2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[SSG]

 

12 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Starts mean nothing...how did they produce per snap?

Jordy ranked 51st in DVOA his rookie year. Greg Jennings ranked 81st. James Jones ranked 69th. Driver ranked 47th his 2nd season.

MVS was 63rd and ESB would have been 54th if he had as many opportunities to qualify.

We'll agree to disagree.  

Sorry, I'm not a DVOA guy.  DVOA lost me when it anointed Tyler Lockett's 2019 season as the best season ever by a WR and by a huge margin.  Any metric that views Locket's 2019 season almost twice as good as the next best WR in the league isn't something I'll ever be able to take seriously.  

[wgbeethree]

59 minutes ago, SSG said:

Production doesn't support this.  Jennings was substantially more productive thru year 5.  This was the first season Adams approached #85's best seasons and he needed 45 extra targets to do so.  At their bests so far, Jennings was substantially more productive on a per target basis.  I love Adams and can't stand Jennings but 85 was big play and TD machine when he was at his best in GB.  Think there is a ton of recently bias in this opinion.  

Of the WRs I've watched, he'd be behind Sterling, Lofton, Nelson, Freeman and Jennings in my eyes.  A couple more years like last year and he'll pass Jennings and Freeman on my list.  

I wasn't comparing careers.... but I will.

I'd look at the stats again.

If you take GJs three best seasons individually for receptions, yards, and TDs he has...

224 on 384 targets

3700 yards

33 TDs

If you take Adams last three seasons (and as you point out he didn't REALLY breakthrough until this year)....

260 on 407 targets

3268 yards

35 TDs

.......

And again, that's cherrypicking Jennings three best individual seasons vs. Adams last three.

And again as i have in the past I'll point out that Adams lined up against THIRTEEN* pro bowl cornerbacks last year while putting up the numbers he did. 

*Edit: For clarity I should point out it's 10 pro bowl corners. He faced Fuller, Slay, and Rhodes twice.

 

 

 

 

Edited May 16, 2019 by wgbeethree

[SSG]

1 minute ago, wgbeethree said:

I'd look at the stats again (or more likely for the first time im guessing).

If you take GJs three best seasons individually for receptions, yards, and TDs he has...

224 on 384 targets

3700 yards

33 TDs

If you take Adams last three seasons (and as you point out he didn't REALLY breakthrough until this year)....

260 on 407 targets

3268 yards

35 TDs

.......

And again, that's cherrypicking Jennings three best individual seasons vs. Adams last three.

And again as i have in the past I'll point out that Adams lined up against THIRTEEN pro bowl cornerbacks last year while putting up the numbers he did. 

 

 

 

I looked at the stats.  Through the first 5 years of their careers Jennings had 2 more TDs and over 1000 more yards receiving in just 2 more games played.  That's a substantial difference IMO.  Even if you limit it to three years so you aren't including Jennings best season in regards to TDs, the gap in yards is huge while still getting fewer targets.  

In Jennings 5th year he battled James Jones, Donald Driver and Jordy Nelson for targets and his production was really close to that of Adams despite getting 45 fewer targets.  Adams was was forced the ball ever week because of the terrible talent we had on the WR core.  

While Adams' season was great, I don't put much into the "he lined up against 13 pro bowl CBs".  Just because they were at one time a pro bowler doesn't mean they are currently a pro bowl caliber player.  In 2010, Green Bay played against 16 different CBs who'd made a pro bowl at one time in their career (played against 5 of them multiple times).  That doesn't change an opinion of a season for me.  

[incognito_man]

1 hour ago, SSG said:

 

We'll agree to disagree.  

Sorry, I'm not a DVOA guy.  DVOA lost me when it anointed Tyler Lockett's 2019 season as the best season ever by a WR and by a huge margin.  Any metric that views Locket's 2019 season almost twice as good as the next best WR in the league isn't something I'll ever be able to take seriously.  

They didn't anoint Tyler Lockett's season as the best ever. They may have calculated it to be the most efficient ever on a per play basis, however. I didn't check that.

Generally, I prefer to understand something before I dismiss it.

[PossibleCabbage]

I mean, ESB and MVS had vastly more productivity in 2018 than basically any WRs drafted that late ever had as rookies.  So some of that might be :"they had opportunity and their QB is good" but it would be wrong to discount that they will most likely continue to improve.  People are sleeping on these guys *just* because of where they were drafted.

[wgbeethree]

18 minutes ago, SSG said:

I looked at the stats.  Through the first 5 years of their careers Jennings had 2 more TDs and over 1000 more yards receiving in just 2 more games played.  That's a substantial difference IMO.  Even if you limit it to three years so you aren't including Jennings best season in regards to TDs, the gap in yards is huge while still getting fewer targets.  

 

 

What they did in their first five seasons has absolutely nothing to do with what I said. Jennings first two years were better than Adams. Won't argue that. Didn't argue that. 

I said I'd take 2018 Adams over GJ85 in his prime. It's an opinion you don't have to agree with.

You brought up production. Not me.

Now, I could have just said.... Look at Adams receptions, catch percentage, yards, and TDs last year vs. GJ85 career highs and pointed out that they would rank 1st, 2nd, 1st, and 1st in GJ85s career.

Again, you brought up production.

But... I gave not GJ85s best three year stretch but cherrypicked his best three seasons in each individual stat to combine them to make the best possible argument for your side vs. the last three seasons for Adams even though you yourself said he didn't REALLY breakout until this season. Regardless, and again you brought up production, Adams had more receptions and more TDs in the last three seasons than GJ85 had in , again the cherrypicked best combination of any seasons in his career.

I tried to help make the best argument I could, again for your side, and it's just not that compelling.

I don't really care enough about your opinion to argue further. You win....prime Jennings is better than Adams last year. 

 

 

[HighCalebR]

2 hours ago, SSG said:

Words have plenty of meaning. A definition of caliber is literally, "level of ability".  If you want to make Driver or Jennings out to be terrible players to better support your argument more power to you but there was absolutely nothing wrong with the statements.  

My argument is based on the dumpster fire that our offense was last year.  We seen the offense with MVS and EQ as the #2 and #3 option and it wasn't a playoff "caliber" offense IMO.  If you want to assume career years from every WR more power to you but I'm not going to assume some of our WRs are going to triple the production they seen in their best season.  

So, a caveat. They weren't Pro Bowlers or All Pros, respectively, but you get to anoint them as close to such to support your argument. Fantastic. Jennings was a good player, I've given you that much, Pro Bowl caliber even (even though he only ever went to 2 of those). Donald ABSOLUTELY fell off a cliff in 2010. With only 20 less receptions his 20+ yard plays decreased by over half, his yardage decreased by half. His avg/reception was the lowest since his rookie year. Driver is a great guy but in 2010 he was along for the ride. 

The most ironic part about this conversation is that it took 1 player continuing to play at a high level (GJ) 1 vet presence along for the ride (Donald) and 2 young guys having career years (Jordy and Jones) for you to call it the best offense maybe EVER! While all it takes for our current offense is 1 player to continue playing at a high level (DA) 1 vet presence along for the ride (Allison) and 2 young guys having a career year (hopefully one or two of MVS, EQ, JMon, Kumerow). Even though MVS has shown he's able to produce at least as much as if not more than James Jones already. We're in literally the exact same situation.

I was going to stop replying 3 times ago. I guess I had too much time today. I get it though. You don't believe it until you see it and if you haven't seen it it won't happen. If you've seen a mistake you'll take that as the mean. It's cool but it ain't me.

[boratt]

I’m curious to see where Adams finishes as far as Rodgers era receivers. Nelson and Jennings are ahead but Adams has a chance to be Rodgers most accomplished wide out. 

I appreciate all three about equally for different reasons.

[Arthur Penske]

16 hours ago, AlexGreen#20 said:

So I love Adams, but I'm not sure there's an argument to be made that he's clearly above Jennings. Jennings was fantastic.

Yeah people seem to be willing to forget how good he was because he's a D-bag.

[Uffdaswede]

1 hour ago, Arthur Penske said:

Yeah people seem to be willing to forget how good he was because he's a D-bag.

I grant that he was very valuable to us during his heyday in GB, but what is the explanation for his performance for other teams after his time here? Was he really that good if you look at the entire arc of his career?

[Arthur Penske]

2 minutes ago, blueswedeshoes said:

I grant that he was very valuable to us during his heyday in GB, but what is the explanation for his performance for other teams after his time here? Was he really that good if you look at the entire arc of his career?

Age and QB play.

He played with Ponder, Cassel, and Freeman in MN. Then Tannehill in Miami.

He also got old.

[incognito_man]

53 minutes ago, Arthur Penske said:

Age and QB play.

He played with Ponder, Cassel, and Freeman in MN. Then Tannehill in Miami.

He also got old.

Lest we forget Freeman can throw the football literally out of the stadium.

[ThatJerkDave]

7 minutes ago, incognito_man said:

Lest we forget Freeman can throw the football literally out of the stadium.

Remember when Jerry Glanville bet Favre that he couldn't throw it to the upperdeck? Maybe someone bet Freeman that he couldn't throw the ball out of the stadium, he was just stupid enough to try it during a game instead of practice.

[ThatJerkDave]

On 5/2/2019 at 11:35 PM, Arthur Penske said:

Why did he stay in school with his QB leaving?

We got a Kelly Bryant from Clemson, so QB isn't dire.  

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/sec/university-of-missouri/article229387349.html

Okwuegbunam has battled a shoulder injury since MU’s upset win over No. 13 Florida on Nov. 3, which also played a factor in his reasoning. He missed the last four games of the season and was limited throughout spring practices while he rehabbed. Neither he nor Missouri have publicly commented on the specifics of his injury.

Mizzou coach Barry Odom said Okwuegbunam’s draft decision would have been harder had he been healthy last season. His size, pass-catching ability and speed — he claims to run a 4.50-second 40-yard dash, elite for the position — would have had scouts salivating. But the injury and depth of the position in this year’s draft posed major hurdles. Now, if all goes well, Okwuegbunam could be the top tight end in next year’s draft. At MU’s recent pro day, football super-agents Jimmy Sexton and Tom Condon of CAA both went out of their way to introduce themselves to Okwuegbunam, in hopes of representing him next year.

 

[SAM]

On 5/16/2019 at 12:14 PM, PossibleCabbage said:

2019 was not a strong WR class.  Don't mistake "the best one this year" for  a player who is actually good.  Guys who would see the field before Allison and the sophomore guys ran out quick in 2019.

All I'm saying is when GB picked Jenkins, a Center, at #44, A.J. Brown, Parris Campbell, and DK Metcalf were on the Board. All three were highly productive in Collige, and Freekish big Athletes for WR..