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dll2000

2019 53 Man Roster Fight

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Posted (edited)

I didn't list every single person that will be in camp.  I highlighted some of the placed I think where position battles will happen in red.

This is my current early projected 53.

QB:

1. M Trubisky

2. C. Daniel

RB:

3. M. Davis

4. T. Cohen

5. D. Montgomery

6. K. Whyte.  I find it very likely Whyte makes team because of return ability and athletic upside, but if he performs poorly in camp/pre season. Bears may add veteran RB cut or roll with 3 using Patterson as a 4th RB.  In that case Whyte goes to practice squad.  

OL:

7. Leno

8. Massie

9. Long

10. Daniels

11. Whitehair

12. Coward

13. Sowell

14. Larsen

15: Camp Fight for open spot: Lucas, Beavers, Allen, Sam Mustipher, Alex Bars, Lowery, Blackmar.  No guarantee Bears will keep 9 either.  

WR:

17.  Robinson

18. Gabriel

19. Patterson

20. Miller

21. Ridley

22. Wims

TE:

23. Burton

24. Shaheen

25. Braunecker

26. Camp fight for open spot:  Ellis Richardson, Dax Raymond, Bunting ... Guessing more bodies will be added as they get waived from other teams.  If they all stink we might roll with 3 TEs and keep a 7th WR.  

DL:

27. Hicks

28. Goldman

29. Nichols

30. RRH

31. Camp Fight: Bullard, Williams, Anderson, Lawrence Marshall.  Bullard better come to camp ready to play this year.  

OLB:

32. Mack

33. Floyd

34. Fitts

35. Lynch

36. Irving  Previous 3 have strong inside track, but none are guaranteed and none have distinguished themselves.  Woods,  Chuck Harris, Mathieu Betts will try to supplant one.  Betts is creating a lot of buzz.  

ILB:

37. Trevathan 

38. Smith

39. Iggy

40. Kwiatkowski   (First three aren't going anywhere in 2019.  Kwiatkoski could possibly be beat out with a strong performance for cap savings, but I don't see anyone doing it. - Vaughter & Thurman are only names I have)

Safeties:

41. Clinton-Dix

42. Jackson

43. Houston-Carson

44. Bush

Corners:

45. Fuller

46. Amukamara

47. Skrine

48. McManis

49. Toliver

50. Shelley, Denmark, Fant, Mincy, Joseph, Franklin.   Denmark should be moved to safety IMO.  Vets might be better, but I think Shelly makes it and Denmark goes to practice squad.  

51. P Too many to mention

52. K. Too many to mention

53. Scales

I think 4th TE probably ends up a guy not currently on roster or radar.  Probably a veteran cut from another team.

 

 

Edited by dll2000

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I'm having trouble trimming my rosters down...

Main battles:

RB: I think we keep 4, with Whyte sticking on the roster. I feel like he's intended to be the "Mizzell" this year, but it's difficult to really understand how much Patterson is going to get used. If Patterson is getting used like he was last year in NE, then Whyte ends up being a weekly inactive, unless he absolutely blows DAVIS away in preseason/TC which seems extremely unlikely. He could also be used over Cohen for KR duties, to avoid risking a more important Cohen.

Edge: I'm buying that Betts bumps off Irving or Fitts.... just on potential.. Also remember there was talk of RRH potentially going to OLB. Lynch I think is actually safe just because he's he was actually pretty decent for us and everyone else is kind of an unknown.

DE: If the rumors of moving RRH to OLB where true, I have no idea what's going to happen here... Even beyond that, if RRH stays DL, I'm not overly enamored with any of the rest yet. Think this spot is the most "wide open" on the team with a bunch of guys all being around the same level.

WR: I think E. Hall has a better shot of making it than Wims does because of the speed factor... I think the intent is to keep both, however, and wouldn't be at all surprised if Emanuel Hall goes immediately on IR because of his groin injury from last year "flairs up" to buy time for us to figure out what to do with Robinson and Gabriel longer term.

Safety: I think, if Denmark is marked as a Safety, then Deon Bush is gone, even with Denmark not knowing the position well. If HHCD goes down, I think they'll just live with Denmark for the remainder of that game, then bring an emergency FA before the next.  If Denmark is not a safety, Bush is safe.

CB: If Denmark is intended to be a corner, it's harder to predict... I think Shelly is more expendable... since we'll already have McMannis and Skrine, and Denmark should offer more ST value via size/athleticism.

TE: Well that was annoying.. I just spent something like 40 minutes of failed google-fu trying to find an article about the UDFA TE "Bunting" guy we picked up because I remembered that last name from my pre-draft research.... I apparently remembered that name because of the CB, not the TE named Bunting, however... sooo you know, there's 40 minutes of my life I'm not getting back, lol.... The Dax kid has a real solid shot of being the #4 guy for TEs... but I think we may run WR heavy instead, and push Dax to the PS.

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QB...Trubisky...Daniel

RB...Montgomery...Davis...Whyte

WR...Robinson...Wims...E. Hall

WR...Miller...Ridley

Weapon...Cohen...Gabriel...Patterson

TE...Burton...Shaheen...Raymond...Brauncker

OT...Leno...Massie...Coward

OG...Long...Daniels...Bars

C...Whitehair...Larsen

 

DE...Hicks...Nichols...Robertson-Harris...Bullard

NT...Goldman

OLB...Mack...Floyd...Lynch...Irving...Fitts

ILB...Smith...Trevathan...Kwiatkoski...Iggy

NB...Skrine...Shelley

CB...Fuller...Amukamara...Toliver...McManis

SS...Clinton-Dix...Bush

FS...Jackson...DHC...Denmark

 

P...O'Donnell

K...Baron

LS...Scales

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They haven't even had Rookie Camp yet let alone non-contact OTAs and you guys are already filling out your line up cards!!!!  :o

Bold.....very bold.  :D

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1 hour ago, soulman said:

They haven't even had Rookie Camp yet let alone non-contact OTAs and you guys are already filling out your line up cards!!!!  :o

Bold.....very bold.  :D

Meh, I think it's kind of fun trying to predict things with what we know know/what we think we know now.... Then see how that changes over time with more information...

Talk of RRH potentially being used as an OLB and absolutely no ideas on how they intend to divide the RB workload (and if Patterson is going to be a part of that rotation) being two prime examples where we just don't really know what to expect. 

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5 hours ago, soulman said:

They haven't even had Rookie Camp yet let alone non-contact OTAs and you guys are already filling out your line up cards!!!!  :o

Bold.....very bold.  :D

We do this every year 😂 always good to see how close you can get...one difference I could see is us picking up a cut vet NT and putting Denmark on the PS...Pagano will more than likely want more DL than Fangio did.

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5 hours ago, Epyon said:

Meh, I think it's kind of fun trying to predict things with what we know know/what we think we know now.... Then see how that changes over time with more information...

Talk of RRH potentially being used as an OLB and absolutely no ideas on how they intend to divide the RB workload (and if Patterson is going to be a part of that rotation) being two prime examples where we just don't really know what to expect. 

 

1 hour ago, Madmike90 said:

We do this every year 😂 always good to see how close you can get...one difference I could see is us picking up a cut vet NT and putting Denmark on the PS...Pagano will more than likely want more DL than Fangio did.

I know guys.  That's why I was laughing and chiding you both kinda tongue in cheek.  It's worse than trying to predict a Joe Maddon line up.  LOL

For me it's still too early.  Pace is always looking to upgrade his roster.  Even his 90 man roster.  So we could see guys cut after Rookie Camp and OTAs and being replaced by guys we bring in for try outs or even unsigned vet FAs.

Once we get to camp and I watch a couple preseason games I can comment on a 53 man roster and some PS guys but now it's too much brain damage for this old brain to process.  We have less openings but competition is no less intense.

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8 hours ago, soulman said:

They haven't even had Rookie Camp yet let alone non-contact OTAs and you guys are already filling out your line up cards!!!!  :o

Bold.....very bold.  :D

You start with a projected list based on expectations and you change it based on play/injury as you go.

When I coached I would make extensive notes and change my list immediately  after every practice in pre season.  I would ask other coaches to do same and we would share notes and lists since you can't be at every drill.

Soon you realize which coaches know what they are looking at, which are too biased to be objective and which don't really have a clue regardless.

In youth football the bias is by far most common.

Everyone is wrong sometimes, thats okay.  You keep gathering evidence and testing.

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Obviously not at pre season camps, meetings, Halas, Bourbanaise sp?, etc., so our lists are based a lot on what other people are saying, online camp videos and eventually pre season.

Not very accurate, but do it all the same.

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My big beef with NFL is they overlook so many guys and fail to develop so many more. A lot of time there isn't legitimate competition. 

Take what even Nagy just said about Hunt at draft press conference.  Press was praising Hunt comparing him to Montgomery. 

Nagy was honest. He said Spencer was guy and he got hurt and Hunt surprised them and never looked back.

If they had structured practice in a way that Hunt had a legit chance to show his skills before season it wouldn't have taken an injury for him to start over Spencer.

Sometimes they are showing their skills and coaches just want to go with guys who have already done it. 

True there are gamers and practice all stars. But in my experience 9x out of 10 if a guy is better in practice he is better. 

 

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I think this will be a year where we see more guys get the IR stash then we have in the past.

Emmaneul Hall seems like the ideal IR stash.

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1 hour ago, dll2000 said:

You start with a projected list based on expectations and you change it based on play/injury as you go.

When I coached I would make extensive notes and change my list immediately  after every practice in pre season.  I would ask other coaches to do same and we would share notes and lists since you can't be at every drill.

Soon you realize which coaches know what they are looking at, which are too biased to be objective and which don't really have a clue regardless.

In youth football the bias is by far most common.

Everyone is wrong sometimes, thats okay.  You keep gathering evidence and testing.

But I'm not a Bears coach nor am I being paid to be one and what you describe is not a particular hobby of mine.

I get it that it may be for you because you have coached and for others as well but for me I have too many other things I need to track in my daily life to find time for that too.  So it's not about being wrong.  Hell, I make wrong calls all the time.  If I was always right I'd be a billionaire by now.  ;)  I just don't enjoy it which is also why I'm not a draftnik and have no interest in doing mocks.

I'm a financial analyst so the cap stuff is more up my alley along with some of the rules issue governing that and player contracts and movement.  I spend more time trying to get a handle on that.  The rest I can often pick up on via scouting reports and then actually watching guys perform in preseason games.  That's when you can usually separate the "ballers" from the "camp fodder".

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57 minutes ago, dll2000 said:

My big beef with NFL is they overlook so many guys and fail to develop so many more. A lot of time there isn't legitimate competition. 

Take what even Nagy just said about Hunt at draft press conference.  Press was praising Hunt comparing him to Montgomery. 

Nagy was honest. He said Spencer was guy and he got hurt and Hunt surprised them and never looked back.

If they had structured practice in a way that Hunt had a legit chance to show his skills before season it wouldn't have taken an injury for him to start over Spencer.

Sometimes they are showing their skills and coaches just want to go with guys who have already done it. 

True there are gamers and practice all stars. But in my experience 9x out of 10 if a guy is better in practice he is better. 

 

I think that's a huge factor with personnel evaluations anywhere not just for NFL coaches.

When your job is on the line and performance is a major issue we all tend to stick with known quantities until those ascending prove they can handle all of what's being asked of them.

This was also my point in another post about keeping Sherrick McManis around this year because of his experience and dependability before turning a rookie loose who may have far more upside but whose also gonna make many rookie mistake while learning.

If you're a bottom ten team in need of developing talent on the fly maybe you do that but when you get to the top ten and are shooting for a championship you don't normally take those same risks.  Rookies learn in preseason and reg. season practices.

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I can see us adding a vet Interior DL  &  maybe a vet  S or Edge   ..but we're mostly set  once we get our  K 

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1 hour ago, soulman said:

But I'm not a Bears coach nor am I being paid to be one and what you describe is not a particular hobby of mine.

I get it that it may be for you because you have coached and for others as well but for me I have too many other things I need to track in my daily life to find time for that too.  So it's not about being wrong.  Hell, I make wrong calls all the time.  If I was always right I'd be a billionaire by now.  ;)  I just don't enjoy it which is also why I'm not a draftnik and have no interest in doing mocks.

I'm a financial analyst so the cap stuff is more up my alley along with some of the rules issue governing that and player contracts and movement.  I spend more time trying to get a handle on that.  The rest I can often pick up on via scouting reports and then actually watching guys perform in preseason games.  That's when you can usually separate the "ballers" from the "camp fodder".

I like the personnel decisions part the most, followed by schemes.

Draft and prospect info, cap info all that stuff which everyone used to be ignorant of because of lack of tape for evaluation and detailed numbers has exploded because of internet.  Now (some) people can make educated guesses that at least have some basis in evidence and aren't pure conjecture from newspaper articles and live broadcasts.  

Schemes and how things actually work on field are still hard(er) to find.  For detailed info you have to go to clinics and stuff for that.  That is a lot of time and money versus just sitting on internet and youtube.

But if you know the scheme it makes evaluating some positions a lot more accurate.  You can be really mad at a guy who appears to have done something really bad and it may not be his fault.

Pro/College schemes I kinda know some of them, but most of it I just know rudimentary.  When I say I know, I mean know to level I could teach it/coach it, not just generally know it.  I know more than most, much less than some.  I don't know as much as I would like because most schemes they teach at clinics and such are impractical for youth football and youth football oriented schemes they sell are impractical for high school and beyond.  Youth schemes are worthless for discussion here.  

I had to start with fundamentals and master those or come close to first so I could teach them.  I started by learning fundamentals for every position from various coaching VHSs/DVDs in 90s run by famous college coaches.   Hours and hours of them.  And I continued to go to clinics.  

I could give you a history of how teaching fundamentals have evolved since late 80s.  Tackling especially has changed a lot each decade since 70s.  Blocking radically changed when they started letting you use your hands and has continued to evolve incrementally, but hasn't changed too much fundamentally in last 5 years or so.  There are different things you can do with your arms/hands that some coaches prefer over others.  Schemes continue to evolve in bits.   

Point is people who don't change not just scheme, but fundamentals with times, die out.   You can't just master fundamentals for your era and stick with that forever.   For me schemes had to come a distant second to staying up with fundamentals and I stopped coaching just as I was beginning to learn more complicated things and advanced concepts and reads for kicks and giggles.  The cutting edge stuff.  Life and responsiblity gets in the way of hobbies.  I don't get paid to coach.  

Coolest thing is old coaches love to talk football and even when they don't even know you they will sit and white board with you for hours if they aren't busy with something else.  They love to pass on knowledge.  Most of it can't be easily found online though that is changing.

Anyway I am babbling.  Knowing fundamentals helps me evaluate these guys greatly.  Doesn't mean I am right, because some guys take to new coaching and some don't.  But I know when they are behind fundamentally.   I can't fathom how some guys can spend 4 years of HS and 3 years of college and be really poor fundamentally coming into NFL.  A lot of these college coaches aren't worth their salt.  Even some really successful ones in terms of Ws and Ls.  They are simply winning with overwhelming physical talent.

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