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Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2019 - Cardinals at 1


goldfishwars

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I would personally put the Steelers at #12 and move Indy and SD up. Still, this is not a bad slot. Part of that is Bush. If he's the sort of difference maker Luke Kuechly became, good enough. He reminds me more of Jarrod Mayo who was supposed to be the soul of the Patriots' defense but turned out to be just a good player. Aside from that, Day three is going to be make or break on the proposition this is a top 10 draft. my money is on close but no cancer stick.

All that said, a less deserving team is still coming and it isn't Carolina. I like but don't love the Burns pick. I cannot argue with the value in Little even with the trade. I am just underwhelmed. Did they do better with their picks than Denver? Like Pittsburgh, I would move them back 2-3 slots, but not enough to make a stink. It's apparent I have a disagreement about one of GFW's top 8.

J

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As always, I really appreciate the breakdown and opinion.

On 5/3/2019 at 4:43 AM, goldfishwars said:

Rashan Gary clearly has all of the athleticism in the world, I just want to see where that makes a consistent difference because there’s not a lot of production to point to with this guy. Combine that with a bum shoulder which apparently needs surgery, I’m not sold on the value at 12 here. He should get excellent coaching at Green Bay which puts a gloss on the pick unfairly or not. Add the fact he was announced as an outside linebacker to the mix and it is all very intriguing, so perhaps there’s a clear plan for how to use him which maximises his considerable gifts. 

I think the plan is to use him in a similar mold to the way the Texans utilize Jadeveon Clowney.  They're going to move him around and put him in a position to succeed.  He'll play some OLB, he'll play some DL, and he might even play some NT in a loosest sense possible.  Mike Pettine clearly had a body type he prefers, and guys like Brian Burns simply doesn't fit that mold.  It'll be interesting to see how much they give him early on, and he'll finally get to see more 1-on-1 matchups than he did with the Wolverines.

On 5/3/2019 at 4:43 AM, goldfishwars said:

The trade up for Savage is far, far from disastrous, but still falls into a ‘did that need to happen?’ category. Obviously there must have been fears he was about to be selected by another team, but it was a deep safety crop and whilst Savage is a lot of fun on tape, I don’t think he was so much fun he separated himself from the crowd enough to justify this move. Sure he’s another athletic marvel, and he plays like a heat-seeking missile on the field. The Packers have spent a lot of high picks on defensive backs in recent years, so maybe they’ve finally drafted a guy they actually like. 

This one's been debunked by Demovsky who already said that the Colts were very interested, and the Ravens happened to trade out of their spot shortly after the Packers made their pick.  The latter might just be circumstantial, but given that the Ravens had a need there it's certainly.  Either way, I'd rather my GM be active and move around to get their guy rather than settling on the leftovers.  They clearly thought that Savage was the top ranked safety, and the best fit for what they want to do defensively so I have no issue with them taking him.  For me, he was up there with CGJ and Nasir Adderly for top ranked safety.  Given how poorly Adderly tested and played at the Senior Bowl, he probably wasn't really on the Packers' radar despite the obvious fit, and CGJ had apparently enough character concerns for a significant tumble down the draft.  Again, I'd rather my GM be aggressive to get his guy, and by 3 of the 4 charts the Packers came out ahead in trades.

On 5/3/2019 at 4:43 AM, goldfishwars said:

I really like the Elgton Jenkins pick-up at 44. He’s a little slow footed, but is so stout and powerful that he just stoned everything thrown at him at Mississippi State giving up a ridiculously low pressure percentage. He could fill-in at center or guard and the Packers should not miss a beat. A good run on picks continued with Kingsley Keke at 150, an easy moving interior defensive lineman who has some upside as a third down pass-rusher. 

Another DB at 185, why not? I didn’t see much of Ka'dar Hollman, but he’s got an interesting story and another SPARQsy late round shot on someone who put up a pro-day line which featured a 4.39-second 40-yard dash, a 38-inch vertical and a 6.81 3-cone. Dexter Williams I didn’t get as a prospect, the Packers are weird with their running back picks – I can’t get a feel for what they like. Williams looks the part, but just goes down on first contact a too easy for my liking. The Ty Summers pick finishes proceedings off, as a moderately well-rounded linebacker whose very good athletic testing did not really match his play speed.

I really didn't think the Packers would draft an IOL this early, but they did.  He's a good one.  He's going to end up at LG sooner rather than later IMO, and he played center his final two years at Mississippi State.  I believe he's played 4 of the 5 OL positions, but realistically he's an OG/C and probably a better one at that.  I think he's going to look better at guard than center IMO.  Kinglsey Keke seems like an interesting interior pass rusher from a sub package.  Not sure he's anything more than that.  That late in the draft, I think you're best at drafting tools and athleticism, so the Hollman pick make sense.  Don't really see anything from Dexter Williams for the same reason you mentioned, and I think their draft grades was done after the Keke pick.

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On 5/3/2019 at 12:07 PM, goldfishwars said:

Nah, the position groups they took in th first were familiar- but the players were a surprise. Not so much Savage, but the trade up to get him. If you mocked that days before the draft, I can't imagine it would have gone down well. 

Brian Burns doesn't fit Pettine's mold, so it wouldn't surprise me if he was off the board for the Packers.  And given how conservative the Packers have been medically, Sweat probably was off the board as well.  Gary was the only EDGE guy there, so it was either take Gary or wait until later.

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On 5/3/2019 at 1:59 PM, BleedTheClock said:

I don’t get the Darnell Savage love. I thought this was a bad draft for GB to be honest. Didn’t really like a single one of their picks until the ND RB. 

People don't like the Savage pick, because prior to the Combine he was a Day 2/3 pick as opposed to a Day 1/2 pick. 

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On 5/3/2019 at 3:05 PM, PossibleCabbage said:

Savage vs. Adderley will be an interesting one to watch since Savage was much, much better in senior bowl practices than the Blue Hen safety.  I think "level of competition" is a real thing for safeties.  Savage is much more my type of safety than Abram, since they already have Jones (who can only play in the box) and Amos (who is fine there).  What they needed was a rangy guy who can play centerfield, and also do other things.  I'm not sure who your second choice is there.

Part of it was the fact that they were using Savage in a man-coverage situation.  And that's not his game.  Adderly can't line up across from a WR and take him out.  He's a guy you leave as a single-high safety, and let him do his work.  But between those struggles, his injury concerns, and his poor testing, he couldn't recover.  He still went 60th, but three safeties went ahead of him.  The Chargers have a hell of a pair of safeties now.

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5 hours ago, CWood21 said:

This one's been debunked by Demovsky who already said that the Colts were very interested, and the Ravens happened to trade out of their spot shortly after the Packers made their pick.  The latter might just be circumstantial, but given that the Ravens had a need there it's certainly.  Either way, I'd rather my GM be active and move around to get their guy rather than settling on the leftovers.  They clearly thought that Savage was the top ranked safety, and the best fit for what they want to do defensively so I have no issue with them taking him.  For me, he was up there with CGJ and Nasir Adderly for top ranked safety.  Given how poorly Adderly tested and played at the Senior Bowl, he probably wasn't really on the Packers' radar despite the obvious fit, and CGJ had apparently enough character concerns for a significant tumble down the draft.  Again, I'd rather my GM be aggressive to get his guy, and by 3 of the 4 charts the Packers came out ahead in trades.

 

Like I said, it was definitely possible teams were interested in taking Savage ahead of Green Bay at 30 – the question isn't whether that was true or not, it's whether he was worth moving up for in he 1st when a really good crop of safeties were drafted in the 2nd round. 

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10 hours ago, CWood21 said:

This one's been debunked by Demovsky who already said that the Colts were very interested, and the Ravens happened to trade out of their spot shortly after the Packers made their pick.  The latter might just be circumstantial, but given that the Ravens had a need there it's certainly.

Safety is one of the Raven's deepest positions. Earl Thomas, Tony Jefferson, Chuck Clark, and Anthony Levine are all starting caliber talents. They are also high on DeShon Elliot, whose Rookie season was cut short by injury. Behind all of that they're also comfortable with CB Maurice Canady's versatility and ability to play safety as well. The Ravens are rich in slot defenders too.

Our biggest need spots were, WR, IOL, and Interior Pass Rush. Needed some depth at EDGE too. From everything I've heard out of DeCosta, Marquise Brown was our biggest target and we got him. We also considered trading up into the 2nd for Cody Ford, and Late 2nd Early 3rd territory to secure Jaylon Ferguson whom the team loved. 

DeCosta made no secret about his desire to trade down and acquire more picks. So maybe the Packer's FO was afraid of whomever would up trade into that spot. Ultimately our phone did ring off the hook at Pick 22, as a bunch of teams were trying to jump the Texans for Andre Dillard. 

My best guess is GB had a super high grade on Savage and simply moved up to get their guy. Can't blame them for that.

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5 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Like I said, it was definitely possible teams were interested in taking Savage ahead of Green Bay at 30 – the question isn't whether that was true or not, it's whether he was worth moving up for in he 1st when a really good crop of safeties were drafted in the 2nd round. 

Would you not prefer your team be active and move up and grab your top ranked safety than sit back and take that second tier safety?  It's clear the Packers felt that Savage was their preferred safety since he was the first safety off the board.  I'd rather my franchise be active and move up the board for their guy than sift through second tier players.  And it's not like they gave up much.  They gave up 2 4th round picks.  By 3 out of the 4 charts, the Packers came out ahead in terms of value.  Value was fine, and they're targeted their guy. I get the reluctance to value a guy who most viewed as a Late Day 2, early Day 3 pick a few months ago in the first round, but usually in that case the draftnik community tends to be a bit behind the NFL FOs.

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1 hour ago, DreamKid said:

Safety is one of the Raven's deepest positions. Earl Thomas, Tony Jefferson, Chuck Clark, and Anthony Levine are all starting caliber talents. They are also high on DeShon Elliot, whose Rookie season was cut short by injury. Behind all of that they're also comfortable with CB Maurice Canady's versatility and ability to play safety as well. The Ravens are rich in slot defenders too.

Our biggest need spots were, WR, IOL, and Interior Pass Rush. Needed some depth at EDGE too. From everything I've heard out of DeCosta, Marquise Brown was our biggest target and we got him. We also considered trading up into the 2nd for Cody Ford, and Late 2nd Early 3rd territory to secure Jaylon Ferguson whom the team loved. 

DeCosta made no secret about his desire to trade down and acquire more picks. So maybe the Packer's FO was afraid of whomever would up trade into that spot. Ultimately our phone did ring off the hook at Pick 22, as a bunch of teams were trying to jump the Texans for Andre Dillard. 

My best guess is GB had a super high grade on Savage and simply moved up to get their guy. Can't blame them for that.

With Milt Hendrickson inside the Packers' FO now, it wouldn't surprise me if he brought some insight into the Ravens' draft plans.  Either way, the Packers felt that getting ahead of the Ravens was imperative.  As for the safeties, the only players who are locked onto that roster is Earl Thomas because of his cap situation.  The Ravens could in theory release Tony Jefferson and create more cap space, but they could line Savage as their nickel corner/3rd safety as a rookie with the idea of eventually moving him over to Tony Jefferson's spot next year, so I wouldn't rule it out.  The reality is that the Ravens traded down 3 spots after the Packers picked for a 4th round pick, which is the going rate.  Odds are they had a slew of players who they graded out fairly similarly at that point.  I don't really read much into comments made about GMs.  They always say the guy they picked was their BPA.

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3 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

With Milt Hendrickson inside the Packers' FO now, it wouldn't surprise me if he brought some insight into the Ravens' draft plans.  Either way, the Packers felt that getting ahead of the Ravens was imperative.  As for the safeties, the only players who are locked onto that roster is Earl Thomas because of his cap situation.  The Ravens could in theory release Tony Jefferson and create more cap space, but they could line Savage as their nickel corner/3rd safety as a rookie with the idea of eventually moving him over to Tony Jefferson's spot next year, so I wouldn't rule it out.  The reality is that the Ravens traded down 3 spots after the Packers picked for a 4th round pick, which is the going rate.  Odds are they had a slew of players who they graded out fairly similarly at that point.  I don't really read much into comments made about GMs.  They always say the guy they picked was their BPA.

LOL. I don't know why you're trying so hard to convince yourself of this..but wow. That would be quite the 1st year plan for DeCosta. Invest 1st Round capital at one of the deepest positions on your team, and immediately have said Rookie cut into the snaps of proven impact players. While also casting aside the young backups you've already developed at the position.

So yea, I would rule that out...

The Ravens traded down with Derwin James still available last year, with a worse situation at safety. Now though, with an even bigger need at WR and an improved situation at Safety. You think it's plausible that they traded down because Darnell Savage got picked? 

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7 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

it was definitely possible teams were interested in taking Savage ahead of Green Bay at 30 – the question isn't whether that was true or not, it's whether he was worth moving up for in he 1st when a really good crop of safeties were drafted in the 2nd round. 

Its tough to make sense of all of the post- draft commentary of who was gonna jump who -  but this is the more relevant question to me:
Was he worth it ?
Check back after the 2019 season, because IF he was worth it, it should be apparent after 19 or 20 games

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I think Green Bay moving up for Savage can be more closely linked to Philly moving up and Indy moving back than what Baltimore did.  While the Ravens did not really need a free safety, the Eagles did and if their last two "first round grades" were on Dillard and Savage, you move up to get the other one once one is gone.  Indy moved out shortly afterwards and ended up selecting two safeties.  Baltimore being involved is mostly "it takes two to tango" thing.

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