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Karnage84

EARLY DRAFT GRADES FOR THE 2019 CLASS

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7 hours ago, Sllim Pickens said:

My guess is we will move on like we did Ebron because no TE is worth $10M a year. So its pretty much a 4 year deal, and TE's tend to take the longest to adapt so, we might get 2 decent years out of him.

Lol, the things people say.

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I grade us a B+

Stuck to our plan, filled holes, got a potential steal late in Amani. 

Hock - B - I'm not a fan of TE, but missing on first rounders crushes you and Hock will be a nice solid double. 

Tavai - C - He's everything Patricia wants in a LB,  but non athletic LBs scare me still. Also some injury history. 

Harris - A - Played for our DC, captain of a good d with talented players, first 4.4 speed safety we've had in a while, plus athleticism overall, clear upgrade/replacement for Wilson

Bryant - Not a huge fan, but his athleticism, length and strength are what we look for on the edge. He'll set the edge at the least. REminds me of Romeo

Amani - Was my CB1, 23 overall

Late picks - Took fun swings here.  T. Johnson gives the backfield speed it lacks, plus has KR ability. PJ makes sense behind Snacks, the WR has a ton of upside and Nauta is a perfect blocking TE for this O. None likely break out and become stars, all have a potential role. 

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On ‎4‎/‎28‎/‎2019 at 1:01 PM, Superduperman said:

Looking at the overall draft, it's not terrible and you can at least see the reasoning. Five years ago I would have said this was a positive in the wake of the Millen years where there was no discernible plan. But now I feel like that isn't good enough.

I see guys here who have reasonable shots at being starters 2 or 3 seasons from now. That doesn't do it for me. I'd go into the reasons why the Lions should be settling for nothing less than immediate impact, but you all know what they are. I see very little immediate impact here.

The 3-4-5 picks all seem pretty good. Much like Hand last year, I can see Bryant being the guy from this draft that does the most this season. 

Most of all, it occurs to me that the Lions are like a college football program, say Stanford, that only takes guys on a certain level academically, and as a result limits their talent pool and will never compete for a championship. That's fine if you want to accept that limitation for your college program, but this is the NFL. Teams that put anything above winning, teams that would rather look good and lose than look bad and win, don't deserve their fans.

17 rookies this past year received starter caliber grades from PFF. 35 second year players. Instant impact is less of a thing than people think. 

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15 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

To be fair, TE was one of the few positions that didn't get to reset the market. Currently Kelce makes 10.3 and that contract is a few years old, so the next top TE will likely get 12 or more. Yes, a DE is still more surplus value, but only if they're good. There are not a ton of DEs out there worth more than 12 mil 

And there are 1 or TEs worth 12 Mil.  There are 18 DEs making over 12.  There are five or six also ready to set the market again as Flowers is the third highest paid DE and is nowhere close to the third best DE in the league.  I would equate Flowers to Trey Burton, who signed for 8 mil a year last year. 

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30 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

And there are 1 or TEs worth 12 Mil.  There are 18 DEs making over 12.  There are five or six also ready to set the market again as Flowers is the third highest paid DE and is nowhere close to the third best DE in the league.  I would equate Flowers to Trey Burton, who signed for 8 mil a year last year. 

Wouldn't that support the argument that the DE position is a place where you can overpay based on the position and not necessarily the player? As a result you're getting less for your dollar as opposed to spending the $10M/year. If we deflate that contract over the next 5 years at 3%, it's only worth $8.6M in today's dollars. That's Ertz money, which is fair market value today IF he can play to that level. If Kelce re-sets the market to $12 or $15, he could be a bargain.

 

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7 minutes ago, Karnage84 said:

Wouldn't that support the argument that the DE position is a place where you can overpay based on the position and not necessarily the player? As a result you're getting less for your dollar as opposed to spending the $10M/year. If we deflate that contract over the next 5 years at 3%, it's only worth $8.6M in today's dollars. That's Ertz money, which is fair market value today IF he can play to that level. If Kelce re-sets the market to $12 or $15, he could be a bargain.

 

I think it supports the argument that a solid DE is more valuable to a football team than the best TE in the league.  To compare against the rest of the positions in football, the only positions in which the best in the league (or even just the highest paid) is paid less than the best TE would be FB, K, and P.  That shows you the importance of the TE position. 

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7 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think it supports the argument that a solid DE is more valuable to a football team than the best TE in the league.  To compare against the rest of the positions in football, the only positions in which the best in the league (or even just the highest paid) is paid less than the best TE would be FB, K, and P.  That shows you the importance of the TE position. 

The data doesn't really back this up though in terms of true value on field. TE Is in the lower tier of positions, but right in the mix with Gs, safeties,slots, off LBs and run stuffing DTs. Its nice to draft from the premium positions, but you need to fill out your whole team at some point and having a great player at any position is always an advantage. I doubt anyone will be pissed in the end if Hockenson ends up as anything between Heath Miller and Gronk 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

And there are 1 or TEs worth 12 Mil.  There are 18 DEs making over 12.  There are five or six also ready to set the market again as Flowers is the third highest paid DE and is nowhere close to the third best DE in the league.  I would equate Flowers to Trey Burton, who signed for 8 mil a year last year. 

Right, but is one of those DEs in this draft? Does he fit our scheme and lack major injury or character issues?

Yes, TEs worth that are scarce, that's why we chose one when we had a chance in large part, the extreme scarcity. You're getting somewhere here.  ( similarly,, paying 9 mil a year for a run stuffing DT is stupid, but when you have Snacks freakin' Harrison, you pay that man heez money!)

Burton would have been a great get for us that's for sure. His contract is clearly out of line with the market just based on past deals and the % of increase alone. 

Flowers was PFF's #2 edge last year, one spot above Khalil Mack ;)

Thank you for coming to my Ted talk?

Edited by Nastradamus

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51 minutes ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I think it supports the argument that a solid DE is more valuable to a football team than the best TE in the league.  To compare against the rest of the positions in football, the only positions in which the best in the league (or even just the highest paid) is paid less than the best TE would be FB, K, and P.  That shows you the importance of the TE position. 

Sure - but there are guys who can also get paid far beyond their value because of the position vs their production.

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17 hours ago, Nastradamus said:

Lol, the things people say.

We didn't re-sign Ebron because he never developed as a blocker, was known for drops and rarely scored. As long as Hockenson is near the top at being a high end blocker and reliable pass catcher, I'd expect the team to be a little more willing to take any scoring production that comes with his role.

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3 hours ago, Karnage84 said:

We didn't re-sign Ebron because he never developed as a blocker, was known for drops and rarely scored. As long as Hockenson is near the top at being a high end blocker and reliable pass catcher, I'd expect the team to be a little more willing to take any scoring production that comes with his role.

I just hope he is better than the last TE to be thought of as a top 15 prospect who is one of the greatest blocking prospects ever in Brandon Pettigrew.  I hope he does well, I just don't count on it because first round TEs never live up to the hype.  Maybe he will be the exception, but I will go with history until he proves me wrong.

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1 hour ago, Sllim Pickens said:

I just hope he is better than the last TE to be thought of as a top 15 prospect who is one of the greatest blocking prospects ever in Brandon Pettigrew.  I hope he does well, I just don't count on it because first round TEs never live up to the hype.  Maybe he will be the exception, but I will go with history until he proves me wrong.

If you do a direct comparison of Pettigrew vs Hockenson, athletically they're in completely different categories

Pettigrew - 6'5, 263 lbs, 4.83 40, 22 reps on bench, 33 inch vertical, 118 inch broad jump, 7.12 3 cone and 4.37 short shuttle

Hockenson - 6'5, 251 lbs, 4.70 40, 17 reps on bench, 37.5 inch vertical, 123 inch broad jump, 7.02 3 cone and 4.08 short shuttle

Hockenson is a much more explosive and agile athlete at the position than Pettigrew. Even if he's 80 - 90% of the blocker Pettigrew was (which might not even be the case), he does offer up a lot more as a receiving threat.

College stats:

Pettigrew (2008) - 42 receptions, 472 yards, 0 TD's

Hockenson (2018) - 49 receptions, 760 yards, 6 TD's

Pettigrew played on an offense that featured Dez Bryant and Kendall Hunter. Outside of Fant, there wasn't a lot else on the Iowa offense.

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The more I look at this class the more I like it.  I think that they did what they wanted according to their draft board.   This was a foundation draft.   Great men who unselfishly sacrfice any and sometimes all notarity for the betterment of their team.  Great draft and there are a few UDA's who could legitimately make the roster. 

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