With the 102nd pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Minnesota Vikings select Alexander Mattison, RB - Boise St.

[Cearbhall]

29 minutes ago, whitehops said:

am i the only one mis-remembering cook's ability?

I don't think so.  We are just somewhat mystified about the third round selection. Maybe it is about short yardage situations. Kubiak is very run heavy in the red zone and Cook wasn't great down near the end zone.

Not really sure. My other guess is that durability is enough of a concern that they don't think Cook can be the bell-cow back that Kubiak likes.

There is the other reason that I can imagine for the selection.

Because Spielman doing Spielman things.

Overall, Kubiak has never demanded a highly drafted RB.  In fact, when the Broncos drafted Portis in the second round they were confident enough in their ability to find a replacement with a lower round pick that the Broncos went ahead and traded Portis away after Portis started his career with two pretty good years.

In the end, Spielman might have just wanted to improve the short yardage run game and ignored/not trusted what he was hearing from the new coach he brought in.  I don't really know but based on history blaming Spielman for not understanding the offensive coaches system seems reasonable to me.  I don't really believe any of the reasons mentioned or why they would be trying to replace Cook. However, drafting a RB in the third to be a backup in Kubiak's system is borderline ridiculous too. Kubiak doesn't even get his starters that high in the draft generally.

To me, none of that means that Cook can't get the job done or that the rookie can't get the job done.  But I also believe a lower round pick could have gotten the job done; Kubiak has a long history that would support that contention.

It might bust be Spielman doing Spielman things.

[Klomp]

38 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

I don't think so.  We are just somewhat mystified about the third round selection. Maybe it is about short yardage situations. Kubiak is very run heavy in the red zone and Cook wasn't great down near the end zone.

Not really sure. My other guess is that durability is enough of a concern that they don't think Cook can be the bell-cow back that Kubiak likes.

There is the other reason that I can imagine for the selection.

Because Spielman doing Spielman things.

Overall, Kubiak has never demanded a highly drafted RB.  In fact, when the Broncos drafted Portis in the second round they were confident enough in their ability to find a replacement with a lower round pick that the Broncos went ahead and traded Portis away after Portis started his career with two pretty good years.

In the end, Spielman might have just wanted to improve the short yardage run game and ignored/not trusted what he was hearing from the new coach he brought in.  I don't really know but based on history blaming Spielman for not understanding the offensive coaches system seems reasonable to me.  I don't really believe any of the reasons mentioned or why they would be trying to replace Cook. However, drafting a RB in the third to be a backup in Kubiak's system is borderline ridiculous too. Kubiak doesn't even get his starters that high in the draft generally.

To me, none of that means that Cook can't get the job done or that the rookie can't get the job done.  But I also believe a lower round pick could have gotten the job done; Kubiak has a long history that would support that contention.

It might bust be Spielman doing Spielman things.

Just going back to the Kubiak thing, they drafted a RB 4 out of the 5 years (5 RB picks total) immediately after a rookie Terrell Davis ran for 1100 yards in 14 games. Those years were when Davis was at his healthiest. These weren't all super late picks either, they included a 3rd rounder and two 4th rounders. 

And when they traded Portis, they drafted another in the 2nd round that year plus a 3rd rounder the following year.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Klomp

[NoDakViking]

After watching some highlights,  he kinda reminds me of Chris Ivory.  Usually makes one good hard cut and hits the hole hard.  I think he should very well down towards the goal line

[Cearbhall]

19 minutes ago, Klomp said:

These weren't all super late picks either, they included a 3rd rounder and two 4th rounders. 

And when they traded Portis, they drafted another in the 2nd round that year plus a 3rd rounder the following year.

Interesting.  That is good information to have. Thanks.

That makes the selection a bit less confusing to me.  Cook does seem like a fine fit for the system. Given this, perhaps Kubiak would have been pushing for a RB in the third round?

I just looked up the Broncos draft picks. It does look like they invest way more resources into the RB position in the draft than I would have though based on my not-a-Bronco-fan memory. I know Kubiak got good usage out of undrafted Arian Foster in Houston. I am going to go peak at what kind of draft resources Houston spent on RBs.  It will certainly be interesting to see what I have forgotten there too.

Late Add:

Houston took Steve Slaton in the third round of the 2008 draft while Kubiak was the head coach.  They got Foster as an undrafted free agent in 2009.  Then they still invested a 2nd round pick into Ben Tate in 2010.  No other RBs during Kubiak's remaining years in Houston but that is still a couple RBs selected in higher rounds than I was remembering.

And that reminds me of my bad memories from fantasy football when I was trusting Kubiak's scheme too much and was way too optimistic about Slaton. I would have just as soon not been reminded of that mistake.

Edited May 1, 2019 by Cearbhall
Late Add

[Klomp]

2 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Interesting.  That is good information to have. Thanks.

That makes the selection a bit less confusing to me.  Cook does seem like a fine fit for the system. Given this, perhaps Kubiak would have been pushing for a RB in the third round?

"We have to have multiple backs in this offense. We wanted something that was similar to a Murray type." -Spielman

[Cearbhall]

2 minutes ago, Klomp said:

"We have to have multiple backs in this offense. We wanted something that was similar to a Murray type." -Spielman

I still wish the team went with another position with the pick but at least it is starting to make a little more sense to me now. Thanks. I was grossly mistaken on the draft picks Kubiak's various teams have put into the RB position.  It just happens that he got better production out of the later round guys than a lot of the RBs those teams drafted a bit earlier in the draft.

I still think that Kubiak wants a bell-cow back and that Cook won't simply be handed that job. Kubiak is more than willing to roll with the lower drafted guys if he decides he likes them better.  Cook's skills should make it challenging for Mattison to take the job.  That is a good thing.

[Klomp]

20 minutes ago, Cearbhall said:

Cook does seem like a fine fit for the system.

Spielman mentioned on FOX Sunday night that Cook was No. 1 in the league on outside zone runs. I don't think this pick will be an indictment of Cook.

[Krauser]

4 hours ago, whitehops said:

i expect cook to still be the lead back and handle most of the early-down work and receiving duty with mattison spelling him and being the short-yardage guy. not sure how much they'll be played at the same time but i'm envisioning a freeman-coleman dynamic with them.

I think this is exactly right. 

I wrote something on twitter today that it should be 65/35 if Cook's healthy, and of course Mattison should get the lion's share of goal line and short yardage work. Freeman and Coleman is exactly what that might look like.

Here are their stats from the Falcons' 2016 Super Bowl year: 

			Game	Game	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush	Rush
No.	Player	Age	G	GS	Att ▼	Yds	TD	Lng	Y/A	Y/G	A/G	Fmb
24	Devonta Freeman*	24	16	16	227	1079	11	75	4.8	67.4	14.2	1
26	Tevin Coleman	23	13	0	118	520	8	55	4.4	40.0	9.1	1

Usage is more like 60/40 once you adjust for Coleman missing 3 games (attempts per game: 14 vs 9). I'm sure it was closer to 70/30 on early downs. 

Freeman was a 2014 early 4th round pick (103rd overall), Coleman a 2015 3rd rounder (73rd). That's a similar investment to the Vikings with Cook (41st) and Mattison (102nd). 

...

I generally agree with the moneyball types who say RBs don't matter -- they should never basically never be taken with premium picks, and their contribution to a team's success is generally overrated (since much of it has to do with OL play and scheme, but the RBs get most of the credit). 

But I do think they matter to some degree. The NFL is pretty good at identifying good running backs -- most of the best ones do get drafted, at least by the middle rounds. Vikings fans certainly got to see the difference RB talent made in 2014, with Peterson suspended, and 2017, with Cook injured. 

I don't hate the idea of drafting a RB in general, but I do question the Mattison pick at a time when there were guards that should be future starters (McGovern, Samia, Froholdt) still on the board, and with some harder-to-fill long-term needs on the team especially at edge rusher if this is Griffen's last year. There was also the perception that the pick was a reach, since Mattison was projected as a day 3 pick. 

Some of that reaction subsided when they did land Samia.

And I think the Vikings draft makes more sense now  -- seen as a whole, once it was finished -- than it did halfway through round 3.

It seems they really wanted to establish the Kubiak/Dennison run system and play action offense. Bradbury is the C who can reach block for outside runs (which Elflein really struggled with last year, even healthy he's a lot less talented than Bradbury at this technique), Smith is the move TE / H-back who can line up all over, block effectively and threaten as a downfield receiver and for YAC (Rudolph and Morgan are much too slow and stiff to play that role), and Mattison is a one-cut RB with good vision and the power to finish short yardage runs (Cook, for all his abilities, is not a violent runner and is fairly easy to bring down as long as you can catch him). 

They needed all 3 pieces for the system to work. So they made sure they got them. 

Edited May 1, 2019 by Krauser

[vike daddy]

25 minutes ago, Krauser said:

And I think the Vikings draft makes more sense now  -- seen as a whole, once it was finished -- than it did halfway through round 3.

It seems they really wanted to establish the Kubiak/Dennison run system and play action offense. Bradbury is the C who can reach block for outside runs (which Elflein really struggled with last year, even healthy he's a lot less talented than Bradbury at this technique), Smith is the move TE / H-back who can line up all over, block effectively and threaten as a downfield receiver and for YAC (Rudolph and Morgan are much to slow and stiff to play that role), and Mattison is a one-cut RB with good vision and the power to finish short yardage runs (Cook, for all his abilities, is not a violent runner and is fairly easy to bring down as long as you can catch him). 

They needed all 3 pieces for the system to work. So they made sure they got them. 

i very much enjoyed reading this. thank you.

[Klomp]

27 minutes ago, Krauser said:

There was also the perception that the pick was a reach, since Mattison was projected as a day 3 pick.

I don't mean to be nitpicking your post, because I thought you made a lot of good analyses and points. But I've read this sentiment a few places. His selection was literally one pick away from being a Day 3 pick.

[Krauser]

2 minutes ago, Klomp said:

I don't mean to be nitpicking your post, because I thought you made a lot of good analyses and points. But I've read this sentiment a few places. His selection was literally one pick away from being a Day 3 pick.

Sure, but it was originally a day 2 pick, and we waited for over an hour while they traded down repeatedly, and saw some good players get drafted in the meantime (McGovern was the one I was most upset about at the time), and looked at the big names still on the big boards, and hoped the Vikings would still be able to get the one we wanted (I really, really wanted them to take Hakeem Butler), and then they drafted a guy who most people had never heard of, or watched, who was ranked in the 200 range on the consensus board, and who plays the analytically devalued RB position.

[vike daddy]

28 minutes ago, Krauser said:

Sure, but it was originally a day 2 pick, and we waited for over an hour while they traded down repeatedly, and saw some good players get drafted in the meantime (McGovern was the one I was most upset about at the time), and looked at the big names still on the big boards, and hoped the Vikings would still be able to get the one we wanted (I really, really wanted them to take Hakeem Butler), and then they drafted a guy who most people had never heard of, or watched, who was ranked in the 200 range on the consensus board, and who plays the analytically devalued RB position.

other than that, Mrs Lincoln, how did you enjoy the play...?

[Klomp]

 

[battle2heaven]

1 minute ago, Klomp said:

 

Usually Evan Silva has solid takes, but one of the worst picks in the draft is a puzzling take. 

[Klomp]

7 minutes ago, battle2heaven said:

Usually Evan Silva has solid takes, but one of the worst picks in the draft is a puzzling take. 

"Mattison isn’t a better prospect than pre-draft No. 2 back Mike Boone." -Evan Silva