and 4th round picks should contribute as rookies and have a role, but it is asking a lot for them to be quickly starters like Whitehair, Goldman, Daniels, Miller and clear building blocks.

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6 minutes ago, WindyCity said:

My concern is not what he has done with his targets. It is that he is not targeted, because he struggles to get open or he is hurt.

Nagy has said a number of times that it is important that everyone on the field be a threat to the defense. He traded a super productive RB because he was not a threat in the passing game.

 

Adam Shaheen should be the Bears #3 TE. That is 70% health and 30% talent.

Fine.  So we draft a TE.  I've never been opposed to that or to making that our priority pick.

But if our target is a guy whose more receiver than blocker it's not Shaheen he'll be pushing anyway it'll be Braunecker.

Or.....can we find a guy whose both?  Seems to me that type is rare.  Most guys seemed to be pegged as "Y" types or "F"/"U" types.

But I'm still content to give Shaheen a full 16 games to prove himself provided he can stay healthy for 16 games.  IIRC the issue in his rookie year was a concussion was it not?  Not much you can do about that because of the protocol and last year was kind of a freak injury so I'm not gonna label him injury prone due to being too brittle or anything like that and not to a lack of conditioning either.  Can't do much about concussions.

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18 minutes ago, soulman said:

Fine.  So we draft a TE.  I've never been opposed to that or to making that our priority pick.

But if our target is a guy whose more receiver than blocker it's not Shaheen he'll be pushing anyway it'll be Braunecker.

Or.....can we find a guy whose both?  Seems to me that type is rare.  Most guys seemed to be pegged as "Y" types or "F"/"U" types.

But I'm still content to give Shaheen a full 16 games to prove himself provided he can stay healthy for 16 games.  IIRC the issue in his rookie year was a concussion was it not?  Not much you can do about that because of the protocol and last year was kind of a freak injury so I'm not gonna label him injury prone due to being too brittle or anything like that and not to a lack of conditioning either.  Can't do much about concussions.

Shoot for a guy who is both.

It is not like Shaheen is an above average blocker. The new guy does not need to be a man mover for him to be as good a blocker as Shaheen.

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