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Techbert

2019 Kamikura Kamikazes - 4th Season

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Posted (edited)

DRAFT SUMMARY:

1-2 Nick Bosa de OSU SF 1-2 (0)
2-34 Rock Ya-Sin cb Tem Ind 2-34 (0)
2-46 Greedy Williams cb LSU Cle 2-46 (0)
3-67 Chauncey Gardner-Williams s UF NO 4-105 (28)
3-77 Chase Winovich de Mich NE 3-77 (0)
4-129 Jarrett Stidham qb Aub NE 4-133 (4)
4-135 Deionte Thompson s Ala Az 5-139 (4)
6-179 Emeke Ehbule lb Hou LAC 6-200 (21)
7-221 Jimmy Moreland cb JMU Wash 7-229 (8)

The numbers in parentheses are the draft selection above where they were picked IRL, and they are ridiculously close. Bosa is explained, cuz it was an obvious pick. Greedy was the results of some draft trade shenanigans that I justify because IRL there are draft day shenanigans. Rock and Chase were just "luck," as I did not know they were selected with the same pick until after I had posted. The others were amazingly close, even CGW and Ehbule.

I typically have a player or two in rounds 2-4 that drops. I used to panic about it, but then I noticed that often the dropping player did well for me. Grady Jarrett with the Bull is an example. I picked him in the 2nd round, which was reasonable to me at the time, and he somehow dropped to the 5th round. Was I somehow a terrible drafter, as Grady dropped like a rock? No. He typically gets redrafted as a 1st rounder in those hindsight articles. So I don't care about the gaps. Naturally, as soon as I stop caring the gaps went away. Rounds 5-7 are very much personal preference picks, and one team's key picks is another team's udfa. So I don't care about that. One year I pick Quentin Spain, who is IRL udfa but a league starter. Another year I pick a 5th rounder that does not even sniff a roster. No biggie.

 

 

Edited by Techbert

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Posted (edited)

My draft strategy.

I really did have one, although it may not have been obvious.

I lost a starting cb, s, and lb. Further, I didn't (and don't) think Daryl Worley is the type of player Mayock wants on the Raiders. I like Jalen Mills as a red zone corner but he can be beaten long. I drafted Josh Jackson last year, but am not sold on him. Mackensie Alexander is going to be a good slot guy this year but I may lose him next year. Crawley is the type of corner who is best when he doesn't have to play. So I had some real weaknesses on the back half. I was also thin at linebacker. 

I liked a lot of this draft's db's and didn't like many of the lb's.

Round 1. Bosa, of course. That gives me two beasts at DE, with Bosa and Myles Garrett. One is naturally RDE and the other is naturally strong side DE. Lots of sacks and pressure. Good setting the edge on the run. Beasts. Envy me. I had good DT's and some depth. Everything would get funneled inside, right to Fred Warner and Jamal Adams. So far, so good.

But what kind of corners do I want, with Garrett and Bosa spreading terror? Easy answer. With the opposing quarterbacks throwing quick-hitters, I want press corners. So I need to find press corners. Any press corners that could play the outside? Why, yes. Let's see who slides to pick 34.  Someone might, and if I got one I would declare victory. My top two corners were Rock and Greedy, with Rock having the much higher floor. There they were! So I picked them both. Then I got cute with a trade offer and almost lost Greedy. That would not have broken my heart cuz I have serious questions about the boy but I also wanted what he brought to the table. With the two corners secured, I went about replacing my defensive team captain, Tyrann Mathieu. I was going to take the easy way out with Nasir Adderley. Swiss army knife safety like Jamal Adams, so I could do whatever I wanted with them. Lots of disguise. No bad mismatches. Only trouble was Adderley, cousin or something of legend Herb Adderley, and I like bloodlines, went 7 picks ahead of me. Oh, well.

He was the last complete safety on my list. (Also my first, but whatever.) The other safeties I did not think were the full package. So I would have to have multiple safeties to do multiple things on defense, or an opposing offense could find mismatches to exploit. Also, I was looking at having to play crap linebackers. Did I want to start Kamu Grugier-Hill and Jordan Evans, with waiver wire depth?

Ahah! A solution. It is called Sub Packages! The Chargers discovered they could beat you with zero or one linebackers for most of the game. If they can do it, why can't I. They had a lot of defensive backs and they were good and they could do different things. I had Jamal Adams, one or two others, and whatever rookies I could find. Press corners? Acquired.. I needed safeties.

Who dropped into my lap but CGW. Unlike a lot on here, I thought it was reasonable for him to slide, but I do think he can play the muscle slot, and you absolutely need that if you are going to rely on dime packages. Offenses for years have split out the tight ends or used jumbo wideouts. Muscle slots are the answer. They also play the run and blitz. Not quite the same as a box safety, but don't worry about it. Adams can play it, but I did not want to tie him down with all the other things he can do. Mills probably could, and I would have to teach him to play it, moving him inside. CGW is born for it, and spent his last year in college doing it.

I plan on starting Tashaun Gipson at fee safety, but I also want to move him around and I need to groom someone to replace him. Why not Deionte Thompson? He was dropping, but he is a natural high safety. Turned out Deionte has some degenerative stuff going on, but there is a good chance he can have a good career anyway. He just has to stay healthy, which is a bit of a challenge for him. Still, I'd throw a late 4th at a chance to groom him, and did.  That just leaves the quick slot. Oh, look! Jimmy Moreland. Very quick, and a turnover machine when he is not getting kicked off the team for being a petty thief. I am betting he will continue with the one and has outgrown the other, and what else do you do with a 7th?

In-between, I added defensive end depth, which is nice, and I got my sleeper quarterback, which I needed. Everyone has a sleeper quarterback. Stidham was mine, and apparently Belichick's too. I did pick one linebacker, who ironically was selected by the Chargers, my model team for de-emphasizing linebackers.

For better or worse, this is how Evil Techbert rolls.

Edited by Techbert

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UDFA

I have a more sophisticated methodology than Jrry32 on signing UDFA. It is based on targeting players and having a higher chance on some than others. Basically, I give myself an 80% chance of signing two players not in the Top 32 of Zierlein's  (NFL.Com) undrafted players, 50% chance of signing two players in the Top 32. Then I make a list of players of (90-x)*2 in length, where x = players counting against the 90 man roster after the draft but before any UDFA are signed, and I have a 33% chance of getting each of them. If I have any remaining slots, I give them to people who only have camp invites, and it is hard sometimes to tell which are which.

(This is different from the first two years of an expansion team, where it is easy to convince players to come, as there is a good chance of making the roster of an expansion team.)

Alternately, I give up all the targeting of any top UDFA to mirror one team at one position. The Chicago Bears, and I, cut Cody Parkey and are throwing our time at replacing him. The Bears signed 4 UDFA and gave invites to 4 more. So did I. I expect them to release and sign out the yang until they like someone. Rather than try to keep up with that, I am just saying I sign...

Any UDFA or FA kicker the Bears sign

Also,

Albert Higgins dt Clem Houy  
Darius West s Ky NYG

That's it. So no premium WR for the Kamis. No one I really liked.

 

 

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Oh, look. I had pk Eddy Piniero coming off IR, so did not have to trade for him. He's with Chicago now.

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