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2020 NFL Draft Discussion


CWood21

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22 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

I don't think I've ever seen JT get caught from behind? He ran a 4.42 as a HS senior at a combine. He's been begged by the UW track coach to join the track team and he did this year as a sprinter. He's going to be a 4.4 guy, no issues with speed.

Full disclosure, I don't watch many Badger games.  Every time I do...well, bad things happen.  

I did watch a couple last year.  Seemed like he did get caught plenty...if memory serves, they were on angles, though.

I think he's faster in the first 10 yards than his breakaway speed.  And I think his speed will be fine for the NFL.  

In trying to look at  a draft projection for him...well...I guess I'm not sold on that long speed.  The kind of speed that would vault him above pick #15.  That's all I'm saying.  And I can freely admit that I'm no expert or even rabid fan concerning Badger football.

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20 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

I'll bet you he won't be a 4.4 guy at the combine. He will be 4.5s. He has nifty feet, and I think probably elite vision, but I don't think he has elite breakaway speed.

I see him having the best shot of a really nice NFL career (he just looks like an typical NFL back) out of most of the previous WI RBs, however.

D1 sprinters don't run 4.5s, I'd be shocked if he came in that high. Plus as as I said earlier, he ran a 4.42 at an official HS combine prior to any college strength and conditioning work.

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5 minutes ago, vegas492 said:

Full disclosure, I don't watch many Badger games.  Every time I do...well, bad things happen.  

I did watch a couple last year.  Seemed like he did get caught plenty...if memory serves, they were on angles, though.

I think he's faster in the first 10 yards than his breakaway speed.  And I think his speed will be fine for the NFL.  

In trying to look at  a draft projection for him...well...I guess I'm not sold on that long speed.  The kind of speed that would vault him above pick #15.  That's all I'm saying.  And I can freely admit that I'm no expert or even rabid fan concerning Badger football.

My family has had Badger tickets for over 60 years, so I am a bit of a homer.

I watch every Badger game, and the notion that he gets run down from behind is not correct.  You can literally see the play develop to a point where you know he will blow by the last two guys and be gone.  He is a lot faster than James White was, and faster than Melvin Gordon as well.

If I were to criticize him it would be more along the lines of how much of the play is him and how much is from having a dominant O line that opens significant holes for him.  Wisconsin running backs have always benefitted disproportionately from O line play in the run game.

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3 minutes ago, Packerraymond said:

D1 sprinters don't run 4.5s, I'd be shocked if he came in that high. Plus as as I said earlier, he ran a 4.42 at an official HS combine prior to any college strength and conditioning work.

We will see. He doesn't look it on the field to me. But if he has a sprinter's background and focuses on it in the offseason I wouldn't be surprised to see him crack 4.50 at the combine.

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2 minutes ago, Ragnar Danneskjold said:

My family has had Badger tickets for over 60 years, so I am a bit of a homer.

I watch every Badger game, and the notion that he gets run down from behind is not correct.  You can literally see the play develop to a point where you know he will blow by the last two guys and be gone.  He is a lot faster than James White was, and faster than Melvin Gordon as well.

If I were to criticize him it would be more along the lines of how much of the play is him and how much is from having a dominant O line that opens significant holes for him.  Wisconsin running backs have always benefitted disproportionately from O line play in the run game.

Man, if you are saying he's a "plus" to Gordon, them maybe I gotta watch more!

Thanks for commenting.  

When I did watch him, what I really liked was his vision and ability to avoid solid licks in the first 5 yards.  I saw a lot of glancing blows.  And he seemed to break enough arm tackles.

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14 hours ago, Cheech said:

Someone mentioned it earlier, and I'd tend to agree.  I think the priority next offseason should be OT and CB.  

CB, as was stated earlier, just can't find enough.  Pettine will use 'em.  Another 2nd round CB could help ease some worries about King's durability, Jackson's development, and Tramon's age.  

OT, I think we need a dominating run game to run LF's offense.  I'd love nothing more than to see Gute trade up for the RT of the future in TRISTAN Wirfs.  He's solid in pass pro and will move mountains in the run game - mostly because he is one.

2nd tier should be RB, ILB, and TE.  I really hope that Bolton can recover quickly and get a shot in training camp next year at ILB.  We have some young guys that could step up at all 3 of these positions.  At the moment, however, they seem more unsettled.

Not ILB? I have no problem waiting on ILB if value at OL and CB comes first, but we need a solid dime backer at worst out of this next draft unless Burks comes on strong; even then it wouldn't hurt to have a solid back-up. FWIW, Drafttek has Calvin Throckmorton mocked to us in the 1st at the moment. On the other hand, it appears that there are about 4 or 5 guys at the top of both the OT and CB classes before a drop off to early in the 3rd.

RB is deep too, but give me Najee Harris on Day 2 as a ground-n-pound compliment to the other three backs; Jonathan Taylor's speed is fine. He may not be Zeke at the next level, but he'll be a reliable starter as long as he can stay healthy. IOL is a fairly deep class that we should consider as well.

 

Clark needs to be extended immediately before he gets too expensive and we should consider adding to that DL...

 

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On 9/8/2019 at 8:41 AM, Outpost31 said:

Look at the investment Jones has placed in IOL, WR and ILB over the years.  Now look at his team and ask yourself if that's the situation you'd like for us to be in after Rodgers retires or during his final years.  I had to stop to think before I could name a single defensive back for that team.

I would actually argue the value of a high quality IOL has gone up in recent years as a bigger premium is being put on interior pass rushers.

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On 9/8/2019 at 9:04 AM, mikemike778 said:

Re Bulaga, giving players with an extensive injury history multi-year deals on big money is asking for trouble it really is. If healthy then I'd be happy to overpay for a 1 year deal otherwise its probably time.

That sounds fantastic, but that's only really happening if Bryan Bulaga has an injury-plagued year.  And if he doesn't, he's going to get paid significantly.

On 9/8/2019 at 9:04 AM, mikemike778 said:

We should be trying to re-sign Martinez. He is a good productive player coming up to his second contract. You have to get these guys inked otherwise you are forever chasing holes. At some point, the offense needs serious love in the draft, its going to be harder to do that if you don't get the Martinez of this world signed up.

Martinez is absolutely the "must-sign" of this year's FA class, but only up to a certain point.  But they've really shown that they're not willing to invest a ton into the position both via draft capital and through spending.  They're certainly not coming close to the $14.25M/year for Myles Jack.  Probably not even Jaylon Smith at $11.4M.  I think they're coming in just south of what the Vikings gave Eric Kendricks.  Something around 4 years, $38M or so.

On 9/8/2019 at 9:04 AM, mikemike778 said:

If Crosby would take a significant cut - and I mean significant then I wouldn't have a problem keeping him. Otherwise I'd be tempted to chuck a couple of 7th rounders  at your favourite two kickers and keep whoever is best. 7th round is 7th round - our two from last year are off the roster.

Since 2010, there have been 6 kickers taken in the 7th round.  Of those 6, none were on the roster for the team they drafted them 2+ years later.  Aside from the few outliers (Mike Nugent in 2005 and Robert Aguayo in 2016), you're usually going to see kickers come off the board in the 5th round.  If you're serious about replacing Mason Crosby, that's where you start looking to use your picks.

On 9/8/2019 at 9:04 AM, mikemike778 said:

I think its only worth using a pick on a QB if you are looking for Aaron's eventual replacement. And if you are doing that then you are going to have to go early. If he is reasonably healthy this year, I'd be inclined to leave it next year and maybe go for it 2021.

We're probably still a year away from taking a QB.  Maybe you take a mid-round QB as a developmental type, but you're not serious about replacing him just yet.  You're still in a "win now" mode with Rodgers.  Unless someone unexpectedly falls, you're probably not taking a QB early this year.

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15 hours ago, Cheech said:

Someone mentioned it earlier, and I'd tend to agree.  I think the priority next offseason should be OT and CB.  

CB, as was stated earlier, just can't find enough.  Pettine will use 'em.  Another 2nd round CB could help ease some worries about King's durability, Jackson's development, and Tramon's age.  

OT, I think we need a dominating run game to run LF's offense.  I'd love nothing more than to see Gute trade up for the RT of the future in TRISTAN Wirfs.  He's solid in pass pro and will move mountains in the run game - mostly because he is one.

2nd tier should be RB, ILB, and TE.  I really hope that Bolton can recover quickly and get a shot in training camp next year at ILB.  We have some young guys that could step up at all 3 of these positions.  At the moment, however, they seem more unsettled.

Not sure we're spending all that much on CB next offseason, unless Kevin King struggles to stay healthy this year.  Jaire Alexander looks like a star.  Josh Jackson is being brought along, and he looked better this preseason than he did last year.  Ka'Dar Hollman was looking like a steal in our draft along with Kingsley Keke in the preseason before he got hurt, and the Packers effectively have Tony Brown locked up for 2 more years minimum (He's an ERFA this offseason and a RFA the next offseason).  They'll add someone to keep up the numbers there, but I don't anticipate them drafting a CB high.  Probably somewhere in that 3rd-5th round range.

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14 hours ago, Uffdaswede said:

I don’t think Jonathan Taylor will be more than a James White level back. Adding receiving to his repertoire helps. He’s the kind of player you expect to be gone before he reaches the slot the Packers will give him. 

He's definitely better than James White.  I want to see more consistency out of him in the passing game before we establish that he's a strong pass catcher out of the backfield.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

I would actually argue the value of a high quality IOL has gone up in recent years as a bigger premium is being put on interior pass rushers.

It definitely has.  I can grant that.  Absolutely.  Unfortunately, other positions have also inflated in value. 

CB value has increased due to the rule changes favoring passing.
DL value has increased due to that bigger premium on interior pass rushers.
S value has increased for the same reason as CB.
TE value has decreased due to the position evolving less towards blocking and more towards receiving.

So while the value of IOL has gone up, it is still not at the value of these other positions.

Additionally, while interior pressure has gone up in value, there is no quicker way to wreck a game than by an elite EDGE rush, so OT is still more valuable. 

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On 2019-09-08 at 9:41 AM, Outpost31 said:

It's pretty simple to understand, actually.  Some positions should be targeted in round one with certain picks, others should not.  History backs this up with the overwhelming power of hindsight.  I don't care who the prospect is.  The prospect does not matter.  The prospect simply does not matter.  Every single year there are can't miss players, high ceiling, low floor, yadda yadda.  There is no telling even in June how good a prospect will be in his career for sure, so you might as well put an emphasis on positional value and go from there. 

1ST-32nd overall:

QB
EDGE
OT
DL
DB

23-32nd overall:

ILB
IOL
WR
TE


I don’t care what the scenario is, if you’re picking an IOL, WR, TE or ILB in the top 22, you are going to live to regret it.  The higher you pick them, the higher the regret. 

The 2017 draft class will always be remembered as the class the Bengals passed on Mahomes and Watson for a WR.  Same with the Titans.

Look at the 2014 draft class.  Lol. 

Bills picked Watkins over Mack.
Lions took Ebron over Oliver. 

Under zero circumstances whatsoever would I ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever, ever draft an ILB,IOL,TE,WR 15th overall or higher. 

16th seems to be that spot where the exceptions lie.  But for every Jerry Rice, there are 100 Eric Ebrons. 

GMs, believe it or not, are aware of and for the most part believe in this.  Look at the teams who consistently draft these positions and you will see bottom-dwelling teams like the Dolphins, Bengals, Lions, Vikings, Bears... Teams who have not been relevant for 20-30 years.  Also, the Cowboys. 

Look at the investment Jones has placed in IOL, WR and ILB over the years.  Now look at his team and ask yourself if that's the situation you'd like for us to be in after Rodgers retires or during his final years.  I had to stop to think before I could name a single defensive back for that team. 

I would not be so short sighted on positions. We took lots of defensive players with our first pick over the years, Demarious Randall, HaHa Clinton Dix, Datone Jones, Nick Perry, Justin Harrell and took TE Jermichael Finley in the 3rd round. And I would take him over any of those defensive players. Im sure the Packers will take whoever they feel is the best player available, whether its OT, DT, DB or TE. All I was saying is that Albert O is exactly what this team needs IMO. Draft time is usually BPA. Who knows Albert O might turn into a dud, or he might turn into the next Gronk, but just because he is a TE does not mean he is not first round worthy or the Packers should just draft certain positions with their first pick. That is nonsense. 

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2 minutes ago, PackerLegend said:

We took lots of defensive players with our first pick over the years,

A good part of this is (the simple version) is that to win on defense you need talent to win one on one matchups, whereas winning on offense can be accomplished via scheme and coordination.  The best athletes play on the defensive side of the ball, and you need those guys, and the pool of "high calibre athletes" runs out fairly quick.

So sure, you can talk about how maybe we should have drafted different guys, but it would have gone just as poorly if we drafted Tavon Austion or Cordarelle Patterson instead of Jones,; A.J. Jenkins  Kendall Wright, or David Wilson instead of Perry; Phillip Dorsett, Breshad Perriman, or T.J. Yeldon instead of Randall;  Robert Meachem or Craig Davis instead of Harrell; Kelvin Benjamin or Austin Sefarian-Jenkins instead of HHCD,; etc.

Roughly 50% of draft picks won't work out in the first round anyway.

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1 hour ago, PossibleCabbage said:

A good part of this is (the simple version) is that to win on defense you need talent to win one on one matchups, whereas winning on offense can be accomplished via scheme and coordination.  The best athletes play on the defensive side of the ball, and you need those guys, and the pool of "high calibre athletes" runs out fairly quick.

So sure, you can talk about how maybe we should have drafted different guys, but it would have gone just as poorly if we drafted Tavon Austion or Cordarelle Patterson instead of Jones,; A.J. Jenkins  Kendall Wright, or David Wilson instead of Perry; Phillip Dorsett, Breshad Perriman, or T.J. Yeldon instead of Randall;  Robert Meachem or Craig Davis instead of Harrell; Kelvin Benjamin or Austin Sefarian-Jenkins instead of HHCD,; etc.

Roughly 50% of draft picks won't work out in the first round anyway.

Sure it could of gone just as bad if we drafted those other guys, but I think you are missing my point. My point is do not be short sighted in only a few positions with your first pick. Thats where you get in trouble. If you think player a is better then player b but you take player b because he plays defence and player a plays offence is a recipe for disaster. Unless of course player b is a position in need and is rated very close to player a, then that would make sense. I just stated that I like Albert O and think he would be exactly what we need. Thats my opinion who I would like to see on our team. But if the Packers like another player better, then take him. Its not rocket science here. 

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