snackattack Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 53 minutes ago, deathstar said: 1. Can you point me somewhere that verifies this? 2. What is the definition of this trait? At what point do you say someone can "turn the corner" or can't? 3. You don't believe it's any of the other number of reasons that have been written about as to why he's overvalued? Or that you believe the only reason he didn't produce sacks at Michigan was because he couldn't "bend"? 1. Its common sense. I respectfully decline to argue things of this nature 2. I saw a segment on a primetime football game one time where they measured the angle that pass rushers’ body leaned when turning the corner. Standing straight up was 90 degrees, so the more you could decrease that angle without falling down is your bend. Havent seen any thresholds where a particular angle is considered elite or anything, but its pretty obvious when a player cant take an aggressive angle without falling down. Like many things in football, you know it when you see it. 3. Im not making any sort of comment on why gary didnt have a ton of sacks. But again, i think its common sense to think that if he could bend, he would have won more on the edge Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, deathstar said: 1. I don't believe sacks indicate pass rush ability. 13 or more plays per year those guys tackled the quarterback before he passed - but did they win more than players like Za'Darius Smith and his 22nd percentile 3 cone? It's likely due to the unavailability of pressure stats and I understand the limitations there. Another thing - Gary's 3 cone put him in the 66th percentile, is that a huge difference from the 70th? Enough to say he can't turn the corner? 2. Is Gary's 92nd percentile 10 yard split enough to make up for his merely above average 3 cone? 3. It doesn't have to be one thing, I was addressing snack's assertion that it was the reason why he wasn't a top 5 pick. I agree with your ideal position statement and that he struggled to put up sacks, but I'm not sure the reason is because of his bend. 1. You're going to argue the correlation between sacks and pass rush ability?? Obviously it's not a 1:1 correlation, but it's a no-**** common sense conclusion that the best pass rushers get the most sacks 2. The 3-cone is affected by the 10-split. If you're fast out of the blocks, your 3-cone is going to be faster. That he has a really good 10-split and still has a bad 3-cone isn't really a positive indicator. 3. What are his red flags other than that he's stiff as a board? He checks the rest of the boxes. It's certainly not his explosion that's lacking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: 1. You're going to argue the correlation between sacks and pass rush ability?? Obviously it's not a 1:1 correlation, but it's a no-**** common sense conclusion that the best pass rushers get the most sacks 2. The 3-cone is affected by the 10-split. If you're fast out of the blocks, your 3-cone is going to be faster. That he has a really good 10-split and still has a bad 3-cone isn't really a positive indicator. 3. What are his red flags other than that he's stiff as a board? He checks the rest of the boxes. It's certainly not his explosion that's lacking. It really isn't. Fackrell is a great example. He doesn't have a bad 3 cone, again it's in the 66th percentile according to mockdraftable. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 19 minutes ago, snackattack said: 1. Its common sense. I respectfully decline to argue things of this nature Oh ok. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 Just now, deathstar said: It really isn't. Fackrell is a great example. He doesn't have a bad 3 cone, again it's in the 66th percentile according to mockdraftable. What the hell are you even trying to argue here? This is all based on predictive patterning. Nothing is going to be 100% right 100% of the time. If you're only going to look at things on a surface level, that's fine, but don't expect to understand it. Playing, find the outlier isn't productive. Fackrell is a clear outlier. His sack/pressure ratio was unsustainably high last year. Nobody should be expecting him to repeat those results this year. Are you seriously going to sit here and argue that Danielle Hunter (6.95), Von Miller (6.7), Myles Garrett(Didn't do it), Frank Clark (7.08), Dee Ford (7.07), Chandler Jones(7.07), Ryan Kerrigan(7.18), TJ Watt (6.79) are not some of the best pass rushers in the league? Obviously the 3-cone isn't the only thing that's being evaluated when you look at these players, but it is a tool and is somewhat predictive. None of these guys are as bad at that particular drill (the drill most indicative of pass rushing success) as Rashan Gary. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snackattack Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 @deathstar lets be clear on what it is you’re arguing. You made a general statement that being able to turn the corner is overvalued, but i think you are trying to specifically defend gary as a player despite his lack of bend, right? If thats the case then i agree with you based on who gary is playing for and how i think he will be used. I believe pettine will get the most out of the skills that gary has and he will be a very good player despite not having great bend. And i think he will have production. Im saying that, even though i think gary will be good, he would be a truly elite prospect if he could bend and therefore i dont think the ability to bend is overvalued. His value would be much higher if he could bend Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: What the hell are you even trying to argue here? This is all based on predictive patterning. Nothing is going to be 100% right 100% of the time. If you're only going to look at things on a surface level, that's fine, but don't expect to understand it. Playing, find the outlier isn't productive. Fackrell is a clear outlier. His sack/pressure ratio was unsustainably high last year. Nobody should be expecting him to repeat those results this year. Are you seriously going to sit here and argue that Danielle Hunter (6.95), Von Miller (6.7), Myles Garrett(Didn't do it), Frank Clark (7.08), Dee Ford (7.07), Chandler Jones(7.07), Ryan Kerrigan(7.18), TJ Watt (6.79) are not some of the best pass rushers in the league? Obviously the 3-cone isn't the only thing that's being evaluated when you look at these players, but it is a tool and is somewhat predictive. None of these guys are as bad at that particular drill (the drill most indicative of pass rushing success) as Rashan Gary. I'm not going to argue that, I just want to explore things a bit more in depth here. Not sure how I'm just looking at things at the surface level when you're the one saying 13+ sacks = good pass rushing all the time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, snackattack said: @deathstar lets be clear on what it is you’re arguing. You made a general statement that being able to turn the corner is overvalued, but i think you are trying to specifically defend gary as a player despite his lack of bend, right? If thats the case then i agree with you based on who gary is playing for and how i think he will be used. I believe pettine will get the most out of the skills that gary has and he will be a very good player despite not having great bend. And i think he will have production. Im saying that, even though i think gary will be good, he would be a truly elite prospect if he could bend and therefore i dont think the ability to bend is overvalued. His value would be much higher if he could bend I'm not defending Gary at all, but I do believe that general terms gets thrown around in discussions around him called "turn the corner" or "bend". What those terms mean people have a general idea about and give a lot of value, but how valuable is this "turn the corner" or "bend" and what exactly does it mean? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snackattack Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, deathstar said: I'm not defending Gary at all, but I do believe that general terms gets thrown around in discussions around him called "turn the corner" or "bend". What those terms mean people have a general idea about and give a lot of value, but how valuable is this "turn the corner" or "bend" and what exactly does it mean? Best thing ive got for you is the thing i said about flattening the angle as you change your trajectory from going up the field to going towards the qb. If you dont understand how that skill significantly helps your pass rush game then i cant help you. Obviously it isnt the only skill to be valued. Ferrell doesnt have great bend either, but he displayed better getoff and pass rush moves than gary which is perhaps why he was taken higher. On the flip side if you had a guy who couldnt do anything well except turn the corner, then he wouldnt be as effective as a pass rusher Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 9 minutes ago, deathstar said: I'm not going to argue that, I just want to explore things a bit more in depth here. Not sure how I'm just looking at things at the surface level when you're the one saying 13+ sacks = good pass rushing all the time. How many NFL players have had 13 sack seasons that you would consider to not be a good pass rusher, at least at some point in their career? We agree that looking at a player's sacks in a previous season is the best way to predict their seasons for the next year. We agree that the best pass rushers have some kind of bend and ability to win with speed. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, snackattack said: Best thing ive got for you is the thing i said about flattening the angle as you change your trajectory from going up the field to going towards the qb. If you dont understand how that skill significantly helps your pass rush game then i cant help you. Obviously it isnt the only skill to be valued. Ferrell doesnt have great bend either, but he displayed better getoff and pass rush moves than gary which is perhaps why he was taken higher. On the flip side if you had a guy who couldnt do anything well except turn the corner, then he wouldnt be as effective as a pass rusher All I'm trying to do is figure out what that skill is exactly and if the players who are better at that skill are actually better at pass rushing. Intuitively it makes sense, but it's the offseason so let's go further than just assuming things are correct. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said: How many NFL players have had 13 sack seasons that you would consider to not be a good pass rusher, at least at some point in their career? We agree that looking at a player's sacks in a previous season is the best way to predict their seasons for the next year. We agree that the best pass rushers have some kind of bend and ability to win with speed. We don't agree on that. If you look at any article on the predictive ability of sacks you'll find that they're a poor indicator for success in the future. You've shown that guys with 13+ sacks last season have <= 7.18 3 cone; I don't know that they win with speed or bend because we haven't actually looked at their pass rushing wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snackattack Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 15 minutes ago, deathstar said: All I'm trying to do is figure out what that skill is exactly and if the players who are better at that skill are actually better at pass rushing. Intuitively it makes sense, but it's the offseason so let's go further than just assuming things are correct. Its how much can you reduce your angle to the ground (standing upright being 90 degrees and parallel being 0 degrees) while maintaining speed and stability. Guys like gary dont flatten the angle much while maintaining speed and stability, and if he tries to flatten the angle he falls down. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexGreen#20 Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 16 minutes ago, deathstar said: We don't agree on that. If you look at any article on the predictive ability of sacks you'll find that they're a poor indicator for success in the future. You've shown that guys with 13+ sacks last season have <= 7.18 3 cone; I don't know that they win with speed or bend because we haven't actually looked at their pass rushing wins. Give me one better way to predict the sack numbers in future seasons? Who are the pass rushers that can't win with speed? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar Posted July 6, 2019 Share Posted July 6, 2019 1 minute ago, AlexGreen#20 said: Give me one better way to predict the sack numbers in future seasons? Who are the pass rushers that can't win with speed? Pressures. If a guy is winning 50+ times a season then he's more likely to do that again next year. I'm not sure why you're asking me about pass rushers who can't win with speed. Are you asking if there are players with fast 3 cones who aren't good pass rushers? Below you'll find the top 3 cones posted in mockdraftable's database among DEs. There's like 2-3 great players and a bunch of nothing. Kamalei Correa DEBoise State, 2016 6.78s* Randy Gregory DENebraska, 2015 6.79s* James Cowser DESouthern Utah, 2016 6.8s Kony Ealy DEMissouri, 2014 6.83s Barkevious Mingo DELSU, 2013 6.84s Sam Hubbard DEOhio State, 2018 6.84s Jordan Willis DEKansas State, 2017 6.85s J.J. Watt DEWisconsin, 2011 6.88s Jamaal Anderson DEArkansas, 2007 6.88s Joey Bosa DEOhio State, 2016 6.89s Devin Taylor DESouth Carolina, 2013 6.89s Jake Bequette DEArkansas, 2012 6.9s Vinny Curry DEMarshall, 2012 6.9s Vic Beasley DEClemson, 2015 6.91s Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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