2019 NFL Draft Live GDT - NO SPOILERS DON'T POST PICKS UNTIL TELEVISED

[Broncofan]

25 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Also, no CB taken thus far leads me to believe Harris will be around this year. Unless of course we trade him during this round.

I applaud Elway for not reaching for CB - once the run happened, the value wasn't there.   I would have been fine with Pratt at ILB but given Elway's trending to drafting guys he's brought in this year, I definitely see the long-term need for a DL replacement.  I don't think Wolfe is likely staying, and Gotsis' rookie deal is expiring, and it's pretty iffy on giving him any major $ if he doesn't surge in pass rush.   This is a solid value pick, DL depth wasn't great starting Day 2, but the CB/WR/OL run let Jones fall at a good value slot.

I think it's real iffy that we get Harris extended, but really, if there wasn't a guy worth taking at 3.71, then passing on CB is still the right call.  I think that Harris won't be with us next year, we won't even bother with exploring a franchise tag given how Harris could hold out and stall that plan, and he could still very well be traded if someone gives an offer we can't refuse when the CB options are bare, but forcing picks is what got Elway in trouble for his post-2012 pre-2018 Day 2 drafts. 

 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Just finished Avengers and buddies texted me we got Lock.  

I was so upset - until I found out we took Risner first.    I've said a guy like Lock should be a Rd3 type developmental guy in most drafts - so I'm not going to get worked up with our 3rd pick, albeit if he just fell to us at 51, then even less cost, but Day 3 isn't by any means a big price.

The only problem is if Lock doesn't work, we likely pass for the 2020 draft even if we are in position for an early talent who would be better.   That's why I was so relieved we didn't spend a 1st or trade back into the 1st.   I'm still not a fan, but the risk is about 10x less than what was being considered. 

The insurance is that the disaster scenario is if Haskins is great and Lock isn't, and we pass on a franchise QB in 2020 because we need to see what Lock can do, and Fant takes more than 2 years to have an impact.    But we need 3 different outcomes there to be worst-case.   If both Lock / Haskins have the same outcome or close, then it's fine given we accumulated other assets if both whiff and cheaper cost, and no one will mind if both are successful QB's.   

Fant/Risner are just such a good 1-2 tandem start given that we traded back, I can live with the extra risk Lock presents - so long as Elway doesn't marry himself to Lock's future. 

QB-wise, we'll always look to see how Haskins and Lock turned out when we look back.  But we also can look to Elway going skill/BPA talent with the first 2 picks - and that's a refreshing change we've seen in 2018-19, and a callback to his 2011-12 successes, and away from his win-now, need based early picks in 2013-17.   When it's only 1 year, it could be a fluke.  2 years, and it's a trend. 

Still have some more work to do, but as much as I'm not a fan of Lock - I can get behind not forcing the pick and getting 2 much better non-QB talents IMO.   My hat's off there.  

I get the reservations on Lock, but he’s a so much different pick than what Elway has done with Osweiler and Lynch.  Not saying you’re comparing Lock to them, but just in general, he isn’t a pure upside pick.  Lock played 4 years in the SEC, improved in areas every year, and was a 3 year captain.  He also fits this system perfectly.  Yes, he’s an Elway type guy like Osweiler/Lynch, big/athletic/strong arm, but he has 4 year track record against top competition.

As far as Fant, I’ve read multiple times not to expect much from him for a few years because he’s a TE.  I don’t completely disagree with that.  Historically TEs take time, Evan Engram had one of the best rookie years in history and caught like 60 balls.  However, no system schemes TEs better than a Shanahan WCO.  Now I don’t think Fant goes for 80-1000-10, but I think he’s a day 1 impact player who can go for 50/60-700/800-5/8, which is what Engram did.  For this team that’s a HUGE addition and a day 1 impact. 

[Broncofan]

15 minutes ago, germ-x said:

I get the reservations on Lock, but he’s a so much different pick than what Elway has done with Osweiler and Lynch.  Not saying you’re comparing Lock to them, but just in general, he isn’t a pure upside pick.  Lock played 4 years in the SEC, improved in areas every year, and was a 3 year captain.  He also fits this system perfectly.  Yes, he’s an Elway type guy like Osweiler/Lynch, big/athletic/strong arm, but he has 4 year track record against top competition.

As far as Fant, I’ve read multiple times not to expect much from him for a few years because he’s a TE.  I don’t completely disagree with that.  Historically TEs take time, Evan Engram had one of the best rookie years in history and caught like 60 balls.  However, no system schemes TEs better than a Shanahan WCO.  Now I don’t think Fant goes for 80-1000-10, but I think he’s a day 1 impact player who can go for 50/60-700/800-5/8, which is what Engram did.  For this team that’s a HUGE addition and a day 1 impact. 

The issue with the 4-year record - he's actual awful vs. good D's.  It's scary.   62:6 TD/INT ratio, 10+ YPA vs, teams that are either P5 non-bowl, less than 9W teams - vs. 6.2 YPA, 35:33 TD-INT vs. 9+W/bowl teams.   And that's 20+ games in the latter category.    And his problem occurs with pressure, and his mechanics need an overhaul - but haven't really improved during those 4 years.   But I can get behind the fact that at least there's a legit ceiling that's not just ALL projection of tools.   It's just there's a lot of bust risk, given those problems are very difficult to fix.  Still, given we didn't reach for our 1.10, trade back into 1.30's, or even use 2.41 instead of Risner, it lessens the investment - which really helps reduce the magnitude of the miss if it happens.   This isn't a Lynch redux where we passed up on Chris Jones and a 3rd (where Jones was confirmed as the nonQB we wanted if we had stayed put and SEA/KC got Lynch).   That helps a lot.

Honestly, the bigger reason to be optimistic is that we aren't dealing with Kubiak & co. for QB development.   Scangarelli making a total JAG look serviceable (not great, but serviceable), it offers hope he can fix Lock's problems.  There's just a lot of work to do. But yeah, we didn't go insane on being all-in investment wise.    The evaluation that Lock wasn't work being one of our top 2 guys is a refreshing change - if he falls far enough, QB prospects become worth some risk as the price goes down.   

Re: Fant, given TE's 5th year option at pick 11-30 is insanely reasonable (less than 6M in 2019) - we only need 3+ impact years, 4 would be great.   That means it's OK to have a 1 year redshirt year.   Like you said, Shanny's WCO gets a lot out of move TE's.   Iowa's system is the most NFL-friendly for TE development.   Still, year 1 we should really temper expectations.  Even if he doesn't repeat Evan Engram's rookie year, we should NOT get worried.   

The final part I can get behind - Elway's said this is a win-now team, which we can see seems a big stretch (and with no CHJ, it's pure delusion).  But by going BPA over pure need early, he's putting us in better shape for 2020+ than reaching purely for need like he did in 2013-17.  So we're back to using the draft more for year 2 than being all about year 1 (2017 being the absolute worst, in going after 2 gadget WR's and a kick returning RB, and DE Walker Rd2  to try and have an immediate impact and failing miserably).   

It's a refreshing change back to Elway's 2011-12 draft success.  It's been a huge balm after so much Day 2 failure.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Broncofan

[germ-x]

3 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

The issue with the 4-year record - he's actual awful vs. good D's.  It's scary.   62:6 TD/INT ratio, 10+ YPA vs, teams that are either P5 non-bowl, less than 9W teams - vs. 6.2 YPA, 35:33 TD-INT vs. 9+W/bowl teams.   And that's 20+ games in the latter category.    And his problem occurs with pressure, and his mechanics need an overhaul - but haven't really improved during those 4 years.   But I can get behind the fact that at least there's a legit ceiling that's not just ALL projection of tools.   It's just there's a lot of bust risk, given those problems are very difficult to fix.  Still, given we didn't reach for our 1.10, trade back into 1.30's, or even use 2.41 instead of Risner, it lessens the investment - which really helps reduce the magnitude of the miss if it happens.   This isn't a Lynch redux where we passed up on Chris Jones and a 3rd (where Jones was confirmed as the nonQB we wanted if we had stayed put and SEA/KC got Lynch).   That helps a lot.

Honestly, the bigger reason to be optimistic is that we aren't dealing with Kubiak & co. for QB development.   Scangarelli making a total JAG look serviceable (not great, but serviceable), it offers hope he can fix Lock's problems.  There's just a lot of work to do. But yeah, we didn't go insane on being all-in investment wise.    The evaluation that Lock wasn't work being one of our top 2 guys is a refreshing change - if he falls far enough, QB prospects become worth some risk as the price goes down.   

Oh I get it.  Lock was bad vs good teams, but that doesn’t put anything into context.  Missouri’s team is awful.  Literally outside of Lock, Hall (who is hurt 75% of the time) and the TEs name who I can’t spell, they have nothing on either side of the ball.  I watched him vs Alabama this year and Lock was terrible, but talent wise it was like Missouri was trotting out a JV team compared to Alabama’s talent.  

I’m not saying Lock is going to be John Elway, but those statistics lack context because all these 2020 QBs would have looked awful in those games (Tua did vs Clemson). 

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, germ-x said:

Oh I get it.  Lock was bad vs good teams, but that doesn’t put anything into context.  Missouri’s team is awful.  Literally outside of Lock, Hall (who is hurt 75% of the time) and the TEs name who I can’t spell, they have nothing on either side of the ball.  I watched him vs Alabama this year and Lock was terrible, but talent wise it was like Missouri was trotting out a JV team compared to Alabama’s talent.  

I’m not saying Lock is going to be John Elway, but those statistics lack context because all these 2020 QBs would have looked awful in those games (Tua did vs Clemson). 

Yeah, I don't actually hold struggling against Goliath teams against him or other QB's (just like I didn't ding Darnold for his horrific struggles vs. OSU his final game, that was just unfair what a mismatch that was lol) - it's just that Lock's struggles extended to teams like South Carolina/Kentucky, and Big 12 leaky D's like the OSU bowl game.   The tape matches it.

If you're curious, scroll down halfway and look at the game logs from Nystrom's excellent indepth QB evaluation - the film's longer to look at, but it matches.   If it was just the LSU/Bama's, it would be a pretty nitpicky concern.  It just extends a lot further than those Goliaths.

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/evaluations/nfl-draft-qb-deep-dive?page=2 - the graph halfway down is really great work by Nystrom, and his analysis is very fair, not just all the problems - he lists all the reasons why ppl were intrigued.

Still, now that his price is a lot lower, then Lock's being treated more as a project guy, or at least - he should be seen that way, without a firm commitment beyond 2020 as the future.   That and Scangarelli give hope we won't get a similar result as with our past QB choices - and hopefully we won't stay committed far too long if it's clear the problems aren't easily fixed.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

@Counselor it's official the dream method needs tweaking.  Grier's a Panther!  

[germ-x]

11 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, I don't actually hold struggling against Goliath teams against him or other QB's (just like I didn't ding Darnold for his horrific struggles vs. OSU his final game, that was just unfair what a mismatch that was lol) - it's just that Lock's struggles extended to teams like South Carolina/Kentucky, and Big 12 leaky D's like the OSU bowl game.   The tape matches it.

If you're curious, scroll down halfway and look at the game logs from Nystrom's excellent indepth QB evaluation - the film's longer to look at, but it matches.   If it was just the LSU/Bama's, it would be a pretty nitpicky concern.  It just extends a lot further than those Goliaths.

https://www.rotoworld.com/article/evaluations/nfl-draft-qb-deep-dive?page=2 - the graph halfway down is really great work by Nystrom, and his analysis is very fair, not just all the problems - he lists all the reasons why ppl were intrigued.

Still, now that his price is a lot lower, then Lock's being treated more as a project guy, or at least - he should be seen that way, without a firm commitment beyond 2020 as the future.   That and Scangarelli give hope we won't get a similar result as with our past QB choices - and hopefully we won't stay committed far too long if it's clear the problems aren't easily fixed.

You can find pros and cons everywhere.  PFF wasn’t all over Lock, had him as like their 37th prospect.  But the link you sent had Lock as a poor thrower on the move while PFF sees him as a good one and the best vertical passer in the draft (which throwing on the move and throwing vertically are huge in this system). 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-2019-nfl-draft-profile-qb-drew-lock-missouri

I don’t watch enough anymore to know who is right, but all of these places have their own grading system and opinions.  Lock is a hell of prospect, who, IMO, was a steal at 2.42. 

[Broncofan]

13 minutes ago, germ-x said:

You can find pros and cons everywhere.  PFF wasn’t all over Lock, had him as like their 37th prospect.  But the link you sent had Lock as a poor thrower on the move while PFF sees him as a good one and the best vertical passer in the draft (which throwing on the move and throwing vertically are huge in this system). 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/draft-2019-nfl-draft-profile-qb-drew-lock-missouri

I don’t watch enough anymore to know who is right, but all of these places have their own grading system and opinions.  Lock is a hell of prospect, who, IMO, was a steal at 2.42. 

The problem is his footwork when he' on the move - some throws look great, others not so much (and why he misses wide open guys badly some times with no explanation).  That's actually the most fixable problem IMO.  The problems with pressure are harder. 

But yeah, it's not going to be a flawless guy if he's not a Rd1 guy.  That's been my main point, so hard for me to be extremely unhappy when Elway didn't tie a Rd1 value to him, not going to get upset about 40's vs. Rd3, not when it's QB that is the position, since the impact is so much more.   I can't really say I'd have been fine with Haskins at 1.10 and then say I'm aghast we took a risk with our 3rd pick and mid-2nd....the prices are a magnitude of order different in risk, so long as Elway doesn't treat him like a must-stick-with investment beyond 2020.

Edited April 27, 2019 by Broncofan

[Scoundrel]

I’m stunned CGJ and Julian Love are still available. Maybe I just can’t evaluate talent 

[Broncofan]

2 minutes ago, Counselor said:

I’m stunned CGJ and Julian Love are still available. Maybe I just can’t evaluate talent 

Well since I posted that DEN should target BBW later,  clearly I have bigger issues 

Edited April 27, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

On a serious note, the one guy I'm stunned fell is Hakeem Butler.   I'm not that surprised that DK Metcalf fell with his injury history and the concerns of his complete lack of short-area skill (I have literally never seen that extreme of a combo - All-Pro tool ceiling, complete David Boston post-bulking up bust floor), but Butler surprised me.   I still think he's an amazing value for whoever picks him.

[broncofan48]

So who’s everyone’s targets for the 2 picks in the 5th tomorrow?

 

[Scoundrel]

1 minute ago, broncofan48 said:

So who’s everyone’s targets for the 2 picks in the 5th tomorrow?

 

CGJ and Julian Love haha

[broncofan48]

8 minutes ago, Counselor said:

CGJ and Julian Love haha

You think they’ll keep dropping till Denver picks? Haha

[Scoundrel]

14 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

You think they’ll keep dropping till Denver picks? Haha

No I’ll have to revisit the board