2020 NFL Draft Discussion

[Cakeshoppe]

Something to remember with comp picks is that they do get offset by FA acquisitions. I feel like it’s something we never had to worry about under TT but under Gute we’re going to have to get used to the idea that departing FA no longer mean guaranteed comp picks

[pacman5252]

Is there any chance we pull the trigger on a RB round 2/3? I feel like the position is getting undervalued. Yes a mediocre talent can have success behind a stacked OL, but good backs often average an extra yard a carry (which there is value in). Some teams like NE,STL , MN have recently been using plus picks (rounds 1-3 at the position). Maybe it is just the cost of having a plus ground game?

[Kepler]

4 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

Is there any chance we pull the trigger on a RB round 2/3? I feel like the position is getting undervalued. Yes a mediocre talent can have success behind a stacked OL, but good backs often average an extra yard a carry (which there is value in). Some teams like NE,STL , MN have recently been using plus picks (rounds 1-3 at the position). Maybe it is just the cost of having a plus ground game?

I could see it if the talent was there in round 2 or 3. OL is the way to go in round 1 this year imo, but after that BPA would allow a later RB pick.

[OneTwoSixFive]

50 minutes ago, pacman5252 said:

Is there any chance we pull the trigger on a RB round 2/3? I feel like the position is getting undervalued. Yes a mediocre talent can have success behind a stacked OL, but good backs often average an extra yard a carry (which there is value in). Some teams like NE,STL , MN have recently been using plus picks (rounds 1-3 at the position). Maybe it is just the cost of having a plus ground game?

The Packers took Eddie Lacy with a second round pick in 2013 (albeit a late 2nd pick at #61). Given LaFleur's known desire to feature a run game, I see it as very possible he could go there again, in round 2. 

It's also true that the Packers have got solid value from later picks at RB (Jones, J.Williams), so it is just as likely that they pick up a RB in rounds 4/5. They could even manage without drafting a RB at all.

So, yes they might get a RB high if they think it is the best value for them, but there are other ways to look at it as well. It's really down to seeing which way they jump on draft day 2020, and it is very difficult to predict which way it goes.

Looking at the Fanspeak simulator (using the Drafttek board) I see lots of RBs rated highly for next year. For example:

25 th Travis Etienne - Clemson
28th J.K.Dobbins - Ohio St.
29th D'Andre Swift - Georgia
36th Jonathan Taylor - Wisconsin
55th Eno Benjamin - Arizona St.

While you can never be sure how guys will rise and fall through the season, having five guys available across 30 picks, suggests there will be some value there when the Packers have their 2nd round pick. Whether it is BEST value, is open to question.

Edited September 11, 2019 by OneTwoSixFive

[vegas492]

43 minutes ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

25 th Travis Etienne - Clemson
28th J.K.Dobbins - Ohio St.
29th D'Andre Swift - Georgia
36th Jonathan Taylor - Wisconsin
55th Eno Benjamin - Arizona St.

Can I just homer it up and say that I desire Taylor on the Packer roster?

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, OneTwoSixFive said:

Does anyone else think Linsley could be a cap casualty after this year ? He isn't old (28 this year), and he is playing just fine, but he has a $10.5m cap hit for 2020 and an $8.5m saving if let go after 2019.

With Elgton Jenkins already on the roster, and Patrick (who would be in his 4th season) as backup center, the Packers might think they have enough talent that they consider cutting him as a money saving move. I'm not saying i like such a move, just that the $ saving is enough that the Packers will consider it.

Not really, no.  Of our 3 IOL, which one would you say is the worse?  For me, Lane Taylor is by far the worst of the IOL and he's a FA at the end of next year as well.  Unless the Packers are in a cap-saving mode, you keep Linsley over Taylor.  Now, you probably could extend Corey Linsley to lower his 2020 cap hit or plan on replacing him next year.

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, squire12 said:

You think Crosby is kicking until 2050?  At some point, moving on from Crosby is going to happen.  

No.  Just saying I don't think the Packers are in a rush to replace Crosby like fans are.  I mean, Vikings stupidly released Daniel Carlson and he's turned out to be a solid kicker in Oakland.

[CWood21]

22 hours ago, Joe said:

IF Graham is a cap casualty AND Lewis is gone, we're going to have a pretty big hole at TE regardless of what Tonyan and Sternberger do. This upcoming TE class is pretty weak. 

Also, Jon Runyan's kid, Jon Jr., is in this upcoming draft. Could be a good Day 3 pick it's looking like right now.

I think we're hoping to see a jump out of Robert Tonyan this year that we feel more comfortable going into 2020 with him and Sternberger.  From a numbers' standpoint, we need some bodies.

[CWood21]

18 hours ago, Nick_gb said:

I never suggested the FO was ? I merely stated the cutting Bulaga posts have been the norm around here for the better part of 2 years now and its still continuing.

I thought you were talking about having discussion about offseason moves.  My apologies.

[CWood21]

2 hours ago, pacman5252 said:

Is there any chance we pull the trigger on a RB round 2/3? I feel like the position is getting undervalued. Yes a mediocre talent can have success behind a stacked OL, but good backs often average an extra yard a carry (which there is value in). Some teams like NE,STL , MN have recently been using plus picks (rounds 1-3 at the position). Maybe it is just the cost of having a plus ground game?

It's possible, but I don't think it's likely.  I think we're likely to see OL in the first round, WR/CB/EDGE in R2, and then BPA in R3.

[Joe]

15 minutes ago, CWood21 said:

I think we're hoping to see a jump out of Robert Tonyan this year that we feel more comfortable going into 2020 with him and Sternberger.  From a numbers' standpoint, we need some bodies.

I understand all of that. No argument there; but if we really need some bodies then why cut Graham if he's playing up to his contract number or maybe a bit below? I'd think that maybe we could restructure through extension so, on paper, he could retire a Packer, but lower his cap number moving forward so that slot is filled and we're not rolling the dice. I would think this could buy us some time to allow Sternberger and Tonyan to develop a bit more, but also to buy us time until we felt we had a prospect we liked. I doubt we find that prospect in the next draft.

Edited September 11, 2019 by Joe

[boratt]

I’m a big Graham fan,  but I think I’m the last one left. I do still hope for a big jump from Tonyan and Sternberger though. Vitale too, cuz why not. We’re a TE heavy offense. We need them all. Hell, draft another one while they’re at it. 

[Norse65]

1 hour ago, vegas492 said:

Can I just homer it up and say that I desire Taylor on the Packer roster?

I have followed Wisconsin rbs that have become NFL players for 25 years now.  Most have busted, and it’s interesting to me that one of the two who have had success has had most of it because he is a great and natural receiver as well . I told people Ron Dayne was too slow.  All that said I believe Taylor has everything it takes to become a great NFL back. First guy in years to really impress .

[Joe]

35 minutes ago, boratt said:

I’m a big Graham fan,  but I think I’m the last one left. I do still hope for a big jump from Tonyan and Sternberger though. Vitale too, cuz why not. We’re a TE heavy offense. We need them all. Hell, draft another one while they’re at it. 

Who do you have us picking, though? This last TE class wasn't really that great outside of Fant, Hockenson, and Smith Jr.  After that, there was a huge drop off and Sternberger is a bit of a gamble TBH. This next class is even weaker.

As for the RB situation. I think we're all set, we've got two guys that compliment each other well and then a rookie who's kind of an all-purpose RB2 at best right now. If we were to pick a RB, it would simply be as a result of a deep class. 

I'm thinking finding Tramon's replacement and/or attacking the IOL situation are the best strategies at the moment. There are some nice WR's as well, but two of our Day 3 investments from last year seem to be panning out and Allison has emerged as a solid role player. I get the sneaking suspicion that we just might make a big trade up into the mid-1st if the stars align and we like a guy; at least the way the board sits at the moment.

[CWood21]

2 minutes ago, Joe said:

Who do you have us picking, though? This last TE class wasn't really that great outside of Fant, Hockenson, and Smith Jr.  After that, there was a huge drop off and Sternberger is a bit of a gamble TBH. This next class is even weaker.

Irv Smith was definitely closer to Sternberger than he was either of the Iowa TEs fwiw.  Irv Smith is more of an H-back body type, and he wasn't overly dominant while at Alabama.  Ironically, Irv Smith's production and Combine numbers were fairly similar to Sternberger.  I think if you switched the two, Sternberger would have gone higher.  Albert Okwuegbunam is the headliner in this year's TE class, but behind him I'm not overly exciting about anyone.  Colby Parkinson has the height and solid production, but at 6'7", you'd anticipate him being a bit heavier than the 251 he's listed at.