2019 NFL Draft Live GDT - NO SPOILERS DON'T POST PICKS UNTIL TELEVISED

[Broncofan]

52 minutes ago, Counselor said:

What are some thoughts on our AFC West rivals drafts so far?

 

38 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I think that was a pretty incredible way to blow a first round you owned, as far as the Raiders go. Tillery makes a lot of sense for the Chargers, but some of the stuff I hear about his personality and work ethic would make me a little bit weary. 

The Chiefs have seen better days...

I think Tillery's a fantastic pick, TBH.  They couldn't lose either way - either they take a T and get ready to fill in for their aging guys there, or they went with a disruptor who has inside 2-way game (run stopper with inside pressure so valuable and the exact missing piece to their D, they have the LB's now, Bosa/Ingram, and the CB/safeties).

Frankly, the only reason LAC won't be in the Super Bowl are injuries (never predictable) or the lack of true HFA - matters so much.

Oakland...man the irony is that Mayock would have killed a GM for taking Ferrell that early - if nothing else, move back at below-book prices if you really want him.  Jacobs was a decent pick, even if RB is devalued, but the 3rd was another mystifying one.

KC getting Clark helps them a ton this year instead of their 1st - what it hurts is their long-term health as a franchise cap-wise.  But that's a future problem.  Their immediate problem is looking to get a CB & WR now with T-Hill's future very deservedly in doubt.   I think Hill's gone a minimum of 1 year, and the only reason he's not done for sure for good is his elite talent (because young elite talents often get 2nd chances even when they don't deserve it).

KC and LAC are still the class of this division, and we're not close.  We're not there until our QB play is at least OK - Flacco's no sure bet to be that guy, now or long-term.   Today's the day with 3 picks where we see if we can close the gap some more.   But given what OAK could have done to help themselves...the only blessing for Raider fans is they could be in prime position to get Trevor Lawrence when they are finally able to move to Vegas.  

Edited April 26, 2019 by Broncofan

[Broncofan]

Re: ILB, the stock for this next tier is so low, I really don't think we need to reach Day 2.  I know it's seen as a crying need, but I think there are 3-4 coverage ILB's that if we didn't go with 1 of the Devins, we can target for Day 3, including:

1.  BBW  BBK- enough said.  I will emphasize that because of his size and his tool limitations, it's a big reason for his stock to be devalued.  That's an efficiency to exploit IMO.   Don't like the "must-have" approach unless  you're convinced he's elite or so far above everyone else left.  As much as I love BBW BBK in Day 3, I wouldn't say he's elite.   Baller yes.  Elite, no.

2 & 3. Pratt/Cashman - now here, I think both are possible Rd3 candidates.  Again though, given how devalued ILB is by most teams, and the fact such insane value with WR/CB/IOL is there, that often ripples the devalued positions. 

4. Mack Wilson - to be clear, I don't buy the sentiment that ppl thought he was close to the Devin tier.  He's a great coverage ILB.  But he's got major issues vs. the run and shedding blockers.   I'm fine if we get him Day 3.  Day 2, no way.  Ironically, he's the highest on most big boards, which I don't see - I think it's the SEC/'Bama love, which doesn't always translate once you aren't dealing with elite talent, and that's what I see with Wilson - great cover skills....awful in the trenches.  That's a guy you spend a Day 3 pick on, not Day 2.

ILB is pretty thin this year compared to last year.  But the difference in talent vs. the CB/IOL/WR pool, man I dunno about ILB.  Now, Rd3 isn't exactly where there are sure-fire players, but interestingly, the whiff rates from Rd3 especially 1st half aren't a lot different than Rd2.     I'm not going to ever get too upset about a Rd3 pick unless it's a guy who's clearly being overdrafted for insane-tool-no-skills given Elway's history of flaming out there, but I think Elway's learned his lesson - at least 2018 taught him what happens if he doesn't go there that early lol.

 

Edited April 26, 2019 by Broncofan
oops, lol

[broncos67]

Okay, so here's my take on yesterday.

The trade down to 20 is not bad value at all. I know some people wanted more value in terms of a 2020 1st, but the reality is that a team trading up for an ILB is not going to pay the premium of a future 1st. Getting an extra 2nd in a loaded 2nd round and a 3rd next year is great, and I'd argue we still got one of the players we coveted most. I have no issues with this trade.

I love the addition of Fant. Absolutely love it. Denver has been middling around the tight end market for years since Thomas left. Drafting a bunch of mid-round TEs that are good but not great at anything isn't a path to success. In today's NFL, having a weapon like Fant is important, and this offense needs help. Clearly Lock was not a high priority in Round 1 for this team or any other team, so I think that can be put to bed.

In the 2nd round, I'm not opposed to taking Lock. I don't think it's the best move, but I don't hate it either. I would love to see Risner and Deebo just like UK said. That would be such a coup. I could also see some CBs here. I like Julian Love and Byron Murphy a lot. We need guys that can excel in zone.

[Broncofan]

 

 

 

 

3

4 minutes ago, broncos67 said:

Okay, so here's my take on yesterday.

The trade down to 20 is not bad value at all. I know some people wanted more value in terms of a 2020 1st, but the reality is that a team trading up for an ILB is not going to pay the premium of a future 1st. Getting an extra 2nd in a loaded 2nd round and a 3rd next year is great, and I'd argue we still got one of the players we coveted most. I have no issues with this trade.

I love the addition of Fant. Absolutely love it. Denver has been middling around the tight end market for years since Thomas left. Drafting a bunch of mid-round TEs that are good but not great at anything isn't a path to success. In today's NFL, having a weapon like Fant is important, and this offense needs help. Clearly Lock was not a high priority in Round 1 for this team or any other team, so I think that can be put to bed.

In the 2nd round, I'm not opposed to taking Lock. I don't think it's the best move, but I don't hate it either. I would love to see Risner and Deebo just like UK said. That would be such a coup. I could also see some CBs here. I like Julian Love and Byron Murphy a lot. We need guys that can excel in zone.

If Murphy doesn't make it to us (whether it's 2.41 or 2.52), I think the emphasis on zone CB will allow Elway to consider to wait until 3.71.   

Also, it was mentioned we don't have our 4th - but we do have HOU's 4th at 4.125.  To me, that's the sweet spot to hit the ILB guys being discussed.  Maybe a run changes the thinking before 71, so we'll see.

[Scoundrel]

13 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Re: ILB, the stock for this next tier is so low, I really don't think we need to reach Day 2.  I know it's seen as a crying need, but I think there are 3-4 coverage ILB's that if we didn't go with 1 of the Devins, we can target for Day 3, including:

1.  BBW - enough said.  I will emphasize that because of his size and his tool limitations, it's a big reason for his stock to be devalued.  That's an efficiency to exploit IMO.   Don't like the "must-have" approach unless  you're convinced he's elite or so far above everyone else left.  As much as I love BBW in Day 3, I wouldn't say he's elite.   Baller yes.  Elite, no.

2 & 3. Pratt/Cashman - now here, I think both are possible Rd3 candidates.  Again though, given how devalued ILB is by most teams, and the fact such insane value with WR/CB/IOL is there, that often ripples the devalued positions. 

4. Mack Wilson - to be clear, I don't buy the sentiment that ppl thought he was close to the Devin tier.  He's a great coverage ILB.  But he's got major issues vs. the run and shedding blockers.   I'm fine if we get him Day 3.  Day 2, no way.  Ironically, he's the highest on most big boards, which I don't see - I think it's the SEC/'Bama love, which doesn't always translate once you aren't dealing with elite talent, and that's what I see with Wilson - great cover skills....awful in the trenches.  That's a guy you spend a Day 3 pick on, not Day 2.

ILB is pretty thin this year compared to last year.  But the difference in talent vs. the CB/IOL/WR pool, man I dunno about ILB.  Now, Rd3 isn't exactly where there are sure-fire players, but interestingly, the whiff rates from Rd3 especially 1st half aren't a lot different than Rd2.     I'm not going to ever get too upset about a Rd3 pick unless it's a guy who's clearly being overdrafted for insane-tool-no-skills given Elway's history of flaming out there, but I think Elway's learned his lesson - at least 2018 taught him what happens if he doesn't go there that early lol.

 

Someone’s been watching too many adult movies 

[Scoundrel]

With the corners slipping I’d rather wait till 71.

Greedy, Murphy, Layne, Ya-Sin, Oruwariye, JoeJuan, David Long, Mullen, Love, Bunting, Lonnie, Isaiah Johnson

So many left 

[anewdawn]

Well I wasn't really a fan of the trade back but I didn't mind the Fant pick at all.  I was so disgusted when we resigned Manureman this year because yeah he is crap and we finally added a nice tight end.  As far as Butt goes well lets just hope for his case he is able to play - I feel bad for him.

I know Elway has too much ego but man get in check and try and get Rosen on the cheap.  Who cares if you like him or not as a person -  we need to win games and need a qb in a bad way.  But hey Elway has Flacco and is in win now mode..........lmao!  

Again Fant seems to follow last years model of player drafted.  Good heart, good kid.  Lets at least keep on that track! 

[lomaxgrUK]

37 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Oakland...man the irony is that Mayock would have killed a GM for taking Ferrell that early - if nothing else, move back at below-book prices if you really want him.  Jacobs was a decent pick, even if RB is devalued, but the 3rd was another mystifying one.

Lindsay Rhodes made an excellent point on this, and it was a point with regards to the draft in general.

If Mayock was working for NFLN still, and he was pumping Ferrell non-stop and had him ranked in his top 5, people would be ok with him being selected where he was I bet. But, because other draft experts weren't, he is being panned.

I get predicting how good a player will turn out is what makes this process fun (and lead to this forum being created) but I am not going to write this kid off. There's been enough top 5 busts in my time watching the NFL to know that if a top 5 player turns out how the average NFL fan expects a 20th overall pick to turn out, it will go down as a good pick.

I only watched the National Championship and I loved his length and strength on the edge, for what it is worth.

Edited April 26, 2019 by lomaxgrUK

[broncosfan07]

Ferrell is a good player, I think it’s the value that kills it since they could’ve possibly had him later and he still live up to his potential and added a top 5 player.

Doesn’t sound likely that Murphy drops to our pick so hopefully Risner does.

[Broncofan]

17 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Someone’s been watching too many adult movies 

Def not my jam lol.  But well played either way sir.

[Broncofan]

8 minutes ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Lindsay Rhodes made an excellent point on this, and it was a point with regards to the draft in general.

If Mayock was working for NFLN still, and he was pumping Ferrell non-stop and had him ranked in his top 5, people would be ok with him being selected where he was I bet. But, because other draft experts weren't, he is being panned.

I get predicting how good a player will turn out is what makes this process fun (and lead to this forum being created) but I am not going to write this kid off. There's been enough top 5 busts in my time watching the NFL to know that if a top 5 player turns out how the average NFL fan expects a 20th overall pick to turn out, it will go down as a good pick.

I only watched the National Championship and I loved his length and strength on the edge, for what it is worth.

I totally hear you - but part of drafting for value is knowing the board, especially the top 10.  If you really want Ferrell and and know that no one else wants him there, and especially knowing that teams were trying to trade up for guys like Oliver/Devins, then as long as the move back isn't risky, it's worth exploring.   Maybe they did - but then the whole part about being shorthanded with all the scouts home comes into play.

I don't criticize Mayock for valuing Ferrell so highly by itself, nor do I criticize his choice to send the scouts home (if he's not keeping them, he was worried about secuity of info, I get that) - but his choice of sending everyone home but him and Gruden for decisions made it likely they couldn't explore a lot of options with as much help around either.  It's just easy to see that year 1 actual drafting in a war room may have been very different than mocking it from the sideline.  To take Ferrell at 1.4 screams this IMO.  

[jsthomp2007]

20 minutes ago, Counselor said:

With the corners slipping I’d rather wait till 71.

Greedy, Murphy, Layne, Ya-Sin, Oruwariye, JoeJuan, David Long, Mullen, Love, Bunting, Lonnie, Isaiah Johnson

So many left 

I like Ya-Sin, Love, Linnie and Isaiah out of the bunch.  

[Broncofan]

BTW to circle back on the Deebo love - SF fans have pointed out that Shanny spent a ton of time with Deebo during the Senior Bowl playing at the position they need (Z).    Looks like my hope of Deebo Rd3 given the obvious connection is way too optimistic.  Damn.   Part of what makes him so appealing is that his skill set matches better with what Sanders gives us, than any other WR, but he was also being slept on a LOT more than the Metcalf/Brown/Butler/Campbell types.  Will be fascinating to see where Deebo lands pick-wise.

[broncofan48]

36 minutes ago, Counselor said:

Someone’s been watching too many adult movies 

😂😂😂

[Broncofan]

14 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

😂😂😂

Yeah, I earned that one.  

Back to the big board - I completely forgot that T Greg Little is still available.  Man, it's hard to see us passing on IOL barring some insane IOL run - and by the way the 33-40 picks line up, it seems far more likely a WR/CB run is coming, with some OL sprinkled in.