Josh Rosen Where Would He Be Drafted Today & Why Isn't He Worth a First Rounder if Traded?

[ClutchDJ]

Not even looking at his rookie year, I’m not sure what Rosen did better than Kyler in college outside of being 6’3-6’4 & living mostly off his Freshman year. Also, being against the media as well.

 

Ball-placement maybe?

 

I think people are severely underrating how good Kyler is going to be. I wouldn’t be surprised if Rosen is on his 4th team by 2024 & Kyler becomes transcendent. I could be wrong, but yea.

[Tetsujin]

I've seen some expert breakdowns of him that gives me hope.

We just have to add pieces to the OL. Tunsil is a good LT, hopefully Dieter becomes good LG. Kilgore is a passable OC. It's now the RG and RT spots that are really shaky.

[HoboRocket]

On 4/25/2019 at 7:00 PM, jetjuice said:

I'm not wrong though. This thread is about PROSPECTS right? Kyler has a better skill set than Rosen does, period. Which is why he'll be the first pick and will be the very guy replacing Rosen who's value depreciated tremendously from his performance in the little time he;s been in the NFL. What does Rosen have to hang his hat on that Murray doesn't? 

Since this thread is about PROSPECTS, - right? - Rosen had greater arm strength, accuracy, and a tighter spiral than Kyler as a prospect. He also actually won when his team was way super far behind. I don't think Kyler has a single game as impressive as that UCLA vs Texas A&M matchup. Instead, he disappointed against Alabama until late, but ultimately it wasn't enough. Obviously, A&M ain't Bama, but... I mean, it's a fair comp. Rosen also came from a pro style scheme, something that Kyler has zero ability to play in because of - believe it or not - physical limitations. He was considered advanced mentally heading into the draft, as well. Kyler has never been considered a cerebral QB.

[HoboRocket]

And trust me, I'm a QB prospect fan. I love Kyler as a prospect. He's so much fun. I have reasonable concerns about injuries, since he plays a more physically demanding brand of football combined with the fact that he's the smallest QB as far as I can remember (albeit, my memory of watching the NFL live stretches only back to 2007). 

[ClutchDJ]

2 hours ago, HoboRocket said:

Since this thread is about PROSPECTS, - right? - Rosen had greater arm strength, accuracy, and a tighter spiral than Kyler as a prospect. He also actually won when his team was way super far behind. I don't think Kyler has a single game as impressive as that UCLA vs Texas A&M matchup. Instead, he disappointed against Alabama until late, but ultimately it wasn't enough. Obviously, A&M ain't Bama, but... I mean, it's a fair comp. Rosen also came from a pro style scheme, something that Kyler has zero ability to play in because of - believe it or not - physical limitations. He was considered advanced mentally heading into the draft, as well. Kyler has never been considered a cerebral QB.

I’m absolutely flabbergasted at this. In what universe does Rosen have better accuracy & definitely arm strength than Kyler? What does it matter that he didn’t come from a pro-style scheme? Like who really cares in 2019? The reigning MVP didn’t come from a pro-style scheme. The guy that just had 1 one of the best rookie QB seasons ever didn’t come from a pro-style scheme.

 

Kyler’s best games against both top ranked West Virginia & Texas(rematch) are absolutely better than Rosen’s against a trainwreck Texas A&M team. Just like how people overthought Aaron Donald & now Ed Oliver cause of height, they’ll do the same with Kyler Murray as well.

 

Rosen’s reputation super-cedes his actual play. It has been since his Sophomore year of college. I can’t wait to see the excuses he’ll receive once he most likely bombs in Miami as well.

[HoboRocket]

26 minutes ago, ClutchDJ said:

I’m absolutely flabbergasted at this. In what universe does Rosen have better accuracy & definitely arm strength than Kyler? What does it matter that he didn’t come from a pro-style scheme? Like who really cares in 2019? The reigning MVP didn’t come from a pro-style scheme. The guy that just had 1 one of the best rookie QB seasons ever didn’t come from a pro-style scheme.

 

Kyler’s best games against both top ranked West Virginia & Texas(rematch) are absolutely better than Rosen’s against a trainwreck Texas A&M team. Just like how people overthought Aaron Donald & now Ed Oliver cause of height, they’ll do the same with Kyler Murray as well.

 

Rosen’s reputation super-cedes his actual play. It has been since his Sophomore year of college. I can’t wait to see the excuses he’ll receive once he most likely bombs in Miami as well.

Eh. As a prospect, Rosen's arm talent was better than Goff's, which is the saving grace for both of them. He throws hard, fast, and accurately. Or at least he did. In college. Don't get me wrong, but the question was what Rosen had over Kyler as a prospect, and as a prospect, Rosen's range with the football is crazy - when he has space. With a clean pocket, the spiral comes out so tight that it's like it accelerates itself, rather than getting its power from him. However, there are caveats attached.

WHEN HE HAS A CLEAN POCKET - he doesn't create for himself the way Murray does. 

ARM STRENGTH IN THE POCKET - His throwing motion generates most of its power from a mostly stationary base, meaning it just incorporates the single step up. Most of his arm strength and range comes from the efficiency of the throwing motion, which is darn near perfect. However, his arm strength is really lackluster on the move and when it comes out line a duck, it tends to float. 

PRO STYLE OFFENSE - he's not really a fit for the typical spread and college-style offenses. Those offenses have just so happened to be the most effective NFL offenses over the past five years. 

 

Murray is a better fit for better offenses, while Rosen is a better fit for what more teams are using, though his offensive style is going extinct. Murray can create on his own, while Rosen can't. Murray has crazy good mobility, and Rosen doesn't. Murray can throw on the run and generates power organically, where its manufactured with Rosen. 

Still, anyone who did excessive scouting last year should agree that Rosen was an almost perfect in-the-pocket QB prospect from an arm talent perspective. And I still saw the arm talent this year, he still displayed superior accuracy and arm strength at times in a bad situation. His biggest problem was being a deer in the headlights. He was making the right reads, but he was almost always late, which is a death sentence.

[Activated10]

On 5/17/2019 at 2:26 PM, HoboRocket said:

Eh. As a prospect, Rosen's arm talent was better than Goff's, which is the saving grace for both of them. He throws hard, fast, and accurately. Or at least he did. In college. Don't get me wrong, but the question was what Rosen had over Kyler as a prospect, and as a prospect, Rosen's range with the football is crazy - when he has space. With a clean pocket, the spiral comes out so tight that it's like it accelerates itself, rather than getting its power from him. However, there are caveats attached.

WHEN HE HAS A CLEAN POCKET - he doesn't create for himself the way Murray does. 

ARM STRENGTH IN THE POCKET - His throwing motion generates most of its power from a mostly stationary base, meaning it just incorporates the single step up. Most of his arm strength and range comes from the efficiency of the throwing motion, which is darn near perfect. However, his arm strength is really lackluster on the move and when it comes out line a duck, it tends to float. 

PRO STYLE OFFENSE - he's not really a fit for the typical spread and college-style offenses. Those offenses have just so happened to be the most effective NFL offenses over the past five years. 

 

Murray is a better fit for better offenses, while Rosen is a better fit for what more teams are using, though his offensive style is going extinct. Murray can create on his own, while Rosen can't. Murray has crazy good mobility, and Rosen doesn't. Murray can throw on the run and generates power organically, where its manufactured with Rosen. 

Still, anyone who did excessive scouting last year should agree that Rosen was an almost perfect in-the-pocket QB prospect from an arm talent perspective. And I still saw the arm talent this year, he still displayed superior accuracy and arm strength at times in a bad situation. His biggest problem was being a deer in the headlights. He was making the right reads, but he was almost always late, which is a death sentence.

So Rosen should be great fit for Caldwell/Oshea offense since both of those guys coached Peyton and Brady and they ran more pro style offenses.

[BleedTheClock]

I think Josh Rosen is better than Daniel Jones for sure. Kyler Murray too. Hell, I think he might be the #1 QB based on college tape and talent. I think he becomes a Matt Ryan type of passer in the NFL actually. And yeah, he's kind of a toolbag from some accounts. I think that stigma might be why he went to Miami for so low. Plus Arizona had surprisingly little leverage because they were known to be taking a QB at #1 overall. They pretty much had to trade him to the highest bidder.

Edited May 20, 2019 by BleedTheClock

[Activated10]

14 hours ago, BleedTheClock said:

I think Josh Rosen is better than Daniel Jones for sure. Kyler Murray too. Hell, I think he might be the #1 QB based on college tape and talent. I think he becomes a Matt Ryan type of passer in the NFL actually. And yeah, he's kind of a toolbag from some accounts. I think that stigma might be why he went to Miami for so low. Plus Arizona had surprisingly little leverage because they were known to be taking a QB at #1 overall. They pretty much had to trade him to the highest bidder.

I think him being a toolbag is all media driven. Teammates from Cardinals all said they loved Josh Rosen and wish him luck. Dude was at Fitzgerald softball charity game when he knew he was going to be traded. I think Josh Rosen, similar to Aaron Rodgers just has a cocky/I'm starter than you attitude that rub people the wrong way. But in general are still great teammates.

[BleedTheClock]

34 minutes ago, Activated10 said:

I think him being a toolbag is all media driven. Teammates from Cardinals all said they loved Josh Rosen and wish him luck. Dude was at Fitzgerald softball charity game when he knew he was going to be traded. I think Josh Rosen, similar to Aaron Rodgers just has a cocky/I'm starter than you attitude that rub people the wrong way. But in general are still great teammates.

I have this hunch as well.

[Awsi Dooger]

In a fresh world I think Rosen would have been the second quarterback off the board behind Murray. 

Murray had the 11.2 yards per attempt. I realize this is more of a subjective board than stats or analytics, but sometimes the numbers are so overpowering that they point the way and all the traditional scouting criteria fall to the wayside. Baker Mayfield, Kyler Murray and Tua Tagovailoa all had YPA above 11 in 2017 or 2018. Those are surreal numbers. They will be the first pick in three consecutive drafts. Anyone denying it or trying to find reasons it won't happen is mostly wasting his time. Arizona would have been moronic to bypass Murray. It was never going to happen. An upward move at quarterback is worth exponentially more than patching this position or that position.

Rosen was a 5 star recruit, similar to Murray. That gets lost after a poor NFL season but it is still valued during the scouting process. As a Dolphins fan I am thrilled that we now are pursuing 5 star guys. Miami has acquired more 5 star recruits in the first round of the past 4 drafts than in the prior dozen years combined. Ted Ginn was 5 star from the 2007 draft. After that you have to fo all the way to Tunsil as 5 star in 2016. Minkah was 5 star in 2018. Wilkins is 5 star in 2019. Miami traded for 5 star Rosen. 

Then we have the brilliant departure of 2017...to Charles Harris and his 2 stars. Ignore how someone has always compared to his peers at your own peril. The Dolphins have somehow kidded themselves with 3 star Ryan Tannehill and 3 star Devante Parker, etc. If you have the physical tools but have never been elite among your own age group, then why pretend something is going to magically change? Something is missing. When the Dolphins were in their heyday the skill position guys had been ultra elite throughout their lives, guys like Griese, Warfield and Csonka.

Josh Rosen didn't have the opportunity to go head to head with Daniel Jones or Dwayne Haskins or Drew Lock, etc. at the combine or in chalkboard sessions, etc. Instead he was in limbo in Arizona. That head to head direct comparison aspect is the foundation of every draft. Rosen was shut out this time, and that's why it it ridiculous to pretend he was part of the draft. Veterans are never valued lower than during the draft itself. These are the handful of precious days to acquire new toys. Anyone you want. The entire staff has devoted and debated all year. It feels like a letdown if you have to surrender a pick and a chance at a new fresh toy, to acquire some specific leftover from another team.

Then as soon as the draft ends and now the next one is 12 months away, all of a sudden those veterans go up in price again. That's why it's preposterous to claim Rosen would have been available cheaper later. Just the opposite. Miami purchased at the exact point to maximize value.

Notice that nobody was trading up for first round quarterbacks this year. That is how lowly they were viewed, and it is a stark departure from recent seasons. Prior to 2019, the last first round quarterback outside the top 3 picks who fell to a team without a trade up involved was E.J. Manuel to the Bills. This time Haskins fell without a trade, and obviously nobody was going to trade up above the Giants for the legendary Daniel Jones.

Since Arizona traded up to #10 just one year ago to get Rosen, that is a decent indication of how things would have played out if Rosen were clean as incoming rookie in this crop. 

Now he just has to do it. I saw that thread here last year, something like, "Why Josh Rosen isn't the quarterback you think he is." It was very well done. focusing on 3rd down numbers if I remember correctly. I didn't want Rosen at #11 to Miami last year but at #62 this time there would have been no hesitation whatsoever. The Dolphins are prioritizing value for the first time in decades.

[BleedTheClock]

On 5/17/2019 at 12:43 PM, ClutchDJ said:

In what universe does Rosen have better accuracy & definitely arm strength than Kyler

This universe. Murray can probably throw it further, but he doesn't have nearly the consistent zip on the ball that Rosen does. Rosen was very accurate in college. Especially in the short and intermediate zones. Both of those categories are close if we're comparing them, but I would probably give the nod to Rosen by a hair. It's not a very discernible difference, but I'm going Rosen as well.

 

People like to forget how good of a prospect Rosen is/was.