Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Counselor

ENTER AT YOUR OWN RISK: 2019 NFL Draft- Spoiler Edition

Recommended Posts

25 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Unlike other TE prospects who go early, Hockenson offers a complete game in where it matters for year 1 - blocking and assignments.  Iowa's system is so NFL-friendly for its TE's, it's why their success rate is so high.   He also offers a Witten-like skill set as a receiver (I don't believe Gronk comps until I see it in the NFL).     That's just a crazy combo, with a very high floor.

I usually stay away from TE round 1, OJ Howard was the last guy I'd have been fine with (but that was when we were at 1.20 too, so different tier of options as alternatives).  I do think Hockenson is that good.  There's always risk, though.  In a lot of ways, the thing that I like the most is that unlike the win-now pick, Hockenson is a pick whose ceiling expands exponentially in year 2-3.  

thanks for the info bro. how do you feel about the two linebackers - or direct me to where you have posted about it? And do you like Haskins but not Lock? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If Jags can trade Telvin Smith they could be in play for White or Bush at 7

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Worst Case Scenario

1. Cards- Kyler Murray

2. Niners- Nick Bosa

3. Jets- Quinnen Williams

4. Raiders- Josh Allen

5. Bucs- Devin White

6. Giants- Ed Oliver

7. Skins (Trade up for) Dwayne Haskins 

8. Lions or Falcons- Devin Bush

9. Bills- TJ Hockenson

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Lions are a real possibility to take Bush. They moved Davis to WLB and have been using him as a blitzer off the edge more and could use the home state Bush at Mike.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, champ11 said:

thanks for the info bro. how do you feel about the two linebackers - or direct me to where you have posted about it? And do you like Haskins but not Lock? 

I've been AFK until yesterday, so there aren't any posts besides today - but as I spoke about in this and the "Would You Be Happy thread" - Bush and White are pretty much neck and neck.  I thought White must be better in speed/ceiling to be clearly mocked ahead of Bush each time, but I defer to @broncos_fan _from _uk & @Counselor who say it's because of his intangible leadership qualities.  Bush is a better read-recognition guy, while White isn't bad there, he wins more by his ability to take on and destroy RB's and separate from OL.  To me, that makes it so hard to tell the difference, I couldn't figure out why White is always being mocked ahead of Bush, but intangibles do matter.  You don't get to be a top 10 draft prospect at ILB without being a complete package, though, so both fit the bill there.  I couldn't figure out why White was always ahead of Bush each time, but I can see the reasoning.

Re: QB, I still worry about Haskins because it's only 1 year, and there's always more risk - but he at least shows all the pocket passer traits you want to see in a successful NFL starter.   Lock's problems are huge, and it's only his projection that puts him in Rd1 talk - and that's a freaking scary prop.   I've said it before, I'll say it again - you give me Lock's tools and Jones' processing skills and heart/determination, slam dunk Rd1 guy.   But both guys with their skills/tools, just can't endorse a Rd1 pick.   Jones' physical limits are really worrisome (albeit I suspect at worst he's a career backup) - but Lock's skill weaknesses are terrifying (terrible against pressure, misses guys for no reason, awful footwork, and worst, bad vs. good D's and a flat learning curve when he should have progressed the last season after 3+ years as a starter).  Now, you give him Andy Reid or Doug Pederson, I'd be more hopeful - but with us, even with Scangarelli as a new guy?  Can't feel good at all, esp since we'd likely be again committing 3 offseasons to him.

Hope that helps...

 

Edited by Broncofan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

See above, no problem if we went Oliver.  Like I said, I think the risk is that Elway passes over him for present need.  Haskins, White/Bush & Hockenson all fit the BPA mold, who just happen to fit great needs for us.   Oliver is by BPA right there, but the present-day need isn't as clear - which is very scary. 

For all of Elways faults as a drafter he has rarely reached for need in the 1st (bolles and Paxton are the only 2 that comes to mind) He has shown hes willing to take players at a position of relative strength if they are the BPA (Roby, Ray, even Chubb last year)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

For all of Elways faults as a drafter he has rarely reached for need in the 1st (bolles and Paxton are the only 2 that comes to mind) He has shown hes willing to take players at a position of relative strength if they are the BPA (Roby, Ray, even Chubb last year)

I'd have added in Sly into the need equation too.  Which fits with the 2014-2017 window where he started picking more like he was 1 player away and went need-foremost instead of best talent Rd1. 

I don't begrudge him for whiffing on Ray and Roby, for a while Roby looked like he'd fulfill the promise, those were just talent evaluations that didn't work out. 

What worries me is that last year, Elway explicitly said the team needed help everywhere.  This year, he's talking about win-now...thus the concern he'd pass on Oliver.  I am happy to see he made Klis' list, that means he's still in play, though.   

Edited by Broncofan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Broncofan said:

I'd have added in Sly into the need equation too.  Which fits with the 2014-2017 window where he started picking more like he was 1 player away and went need-foremost instead of best talent. 

I don't begrudge him for whiffing on Ray and Roby, for a while Roby looked like he'd fulfill the promise, those were just talent evaluations that didn't work out. 

What worries me is that last year, Elway explicitly said the team needed help everywhere.  This year, he's talking about win-now.   

Could be wrong but I remember this forum celebrating Sly as a steal that year.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

I'd have added in Sly into the need equation too.  Which fits with the 2014-2017 window where he started picking more like he was 1 player away and went need-foremost instead of best talent. 

I don't begrudge him for whiffing on Ray and Roby, for a while Roby looked like he'd fulfill the promise, those were just talent evaluations that didn't work out. 

What worries me is that last year, Elway explicitly said the team needed help everywhere.  This year, he's talking about win-now...thus the concern he'd pass on Oliver.  I am happy to see he made Klis' list, that means he's still in play, though.   

I don’t see Oliver getting to 10

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, broncofan48 said:

Could be wrong but I remember this forum celebrating Sly as a steal that year.  

Let's face it, back then we are on a high like no tomorrow.  It seemed like Elway could do no wrong - he was hitting UDFA/trades/FA's so much it didn't matter we were whiffing badly on Day 2 after 2011-12.      But it was a pure need-based pick.  3-4 0 techs have to be incredibly special to earn even Day 2 consideration, let alone Day 1 - Vita Vea being a freak specimen who had pass disruption chops, which is why he got the love (and same for Dexter Lawrence this year).  But it was our obvious hole back then.

Edited by Broncofan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Counselor said:

I don’t see Oliver getting to 10

Yeah, if I were to guess, Bush is the most likely to be there at 10, Oliver gone before him.  But it only takes 1 team to love Bush earlier and then we get weird cascading choices.   I think we can safely put Murray, Bosa, Williams, Allen, 1 Devin and one T (JAX if they don't go Hock goes OL IMO, being a contender in their eyes).   That's 6.  Just a matter of who the other 3 are.

The issue is that Bush/White, Hockenson and Haskins all fill a very clear need, and just so happen to be at the top of the BPA board at 1.10 - so there's no conflict in the goals for Elway.  Again, I'd be thrilled with Oliver.  It just presents a potential binary choice for Elway, where the others don't.

Edited by Broncofan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Counselor said:

I don’t see Oliver getting to 10

I dont either - but could see it in the rare chance that Both Devin's, Haskins, and Hockenson are gone.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, Broncofan said:

Yeah, if I were to guess, Bush is the most likely to be there at 10, Oliver gone before him.  But it only takes 1 team to love Bush earlier and then we get weird cascading choices.   I think we can safely put Murray, Bosa, Williams, Allen, 1 Devin and one T (JAX if they don't go Hock goes OL IMO, being a contender in their eyes).   That's 6.  Just a matter of who the other 3 are.

The issue is that Bush/White, Hockenson and Haskins all fill a very clear need, and just so happen to be at the top of the BPA board at 1.10 - so there's no conflict in the goals for Elway.  Again, I'd be thrilled with Oliver.  It just presents a potential binary choice for Elway, where the others don't.

And if Oliver is gone, means Williams is there.  Know we are talking about a tackle, but from a BPA perspective, Can't argue bringing him in and kicking Bolles to Guard.  Also - Top Tackle is the one other position that might have some real trade-bait value.  Agree, Counselor "nightmare" scenario is probably the worst case for us - just don't think it would ultimately end up being "a nightmare".  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, DiehardBronxFan said:

And if Oliver is gone, means Williams is there.  Know we are talking about a tackle, but from a BPA perspective, Can't argue bringing him in and kicking Bolles to Guard.  Also - Top Tackle is the one other position that might have some real trade-bait value.  Agree, Counselor "nightmare" scenario is probably the worst case for us - just don't think it would ultimately end up being "a nightmare".  

Well, barring a complete bust pick, nightmare is too strong lol, sure.    I'll make no secret of my view that anyone from Klis' list but Lock and I'm OK with - that's my first priority on "What will you be happy with".  I think both Devins & Hock and Haskins would each have a bigger impact long-term, but it's not a hit vs. whiff prop odds-wise we're talking about (nothing being guaranteed, of course, just odds-wise). 

So I'd much rather have 2 other non-Lock candidates on the board at 1.10 especially at a premium need spot, reduces the chances we go there.  If it's down to Williams & Lock, though...

Edited by Broncofan

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Rumors heating up that a couple of teams are exploring trading ahead of us to get Bush.  Detroit seems to be the main candidate.  Bills and Jags have also expressed interest in a trade.

If indeed we are dead set on one of the Devin's, Haskins, or Hockenson- we may need to move up.  I'd be against that.  But if we DON'T want the QB, and DON'T want Williams - we may well find ourselves either trading up, or trading down....

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  



×