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2020 NFL Draft Discussion

CWood21

By CWood21
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Shanedorf

Shanedorf

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Bang! said:

Sometimes there is a desire just to discuss why an offensive skill position isn't the best choice at the end of the first this year

Under the Wolf-influenced Packers they've leaned on the concept that you draft the offense so they can all develop and grow together over time. Then use FA/trades and early draft picks on the defense. The idea behind this is the relative size of the playbooks and how long it takes a college dude to assimilate the Pro game - especially in an up tempo offense. Its also a nod to positional value and relative availability in the draft

The Packers aren't the only ones that lean on this concept. Another part of that equation is that the offensive skill players that truly are difference-makers are often gone by the time GB is on the clock ( over the last decade) In that scenario, it doesn't make as much sense to reach for a skill guy. The Packers record on pass catchers in round 2-3 is pretty spectacular, with Adams, Jennings, Jordy, Jones, Finley, Cobb all coming from that part of the draft.

Tough to argue with those results and the MM Packers also leaned on the idea that opponents don't have 4 CBs that can match up with their deep WR crew as opposed to having one guy like Calvin Johnson who tilts the field

Another component; when you have an All-World QB, you don't necessarily need an A+ pass catcher, you can still be successful with others and re-allocate limited resources into other areas on the team. Generally speaking, WRs, TE's and RBs don't matter as much to winning as some other positions, hence the pushback on spending a 1st on them. There isn't much scarcity within the WR ranks either, unlike for other positions. ( Planet Theory)

So there are many reasons why the Packers do what they do and there's an equal number of reasons why fans struggle to accept these NFL strategies and tendencies. 

Take a cruise through this list of the best WR's in league history and count up how many Super Bowl wins they have.
Other than Jerry Rice, its remarkably barren and that offers a hint about the true value of top skill players in winning Titles

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rec_td_career.htm

 

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Fl0nkerton

Fl0nkerton

Posted
Posted (edited)

Just for funsies, I bolded the correctly predicted 1st Rounders from Matt Miller of BR.

Matt Miller's Way-Too-Early 2018 Mock Draft (May 1st, 2017)

  Prediction How'd They End Up?
1 Christian Wilkins, DL #13 Overall in 2019 (MIA)
2 Josh Allen, QB #7 Overall in 2018 (BUF)
3 Saquon Barkley, RB #2 Overall in 2018 (NYG)
4 Connor Williams, OT #50 Overall in 2018 (DAL)
5 Derwin James, DB #17 Overall in 2018 (LAC)
6 Josh Rosen, QB #10 Overall in 2018 (ARI) - Now  in MIA
7 Da'Shawn Hand, DT #114 Overall in 2018 (DET)
8 Sam Darnold, QB #3 Overall in 2018 (NYJ)
9 Arden Key, EDGE #87 Overall in 2018 (OAK)
10 Malik Jefferson, LB #78 Overall in 2018 (CIN)
11 Minkah Fitzpatrick, DB #11 Overall in 2018 (MIA)
12 Derrius Guice, RB #59 Overall in 2018 (WAS)
13 Mike McGlinchey, G #9 Overall in 2018 (SF)
14 Orlando Brown, OT #83 Overall in 2018 (BAL)
15 Deon Cain, WR #185 Overall in 2018 (IND)
16 Mitch Hyatt, OT UDFA in 2019
17 Jerome Baker, LB #73 Overall in 2018 (MIA)
18 Courtland Sutton, WR #40 Overall (DEN)
19 Josh Sweat, EDGE #130 Overall in 2018 (PHI)
20 Martinas Rankin, OT #80 Overall in 2018 (HOU)
21 Marcus Allen, S #148 Overall in 2018 (PIT)
22 Dre'Mont Jones, DL #71 Overall in 2019 (DEN)
23 Tarvarus McFadden, CB UDFA in 2018 (SF, IND, SF)
24 Cameron Smith, LB #162 Overall in 2019 (MIN)
25 Denzel Ward, DB #4 Overall in 2018 (CLE)
26 Quenton Nelson, G #6 Overall in 2018 (IIND)
27 Jaire Alexander, CB #18 Overall in 2018 (GB)
28 Calvin Ridley, WR #26 Overall in 2018 (ATL)
29 Azeem Victor, LB #216 Overall in 2018 (OAK) - Now a FA
30 Mason Cole, C #97 Overall in 2018 (ARI)
31 Armani Watts, S #124 Overall in 2018 (KC)
32 Harold Landry, EDGE #41 Overall in 2018 (TEN)



Matt Miller's Way-Too-Early 2019 Mock Draft (April 30th, 2018)

  Prediction How'd They End Up?
1 Joey Bosa #2 Overall in 2019 (SF)
2 Justin Herbert Returned to Oregon
3 Ed Oliver #9 Overall in 2019 (BUF)
4 Drew Lock #42 Overall in 2019 (DEN)
5 AJ Brown #51 Overall in 2019 (TEN)
6 Jonah Williams #11 Overall in 2019 (CIN)
7 Trey Adams Returned to Washington
8 Rashan Gary #12 Overall in 2019 (GB)
9 Greg Little #37 Overall in 2019 (CAR)
10 Greedy Williams #46 Overall in 2019 (CLE)
11 Dexter Lawrence #17 Overall in 2019 (NYG)
12 Clelin Ferrel #4 Overall in 2019 (OAK)
13 Mitch Hyatt UDFA in 2019 (DAL)
14 Clayton Thorson #167 Overall in 2019 (PHI)
15 Deandre Baker #30 Overall in 2019 (NYG)
16 Joe Jackson #165 Overall in 2019 (DAL)
17 Shea Patterson Returned to Michigan
18 Michael Jackson #158 Overall in 2019 (DAL)
19 Collin Johnson Returned to Texas
20 Josh Allen #7 Overall in 2019 (JAX)
21 Jeffery Simmons #19 Overall in 2019 (TEN)
22 Nick Fitzgerald UDFA in 2019 (TB)
23 Sam Beal Drafted in 3rd Rd in 2018 (NYG)
24 Deebo Samuel #36 Overall in 2019 (SF)
25 Terrell Lewis Torn ACL in Aug'18 - Returned to Alabama
26 Ahmmon Richards Forced to Retire from Football - Neck 
27 Austin Bryant #117 Overall in 2019 (DET)
28 Christian Miller #115 Overall in 2019 (CAR)
29 Montez Sweat #26 Overall in 2019 (WAS)
30 Christian Wilkins #13 Overall in 2019 (MIA)
31 Michael Dieter #78 Overall in 2019 (MIA)
32 Ryan Fiinley #104 Overall in 2019 (CIN)

 

 

Matt Miller's Way-Too-Early 2020 Mock Draft (April 29th, 2019)

 

          Prediction
1 Chase Young, EDGE (OSU)
2 Walker Little, OT (Stanford)
3 AJ Epenesa, EDGE (Iowa)
4 Jake Fromm, QB (Georgia)
5 Andrew Thomas, OT (Georgia)
6 Grant Delpit, S (LSU)
7 Jerry Jeudy, WR (Bama)
8 Tua Tagovailoa, QB (Bama)
9 Dylan Moses, LB (Bama)
10 Tee Higgins, WR (Clemson)
11 Derrick Brown, DL (Auburn)
12 Laviska Shenault, WR (Colorado)
13 Justin Herbert, QB (Oregon)
14 CeeDee Lamb, WR (Oklahoma)
15 Raekwon Davis, DL (Bama)
16 Trevon Diggs, CB (Bama)
17 K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE (LSU)
18 Henry Ruggs, WR (Bama)
19 Terrell Lewis, EDGE (Bama)
20 CJ Henderson, CB (Florida)
21 Jacob Eason, QB (Washington)
22 *Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR (Michigan)
23 Colby Parkinson, TE (Stanford)
24 Anfernee Jennings, EDGE (Bama)
25 Jaylon Johnson, CB (Utah)
26 Trey Adams, OT (Washington)
27 Richard LeCounte, S (Georgia)
28 Tyler Biadasz, C (Wisconsin)
29 Kenneth Murray, LB (Oklahoma)
30 Travis Etienne, RB (Clemson)
31 Paddy Fisher, LB (Northwestern)
32 Kenny Willekes, EDGE (Michigan State)

 


*He has us taking Donovan Peoples-Jones at 22 Overall.

Edited by Fl0nkerton
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Joe

Joe

Posted
Posted

Drafttek just launched their 2020 big board. I have us drafting 28th overall; we lose to the Rams in the NFCG after upsetting the Bears on the road. Just a fun quick mock.

1(28): Isiahh Loudermilk, EDGE/DL, Wisconsin: both top TE's are off the board in a fairly deep class. With Fackrell probably moving on and Loudermilk's size, Loudermilk can play with his hand in his dirt or upright.

2(60): Colby Parkinson, TE, Stanford: A bunch of people are mocking him as a 1st at this point, but Drafttek has him as the 63rd ranked player FWIW.

3(92): Lucas Niang, OT, LSU: We bring back Spriggs on a 1 year, prove-it contract to see if he works at RT. Niang develops behind him.

4: Shaq Smith, ILB, Clemson: Smith has an incredible motor, but his stats haven't backed it up thus far. While he's in line to start at ILB for the Tigers, I suspect he'll show a lot of good traits, but may underwhelm from a stats standpoint. Excellent depth and a potential starter next to Martinez if Burks can't stay healthy...

5: Reggie Floyd, S, Va. Tech: Has some recognition and aggression weaknesses to clean up, but he's been a starter since 2017 and will have to lead an inexperienced Hokie secondary.

6: Greg Eisworth, DB, Iowa State: Iowa State's coach is offensively minded, but it's his defense that has helped a resurgence of the program. Eisworth is listed as a CB on some sites and a Safety on others. Solid depth.

7: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma: Boyle plateaus, Kizer still stinks....I mean....why not?

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OneTwoSixFive

OneTwoSixFive

Posted
Posted (edited)

@Fl0nkerton

The interesting thing (for me) in Matt Miller's very early predictions of the next draft year, is that each year, about a third of his predictions are in the right round (1st round).

That is better than it sounds, given both how many underclassmen get drafted in the first round, and also how many draftees have only taken their game to a new level, in their final year.

Edited by OneTwoSixFive
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pacman5252

pacman5252

Posted
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On 4/30/2019 at 10:53 AM, Shanedorf said:

Under the Wolf-influenced Packers they've leaned on the concept that you draft the offense so they can all develop and grow together over time. Then use FA/trades and early draft picks on the defense. The idea behind this is the relative size of the playbooks and how long it takes a college dude to assimilate the Pro game - especially in an up tempo offense. Its also a nod to positional value and relative availability in the draft

The Packers aren't the only ones that lean on this concept. Another part of that equation is that the offensive skill players that truly are difference-makers are often gone by the time GB is on the clock ( over the last decade) In that scenario, it doesn't make as much sense to reach for a skill guy. The Packers record on pass catchers in round 2-3 is pretty spectacular, with Adams, Jennings, Jordy, Jones, Finley, Cobb all coming from that part of the draft.

Tough to argue with those results and the MM Packers also leaned on the idea that opponents don't have 4 CBs that can match up with their deep WR crew as opposed to having one guy like Calvin Johnson who tilts the field

Another component; when you have an All-World QB, you don't necessarily need an A+ pass catcher, you can still be successful with others and re-allocate limited resources into other areas on the team. Generally speaking, WRs, TE's and RBs don't matter as much to winning as some other positions, hence the pushback on spending a 1st on them. There isn't much scarcity within the WR ranks either, unlike for other positions. ( Planet Theory)

So there are many reasons why the Packers do what they do and there's an equal number of reasons why fans struggle to accept these NFL strategies and tendencies. 

Take a cruise through this list of the best WR's in league history and count up how many Super Bowl wins they have.
Other than Jerry Rice, its remarkably barren and that offers a hint about the true value of top skill players in winning Titles

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/leaders/rec_td_career.htm

 

If rings are the criteria for judging players, outside all time qbs, there really isn’t a correlation to championships anywhere.

Take a look at sack leaders. It is pretty thin 

http://www.espn.com/nfl/history/leaders/_/stat/sacks

I think in general skill players get **** on by people on this board. Guys like Moss maybe didn’t get a ring, but made a huge impact on the game (not a coincidence he was on 2 of the greatest team offenses ever).

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Joe

Joe

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, SSG said:

Too early for me.  

There might be potential questions at WR , RT and DL next year with our upcoming UFAs.  

 

I thought about that too, but it goes back to the slot receiver. Who will that be and what will happen between now and the end of the year. Personally, I think we're in a good spot despite no clear slot guy. I think someone with polished footwork like MVS could possibly slide into that roll. We're all looking for short, speedy guys but IIRC Jordy was 6-3 and became the best slot receiver in the league for a few years. *shrug*

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