How well did the NFC North draft?

[Dolmonite26]

5 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Even if you dont like Savage at worste I see him as a early 3rd to late 2nd pick.

that makes him a reach, him being a safety makes it a poor value

 

6 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

Gary has always been a top 15 player even if he was unpopular in this forum. 

Personal opinion on him, but I don't think he's good. Simple as that, so poor selection based on my own evaluation, but even by consensus rankings it was a reach.

8 minutes ago, Spartacus said:

All that being said getting Keke, Sternberger, and Jenkins IMO were all better players then where they were drafted while the late round prospects are all intriguing

I said they were solid selections, but the impact of your draft is still going to be felt in the early rounds and imo the Packers didnt do well.

[vike daddy]

@goldfishwars has authored a thread where he rates how each team did in the draft, according to his expert analysis:

he starts at the bottom and works his way to the top.

Chicago Bears...? #31 on his list.

[CWood21]

16 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

that makes him a reach, him being a safety makes it a poor value

Just because you were late on him to the table doesn't make it poor value.  It just means you're late.  He was 36th according to TDN, which most have said is one of the better websites.  Not saying it's the end all, be all but it's worth the discussion.  Baltimore traded out shortly after the Packers announced Darnell Savage as their draft pick, and Rob Demovsky mentioned that the Colts were highly intrigued by Savage as well.  So I'll ask you, did multiple teams feel like they were going to reach for Savage or is your preconceived notion of Savage?  The whole concept of reaches and steals needs to die.  Value is subjective.  If you want to have an honest analysis of Savage, I'd love to hear your perspective.

[HitStickAllDay]

I liked the Vikings' draft quite a bit. Bradbury fits our scheme extremely well and Irv Smith gives us a dynamic option that makes it less important for us to develop a true WR3. I would like us to kick Thielen into the slot, where he seems to thrive, but I think adding weapons makes sense. While I can see some people's view that defense is where we should've focused, I think we had glaring needs on the offensive line and signing Josh Kline simply isn't going to get it done. I think our coaches have shown enough that drafting athletic prospects late can bear fruit when given time. I think that is the hallmark of a great coaching staff. It seems pretty well documented that 1st and 2nd round picks are mostly a crap shoot. Finding value late in the draft is where solid teams are made. I think that the defense didn't need much to maintain an above average defense. We still have a lot of solid core players and with the exception of a penetrating 3T the defense doesn't require much this season. I hope we can keep Weatherly and I am a big Waynes fan for the right money. Thankfully, Hughes showed flashes before his injury. The biggest question mark on the D seems to be at DT. Hopefully we can scrape some things together on a rotational basis. Linval is still solid, but he is showing signs of regression. 

I'm almost always a glass half full guy with the Vikings. It's more fun for me that way, so I am happy and excited for the upcoming season. 

I don't really have comments on the other NFC North drafts. I've heard the same criticisms of Gary as everyone else, but I haven't watched any tape or delved into his perceived deficiencies to have an opinion.

 

[Vikes_Bolts1228]

1 hour ago, vike daddy said:

it would have been better if you could have expressed this in crayon.

You're right.

We want our friends to the east to be able to understand it.

[Krauser]

I don't know a lot about the players beyond scouting reports and draft boards, but I know enough about the teams and their rosters that I can evaluate their drafts on that basis. 

Chicago Bears
Iowa State RB David Montgomery (No. 73); Georgia WR Riley Ridley (No. 126); Kansas State CB Duke Shelley (No. 205); Florida Atlantic RB Kerrith White (No. 222); Valdosta State CB Stephen Denmark (No. 238) 

They didn't have much draft capital after trading for Mack last year and moving up for Anthony Miller in the 2018 draft. Miller is a good WR, but the value with that trade was poor. The Bears in that trade got Miller (at pick 51) in return for their 4th rounder (105) -- which the Patriots traded to the Browns who drafted Antonio Callaway (who put up 586 yards and 5 TDs vs Miller's 423 and 7) -- and this year's 2nd rounder (56) -- which the Patriots traded to the Chiefs, who drafted Mecole Hardman. So the trade is Miller for Callaway and Hardman -- I think most teams would take the 2 for 1. 

The Bears draft this year looks to have been aimed at replacing Jordan Howard as the RB1 and Bryce Callahan as the NCB, both lost to free agency. Doubling dipping in the draft at both positions isn't a bad idea. Montgomery has amazing balance and runs low -- he broke a lot of tackles. Scouts I've read have questioned his balance and burst, but he should be a good RB. 

The Bears roster is one of the best in the league. The defense is excellent, front to back, with 3 elite players (Mack, Hicks and Jackson) and additional blue chip starters beyond that like Fuller and Goldman. The question mark for me is safety, where they're replacing the very good Adrian Amos (now in GB) with HaHa Clinton-Dix. HHCD was a good deep coverage safety at his best for the Packers, but he never looked comfortable coming downhill, which Amos excelled at. The other concern is what this group looks like after the departure of Vic Fangio. They seem talented enough that they shouldn't drop off much, but coaching changes can have a big effect.

The Bears offense isn't great on paper -- Allan Robinson and Tarik Cohen are the only 2 who might get an argument for elite at their positions -- but Nagy's scheme makes the most of their talent, constantly creating mismatches and beating opposing talent with misdirection. They added our old friend Cordarrelle Patterson to the mix this year, so now we have to try to contain Cohen, Montgomery, Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Patterson and Burton twice a year. 

I don't think Trubisky is very good, but with that talent and scheme around him I expect the Bears to put up double digit wins again this year. Montgomery may be the only part of their draft class that contributes as a rookie. 

Detroit Lions
Iowa TE T.J. Hockenson (No. 8 overall); Hawaii LB Jahlani Tavai (No. 43); Boston College DB Will Harris (No. 81); Clemson DE Austin Bryant (No. 117); Penn State CB Amani Oruwariye (No. 146); Old Dominion WR Travis Fulgham (No. 184); Maryland RB Ty Johnson (No. 186); Georgia TE Isaac Nauta (No. 224); Arizona DT P.J. Johnson (No. 229)

Not as bad as people think. Hockenson should be great, but I question the value of taking a TE that high. Some of their picks looked like reaches based on the consensus board, but I don't mind that if there's a good scheme fit. For instance, Tavai is a heavier throwback type of LB who can play the SLB role like Hightower for the Patriots. They took him too early, but if he's the only guy on their board who fills the need, no need to risk waiting. 

The Lions roster is in better shape than it was a year ago. The DL in particular (Hand/Harrison/Ashawn Robinson) is very solid. They were lacking an edge rusher but they paid to bring in Trey Flowers, who's been excellent in NE. Their secondary is thin with the aging Quin released. Slay is their only difference maker back there. The OL has a lot invested, but they've never been better than OK. Kerryon Johnson is solid but his production wasn't great. Golladay is their one major offensive weapon, so Hock should at least help them diversify their offense.

The question now is whether Patricia can scheme the talent up to at least be competitive for the wild card race. He's had the team for over a year now, so if they're going to turn the corner, we should see signs of that this year. Hockenson should help with the offense. If Tavani can solidify the run defense while Flowers finally gives them a consistent edge rusher, the defense could get good in a hurry. 

Green Bay Packers
Michigan OLB Rashan Gary (No. 12 overall); Maryland S Darnell Savage (No. 21 overall); Texas A&M OG Elgton Jenkins (No. 44); Texas A&M TE Jace Sternberger (No. 75); Texas A&M DE Kingsley Keke (No. 150); Toledo CB Ka'dar Hollman (No. 185); Notre Dame RB Dexter Williams (No. 194); TCU LB Ty Summers (No. 226)

Gary is a freak athlete but plays a power game as an edge rusher without much in the way of counter moves or bend around the edge. He might do better at 3-tech, but then the Packers already have Mike Daniels (slowing down a little but still solid) at 3-tech. And one of their 2 expensive FA edge rushers, Za'Darius Smith, is similarly limited as a rusher, and put up a lot of his production with the Ravens rushing from inside. The official line for Packers fans is that Gary didn't produce much in college because he was always double teamed, but the PFF guys looked at his grades in single edge rushes against tackles, and that wasn't the case -- he just wasn't very productive, despite his athleticism. 

Gary isn't going to be terrible or anything, but I wonder if he'll be more like a healthy Nick Perry, or an athletic Za'Darius Smith (who the Packers gave, seriously, $16.5M AAV over 4 years after putting up 18.5 sacks in his first 4 years, at the age of nearly 27, with mediocre athletic testing). Gary's main strength will be run defense, where he's a monster. Put him next to Clark and Daniels and they'll be a handful.

Savage is a safety that a lot of people who watched safeties really liked. They need a Harrison Smith or Eddie Jackson, and he could be the guy. Excellent athlete and highly coveted player, first safety off the board. Should be good. 

Jenkins is a C/G who I hoped would fall to the Vikings in the 2nd if they'd drafted a tackle in the 1st. PFF liked him a lot, better than Bradbury based on his charting. The Packers have Linsley at C, so Jenkins will play guard. 

Sternberger is a receiving TE. He's not a freak but he's fast enough, and he's smooth. Good size and length and able to catch overhead in traffic, so he's a red zone weapon too. Basically he's what Kyle Rudolph might've been if he could run better. 

Keke is another power rusher with limited agility, comparable to Jalyn Holmes who the Vikings drafted last year. He can compete at DE and might be a future starter, excellent value if he is.

For the late rounders, Hollman is super athletic, but he'll be a 25 year old rookie whose cover skills are still raw. Summers is an athletic LB who lasted to the 7th round despite excellent metrics, which suggests he's not actually that good at playing his position. I don't know anything about the RB. 

...

The Packers typically value athleticism, and this draft class was no different. But despite drafting a lot of "potential" and "upside" for years now, they've had trouble developing blue chip talent on defense. Dating back 10 years, their only clear hits have been Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark.

They've had particular trouble with DBs, investing a whopping 9 picks in the first 2 rounds on DBs since 2010, in return finding no stars and only one long-term starter who got a 2nd contract in Green Bay (Burnett). It's not necessarily a problem with identifying talent either -- Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde (a 5th rounder, not part of the 9 early picks) both turned into stars, but only after leaving town, and now HHCD and Randall will be starting for other teams. There's been a problem with development and scheme (as well as injuries, and poor depth, etc).

Mike Pettine is supposed to improve that, and the group did make some strides last year. He was retained as the DC despite the coaching turnover -- a very smart move. Much as with Patricia in Detroit (and Zimmer in Minnesota in 2015), year 2 will be telling as to whether Pettine has the Packers on the right track. He certainly has some raw talent to work with. 

But until or unless some of these highly drafted athletic prospects turn into actually good NFL starters, the Packers defense will be better in theory than in real life. Clark is their only clear blue chip player right now. Daniels used to be, but I think his best days are behind him. They added a couple of very good players in Preston Smith and Amos, but their best prime age talent otherwise is try-hard good-but-not-great guys like Martinez, Fackrell and Za'darius Smith. If everything clicks with their young DBs (Kevin King and Josh Jackson outside, Jaire in the slot, Amos and Savage at safeties), they'll have a great secondary. But until then it's more potential than anything. 

On offense, it's hard to know what the Packers will do under Lafleur. I tend to think the problem wasn't just with McCarthy and his scheme but with Rodgers' play becoming undisciplined and his supporting cast weakening over the years.

The OL in particular is a shadow of what it used to be in the days of Sitton and Lang. Bakhtiari is great, Bulaga's good when he's healthy,  and Linsley is good, but the guards are mediocre as is the depth like Spriggs. The Packers let their very successful OL coach go (Campen) and replaced him with an assistant from the Niners. Drafting Jenkins will help the talent level, but they didn't add anything at tackle. Bulaga is 30 with an injury history, Spriggs is the backup who's never played well as a starter, and both are entering the final years of their contracts.

The WR group has been saved by Adams developing from a liability in his 2nd year to a blue chip receiver, one of the best in the league. The rest of the group is a bunch of developmental guys who produced last year as rookies despite not playing well. Their stats were better than their actual level of play, thanks to having little other competition for targets (Adams, Graham who's washed up, and Geronimo Allison), and having Rodgers throwing to them, and throwing often. GB didn't add anything at WR, so the plan is apparently to hope that the 2018 drafted WRs follow in Adams' footsteps and become effective starters in another year or three. There's bound to be some growing pains along the way. 

At TE, Graham is indeed washed up. They'll look to release him no later than next year. Sternberger was a smart pick -- he'll be a very good seam target for Rodgers. 

The RBs are in good shape. Aaron Jones is great, best player on their offense after the 3 blue chips (Rodgers, Adams and Bakhtiari).

Rodgers is the big question mark. Does his decline come down to the situation with McCarthy, and can it be reversed with the coaching and scheme change. I don't think he'll have declined much physically, so in theory he should be able to turn it around.  

I wonder though about his motivation, or more precisely, about his willingness to change his approach to the game as he ages, and to deal with adversity if the team does go through more growing pains while the OL is rebuilt, the young WRs learn the ropes, and the defense starts to gel. Rodgers seems unusually motivated not just to win, but to be seen as the hero when his team wins -- and it's almost as good when he's the hero and the team loses anyway (like the playoff game in Arizona, with the Hail Marys followed by the loss in OT).

The aging QBs who've found the most success have played a simpler game -- Brady and Brees particularly -- and have benefitted from excellent supporting casts and coaching. Their coaches have gotten a lot of credit for the team's success, as have coaches of similarly disciplined younger QBs like Goff working with McVey. Rodgers though is rarely content to execute someone else's plan precisely, he wants to dazzle with a moment of improvisatory genius. And I wonder whether he can actually win if he keeps trying to play like that. He turns 36 in December. 

...

I think Savage and Sternberger at least will be very good, and Savage may be a star. Gary will contribute even if he doesn't live up to his draft position, and Jenkins will be another in a long line of good Packers OL.

But the Packers success as a team depends so much more on Rodgers meshing with Lafleur and them designing an offense that maximizes his gifts, that it's hardly worth debating whether their draft class is excellent or only pretty good.

Their record this year could be anywhere from 4-12 to 12-4, depending on what happens between Aaron Rodgers' ears.

Edited April 29, 2019 by Krauser

[gopherwrestler]

I guess I loved the Packers draft, but being honest, only adding Jace to the offensive is a shame. I know they have some young receivers but for as much as I love to hate Rodgers it stinks his real only “target” is Adams.

[The Gnat]

I think that the Packers had an okay draft. The middle part of the draft is really good, however, those two first round picks, I don't like either of them. Gary is such a questionmark and while I think he can maybe be solid, I don't ever see him being all that great.

Lions picks feel pretty safe and solid, but nothing jumps out at me as a player who is going to push them to the next elvel.

Bears obviously missing some picks, they drafted what they needed.

[Spartacus]

1 hour ago, The Gnat said:

I don't like either of them. Gary is such a questionmark and while I think he can maybe be solid, I don't ever see him being all that great.

I agree with you on Gary completely. People have been describing him as a low floor player but I think of him as a pretty high floor player at least against the run,  but what don't you like about Savage? Hes a 4.3 guy who plays like a 4.3 guy and has great instincts, ball skills, and good tackling ability? I didn't spend much time watching him till after the draft. Mostly due to the fact is I don't have time to watch game tape on every player and mostly watch game tape of players commonly mocked to us before the draft. His tape is better than Thornhill, CGJ, and Adderly. He reminds me a lot of Thomas and their draft profiles read almost like mirror images of each other. Not saying he will be ET but he has the potential for it. The only issue I see with him is his size but I don't expect him to be asked to play in the box where that would be an issue. 

[Karnage84]

Lions fan here. I put together a similar thread since we now have a very long time to mull over things until real football starts.

Our draft isn't a flashy one but it fits what the team is looking to do. While other teams are looking to spread things out and add speed, the Lions are adding size and power to the roster. A lot of us are still torn on the Hockenson pick. A top 10 TE is rarely the right move, however it appears that we weren't the only ones who would have taken him up high. The Jaguars were allegedly going to look at him or Jonah Williams until Josh Allen slid to them. I don't think this TE class is as good as it was being advertised initially. Hockenson is a high quality character player, solid blocker and receiving threat. We're looking to get back to running the ball effectively and Hockenson will play a big part in that.

All of us were looking at the Tavai pick and were like "who?". However, when you look at Quinn's comments, they got their guy. They want big linebackers who are versatile and can cover. The Lions were looking for very specific traits and there were only a handful of guys that fit their mold. It also sounded like there were a couple teams who were sniffing around him in this round. Likely the Pats or Dolphins. This pick feels a lot like when we took Golladay and that has worked out ok so far.

As for the rest of the picks, we added some solid depth and I expect we'll be getting similar production out of Bryant and Harris like we did with Walker and Hand.

Quinn and Patricia have a plan on how they want to rebuild this team. They're looking to build a tough, hard-nosed and competitive football team. We finished last season with a top 10 defense. We've revamped our running game. Stafford should be healthy.

I don't expect us to win the division but we aren't going to be an automatic W either.

As for your Vikings - 1) Holy number of picks, Batman. That was a ton.

I like the Bradbury pick and can support a team trying to protect their QB. I'm not a fan of Irv Smith. I don't think he's going to be a top end TE compared to some of the other guys in the class. I like Samia, Smith Udoh and Mitchell. If I'm Cousins, I'm hoping that Samia and Udoh are depth guys for this season however he can't complain about getting added protection.

The Packers are always a difficult team with Aaron Rodgers there. I don't love Gary but he has the physical tools to wind up being a dominant player. Savage was a guy that a number of analysts were very high on. I didn't put a ton of work into the safety class as I didn't expect Detroit to take one. I don't like Sternberger as much as I like Fant, Knox or Moreau but who knows. Playing with Rodgers, he could wind up being a HOFer.

The Bears are the least improved team from the draft but they also just won the division. I really like the Montgomery and Ridley picks for them. With the Lions and Packers improving their defenses (and Vikings already having a very solid D), I can see the Bears come back to earth a bit.

 

Enjoy the rest of your off-season gents and good luck trying to figure out your next jersey purchase.

[CWood21]

4 hours ago, gopherwrestler said:

I guess I loved the Packers draft, but being honest, only adding Jace to the offensive is a shame. I know they have some young receivers but for as much as I love to hate Rodgers it stinks his real only “target” is Adams.

MVS finished 6th in receptions and receiving yards among rookie WRs.  Among the guys that finished ahead of him are: Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk, and Antonio Callaway.  Nobody is rushing to bury those guys on the depth chart, so why are people trying to do the same thing for MVS?

[TENINCH]

I think every team got some difference makers. Even the Bears got some players that'll give everyone problems. Hopefully the some depth issues were solved by every team. The NFC North drafted better than any division overall.

[gopherwrestler]

1 hour ago, CWood21 said:

MVS finished 6th in receptions and receiving yards among rookie WRs.  Among the guys that finished ahead of him are: Calvin Ridley, DJ Moore, Courtland Sutton, Christian Kirk, and Antonio Callaway.  Nobody is rushing to bury those guys on the depth chart, so why are people trying to do the same thing for MVS?

That’s not really it, I like MVS also, but we are ready to bury most of them. Ridley is a 3rd receiving option, DJ Moore is like to see even improved upon, Sutton is about the same situation as MVS, Kirk was injuries so you can’t count him but the cards also just got a couple WR’s, and Callaway did just get buried by the trade of OBJ.

 

in reality, in a small way it was about like the Vikings. I would have preferred to bring in another receiving option outside of Diggs and Thielen. We drafted one late, but I don’t think after our top two WR’s there isn’t much there. 

How confident are you with the next in line guys if Adams goes down?

[vike daddy]

For the rest of the NFC North, McShay praised Green Bay’s pick of Maryland safety Darnell Savage, Jr., 21st overall, Detroit’s selection of Iowa tight end T.J. Hockenson (No. 8) and Chicago’s addition of Georgia wide receiver Riley Ridley, who was snagged with the 126th overall pick.

https://www.vikings.com/news/lunchbreak-espn-s-todd-mcshay-lists-top-value-pick-for-every-nfl-team?sf211797856=1

[CWood21]

10 hours ago, gopherwrestler said:

That’s not really it, I like MVS also, but we are ready to bury most of them. Ridley is a 3rd receiving option, DJ Moore is like to see even improved upon, Sutton is about the same situation as MVS, Kirk was injuries so you can’t count him but the cards also just got a couple WR’s, and Callaway did just get buried by the trade of OBJ.

I'm talking about in general.  Why are people so quick to try and bury MVS, but they're thrilled with the future of Moore/Ridley/Sutton/Kirk?  It has everything to do with draft status, and absolutely NOTHING to do with production.  If MVS was a 2nd round pick, everyone would be thrilled with his production.  But because he's a 5th round pick, it's an anomaly.  It's not just rivals.  We're seeing Packers' fans who are ready to bury him on the depth chart.

10 hours ago, gopherwrestler said:

How confident are you with the next in line guys if Adams goes down?

Honestly, not too worried.  If Aaron Rodgers can't produce with MVS, ESB, and Moore, then maybe he's not as good as we think he is.  I don't think that's the case, but the point still remains that Rodgers shouldn't need All Pro receivers to be successful.  Either way, the Packers went about it the right way IMO.  They took big, athletic WRs with strong tools and put them in a position to succeed.