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Lions Select TE T.J. Hockenson #8 Overall

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3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

I expect Fant (assuming they play similar number of games, no injuries, etc.) to have more year one impact than Hockenson in terms of yards and TD's.

Hock - 300 yards, 3 TD's

Fant - 600 yards, 5 TD's

I don't get why you would think this.

Hockenson is easily better strictly as a receiver as well.

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10 minutes ago, detroitroar said:

I don't get why you would think this.

Hockenson is easily better strictly as a receiver as well.

Because he's going to be used as a mismatch weapon in ways that Hockenson won't be.

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12 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Because he's going to be used as a mismatch weapon in ways that Hockenson won't be.

But Hockenson is significantly harder to match up against 

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1 hour ago, Karnage84 said:

That's typical of a high end rookie TE. I think Evan Engram was one of the few to actually put up big yardage early on in his career... 722 yards, 6 TD's on an offense where he was the only real receiving threat (OBJ and Shepherd were both injured) and no Barkley. Two guys from 2018 who are similar athletically: Mike Geisicki and Mark Andrews. Herndon has similar size but isn't as athletic as some of the other guys.

Geisicki (2nd Round MIA): 202 Yards, 0 TD

Goedert (2nd Round PHI): 334 Yards, 4 TD

Andrews (3rd Round BAL): 552 Yards, 3 TD

Herndon (4th Round NYJ): 502 Yards, 4 TD

If you're drafting for what you think the player could be, then maybe you can say they're worth it around the 20's to 30's. I still don't think a first round TE makes sense but I don't think this class is as deep as we've been told along the way. If Ed Oliver is Aaron Donald-lite, you're looking at 8 - 10 sacks from a guy that can be moved around the defense.  

I fully understand the development curve of typical TE’s.

I like the player, I just don’t like a TE at 10. 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, diehardlionfan said:

I fully understand the development curve of typical TE’s.

I like the player, I just don’t like a TE at 10. 

 

 

That's exactly the point I was making. We're not getting a 1,000 yd receiver out of a 1st round TE, let alone a top 10 rookie TE. At least with a rookie WR with the right player in the right offense you could see that kind of production. It just doesn't happen at TE.

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Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, detroitroar said:

Does running the ball not matter? 

How much better at blocking is Hockenson over some of the other blocking TE's in this draft? Apparently he's not.

PFF run grades (take them for what they are)

1) Drew Sample - 82.3

2) ? << Can't find a reference to the number 2 guy

3) Dawson Knox - 75.3

Hockenson - 71.6

Fant had a 67.7 run grade

Irv Smith 59.9

Edited by Karnage84

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15 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

How much better at blocking is Hockenson over some of the other blocking TE's in this draft?

From what I've read Hockenson is the best blocking tight end in the draft, which is pretty remarkable considering that he's also a really good receiving threat. 

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22 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

How much better at blocking is Hockenson over some of the other blocking TE's in this draft? Apparently he's not.

PFF run grades (take them for what they are)

1) Drew Sample - 82.3

2) ? << Can't find a reference to the number 2 guy

3) Dawson Knox - 75.3

Hockenson - 71.6

Fant had a 67.7 run grade

Irv Smith 59.9

Your certainly entitled to your opinion, but your putting way too much stock into numbers.

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8 minutes ago, Lions017 said:

From what I've read Hockenson is the best blocking tight end in the draft, which is pretty remarkable considering that he's also a really good receiving threat. 

Smooth route runner, excellent release, great hands, dangerous after the catch, great at jump balls. 

Execs even said he was the hardest prospect to find a weakness for after he was picked....fwiw

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At the end of the day, were all hoping it was the right choice, I'm just more confident in it than most.

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1 minute ago, detroitroar said:

Your certainly entitled to your opinion, but your putting way too much stock into numbers.

The media and several NFL teams do use PFF as at least one key point of reference. They're not the end all, be all. I get it. However, Hockenson can't be the consensus #1 run blocker when one of the main analytic sources has him down to at least #4. He's a better prospect at this point than Drew Sample as he's not THAT far off and has more production backing his ability as a receiver.

I'm not an expert but I'll try to form my own opinions and then weigh it against the opinions of those I consider to be experts to help me form my point of view. I can't watch every game and every snap like the PFF guys do.

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Its a great pick if he turns into KELCE or GRONK type star at TE, game changers if you get the pick right. The only question I had was which one is better for today in the NFL. Fant way more of a mismatch outside and will be used that way yet the other guy we drafted was better only this season on IOWA could just be the qb favored him.

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3 hours ago, Lions017 said:

Fant may end up being a better fantasy player, but Hockenson projects to be a far more complete player. Fant is more of the Ebron type of TE. 

Fant is what the Lions foolishly thought Ebron was when he was drafted.  Fant is actually an elite pass catching athletic TE.  Ebron was for some reason was thought to be this athletic marvel (he wasn’t really) that was a great pass catcher (he wasn’t.  Had a ton of drops in college)

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