2019 Packers Defense Would You Look At It? Just Look At It!

[Mazrimiv]

The issues on defense represent a failure across multiple levels of the team. Take a look at the top 3 picks of that last 6 drafts.  Eighteen high value picks.  Fourteen of those picks spent on the defense.  No less than eight RD1/RD2 picks spent trying to upgrade the secondary, with four of those DB's no longer on the roster, and one buried deep on the depth chart. Two separate coaching staffs have tried to make it work with these players, and the defense has not improved in any significant way. I honestly have no idea whether the coaches or the FO is more to blame.

With the bean counters now seeming to have the real power within the organization, I have little doubt that Pettine will be DC again next year.  I doubt his contract was a two year deal.

Edited November 30, 2019 by Mazrimiv

[OneTwoSixFive]

So much of the speculation on Pettine is based on recent play by the defense, but the Packers rolled with Capers for years and years without letting him go. I think he will get every chance to turn this defense around. While he is the 'boss' of the defense, he may not yet have the best positional coaches to work with, to help him mold the defense into what he wants, since any new coach can only sort through some of the coaches available when he himself joins (and may still not get who they want). After 3-4 years on the job, he will have had enough options to upgrade weak areas, if he so chooses.

I'm not a Pettine apologist (though I may sound like one) and his current defense is not doing well in an environment that is so very results-driven. I haven't forgotten his fine efforts last year, to manufacture pressure from, well, nothing really, on a chronically poor defense. Whether you want to keep him or replace him is down to how you project his future. If he carries on with a defense playing badly, I expect him to be gone in a couple more years, I doubt it will happen sooner than the end of 2021 though. If he turns things around, his tenure could be a long one.

I'm still tilted towards him turning things around over time, maybe the defense looks very different with a more mature Rashan Gary and Kingsley Keke, plus the possibility of a stud DL and a partner for Martinez at ILB, in the 2020 draft. It is possible that he will be willing to use more of a traditional 2xILB defense, if he has an improved D line and a decent second ILB with the range to play coverage. It is even possible he will change his thinking on the way his current defensive scheme works.............. that is, after all, what self-scouting is all about.

I do disagree that Pettine will only stay due to bean-counting finance, I just think this organisation is almost never as hasty in replacing coordinators, compared to moving players. Unless key people (like Gute, La Fleur or the bulk of the defensive players) have serious problems relating to him, he will have a couple more years to turn things around.

Edited November 30, 2019 by OneTwoSixFive

[MacReady]

No.  Defensive coordinators historically get worse as they continue coaching.  They don't get better.  Especially when they're fired head coaches who have nothing to shoot for as far as promotions/moving up.  Dom Capers peeked in his second year and literally never came close to a top 10 defense again. 

Bob Sanders peeked in 2007.  Dan Quinn had one good year as coordinator for the Seahawks and has never been close to being a top 10 defense in Atlanta. 

I don't have time to go through it, but I remember seeing someone showing this information while Capers was still our DC and it was wildly convincing.  Defensive coordinators do not get better.  They get worse. 

Years one and two for a defensive coordinator are always the best.  After that there are steep declines and they never get back to that year one/year two status. 

Pettine is not getting better.  We could use every one of our draft picks on defense next year and if we have Pettine it's going to be the same old bull****.  Great against nobody quarterbacks, but as soon as we run into even Ryan Tannehill level quarterbacks, we're going to look bad. 

WE ARE WORST IN THE LEAGUE AT GIVING UP BIG PLAYS AND WE HAVE Z, P, KENNY, AMOS, SAVAGE, ALEXANDER, KING.

[OneTwoSixFive]

@Outpost31  I don't think your feelings about Pettine are mirrored by the packers org. I'm pretty sure you will disappointed if you expect Pettine to be dismissed before the end of 2021.

The fact that I would give him longer is pretty irrelevant, since I don't make the decisions, but the Packers org does not have a history of dumping DCs quickly, unless there is either a strong personality clash, or the coach needs a scapegoat (which doesn't apply with any force on an 8-3 rookie HC). I haven't seen any signs of clashing personality, so far.

[MacReady]

Just now, OneTwoSixFive said:

the Packers org does not have a history of dumping DCs quickly

Eh, not really true. 

Capers (McCarthy's decision making here) lasted a long time.  Before that,

Bob Sanders - 3 years.
Jim Bates - 1 year.
Bob Slowick - 1 year.
Ed Donatell - 4 years
Emmit Thomas - 1 year

So in this century (outside of Capers, which was McCarthy's decision), Packers defensive coordinators have averaged 2 years. 

McCarthy gave Sanders 3 years after inheriting him.  Sanders defenses were 25th, 7th and then 22nd in offensive points against. 

The Packers last year were 22nd in offensive points against.  AFTER we went out and signed two major EDGE free agents and a significant starter at safety, then added 2 more defensive contributors in the draft and remained almost 100% healthy on defense, Pettine has risen only 8 spots in the points against ranking.  All those additions, plus complete health, and we're allowing only 3 less points per game. 

Additionally, look at how often teams will bring in new offensive coordinators or even brand new head coaches in order to fix their high QB picks.  Who is to say our entire team doesn't want more out of Rashan Gary and think maybe another coordinator could get more out of him? 

Consider the talent that Alexander has, and also the talent King has.  Consider our second round pick used on Josh Jackson.  Then there's the fact that Blake Martinez is a darn good linebacker made to look like some scrub, the fact that Matthews is again playing like a top half EDGE defender in St. Louis, the fact that Kenny Clark has NOT looked as good as he normally does, players wide open on every major third down, leading the league in big plays allowed, being COMPLETELY healthy on defense at an unprecedented level...

Mike Pettine is having a MAJOR letdown season as defensive coordinator. 

Mike Pettine is trash and is one of those arrogant types who can watch his team get embarrassed over and over again and think it's about pad level when the reality is that every team in the NFL knows exactly what they have to do to beat his defense.  He is garbage.  He got exactly what he wanted this offseason with not one, but TWO EDGE defenders in free agency, both of them are having a hell of a season, and yet we're worst in the NFL at three and outs, we are worst in the NFL at big plays allowed, worst in the NFL at average rush yards per attempt and there is no excuse from an injury or from a lack of talent perspective. 

If Matt LaFleur is okay with that, if Mark Murphy is okay with that, if Gute is okay with that, to hell with my complaints of Aaron Rodgers, we couldn't win with 2011 Aaron Rodgers. 

[Gopackgonerd]

58 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

No.  Defensive coordinators historically get worse as they continue coaching.  They don't get better.  Especially when they're fired head coaches who have nothing to shoot for as far as promotions/moving up.  Dom Capers peeked in his second year and literally never came close to a top 10 defense again. 

Bob Sanders peeked in 2007.  Dan Quinn had one good year as coordinator for the Seahawks and has never been close to being a top 10 defense in Atlanta. 

I don't have time to go through it, but I remember seeing someone showing this information while Capers was still our DC and it was wildly convincing.  Defensive coordinators do not get better.  They get worse. 

Years one and two for a defensive coordinator are always the best.  After that there are steep declines and they never get back to that year one/year two status. 

Pettine is not getting better.  We could use every one of our draft picks on defense next year and if we have Pettine it's going to be the same old bull****.  Great against nobody quarterbacks, but as soon as we run into even Ryan Tannehill level quarterbacks, we're going to look bad. 

WE ARE WORST IN THE LEAGUE AT GIVING UP BIG PLAYS AND WE HAVE Z, P, KENNY, AMOS, SAVAGE, ALEXANDER, KING.

I'm not saying Pettine isnt to blame for the misgivings of this defense, but isn't some of these big plays simplily are guys getting beat? We've saw it a ton this year even by guys like King and Alexander in the secondary. I get we brought it a lot of  great pieces, but are they all really playing THAT well besides the Smiths/Amos/Jaire(most of the time)?

Edited November 30, 2019 by Gopackgonerd

[MacReady]

Just now, Gopackgonerd said:

I'm not saying Pettine isnt to blame for the misgivings of this defense, but isn't some of these big plays simplily are guys getting beat? We've saw it a ton this year even by guys like King and Alexander in the secondary. I get we brought it a lot of  great pieces, but are they all really playing THAT well besides the Smiths/Amos/Jaire(most of the time)?

AG provided a really good explanation for this, but when you're expecting guys like Martinez to cover 20 some square yards worth of space, you're going to have guys getting beat.  Alexander has given up SOME big plays, but he's been on an island on those plays and our pass rush didn't get home.  Darrelle Revis in his prime isn't covering guys like Cooper for 6 seconds.  When Kevin King is the only player in the middle of the field covering the best or second best receiving tight end in the NFL, he's going to get embarrassed on a play action. 

So yeah, it's Pettine. 

[Gopackgonerd]

5 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

AG provided a really good explanation for this, but when you're expecting guys like Martinez to cover 20 some square yards worth of space, you're going to have guys getting beat.  Alexander has given up SOME big plays, but he's been on an island on those plays and our pass rush didn't get home.  Darrelle Revis in his prime isn't covering guys like Cooper for 6 seconds.  When Kevin King is the only player in the middle of the field covering the best or second best receiving tight end in the NFL, he's going to get embarrassed on a play action. 

So yeah, it's Pettine. 

Wasnt he supposed to get help on that play deep? Is that mental error by the players or the coach? Why cant we blame both?

Edited November 30, 2019 by Gopackgonerd

[MacReady]

2 minutes ago, Gopackgonerd said:

Wasnt he supposed to get help on that play deep? Is that mental error by the players or the coach? Why cant we blame both?

Dom Capers in 2010 coached an undrafted rookie into a starting role in which he had a significantly better season than any of our cornerbacks are currently having.  He also coached whom many considered a bust in Collins into an elite safety and ensured Charlie Peprah wasn’t a liability at safety.  
 

Good coaches coach out mental gaffs and errors.  It’s coaching.  

[Gopackgonerd]

14 minutes ago, Outpost31 said:

Dom Capers in 2010 coached an undrafted rookie into a starting role in which he had a significantly better season than any of our cornerbacks are currently having.  He also coached whom many considered a bust in Collins into an elite safety and ensured Charlie Peprah wasn’t a liability at safety.  
 

Good coaches coach out mental gaffs and errors.  It’s coaching.  

You also had Woodson and Prime Tramon in that secondary to pair with Collins and Shields. Also didnt Collins have like 3 INTs for TDs and 7 INTs total in 2008 before Capers came around? I'm not sure he wasnt already becoming an elite safety then. 

All those guys had elite ball skills and took the ball away on a consistent basis, which made that Defense so special. Our group doesnt have anywhere near the ball skills that defense has. Our DL is also so much worse than 2010.  

Edited November 30, 2019 by Gopackgonerd

[Sasquatch]

If my left nut was worth anything to GB, I’d give it up in a second to have a dominant defense.  Tired of the soft coverages, blown assignments, giving up the big plays several times a game, leaving certain players on an island, investing so much draft capital year after year and seeing more of the same.

ok, I’ll give up both nuts- I don’t need em anymore anyways.  Just show me something better than the status quo around here.  

[incognito_man]

I'd say there's a very good chance the defensive staff is overhauled this off-season. Definitely didn't do well in their interview season with MLF.

I'll be pretty disappointed if he doesn't, actually. I prefer to see proactive leadership this way.

[packfanfb]

Why do the Packers/their media realize problems 3/4 of the way through the year that were obvious to even semi-informed fans in training camp?

[OneTwoSixFive]

1 hour ago, Outpost31 said:

2 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

the Packers org does not have a history of dumping DCs quickly

Eh, not really true. 

Ok time for a bet then.

I say Pettine is still the DC right up until (at least) the end of 2021.  From everything you have said, you expect a change there earlier. This bet will take time to play out, but it will be interesting to see which way it goes, and which of us can cash in their notional chips............