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Goldfish's Way Too Early Draft Rankings 2019 - Cardinals at 1


goldfishwars

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2 hours ago, RaidersAreOne said:

I also think people are sleeping on Abram. He isn't just a pure in box S. I saw him cover TE's decently. 

Thing is, I consider "covering TE's" to be part of the duty of an "in-box safety".  Not necessarily carrying them deep without passing them off, but you don't often get a ton of teams sending the TE's on corner, post, and flag routes, let alone sending them on 9-routes unless they're split off into the slot pre-snap.  And the issue for me with Abram is where his shows the most fluidity when covering routes is when guys try to take him deep and he can utilize his long-speed by just flipping his hips and running alongside a receiver.  I've watched good TE's (which he's going to find, at minimum in every AFC West game, if not most NFL games) regularly find separation from him working intermediate and crossing routes that he wasn't able to pass off to a linebacker.

Range, or lack thereof, is the trait that I don't see a great deal of in Abram, which I believe is what @goldfishwars is referring to. He's an extremely linear player.  Oh, he'll absolutely get downhill in a hurry, but his sideline to sideline range is something I'm not even sure I'd describe as average, he's not terribly instinctive (and instincts, for me personally, are an absolute MUST for taking any safety in the first two rounds), and, at least from what we've seen on tape, his ball skills are non-existent.  To me, he's a Calvin Pryor clone with lesser instincts and I felt Pryor was overhyped and the league has tended to pass safeties like that by.

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The Chiefs were not going to address every position needing improvement, but they did address the major depth issues. Contrary to some opinions, LB is not a pressing issue. MLB will likely be Anthony Hitchens who is better suited to this role than ILB, Reggie Ragland and Dorien o"Daniel head a number of warm bodies that can fill the other spots. CB would have been nice but a deep cover safety also helps a lot. It is also important to consider the 1st round pick went to rent Frank Clark, a stud DE in the prime of his career. Not much on Fenton though he looks the part. Regardless, the defense was well serviced.

The thing to remember about Mecole Hardman is that he is new to his position. He is a converted DB who did not play WR at all in high school. There is a lot of upside plus he can play PR and gunner immediately. He seems another of the Desean Jackson/Jeremy Maclin line that Reid has produced. The other interesting pick for the offense is Nick Allegretti. The reason he was available in the 7th round is that he is physically limited and has little upside. What he brings is outstanding intelligence, Big 10 OL technique, and experience at C. I don't expect a star he may start immediately at C. Thompson is another possible ST hammer plus the possible situational RB. Though not large, he makes his yards up the gut and as a receiver.

Given the picks they had to work with, this looks like a very solid draft--a star in rd #1, three solid rotation players on day two. and useful parts on day three.

J

Edited by onejayhawk
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19. Jacksonville Jaguars

Image result for josh allen jaguars


Selections
7. Jacksonville Jaguars - Josh Allen  [ DE ] Kentucky
35. Jacksonville Jaguars - Jawaan Taylor  [ OT ] Florida
69. Jacksonville Jaguars - Josh Oliver  [ TE ] San Jose State
98. Jacksonville Jaguars - Quincy Williams  [ LB ] Murray State
140. Jacksonville Jaguars - Ryquell Armstead  [ RB ] Temple
178. Jacksonville Jaguars - Gardner Minshew  [ QB ] Washington State
235. Jacksonville Jaguars - Dontavius Russell  [ DT ] Auburn

Picks Heading In
7.
38. 
69. 
98.
109. 
178.
235. 

Favorite Pick 
Josh Allen – I mean, not a no-brainer pick because not many brains were predicting Josh Allen to land at their feet. But the fact he was and the fact they did not stick with their (apparent) plan to select TJ Hockenson means the Jaguars land themselves a really good first round pick which is something that hasn’t happened very often. I love what Allen could be on this Jags scheme which will give him the opportunity to line up in quirky alignments, drop into coverage and do a bunch of stuff that his almost unfathomable skill-set can deliver. Getting an extra pass-rusher was a sneaky need for the Jags and they’ve landed an exceptional, flexible talent here.

Overview
Man, the party kind of ran out of steam early on this haul. This was heading for a potential all-timer, but instead it’s kind of really great at the top and a little ‘I’m not sure about this’ after there. But still, if those top two pan out, then everyone should be happy. I was personally mocking Jawaan Taylor to the Jags at 7, I love that fit for this offense – just get a long-armed man mover on the right side and let him maul dudes. It’s rare to land a guy your team needs exactly. You’ve got to take the fall and knee situation into consideration, apparently it could be as bad as a one contract deal. We kind of heard that with Myles Jack, so we will see. 

A lot of people liked Josh Oliver as a prospect, personally I wouldn’t have drafted him over the next three tight ends off the board and the last one of those (Dawson Knox) went almost 30 picks later. That’s not to say he wasn’t expected to go in this kind of range, there was always that chance because he’s a naturally gifted athlete who can consistently threaten the seam which is always nice to have at that position. I’m surprised the Jags like him, because he doesn’t block anybody and plays the position very much like the wide receiver convert he is. The Quincy Williams pick, I mean – has anyone found out who this guy is? The linebacker class was very much pick-your-poison after the Devins were off the board, but this might be taking that a little far. I know he’s 5’11 and 220, which light for a linebacker and that he’s Quinnen Williams’ older brother, but really none of this stuff is makes any sense especially that last part.   

Man, Ryquell Armstead was the most Jags running back they could have possibly selected. A chunky chain-moving back who probably isn’t a factor in the passing game, I feel like we’ve seen this movie before. He’s a nice fit as a one-cut runner, decisive and has good contact balance. There’s not a lot of subtlety to his game, but that’s obviously not a requirement there in Jacksonville. Gardner Minshew is a kind of a weird prospect at QB, a jittery playmaker who is kind of the Hunter Renfrow of quarterbacks in that if you were to draw a quarterback he would not look anything like Gardner Minshew, and you would not name the dude in that drawing Gardner Minshew. I like the Dontavius Russell pick late, there’s nothing subtle about his game either – just a difficult guy to move on the middle of a defense. 
 

Edited by goldfishwars
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7 hours ago, PossibleCabbage said:

I'm really just not sure what you do with Abram when you have Karl Joseph in house, except "stop the run" an "play a lot of big nickel".  Whole bunch of safeties in the draft look better next to Joseph than Abram does.

Yeah I was wondering that, Abram on paper is almost exactly what Joseph was advertised as. Guenther loves to play at least one safety tracking deep, so something isn't quite meshing there. 

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On 4/30/2019 at 4:14 PM, goldfishwars said:

Heading in they were expected to address the secondary which has suffered from poor health and inconsistent play.

Not really true. Many fans would have hoped for it, but it was no surprise to most 49ers' fans that top resources would not be thrown towards the secondary. They really seem to love the players already on the roster. Most do not agree with the F/O gambling of injury risks or assumptions for improvement in others. Are they right or wrong, we'll see. 

Bosa was no-brainer, and I like Samuel enough, but the durability is yet another risk.

The rest of their draft is disappointing, and in some cases, lol/wtf. 

Bosa + Samuel - animated-smileys-score-cards-09.gif                 

The rest of the draft - animated-smileys-score-cards-03.gif

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14 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

who turned out to be a player absolutely nobody would have guessed would go at four overall. I mean, I thought I liked Clelin Ferrell – but I wasn’t going to spend a top five pick on the dude, especially after he didn’t even run near a single cone this draft season. And that’s why most people had him slipping to the late teens, the twenties or even out of the first round altogether. Those questions about his athleticism weren’t going to get an answer so every scenario about where he might land seemed plausible except this one.

Wrong. 

The athleticism, while not elite, was already answered ON TAPE in his time for Clemson. This is why Mike Mayock smirks at the sheeple. We the fans get so stuck on what the mass majority of Big Boards look like over months/weeks... so enough sites have a player in this range? the sheeple fall right in line. 

I love the Draft, and love the events leading up to it and after. All the drill results are fun, and can be helpful... but nothing beats watching the players actually play. Ferrell had no business falling out of the top 10.. and while he may be a safe pick that lacks elite athleticism... he's a gamer that has more balanced assets than most. 

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6 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Wrong. 

The athleticism, while not elite, was already answered ON TAPE in his time for Clemson. This is why Mike Mayock smirks at the sheeple. We the fans get so stuck on what the mass majority of Big Boards look like over months/weeks... so enough sites have a player in this range? the sheeple fall right in line. 

I love the Draft, and love the events leading up to it and after. All the drill results are fun, and can be helpful... but nothing beats watching the players actually play. Ferrell had no business falling out of the top 10.. and while he may be a safe pick that lacks elite athleticism... he's a gamer that has more balanced assets than most. 

Wait, I'm wrong about me not spending a top five pick on Clelin Ferrell? Literally me?

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18. Denver Broncos 

Image result for broncos noah fant


Selections
20. Denver Broncos  -  Noah Fant  [ TE ] Iowa
41. Denver Broncos  -  Dalton Risner  [ OT ] Kansas State
42. Denver Broncos  -  Drew Lock  [ QB ] Missouri
71. Denver Broncos  -  Dre'mont Jones  [ DT ] Ohio State
156. Denver Broncos  -  Justin Hollins  [ EDGE ] Oregon
187. Denver Broncos  -  Juwann Winfree  [ WR ] Colorado
 Denver Broncos  -  2020 3rd Round Pick    Pittsburgh Steelers

Picks Heading In
10.
41.
71.
125.
148.
156.
182.
237.

Favorite Pick
Dalton Risner – I think he’s an absolute steal here at 41. Risner is a smart, versatile and tough lineman who could start at center, guard or right tackle on this Denver offense. He had a dominant week at the Senior Bowl, putting a lot of toughness questions to bed with a series of 1-on-1 wins and teamed up to form an impenetrable duo next to Chris Lindstrom in the game itself. Given that all happened recently, it’s weird to see him this low down and it’s really smart of Elway to scoop him up given their needs on the offensive line. 

Overview
I feel like we’ve hit a whole new part of the rankings where there’s very little to separate a log-jam of teams, the Broncos could easily be higher on my list – I suspect they’re very high on other’s rankings and I would suspect that comes down to whether a particular ranker likes Drew Lock and/or Dre’Mont Jones or not. It’s quite interesting they went into the draft with 8 picks, traded back (which I liked) from 10 and ended up making only 6 selections leaving some pre-draft needs at certain positions going unaddressed. Yet, there is still a lot to like about this draft – including next year’s 3rd they got from Pittsburgh which seemed like a rare good trade for both parties.

I’m not overly wild about the value of Fant at 20, even if he was expected to go in that range. But, that pick definitely makes the most sense on a Rich Scangarello offense which presumably has Joe Flacco starting. Fant has transformative athletic potential and is a better blocker than given credit for. Some teams have found it difficult to get their uber athlete tight ends on the field early in their careers, so we’ll see what happens there. Drew Lock and John Elway’s Denver Broncos were like two slowly moving forces pulled together by some mysterious magnetic force. Some things are just meant to be and I love the value of getting Lock at 42, rather than the 10 slot he was regularly mocked in, even if they gave up three picks this year to get him. It doesn’t make them tied to him which is good – because he’s both very talented and reckless right now. 

Dre'mont Jones was getting first round hype before he measured and weighed in quite a bit smaller than expected and then somehow tested way less than expected. That explosiveness was his calling card on film and that’s a bit of a question now, unfairly or not. He was not a good run defender at Ohio State, but perhaps can give the interior pass-rush a boost in Denver. Justin Hollins was the defensive MVP at the Senior Bowl, he’s got some natural ability as a pass-rusher – but isn’t someone built for a heavy workload right now. There are rumors he might transition to off-ball. Juwann Winfree was not on my radar at all and there was a surprise trade-up to get him considering a whole bunch of more heralded receivers ended up not getting drafted at all. Perhaps lightning strikes twice two years running by picking up a local guy with some traits to like. 
 

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14 hours ago, goldfishwars said:

 

Wait, I'm wrong about me not spending a top five pick on Clelin Ferrell? Literally me?

And that’s why most people had him slipping to the late teens, the twenties or even out of the first round altogether. Those questions about his athleticism weren’t going to get an answer so every scenario about where he might land seemed plausible except this one.

Maybe you are being cute, dunno. Your comment below the bold ^ was clearly what I was suggesting you are wrong about. 

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10 minutes ago, oldman9er said:

Maybe you are being cute, dunno. Your comment below the bold ^ was clearly what I was suggesting you are wrong about. 

What is he wrong about exactly? Ferrell didn't test. Nothing about his athleticism, apparent on tape or not, was objectively timed and confirmed. Some teams want that reassurance before making a monumental investment in a player, others don't. There's reason to believe leaving that proverbial "box" unchecked could negatively affect his draft stock. 

Also, let's not act like the league valued and drafted Ferrell at 4. The Raiders did - one team. And just because one team valued Ferrell that high doesn't prove the draftniks wrong or make us "sheeple" for thinking he could have been drafted later.

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25 minutes ago, SmittyBacall said:

What is he wrong about exactly? Ferrell didn't test. Nothing about his athleticism, apparent on tape or not, was objectively timed and confirmed. Some teams want that reassurance before making a monumental investment in a player, others don't. There's reason to believe leaving that proverbial "box" unchecked could negatively affect his draft stock. 

Also, let's not act like the league valued and drafted Ferrell at 4. The Raiders did - one team. And just because one team valued Ferrell that high doesn't prove the draftniks wrong or make us "sheeple" for thinking he could have been drafted later.

Yeah.  I liked Ferrell, but I thought his comp was Derrick Morgan, a guy who will be great sealing the edge against the run, and netting 7-10 sacks a season.  While that's valuable, it's not top 5 valuable, and most people seemed to like Ferrell less than me.  Teams were able to work him out, so maybe he did test well, he just didn't do it at the combine for whatever reason.  In my mind, he was definitely a reach, and the Raiders did not get the most bang for their buck with an insane amount of draft capital.

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1 hour ago, oldman9er said:

Maybe you are being cute, dunno. Your comment below the bold ^ was clearly what I was suggesting you are wrong about. 

No idea why you're so mad. 

Saying I wouldn’t draft a pass-rusher top five with a bad or no athletic profile isn’t exactly bold and it’s not ‘sheeple’ group-think to think that might have caused him to be taken a little later. It’s exactly what the NFL has done in the past 10 years, they’ve drafted those guys later. Some pan out, some don’t – but it’s a fact that the majority of successful pass-rushers in the NFL have passed an athletic threshold for the position. 

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Just now, goldfishwars said:

No idea why you're so mad. 

Saying I wouldn’t draft a pass-rusher top five with a bad or no athletic profile isn’t exactly bold and it’s not ‘sheeple’ group-think to think that might have caused him to be taken a little later. It’s exactly what the NFL has done in the past 10 years, they’ve drafted those guys later. Some pan out, some don’t – but it’s a fact that the majority of successful pass-rushers in the NFL have passed an athletic threshold for the position. 

Not mad at all. I like your overall efforts here. Just giving my reasons and opinion for why Ferrell is some "surprise reach" that so many thought. 

Have a good one. 

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