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How well did the NFC North draft?


vike daddy

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7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I'm talking about in general.  Why are people so quick to try and bury MVS, but they're thrilled with the future of Moore/Ridley/Sutton/Kirk?  It has everything to do with draft status, and absolutely NOTHING to do with production.  If MVS was a 2nd round pick, everyone would be thrilled with his production.  But because he's a 5th round pick, it's an anomaly.  It's not just rivals.  We're seeing Packers' fans who are ready to bury him on the depth chart.

Honestly, not too worried.  If Aaron Rodgers can't produce with MVS, ESB, and Moore, then maybe he's not as good as we think he is.  I don't think that's the case, but the point still remains that Rodgers shouldn't need All Pro receivers to be successful.  Either way, the Packers went about it the right way IMO.  They took big, athletic WRs with strong tools and put them in a position to succeed.

You’re preaching to the wrong choir. We know about late round and UDFA producing at WR, I think most of use know MVS can produce.

 

again, I’m not saying the receivers can’t produce or Rodgers can’t without top flight receivers, but it sure would help. I guess I don’t see Allison or ESB being solid enough but MVS is.

 

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On 4/29/2019 at 7:03 AM, gopherwrestler said:

I guess I loved the Packers draft, but being honest, only adding Jace to the offensive is a shame. I know they have some young receivers but for as much as I love to hate Rodgers it stinks his real only “target” is Adams.

I hate to be a broken record, but is Jace really an addition when Aaron doesn't utilize TEs?  At best, he's break-even.  

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16 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Honestly, not too worried.  If Aaron Rodgers can't produce with MVS, ESB, and Moore, then maybe he's not as good as we think he is.  I don't think that's the case, but the point still remains that Rodgers shouldn't need All Pro receivers to be successful.  Either way, the Packers went about it the right way IMO.  They took big, athletic WRs with strong tools and put them in a position to succeed.

Agreed.  He's made middling receivers look good for years...James Jones and Greg Jennings, case in point.  When they went elsewhere, they weren't very good.  It's why Donald Driver was smart to stay in Green Bay as long as he did.  

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Since this seems a division rivals thread, my thoughts.

1) Detroit bombed. You don't take a TE top ten [again too]. I feel bad for Detroit fans. I cringed at that pick. Wish they'd have traded with Atlanta for a three. Something at least.

2) Chicago wasted three picks on RBs (and some future). I couldn't believe that tbh. They are  all in now, except Drew Brees is not their QB in his last year. HaHa is going to replace Amos??!! Drafts are about the future, not present need. Seattle wasted drafts for years this way, and now are paying the price. Worst draft in the division imo. (And I don't like giving up $$$ & FRPs for players except QB.)

3) MN got similar to worse value and same positions (just my opinion) with their first three picks, as GB did with their 44, 75, and 6th rounder. They did not take advantage of the strength of this draft which was defense. Obviously they had to address OL but it smells of need and some desperation. Reaching imo.  A few good late picks. It might be complacency because of senility in MM, Capers, & TT. 

4) GB had my favorite draft I've ever seen them make. Great fits, nice value, drafted at strength, and almost all picks were targeted which is rare. Also filled all the holes at the same time. Pettine sees Savage as their next Collins and Gary as a Clowney chess piece. Targeted players at value.

 

It's all just on paper now, but this could spell a downward trend in Chicago. Lions gonna be Lions. AR has a huge chip, and the receiving Corp is very solid imo and will be addressed in a better class next year imo. J'Mon Moore is my sleeper.

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12 minutes ago, JaireAlex said:

HaHa is going to replace Amos??!!

If he does, it'll be the 4th time in the last 4 years that a DB the Packers drafted and developed improved dramatically as soon as he left Green Bay.

  • Casey Hayward had a career Approximate Value of 10 after 4 years in GB. He went to the Chargers in 2016, and has a cAV of 29 in the 3 years since, including back-to-back Pro Bowls in 2016 and 17. 
  • Micah Hyde's cAV was 17 after 4 years with the Packers. He's already at 15 after 2 years with the Bills, scoring higher both seasons (8, 7) than his best year in GB (6). And he went to the Pro Bowl last year
  • Damarious Randall had AV of 5, 3 and 5 in his 3 years in GB. Put up a 6 last year, which was also by far his best performance in PFF grading (62.5, 50.2 and 62.7 in GB, then 72.7 in CLE)
22 minutes ago, JaireAlex said:

MN got similar to worse value and same positions (just my opinion) with their first three picks, as GB did with their 44, 75, and 6th rounder.

The Vikings got:

  • a better center one round earlier than Jenkins (who'll play guard for GB)
  • a more complete TE one round earlier than Sternberger (who's more of a Jimmy Graham replacement as a big slot target than the H-back the Vikings were targeting), and
  • a squeaky clean bell cow RB who consistently created lanes with his vision despite poor blocking and finished runs through multiple tacklers instead of Dexter Williams, a guy who was arrested in 2016, served a 4 game suspension in 2018, and has a scouting report on TDN that reads "If it's blocked for him, he usually gets it (he also usually doesn't get anything beyond that, but I digress)" and "Constantly brought down by first contact, regardless of where the defender initiated the blow" and "Rarely makes anyone miss in the open field and shows a startling lack of creativity when he does make his way to space."

But other than that, the value and positions were very similar, I agree.

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I don't like Irv. Hope he proves me wrong. But maybe that's a place for him. Jace is a great fit in GB.

The DB fiascos are on TT, Mac, and Capers. TT signings and non signings were his biggest errors after  keeping MM and Capers too long. Gute's purged that.

 

But simply on the draft, you're convincing me of the value for MN, given the board, fit, needs. 

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8 hours ago, swede700 said:

Agreed.  He's made middling receivers look good for years...James Jones and Greg Jennings, case in point.  When they went elsewhere, they weren't very good.  It's why Donald Driver was smart to stay in Green Bay as long as he did.  

I certainly wouldn't refer to Greg Jennings as a middling receiver, or lump him in with James Jones.

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On 4/28/2019 at 11:15 PM, vike daddy said:

it would have been better if you could have expressed this in crayon.

Hey now, i remember you ripping on me for making this remark a few years ago! 

Ya old fart! 😋

(Of course, you could be making a reference to what I said...)

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7 hours ago, CWood21 said:

I certainly wouldn't refer to Greg Jennings as a middling receiver, or lump him in with James Jones.

Well, he certainly was middling after he came here and played with the piss-poor QBs we've had.  ;)

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19 hours ago, Krauser said:

If he does, it'll be the 4th time in the last 4 years that a DB the Packers drafted and developed improved dramatically as soon as he left Green Bay.

Difference is that Micah, Casey and Randall played under Dom Capers and sucked, then thrived when they got away from Capers. 

Clinton-Dix went to Washington and made the Redskins defense worse. 

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  • 2 weeks later...
On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 1:54 AM, Krauser said:

 

Green Bay Packers
Michigan OLB Rashan Gary (No. 12 overall); Maryland S Darnell Savage (No. 21 overall); Texas A&M OG Elgton Jenkins (No. 44); Texas A&M TE Jace Sternberger (No. 75); Texas A&M DE Kingsley Keke (No. 150); Toledo CB Ka'dar Hollman (No. 185); Notre Dame RB Dexter Williams (No. 194); TCU LB Ty Summers (No. 226)

Gary is a freak athlete but plays a power game as an edge rusher without much in the way of counter moves or bend around the edge. He might do better at 3-tech, but then the Packers already have Mike Daniels (slowing down a little but still solid) at 3-tech. And one of their 2 expensive FA edge rushers, Za'Darius Smith, is similarly limited as a rusher, and put up a lot of his production with the Ravens rushing from inside. The official line for Packers fans is that Gary didn't produce much in college because he was always double teamed, but the PFF guys looked at his grades in single edge rushes against tackles, and that wasn't the case -- he just wasn't very productive, despite his athleticism. 

Gary isn't going to be terrible or anything, but I wonder if he'll be more like a healthy Nick Perry, or an athletic Za'Darius Smith (who the Packers gave, seriously, $16.5M AAV over 4 years after putting up 18.5 sacks in his first 4 years, at the age of nearly 27, with mediocre athletic testing). Gary's main strength will be run defense, where he's a monster. Put him next to Clark and Daniels and they'll be a handful.

Savage is a safety that a lot of people who watched safeties really liked. They need a Harrison Smith or Eddie Jackson, and he could be the guy. Excellent athlete and highly coveted player, first safety off the board. Should be good. 

Jenkins is a C/G who I hoped would fall to the Vikings in the 2nd if they'd drafted a tackle in the 1st. PFF liked him a lot, better than Bradbury based on his charting. The Packers have Linsley at C, so Jenkins will play guard. 

Sternberger is a receiving TE. He's not a freak but he's fast enough, and he's smooth. Good size and length and able to catch overhead in traffic, so he's a red zone weapon too. Basically he's what Kyle Rudolph might've been if he could run better. 

Keke is another power rusher with limited agility, comparable to Jalyn Holmes who the Vikings drafted last year. He can compete at DE and might be a future starter, excellent value if he is.

For the late rounders, Hollman is super athletic, but he'll be a 25 year old rookie whose cover skills are still raw. Summers is an athletic LB who lasted to the 7th round despite excellent metrics, which suggests he's not actually that good at playing his position. I don't know anything about the RB. 

...

The Packers typically value athleticism, and this draft class was no different. But despite drafting a lot of "potential" and "upside" for years now, they've had trouble developing blue chip talent on defense. Dating back 10 years, their only clear hits have been Mike Daniels and Kenny Clark.

They've had particular trouble with DBs, investing a whopping 9 picks in the first 2 rounds on DBs since 2010, in return finding no stars and only one long-term starter who got a 2nd contract in Green Bay (Burnett). It's not necessarily a problem with identifying talent either -- Casey Hayward and Micah Hyde (a 5th rounder, not part of the 9 early picks) both turned into stars, but only after leaving town, and now HHCD and Randall will be starting for other teams. There's been a problem with development and scheme (as well as injuries, and poor depth, etc).

Mike Pettine is supposed to improve that, and the group did make some strides last year. He was retained as the DC despite the coaching turnover -- a very smart move. Much as with Patricia in Detroit (and Zimmer in Minnesota in 2015), year 2 will be telling as to whether Pettine has the Packers on the right track. He certainly has some raw talent to work with. 

But until or unless some of these highly drafted athletic prospects turn into actually good NFL starters, the Packers defense will be better in theory than in real life. Clark is their only clear blue chip player right now. Daniels used to be, but I think his best days are behind him. They added a couple of very good players in Preston Smith and Amos, but their best prime age talent otherwise is try-hard good-but-not-great guys like Martinez, Fackrell and Za'darius Smith. If everything clicks with their young DBs (Kevin King and Josh Jackson outside, Jaire in the slot, Amos and Savage at safeties), they'll have a great secondary. But until then it's more potential than anything. 

 

 

 

I think this is a fair assessment of the draft, etc, with one exception. Hayward was good in GB dating back to his rookie year. His problem was he couldn't stay healthy in GB, which tends to be a trend.

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On ‎4‎/‎30‎/‎2019 at 4:03 PM, swede700 said:

I hate to be a broken record, but is Jace really an addition when Aaron doesn't utilize TEs?  At best, he's break-even.  

Perhaps, but what has he had to work with at TE since Finley? Cook was good connection for a limited time in GB when he was healthy, Bennett was a head case and washed up. Haven't had too much to TE talent to work with after that.

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The reality is he didn't even use Finley as much as he could and should have.  So, the talent that he had at TE hasn't been really all that relevant....that's just an excuse.    

Plus, Cook had his worst year as a pro since his 2nd season in the 1 year he was with Rodgers.  It's no coincidence that he had no interest in returning.  

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1 hour ago, swede700 said:

The reality is he didn't even use Finley as much as he could and should have.  So, the talent that he had at TE hasn't been really all that relevant....that's just an excuse.    

Plus, Cook had his worst year as a pro since his 2nd season in the 1 year he was with Rodgers.  It's no coincidence that he had no interest in returning.  

The reality is the offenses Finley played in we're stacked with pass catchers and he battled for targets. Finley also had some serious/season ending injuries before the career ending injury and missed a good deal of games.

- Cook almost immediately got hurt in GB and only played in 5 games, so yeah that will make you have a poor statistical year. Not his worse though, look at the prior year in STL for example. When he got healthy his connection with Rodgers was pretty well, plus the Dallas playoff game (100+ yards and a TD)

- Cook wanted to return to GB,  his agent asked for way too much money and GB offered Bennett instead and let Cook walk. He actually then visited MN, et al, as a free agent but signed with the Raiders.

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Honestly a big fan of both the Vikings draft and Green Bay's (unfortunately).

Detroit's was very Detroit, but it wasn't by any means bad. If Hockenson ends up being the next Gronk (100 yd receiver and dominant blocker), we won't question them.

Chicago's was very small. I feel like they didn't get the depth they needed, but they're more than talented with their starters.

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