Are you smarter than our front office v.2019

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

Figured I would post my favorite thread of the year. Time to put your money where your mouth is and post who you would take without the benefit of hindsight.

Take a look at how you did in years past (2018, 2017, 2015, 2013, 2012, 2011, 2009)

Rules of the game:

 No trades unless it has been reported (such as the broncos-Steelers trade) you can choose not to accept however. I.e you can’t make up your own trade (“ I would have gotten a 2020 1st to trade back”)

You can only take players available.

Be honest. If you have a guy you wanted in the 2nd round and he falls to the 4th, take him in the 2nd like you would have.

 

Who would you take at each pick?

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

I would accept the Steelers trade:

#20: I like the Fant pick and stay with it.

#41: Love Dalton Risner. My favorite player in the draft. 

I would not trade up to 42. I like, but don’t love Lock. I think we got good value but I wouldn’t have done it. 

#52: Kahlen Saunders, DL, W Ill. My 2nd favorite player in the draft. Would be able to provide relief at both 5T and NT and side into a starting role year 2.

#71: David Long, CB, Mich: regardless of how the CHJ saga plays out 2 of our top 3 CBS are on the wrong side of 30. 

#125: Ben Burr-Kirven: my 3rd favorite player in the draft. BBK is the same size as the Devins and while he lacks their straight line speed has better short area and change of direction quickness. 

I wouldn’t have made the trade for Watson

#148: I like the Hollins pick we made a couple picks later so I’d slide him in here.

#156: with us taking Hollins 8 picks earlier I’d take a developmental QB to groom as a backup. Clayton Thornton or Easton Stick. Whoever so the better chalkboard skills.

I wouldn’t have traded up in the 6th.

#182: Cortez Broughton, DL, Cinci: reminds me of Wolfe. I think he’s going to develop into a solid rotational guy all along the DL

#222: Preston Williams, WR, CSU: his 40 time killed him, but he was the second best WR in the state last year (I mean shenault was arguably the best in the country so there’s no shame there) great hands, highpoints the ball, crisp routes to get open. He’s the guy that gets 7 on 3rd and 6 every time. 

Edited April 29, 2019 by broncos_fan _from _uk

[Broncofan]

1.10 - QB Dwayne Haskins, OSU (Elway: trade to 1.20 and 2.52 & 2020 3rd for 1.10) - if we stick with the PIT trade, I'd be totally good with Fant at 1.20.  But my evaluation says Haskins is a 1st round QB, so I'm going with that.  Will keep the 4th round pick & 6th as a result, and pass on the 2.52 (that became 2.42 and 4th/6th to move up to get Drew Lock).  Haskins vs Lock.  Gotta walk the walk if I'm talking the talk.

2.41 - OG/OT Dalton Risner, K-STATE (Elway: same) - A+++ pick.   No change, no debate.

3.71 - TE Jace Sternberger, TAMU (Elway: Dremont Jones) - can't have Fant, so I'll take the next best move TE on the board.   Got a lot of Zach Ertz to his game.  I'll take that in a heartbeat, if I have to get Haskins, I can't have Fant, so this is my alternate scenario.  No Dremont Jones, though, but can't be avoided.

4.126 - CB Isiah Johnson, HOUSTON (Elway: trade for 2.42)  - the CB long-term in case CHJ leaves, whether it's now or after 2019.  Love his potential and value. Sternberger / Haskins  / Johnson & Hall vs. Lock / Fant / Dremont Jones / Winfree / 1-year of Dekoda Watson 

5.148 - ILB Blake Cashman MIN (Elway: trade for Dekoda Watson) - an easy no thanks.  Let's get an ILB who can pass-cover and could in fact be a starter after Todd Davis goes. Great fit for Fangio's scheme.

5.156 - OLB/ILB Justin Hollins ORE  (Elway: same) - no objection, and even though he might play inside, I'm going to recognize Fangio's emphasis on great ILB play, and stick with Hollins.

6.182 - WR Emmanuel Hall, MIZZOU (Elway: Juwann Winfree & 7th round pick) - just because I don't want Lock doesn't mean I won't take a MIZZOU player.  For the tier left, great value.  He's not polished, so will need time, but that's why he fell this far.  Offers a very different type of WR than Hamilton / Sutton, too, which helps fit-wise (although route-running / separation isn't his game like it is with Manny Sanders).

7.222 -  RB Rodney Anderson STANFORD - yeah, I know we have Lindsay, he's a stud.  But just in case Freeman isn't cut out for the NFL, why not take a chance on a guy who possibly the 2nd/3rd RB off the board pre-injury?  Plus, he's polished in the pass game.   A 3-down handcuff at Rd7?  SIgn me up.   NOTE:  We're at end of Rd6.  If Anderson goes before we are up, I'll pick again.

EDIT:  10 mins later Anderson goes.  So let’s go PJ Johnson from ARI - 0-tech capable great inspirational story so you know character and toughness are not a concern (appendicitis with rupture took away 1 season cancer another).  The delay to his career are why he’s only got 1 year of tape as a starter.    Flier risk but ceiling is there. 

UDFA priorities - haven't researched it nearly as much, and draft's not over lol.  But if somehow UNC's WR Kelvin Harmon doesn't make it, then by all means let's give him top UFA money and bring him in!  Will add others post-completion of draft (Not quite at Rd7).  Another lottery ticket for Manny's eventual departure.  Would also for sure get a NT candidate like PJ Johnson to challenge Kerr for backup duties behind Shelby Harris.

EDIT: with PJ Johnson going instead of Rodney Anderson picked before 7.122  let’s bring in some WR - Penny Hart, Stanley Morgan Jr.   Hart offers return abilities too.  For DE depth I’d bring in Michael Dogbe from Temple - given a single digit # so you know he’s tough (top 9 toughest guys get that).   Like Dremont Jones needs to add bulk and like Jones great hand fighter and motor. Just not as high as Jones ceiling wise but close.   That’s what separates Rd 3 from UDFA in deep trench classes though.  3-4 more to come later.     

-----------------

I love that Elway's no longer reaching for need Rd1, and he didn't force a pick for Lock early.  And got Risner 2.41.  But I've backed Haskins, can't change that.  So it changes up some necessary parts, and Sternberger is an impact move TE, so that's a great alternate scenario IMO.   The bonus is that we get Isiah Johnson for CB at great value (and snipe the Raiders!), and get Cashman/Hollins to address ILB.

Tons of fun as always.

Edited April 28, 2019 by Broncofan

[OrangeNBlue86]

Glad we didn’t take foster in 2017! I think Elway beat you guys. 

[AKRNA]

23 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

I would accept the Steelers trade:

#20: I like the Fant pick and stay with it.

#41: Love Dalton Risner. My favorite player in the draft. 

I would not trade up to 42. I like, but don’t love Lock. I think we got good value but I wouldn’t have done it. 

#52: Kahlen Saunders, DL, W Ill. My 2nd favorite player in the draft. Would be able to provide relief at both 5T and NT and side into a starting role year 2.

#71: David Long, CB, Mich: regardless of how the CHJ saga plays out 2 of our top 3 CBS are on the wrong side of 30. 

#125: Ben Burr-Kirven: my 3rd favorite player in the draft. BBK is the same size as the Devins and while he lacks their straight line speed has better short area and change of direction quickness. 

I wouldn’t have made the trade for Watson

#148: I like the Hollins pick we made a couple picks later so I’d slide him in here.

#156: with us taking Hollins 8 picks earlier I’d take a developmental QB to groom as a backup. Clayton Thornton or Easton Stick. Whoever so the better chalkboard skills.

 

I wasn't too thrilled when I heard Locks name but the more I think about it the better it sounds. Add Rypien to the mix and we just re-created 1983.

Give Lock and Rypien 2 or 3 years to develop as backups and we could have a very solid 1/2 at QB.

From a FO point of view it also satisfies a really large portion of the fanbase as far as our QBOTF. 

[Scoundrel]

I would have only changed the following

3.71- David Long CB Michigan

Never did the Watson trade

5.148- Kingsley Keke DE TAMU

Kept Hollins if they plan on using him at ILB. If not I take Blake Cashman there.

Traded up with that 6th but taken Kelvin Harmon. 

[jsthomp2007]

Is Hollis a bit tall for an ILB?  

[lomaxgrUK]

Has anyone else been back through those previous years?!?!? Wow ...

I think it would serve as a helpful reminder to people to have a look, and remind ourselves we are far from experts on this 

I don't think I saw an enviable draft in any of the years hahaha.

[broncos_fan _from _uk]

5 hours ago, lomaxgrUK said:

Has anyone else been back through those previous years?!?!? Wow ...

I think it would serve as a helpful reminder to people to have a look, and remind ourselves we are far from experts on this 

I don't think I saw an enviable draft in any of the years hahaha.

yeah, tthe only draft that I think was much better than what the broncos did was when Mac was running the show. And though my 2017 draft was almost as terrible as Elways at least we would have gotten Desmond King.

But that's why I love this thread every year. to paraphrase Mike Mayock paraphrasing Ozzie Newsome: its easy to have an opinion, its hard to make a decision. 

[Broncofan]

2 hours ago, broncos_fan _from _uk said:

yeah, tthe only draft that I think was much better than what the broncos did was when Mac was running the show. And though my 2017 draft was almost as terrible as Elways at least we would have gotten Desmond King.

But that's why I love this thread every year. to paraphrase Mike Mayock paraphrasing Ozzie Newsome: its easy to have an opinion, its hard to make a decision. 

Plus, the other part - this is a hobby for us.   Who don't get the whole info/scouting reports, face-to-face time that the FO has....and for whom it's their full-time job.    The standard isn't are you smarter than....you shouldn't be, given the playing field.  If a fanbase are even close to what the FO is doing results-wise, given the above, that's a major problem lol. 

But it's also a fair way to show the complexity of the job (and why it's tough to just see only the bad, and not acknowledge the good), and it's also a great way to look back, and learn.  Like I said b4, I've only been doing it since 2015, but it's a ton of fun.

Edited April 30, 2019 by Broncofan

[BroncoBruin]

I think with scouting departments, they often can't see the forest for the trees from a football standpoint, but kind of out of necessity.  We are able to solely focus in on the players and their skillsets in a way that it would be irresponsible for teams to because at the end of the day, they're investing millions of dollars into people who are coming to work for them every day. So we drive ourselves crazy thinking how could these teams NOT see what an incredibly gifted football player _____ is and a lot of times we'll be right. But our internet scouting department would be the one that gets constantly burned by horrible personality fits in the locker room, potential alcoholics/drug addicts, and an assortment of other problems that you can't account for watching videos and reading quotes. 

As far as talent projection goes, there's enough info out there for almost any educated football fan to hit on 30% of their "guys", but we all also benefit from that info trickling up from the lowest levels of scouting databases and reaching the media. Let's be honest, we all start building our draft evaluations off of guys we're already familiar with and guys draftniks have built up. Nobody has the time to do hundreds of independent evaluations and sort through them organically.

Edited April 30, 2019 by BroncoBruin

[Broncofan]

 

 

 

 

3

25 minutes ago, BroncoBruin said:

I think with scouting departments, they often can't see the forest for the trees from a football standpoint, but kind of out of necessity.  We are able to solely focus in on the players and their skillsets in a way that it would be irresponsible for teams to because at the end of the day, they're investing millions of dollars into people who are coming to work for them every day. So we drive ourselves crazy thinking how could these teams NOT see what an incredibly gifted football player _____ is and a lot of times we'll be right. But our internet scouting department would be the one that gets constantly burned by horrible personality fits in the locker room, potential alcoholics/drug addicts, and an assortment of other problems that you can't account for watching videos and reading quotes. 

As far as talent projection goes, there's enough info out there for almost any educated football fan to hit on 30% of their "guys", but we all also benefit from that info trickling up from the lowest levels of scouting databases and reaching the media. Let's be honest, we all start building our draft evaluations off of guys we're already familiar with and guys draftniks have built up. Nobody has the time to do hundreds of independent evaluations and sort through them organically.

Sidebar - agree with what you said - but that also applies to the teams, too.  There's just so much tape and media floating around now, it's overwhelming even for a FO.   They haven't matched the scouting department size to match up with the available tape now that games are broadcast (and more in ALL-22 format too) even in smaller divisions.   

That's where advanced scouting metrics help.  They're not a replacement for scouting, but a complement.   I was thrilled to hear Elway started incorporating more of it last year - and then confirmed he was diving in deeper with this year's draft.   It's also why I SMH at GM's like Gettleman who actually go out of their way to dismiss them.  While other orgs suddenly surge up with its incorporation.  No one is suggesting to replace old-fashioned scouting with metrics - but ignoring a tool that's proving to be invaluable is just dumb, and out of touch with the modern scouting needs that we have with so much more tape available to view, and a wider pool of talent sources to potentially evaluate (D-II schools used to be hidden gems without tape readily available).

[AKRNA]

1 hour ago, BroncoBruin said:

Let's be honest, we all start building our draft evaluations off of guys we're already familiar with and guys draftniks have built up. Nobody has the time to do hundreds of independent evaluations and sort through them organically.

Absolutely true. I normally don't look at anybody until April, just let the Draft Guys filter out some interesting prospects. By draft day I doubt if I've watched more than 8-12 guys at most.

Thats why I never play this game. I just don't have opinions on 99% of 'em. 

I do like spending some time after the draft trying to figure out why we picked who we did though.

[BroncoBruin]

Somehow I've never participated in this, for the past decade. Never too late!

As much as I loved Devin Bush, Elway's first two rounds were so well executed in my eyes, I'd roll with Fant at 20, Risner at 41 and Lock at 42.

71. LB Germaine Pratt, NC State (I like the Jones hit but I can find a more well-rounded DL with every-down potential later)

Would not have made the Watson trade.

148. DL Charles Omenihu, Texas

156. LB Justin Hollins, Oregon 

237. WR Emmanuel Hall, Missouri

[The Helicopter]

It's easier to give a GM flack for a bad draft when it feels bad from the start. If this draft turns out to be a meh we'll spin it as it couldn't have been any better that it was.

FWIW, it sure would be nice to have a franchise QB...I like the Haskins/CB route as Broncofan presented.