Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2019 - Cardinals at 1

[BleedTheClock]

@goldfishwars are you factoring in draft picks that were traded away? For example, do you consider Khalil Mack as part of the Bears draft class & Odell Beckham Jr. as part of the Browns draft class?

[goldfishwars]

9 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

@goldfishwars are you factoring in draft picks that were traded away? For example, do you consider Khalil Mack as part of the Bears draft class & Odell Beckham Jr. as part of the Browns draft class?

Nah, unless they were traded during the draft

[SBLIII]

for reference so far

 

 

Giants 32 32

Bears 31 24

Falcons 30 31

Saints 29 29

Lions 28 25

Bucs 27 26

Cowboys 26 28

Bengals 25 22

 

not outlandish rankings so far. The Bears jump out somewhat. Depends if you rate volume or just the value of where the pick was made. They only had 2 picks in the range where rookies usually make the roster. So coming away with Ridley and Montgomery is pretty good in my eyes.

[PossibleCabbage]

39 minutes ago, BleedTheClock said:

For example, do you consider Khalil Mack as part of the Bears draft class & Odell Beckham Jr. as part of the Browns draft class?

It always seemed weird to me that people would count "trades made before the draft" inconsistently.  Like the Bears traded a 1st this year for Mack, but they also traded their 2nd this year for the pick they used to select Anthony Miller.  Why count Mack and not Miller?  It gets particularly thorny when we're talking about picks acquired/lost for moving up/down in previous years.  Chicago doesn't have a first round pick next year either because of the Mack trade, so do we have to prorate "Khalil Mack is good at football" over two drafts?

IMO Draft grades should always be restricted to "what you did between Pick #1 being put on the clock and  Mr. Irrelevant being announced".

Edited April 30, 2019 by PossibleCabbage

[Texansfan713]

On ‎4‎/‎29‎/‎2019 at 2:01 PM, ET80 said:

You must like Tytus Howard.

yeah i thought for sure the Texans would have a write up already.

[Ozzy]

8 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

Kind of spent a while writing that out

I am aware of that, I still do not believe you showed how they did such an awful job drafting.  Unless you think the players they picked were not at a good value when they picked them and I think it would be hard to argue they valued any player wrongly and at almost all slots they got a steal for where they were picked them.  Maybe if you have an issue with Sample but if so you greatly underrate his blocking ability as do many who barely even know who he is as a player.  

Still no clue how you rate them this low, it is based on what?  Sure you write up stuff but it does not say why exactly you have them so low.  Love to see all these 25 teams with better drafts than the Bengals and why that was the case.  

 

 

6 hours ago, SBLIII said:

Because it's his opinion and also because no team really had an awful draft. When you do these rankings somebody has to be 32 and someone 1 and it's just a personal opinion of GFW who does a great job. The Sample pick really dropped them hard because other than that they had a pretty good draft.

Sample pick, again anyone that does not know how great of a blocker Sample is simply ignored them or did not pay attention to him as a prospect.  Sure it is a little reach where he is at but shows just how good of a blocker he is being picked that high I feel.  Yes it is an opinion but I feel he did not explain why it was a low graded draft.  If it is bottom 7 in the league then it would have to be about the players they picked and I have a hard time finding two bad draft picks, they are arguably all good outside of maybe one and that was the last pick in the draft and a gamble anyway.  

[goldfishwars]

24. San Francisco 49ers

Selections
2. San Francisco 49ers - Nick Bosa  [ DE ] Ohio State
36. San Francisco 49ers - Deebo Samuel  [ WR ] South Carolina
67. San Francisco 49ers - Jalen Hurd  [ WR ] Baylor
110. San Francisco 49ers - Mitch Wishnowsky  [ P ] Utah
148. San Francisco 49ers - Dre Greenlaw  [ LB ] Arkansas
176. San Francisco 49ers - Kaden Smith  [ TE ] Stanford
183. San Francisco 49ers - Justin Skule  [ OT ] Vanderbilt
198. San Francisco 49ers - Tim Harris  [ CB ] Virginia

Picks Heading In
2.
36. 
67. 
104. 
176. 
212. 

Favorite Pick
Deebo Samuel  - Assuming Nick Bosa at 2 was probably the biggest no-brainer in this year’s draft, I have to give kudos for the Samuel pick simply because he was my favorite receiver in this year’s class and I was really hoping the Patriots had drafted him. Potentially he could have got a little lost in the 2nd day receiver shuffle, but clearly the 49ers like his combination of technical skill and competiveness. He absolutely dominated the Senior Bowl week where he was the class of the field, showing off his smooth route running and there’s an extra gear to find in the NFL where he’ll finally have a half-way decent quarterback throwing to him. 

Overview
Firstly this was really hard, we are definitely getting into the realms of teams who still managed to make picks I really love so I’m having to think more about how well teams did against the draft capital they had at their disposal, what value they got at their picks and whether their needs were successfully addressed. I’m not sure the 49ers score that well on the last two points. Heading in they were expected to address the secondary which has suffered from poor health and inconsistent play. That did not happen until the 6th round and for a traitsy corner who has had his own health concerns. Safety was left unaddressed completely. Perhaps, it’s simply a reflection that they feel pretty good about the crop they have. 

Bosa was 3rd on my big board and the top edge in the class, I don’t need to waste too much time on his selection because I don’t have anything to add which hasn’t been said. It’s exactly what they need and teams are going to have their hands full handling what the Niners can throw at them next season. I heard Shanahan talking about the Jalen Hurd pick and it makes sense, he was kind of a wild card swiss-army prospect in this year’s class and he's landed on a team with the kind of creative mind who can help him the most. Time will tell if he proves to be worth the investment, but it’s worth noting that David Montgomery, Justin Layne, Terry McLaurin, Darrell Henderson, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Chase Winovich and Jace Sternberger who were all drafted after he was. 

Mitch Wishnowsky is a punter and he better be a damn good one to go in the 4th round. An Australian native, he now gets to punt-off against fellow countryman Michael Dickson twice per year which is cool. But seriously, he better be as good as Dickson who was taken in the 5th last year. Dre Greenlaw is a linebacker in a bad linebacker class, I honestly would not have questioned it if he had gone undrafted because those later round guys all merged into each other. Kaden Smith was very well liked until he tested very poorly indeed, but there’s stuff to like about what he put out. As ex-Stanford tight ends go, he’s probably more Jim Dray than Zach Ertz. I know nothing about Justin Skule other than his dad is really really high up in the FBI. Does anyone know anything about Justin Skule? I know every other tackle drafted in this damn class. 
 

[goldfishwars]

14 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

Still no clue how you rate them this low, it is based on what?  Sure you write up stuff but it does not say why exactly you have them so low.  Love to see all these 25 teams with better drafts than the Bengals and why that was the case.  

They drafted a mix of low-floor players who will need to do their developing in the NFL and low-ceiling prospects who don't set pulses racing. 

There's definitely a sunnier reading of their class, but I think it's more than reasonable to be sceptical about it. 

Edited April 30, 2019 by goldfishwars

[Ozzy]

1 minute ago, goldfishwars said:

They drafted a mix of low-floor players who will need to do their developing in the NFL and low-ceiling prospects who don't set pulses racing. 

There's definitely a sunny-side up reading of their class, but I think it's more than reasonable to be sceptical about it. 

I think the draft is more about quality not the flash in the pan picks.  But sure one can find teams who picked more 'sexy' prospects but the Bengals were a substance draft and did not miss on basically any selection I feel, where other teams you have posted already yeah they had a could wasted draft picks potentially I feel or missed opportunities.  The Bengals to me easily had one of the best drafts in the NFL and have few to no wasted draft picks in terms of quality players.  Pratt and Williams will be starters, Finley could be down the road and one of those RBs is going to be a hit no question, and Wren should develop really nicely behind Atkins and learn a ton.  

Obviously we just disagree on that straight out, I think they did a great job and easily was a top 5 draft in the NFL.  

[Daniel]

11 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

I think the draft is more about quality not the flash in the pan picks.  But sure one can find teams who picked more 'sexy' prospects but the Bengals were a substance draft and did not miss on basically any selection I feel, where other teams you have posted already yeah they had a could wasted draft picks potentially I feel or missed opportunities.  The Bengals to me easily had one of the best drafts in the NFL and have few to no wasted draft picks in terms of quality players.  Pratt and Williams will be starters, Finley could be down the road and one of those RBs is going to be a hit no question, and Wren should develop really nicely behind Atkins and learn a ton.  

Obviously we just disagree on that straight out, I think they did a great job and easily was a top 5 draft in the NFL.  

I think I had the Bengals near the bottom too.  Williams is a guard.  I valued him similarly to Lindstrom.  Sample was a reach, Pratt was a pretty quality third rounder, but a third rounder nonetheless, Wren was a good value pick too, I guess.  So in my mind, yall came away with one starter, and at guard, a future mediocre starter, and a rotational DT and TE.

[Ozzy]

1 minute ago, Daniel said:

I think I had the Bengals near the bottom too.  Williams is a guard.  I valued him similarly to Lindstrom.  Sample was a reach, Pratt was a pretty quality third rounder, but a third rounder nonetheless, Wren was a good value pick too, I guess.  So in my mind, yall came away with one starter, and at guard, a future mediocre starter, and a rotational DT and TE.

Jonah Williams could play guard or tackle and either way is easily one of the best lineman in the draft and could be a Pro bowler shortly, has one of the best football minds in the draft I have heard.  And no it is not 'yall', I am not a Bengals fan it is just my opinion based on who they picked, they picked a lot of quality I feel but if you just look at say the first two picks sure it does not really jump out at you.  Again If you do not know Drew Sample is arguably the best blocking TE in the draft then yeah it looks like a bad draft but that kid can play and effect the game without catching a football.  He helps an offense greatly, and Anderson or Williams will become a prime backup for Mixon if not a combination starter with him I feel, people forget about that not to mention Jordan who is a great value.  Pratt could have arguably been a 2nd rounder and physically is one of the most impressive backers in the draft I feel, I really like his game and his athletic ability at that size.  He ran a damn good 40 and is physical put together and developed.  

[goldfishwars]

23. Cleveland Browns

Selections
46. Cleveland Browns - Greedy Williams  [ CB ] LSU
80. Cleveland Browns - Sione Takitaki  [ LB ] BYU
119. Cleveland Browns - Sheldrick Redwine  [ S ] Miami
155. Cleveland Browns - Mack Wilson  [ LB ] Alabama
170. Cleveland Browns - Austin Seibert  [ K ] Oklahoma
189. Cleveland Browns - Drew Forbes  [ OT ] Southeast Missouri State
221. Cleveland Browns - Donnie Lewis Jr.  [ CB ] Tulane

Picks Heading In
49. 
80.
119. 
144.
155. 
170. 
189. 
221. 

Favorite Pick
Greedy Williams – The Browns went up to snag themselves the most talented corner in the class at the cost of a 5th rounder and he could immediately start opposite Denzel Ward which is what they should want to happen. And it should happen, providing his questionable work ethic doesn’t get in the way and the fact he’s a very good press man corner going onto, what is likely to be, a zone-heavy defense with Steve Wilks taking over duties in Cleveland. Regardless, this is potentially great value here if the coaching staff and locker-room are strong enough to keep him interested. 

Overview

The Browns entering a draft with very few needs is literally a sentence I never thought I would write or a thought that might pop into my head. They’ve been terrible forever, every little glimmer of light in the last decade has been blocked up within microseconds. They’re literally called the Browns, for the love of God – they’re not even supposed to be good. What is happening? They can’t be good. They’re good aren’t they? It was difficult to make a splash after a splashy free agency period which saw them part their 1st rounder for OBJ, but they should be pretty happy with the haul they put together. 

If we’re comparing larger than the modern-day average South Sea Island linebackers, then Sione Takitaki  would be my preferred choice over Jahlani Tavai – unless he’s already 60 years old. You can never tell with BYU prospects. Like Tavani, Takitaki is big and can do a little bit of everything including rushing from the edge, a skillset not dissimilar to Genard Avery’s who played well in his first season. Sheldrick Redwine was sort of in that second tier of safeties once all the 2nd round value guys had been taken, but he was firmly in the top tier of names in this year's draft class. He’s a corner convert with some pretty eye-popping looking athletic numbers, who was a bit of a character and special teams ace at Miami. 

Mack Wilson seemed to lose that Alabama glow as soon as he declared and people were begging for him to leave. It’s rare to see a Crimson Tide prospect at the position fall further than originally expected, but it’s probably where his value was all along as he’s never fully delivered on his promise. There’s still plenty of room for him to develop, even if another year at school might have been a good idea in retrospect. A 5th round kicker was selected with their next pick, a player who has only made 1 kick over 50 yards in his career (1/3). I’ll just leave that there. 

A late round pick on Drew Forbes probably isn’t going to put immediate pressure on the starting tackles, neither of whom are sure bets to end the year as such. There’s stuff to like about Forbes though, who has some development potential and might move to guard to provide some depth there. Donnie Lewis rounds off the class and I don’t have a developed opinion about him. He’s played safety, plus boundary and slot corner at Tulane, so perhaps that versatility comes in useful. 

[goldfishwars]

57 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

I think the draft is more about quality not the flash in the pan picks.  But sure one can find teams who picked more 'sexy' prospects but the Bengals were a substance draft and did not miss on basically any selection I feel, where other teams you have posted already yeah they had a could wasted draft picks potentially I feel or missed opportunities.  The Bengals to me easily had one of the best drafts in the NFL and have few to no wasted draft picks in terms of quality players.  Pratt and Williams will be starters, Finley could be down the road and one of those RBs is going to be a hit no question, and Wren should develop really nicely behind Atkins and learn a ton.  

Obviously we just disagree on that straight out, I think they did a great job and easily was a top 5 draft in the NFL.  

That's cool man - these things are highly subjective. Like I said, can definitely see how the Bengals draft could turn out nicely. 

[Scoundrel]

To be fair he said way too early rankings 

[SmittyBacall]

1 hour ago, Ozzy said:

I think the draft is more about quality not the flash in the pan picks.  But sure one can find teams who picked more 'sexy' prospects but the Bengals were a substance draft and did not miss on basically any selection I feel, where other teams you have posted already yeah they had a could wasted draft picks potentially I feel or missed opportunities.  The Bengals to me easily had one of the best drafts in the NFL and have few to no wasted draft picks in terms of quality players.  Pratt and Williams will be starters, Finley could be down the road and one of those RBs is going to be a hit no question, and Wren should develop really nicely behind Atkins and learn a ton.  

Obviously we just disagree on that straight out, I think they did a great job and easily was a top 5 draft in the NFL.  

Meh. I thought it was an okay haul. I wasn’t blown away by any means, so I don’t mind OPs ranking.

I liked the Jonah pick. Pratt should be a solid but unspectacular starter sooner than later. Finley is backup material. Wren has a long way to go, but the tools are there. The Sample pick was downright poor and a weak display at maneuvering around the board. I liked taking a chance on an uber talent like Anderson to get healthy and regain form. If he hits we could have one of, if not the best backfields in football. 

All in all, I was underwhelmed and thought there was better players to be had. I’d be singing a different tune if that trade to move up for Taylor or Ford came to fruition. We came into the draft looking to upgrade the offensive line and add some athleticism/talent to the LB room. I think we only accomplished one of those things.