2019 NFL Draft Live GDT - NO SPOILERS DON'T POST PICKS UNTIL TELEVISED

[Broncofan]

18 minutes ago, germ-x said:

No doubt, but there aren’t a bunch of QB needy teams anymore.  It’s concerning he’s the #4 QB, but if Denver nabs him at #41, #53, or later I’ll give it an A+ grade.  

You're thinking about teams that would start him right away.  Keep in mind that MIA & LAC both talked to ARI about Rosen.  And we all know NE is looking for a Brady successor.    It's really telling none of those teams felt Lock wasn't worth 1.32 and the 5 years.  It doesn't mean he's worthless - but ppl see him much more as the "project" that gets drafted in Rd 2-3 at earliest, or even later.

My main objection on Lock Rd1  is that if we hooked our wagon to him, we likely pass on a much better draft class in 2020.  If we spend #41, I think that likely still happens.  And right now, I can truly say I see 6-8 impact guys still out there.  Now, nothing matches the impact of a starting QB - but I think Lock's bust potential is sky-high probability wise.   Like I said before, a more in-depth examination by skills analysis and production and growth all show big flags, and a ceiling that's nowhere near Mahomes-lite like some  VERY lazy reports have pushed.  In last year's class with the alternatives present, it wouldn't have been even a question to reach Rd1, more how far back he goes in Day 2, or even early Rd4.  It was just the lack of alternatives that drove the hype this year IMO.

So long as we take him to where we are literally willing to hit 2020's draft class, I'm OK with it.  If taking Lock means we pass next year, that's my objection.  The flaws in his game are so hard to fix, and we don't have the record of success - but the exact opposite (total bust).

I would have been fine with Haskins at 1.10, totally good.  Because I believe his skills we can work with in our staff/structure.  I don't have that confidence with Lock.   The price would be far lower now, but the risk I see with such a high bust potential is we believe we have to pass on future years to give him "his shot".  Basically a Lynch redux (albeit without the Rd1 trade-up pain lol) - think more the Oz V2 experience.   That's all I want to avoid with him and anyone else in this class.    If we pick a QB that commits him as a backup and nothing more, and no commitment to pass on QB early next year, great.  Anything more with Lock (or even Grier, etc.) - pass.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Broncofan

[1234567]

If we can somehow grab Risner and or Ford tomorrow I'd be pretty alright with that. Keep in mind, we have Munchak. Imagine what he could do with our O-line with that kind of talent infused into it. Aaaaand imagine what kind of horror would await our enemies if Freeman and Linsday actually had holes to run through..

Edited April 26, 2019 by 1234567

[broncofan48]

Just now, 1234567 said:

If we can somehow grab Risner and or Ford tomorrow I'd be pretty alright with that. Keep in mind, we have Munchak. Imagine what he could do with our O-line with that kind of talent infused into it. 

Yep I want one of those 2 @ 41, or @Counselor fav CGJ.  I think an IOL plus DB combo in the 2nd not only takes advantage of the BPA players that are left but also fills needs on the squad 

[Broncofan]

4 minutes ago, 1234567 said:

If we can somehow grab Risner and or Ford tomorrow I'd be pretty alright with that. Keep in mind, we have Munchak. Imagine what he could do with our O-line with that kind of talent infused into it. Aaaaand imagine what kind of horror would await our enemies if Freeman and Linsday actually had holes to run through..

Munchak usually needs about 1 year to have his full impact (not surprising).  But yeah, his hire is probably the most compelling reason to be optimistic long-term IMO.  I hope his grandkids stay in COL lol.

Edited April 26, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

1 minute ago, broncofan48 said:

Yep I want one of those 2 @ 41, or @Counselor fav CGJ.  I think an IOL plus DB combo in the 2nd not only takes advantage of the BPA players that are left but also fills needs on the squad 

If a premium WR like Hakeem Butler somehow is still there, it's going to be a huge dilemna.   I truly think the depth of the trenches is what has led to the WR fall, along with the fact that the top 10-12 guys are almost indistinguishable ceiling wise, albeit with very different skill profiles.   It's why a special talent like Butler has fallen this far.   

It's a good problem to have, though.  If there's a run on CB/IOL, then we hit WR.   If the top elite-ceiling WR's go, we go IOL IMO.   I think one unspoken part to the CB equation - Fangio's zone scheme calls for more complete CB's, and less the true shutdown skillset.  I think that may lead to us waiting on CB until Rd3. 

I think the drop in talent we'll see most is in IOL - so that's where we go, unless a huge OL run happens.   Getting a Ford or Risner would be fantastic for 2.43. Both had talk they might crack Rd1.  I do wonder why Taylor's falling still now that teams are going RT-only picks.   That's worth following up on.

[Broncofan]

BTW one other part to the TE discussion - pretty clear by how Fangio/Scangarelli are talking that they are NOT counting on Jake Butt.   Sucks because the 2nd ACL you can't predict, but yet another sad footnote if Butt doesn't work out to a disastrous 2017 draft.  At least in Butt's case, it was great value for the potential, but fitting given how 2017 has gone that it didn't work out.

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by Broncofan

[OrangeNBlue86]

A couple guys I like for tomorrow are Parris Campbell, elgton Jenkins, and Saunders. 

[AKRNA]

I don't see any way we draft a QB until the mid rounds now. Another part or two around Flacco ( IOL, Speedy WR) and we've got the pieces to develop into a very scary offense. I think We'll get those pieces in the next day or two.

[lomaxgrUK]

5 hours ago, AkronsWitness said:

They invested longterm into Huerman----he was a highly rated prospect who produced when healthy. Butt was the shock of last years draft and Elway loved him but he has injuries.

Lacosse/Huerman/Parker carried Keenum at the end of last year. Why not sign one of them

1) Heuerman was signed to a 2 year deal with $2m in guarantees. We could cut him this year for a $1.2m cap save, and next year we can cut him for just $500k in dead cap and $4m in cap saving. We haven't invested in Heuerman for the short term, never mind long term. 

2) "Carried Keenum" - with what production? Is Parker even on an NFL roster right now? Lacosse got a nothing deal in UFA. Clearly the Broncos aren't the only ones who don't value these bang average players. Heuerman hasn't stayed healthy for his entire career.

I find it rather hilarious that this forum (rightly) complains when our team gets roasted by a TE every week, but when we draft one with the intention of roasting other teams, people try to devalue the position ...

I've no clue whatsoever whether Noah Fant will be any good. I've not seen a single game he's played. What I do know, however, is that this team is in dire need of a move TE that creates mismatches in the passing game. That isn't us building around Flacco; that's us recognising what NFL teams need in the modern game to move the Football.

Not sure if anyone remembers (or cares), but in the 'what do you want from this draft' thread, I said I wanted us to move back and collect picks, so I am glad we've done it. That said, the 3rd round pick in next years draft is weak. I can't believe we didn't demand at least a 2nd in that scenario. The lack of trades shows a lack of demand for for moving up so I am guessing that was a factor.

I know people are pumped this time of year, but I find it bizarre that people are so willing to go all out for players they, in reality, know very little about. If the position is a position of need, the value for that particular position is right, I can't see why people won't let it play out.

[BroncoBruin]

I think the only reason I'm not completely ecstatic is that Bush was still on the board, so it's not like they were able to drop out of the nightmare scenario at 10. Still, if Fangio wasn't pounding the table for him I can live with it.

I do wonder what the plan at ILB is because the drop off from the Devins is enormous. I'm still intrigued by trading a potential 4th/5th for Darron Lee, might be the most athletic off ball LB in the league. Can he be coached up? 

[French Fan]

1 hour ago, lomaxgrUK said:

 

. I can't believe we didn't demand at least a 2nd in that scenario. The lack of trades shows a lack of demand for for moving up so I am guessing that was a factor.

 

Draft Value:

1.10=1300 pts

vs

1.20= 850 pts

1.52=380 pts

+ 3 rd 2020 between (116-265) with Pittsburg we can expect 1.80 and 1.90 so 140*190 pts.

The trade is even. The value will be who we pick with the 2nd pick in round 2

[BroncoBruin]

The draft value chart is not the end-all-be-all and it doesn't account for real-life scenarios where demand would be higher. Clearly there wasn't much demand. 

[French Fan]

The draft value chart is the reference even for FO. Only TOP 3 PICK doesn't account.

You cannot exceed the draft value.  Two 2nd round  for 10 spot is not real life

Last year AZ move up from 15 to 10 with a 3rd and 5th for 10 spot we have a 2nd and 3rd 2020. Trade realist demand or not demand

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by French Fan
error

[DiehardBronxFan]

6 hours ago, Broncofan said:

OK, so for Day 2, who's left that we will be very interested in targeting:

 

------ DAY 2 ------

1. IOL - Dalton Risner & Cody Ford stand out as huge BPA picks that fit our need, both would be huge upgrades inside - and as @jrry32 (who researched him hard for LAR) points out, Risner has the ability to play T, so there's versatility.  Ford's short arms seem destined for G, but we should recognize that he played T as well.  Both would be fantastic.   The guy who's falling hard is Jawan Taylor - with McGarry going ahead of him, the RT-only label starts to have less traction, as both are likely RT's.  Wonder if there's some off-field issue we haven't heard about yet.

2.  CB - Byron Murphy would be an awesome fit for a Fangio scheme.   Greedy Williams' issues with tackling seem to make him iffier.   The X factor at 2.11 - Rock-Ya Sin.   Given the Harris situation, you gotta think we will consider this hard.

3.  WR - from a pure talent perspective, we should really consider spending a Day 2 pick here.  Only 2 WR's have left the board, and there are a TON of talented WR's who would go late Rd 1 / early Rd 2 in most drafts - so I don't even think we need to spend 43 on WR - but maybe #52?  Or 3.11.  Either way, the depth at WR and Manny Sanders' cloudy future means that this is an area we should explore.  I won't lie - I think CB/IOL is great at 2.43, but say a guy like Hakeem Butler is there - that's a potential alpha WR1, even more than Sutton (yes, I said even more).    And that's before we get to other talents like Andy Isabella (although slot-only is more likely his role so Hamilton's role is less clear), or Myles Boykin (another really intriguing guy), and guys like Parris Campbell.  Now, we could also wait and get guys like Terry McLaurin Rd3 now IMO.   But we have to hit WR Day 2 with one of our 3 picks, the value is too insane not too (the late Rd1 / early-mid round 2 talent pool is  still about 8-9 deep IMO, albeit with very different skill sets).

4.  Developmental T - We need to prepare for life without Juwan James (I know, he just got here, but that's FA for you), and we need T insurance for injury, or if Bolles just can't take the next step in pass pro.   It's impossible to assume we will have 2 T's healthy for 16 games.   So let's hit developmental T starting somwhere in Rd3-4 onwards.  I realize that we may get an IOL Rd2 who could play T - but IMO you can't have enough cheap young depth for T.  

 

-----DAY 3----

5.  Backup QB - this can wait until Day 3, but we should definitely explore the Thorson/Rypien Rd4-5 idea.  I mention those 2 because Elway brought them (and Stidham) in.  We need a cheap backup, and long-term these guys matter.   While I hated the top tier outside of Haskins, I actually like the 2019 backup-developmental tier, far more than 2018's (which was almost non-existent, while having such a loaded top end).

5.  ILB - sooner or later, we need a pass-coverage ILB, if not 2.  I love @Counselor & @broncos_fan _from _uk's idea of BBK (Ben Burr-Kirven), but we can wait until Day 3.  I don't know that we need to hit this Day 2, the value isn't there.

Ultimately, passing on Haskins and Bush may define our Rd1 - but drafts are more than Rd1.  So hopefully we build on 2018's success (and avoid the 2013-17 failures of Day 2), the encouraging part for Rd2's start is that BPA and need are matching up perfectly - by the time we pick in Rd3, BPA differences aren't nearly as pronounced, so then going need as primary focus becomes very justifiable.  It just so happens need and BPA could fit like a glove Rd2.  We'll see. 

Tomorrow could be awesome - going to see Avengers at 530 PM ET, then back likely just in time for 2.43 lol!  Can't wait!

Don’t forget about McCoy at center.  Would think he’s a prime candidate at 41

[Broncofan]

1 hour ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

Don’t forget about McCoy at center.  Would think he’s a prime candidate at 41

Yeah totally good there.  The fact we are 4 deep at OL should let Elway sit at least for 2-3 picks before thinking of moving up.   

This is now where projecting the board and seeing if your BPA and need can mesh matters.   I posted this on the Would You Be Happy thread but it’s fun to speculate so I’ll repost here the 32-40 projection exercise...

———

To start 2.33 I suspect ARI is locking onto IOL - Cody Ford to join Kyler?   That’s my feel.  

After this pick goes I don’t see moving up to 34-35 as a great idea - it likely won’t be cheap and IND/OAK are bad fits.  The reason everyone is trading back is they saw the 20’s as not much different than the 30’s and I agree there.  The drop-off happened right after Fant / Sweat / Simmons / Dillard went imo (although Tillery was a fantastic pick too).    I don’t think ppl will see dropping back into the 40’s quite the same way - so it will cost a lot more.  IND GM Ballard said he took less to move down to Rd2 because he didn’t see a big board gap at 25 to 30’s range.  But now that’s he’s got extra picks doubt he wants more only so many they can roster.   OAK is never going to make us better unless it helps them a lot more.   So I don’t see great fits there. 

With Ford / Risner / Taylor / McCoy still left and Murphy / Sin / Greedy on the board and only 9 picks left I’d let the first few picks play out.  If RB/WR/QB or some other spots go with ARI/IND/OAK then it’s easy to see us staying put and getting a great value.  Also costs less to move up if the board falls in a more concerning fashion. 

Projecting the round is easier now too.   Looking at the order you’d see: 

33. ARI - OL or WR, likely Ford IMO. 

34.  IND - CB seems the fit here.  

35.  OAK - CB / WR 

36.  SF - CB stands out, WR too. 

37.  SEA - pass rusher but unless they love Ferguson / Winovich this seems early.  WR the other area given they ignore IOL routinely. 

38-40 - TAM, JAX, BUF - now this is where T/IOL again really become glaring needs and BPA fits - TAM was in play for Williams at 1.5 but went Devin White instead.   Taylor / Risner seem like a great match.   JAX could go Irv Smith or WR but also invested in 2 rookie WR last year - seems more trenches will be their focus if it’s not TE.  Same for BUF with Irv Smith although WR is another BPA/need fit.   I do think Risner is a prime target there.  But I didn’t think Ford and Taylor would last this long so it could let Risner fall to us.   But if there’s an area to jump if Elway loves Risner that much it’s the 38-40 range. 

The one X-factor I see - QB.  None of those teams want a QB.   But someone could trade up.   I kinda hope so since it’s likely for Lock lol.  Which only helps our board at 41. 

The teams I think we’d likely target if we feel we need to move up - SF/SEA.    SF and DEN have a great relationship and often can find common ground.  SF wanting CB they could drop back 5 spots and get more Day 3 ammo, which matters to GM Lynch.    If SEA wants pass rush and aren’t in love with 1 guy hard - moving back is a move their FO often makes.  And it gets past the 38-40 range where IOL seems such a BPA/need perfect combo.  PIT targeted us because CIN was looking hard at Bush at 1.11.   The same idea applies here with us and IOL, if we think there's 1 guy who's head and shoulders better and an impact guy (I do think Risner qualifies, but to be fair, I also thought that of Ford & Taylor, something's got to be up with Taylor to fall so hard).  

Before ppl ask why I cite need in the projections above since I’m a BPA advocate, even at this stage (until we’re somewhere in Rd3 in most draft obvious gaps are no longer usually there) - as per my Day 2-3 post the CB/WR/IOL guys really crowd the top of the big board with not much separation.  And QB is the one spot where need drives reaches.  For those teams need and BPA really fit well for what’s left.

Anyways should be a fun ride Day 2.  I’ll be out watching Avengers until 9 PM ET - hopefully I’ll hear good news on our first 2nd rounder soon after!   What a weekend...

Edited April 26, 2019 by Broncofan