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Golfman

2019 Draft Thoughts

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26 minutes ago, Cakeshoppe said:

I'm not going to claim he was a good player before the injury, but he tore his ACL in his rookie season and it affected his play throughout his second season to the point where he was an injury scratch the final 4 games because of the same lingering injury. I consider that an injury bomb

He went to the Jets in year 2013, his third year in the league and got 11 carries, then out of the league. ACL is 2011 was something people came back from and played well for a long, long time. This is not an injury that robs one of their speed or ability to cut. He never did because he didn't have the talent to be in the league. 

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3 hours ago, Gopher Trace said:

The most convincing explanation is you're not very good (Occam's razor, if you will).

Yes, I re-registered the name Alex Green 20 in 2017 because I was that confident he was going to be great for the Packers. 

That's your simplest guess?

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10 minutes ago, Golfman said:

He went to the Jets in year 2013, his third year in the league and got 11 carries, then out of the league. ACL is 2011 was something people came back from and played well for a long, long time. This is not an injury that robs one of their speed or ability to cut. He never did because he didn't have the talent to be in the league. 

Not everybody comes back the same from that injury.

Obviously he wasn't a good player. That's the point.

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4 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

That's an illogical assumption to make. If you get 2 average starters out of a draft, you had a pretty good draft. Acting like we're pulling 4 starters out of this draft for sure is just wrong minded. 

If you assume you have a 50% chance of hitting on a first rounder, 25% chance of hitting on a 2nd rounder, 10% chance of hitting on a 3rd rounder, and a 5% chance of hitting on anything later than that, we'd expect 1.55 starters out of this draft.

We had two first rounders, a second, and a third. By your logic, we should at least be getting three starters from that group. Personally, I feel optimistic that we will get at least 3 starters out of the draft. What I am saying is that after Sternberger, there's really nobody that I think can make it through their first contract with the exception of possibly Keke. Day 3 was rather mediocre for us IMHO.

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1 hour ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Yes, I re-registered the name Alex Green 20 in 2017 because I was that confident he was going to be great for the Packers. 

That's your simplest guess?

Maybe he IS Alex Green #20! 

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18 minutes ago, Joe said:

What I am saying is that after Sternberger, there's really nobody that I think can make it through their first contract with the exception of possibly Keke.

Were there many guys taken in the 5th round or later by any team you thought were probably going to earn a second NFL contract?  Since pretty much after R4 in any draft you're in "take a flyer on this guy" territory.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

That's an illogical assumption to make. If you get 2 average starters out of a draft, you had a pretty good draft. Acting like we're pulling 4 starters out of this draft for sure is just wrong minded. 

If you assume you have a 50% chance of hitting on a first rounder, 25% chance of hitting on a 2nd rounder, 10% chance of hitting on a 3rd rounder, and a 5% chance of hitting on anything later than that, we'd expect 1.55 starters out of this draft.

 

 

Edited by PACKRULE

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46 minutes ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

Yes, I re-registered the name Alex Green 20 in 2017 because I was that confident he was going to be great for the Packers. 

That's your simplest guess?

 

Why you'd re-register an old name is a separate question.

And the simplest guess to that would be: because you had been using it for some time and it had "stuck."

.... Can't handle not being the smartest guy in the room, can ya? :D

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2 hours ago, Joe said:

We had two first rounders, a second, and a third. By your logic, we should at least be getting three starters from that group. Personally, I feel optimistic that we will get at least 3 starters out of the draft. What I am saying is that after Sternberger, there's really nobody that I think can make it through their first contract with the exception of possibly Keke. Day 3 was rather mediocre for us IMHO.

What exactly are you looking for out of day 3 of the draft?

Last year we had 8 picks from the 4th round on, 3 contributed and one of those is the punter.  MVS, EQ, Scott

2017 seven picks yielded:  Jamaal Williams, Aaron Jones 

2016 four picks yielded:  Blake Martinez, Dean Lowry

2015 five picks yielded:  Jake Ryan, Brett Hundley, Aaron Ripkowski

2014 five picks yielded:  Corey Linsley

 

These are the guys that have started, or played significant snaps for the Packers on offense or defense.  Linsley is playing on his second contract.  Martinez and Lowry are on their way to receiving a second contract from the Packers or someone else.  Williams, Jones, MVS, EQ, and Scott are too early to tell.  There just aren't a lot of 2nd contract guys coming from the 4th round and beyond.  

I skimmed through to the late 80s, and the best 4th and later draft haul the Packers have had was most likely the 4/4 2nd contract 2010 draft of Quarless, Newhouse, Starks, CJ Wilson.

So, if you think we will be getting 1/4 hits out of those picks, I'm not really seeing the problem.

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4 hours ago, CWood21 said:

Stop discussing posters.

I think most people who had that Al Pacino "Scarface" one hanging in their dorm room didn't really understand the movie.

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4th round or later 1990-2017

Jackie Harris, Bryce Paup, Edgar Bennett, Mark Chumura,  Mark Brunell, Doug Evens,  Gabe Wilkins, Dorsey Levens,  Bill Schroeder, Adam Timmerman, Marco Rivera, Matt Hasselback, Donald Driver, Diggs, Kabeer, Taucher, Kampman,  Corey Williams, Scott Wells, Poppinga, John Jolly, Bishop, Crosby, Sitton, Flynn, Lang, Brad Jones, Newhouse, Starks,  House, Lawrence Guy, Daniels,  Bahk, Tretter, Hyde, Lindsey, Janis, Martinez, Lowry, 

 

Thats a little over two starters per year from the 4th round or later. Maybe not as high of percentage as the first couple rounds, but still very important! 9 pro bowlers too, so about one every other year. 

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A lot of those are stretches. Lawrence Guy bounced around the league for years, did nothing here. Flynn and Hasslebeck were backup qbs only. Some of those other guys were replacement level starters too and WTF is Janis doing even mentioned?

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5 hours ago, boratt said:

4th round or later 1990-2017

Jackie Harris, Bryce Paup, Edgar Bennett, Mark Chumura,  Mark Brunell, Doug Evens,  Gabe Wilkins, Dorsey Levens,  Bill Schroeder, Adam Timmerman, Marco Rivera, Matt Hasselback, Donald Driver, Diggs, Kabeer, Taucher, Kampman,  Corey Williams, Scott Wells, Poppinga, John Jolly, Bishop, Crosby, Sitton, Flynn, Lang, Brad Jones, Newhouse, Starks,  House, Lawrence Guy, Daniels,  Bahk, Tretter, Hyde, Lindsey, Janis, Martinez, Lowry, 

 

Thats a little over two starters per year from the 4th round or later. Maybe not as high of percentage as the first couple rounds, but still very important! 9 pro bowlers too, so about one every other year. 

Your math is a little off.  Your range is 28 years. You list 39 players, not even close to two per year.  9 Pro Bowlers in 28 years is not quite 1 every three years.  Just doing your math man.

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2 hours ago, spilltray said:

A lot of those are stretches. Lawrence Guy bounced around the league for years, did nothing here. Flynn and Hasslebeck were backup qbs only. Some of those other guys were replacement level starters too and WTF is Janis doing even mentioned?

Janis and his ST value for a couple years is worth a 7th for sure but yeah that's not a starter. 

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