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2020 Draft Talk


swede700

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4 hours ago, swede700 said:

I wouldn't be disappointed, but I do think they should wait and take one in the mid-rounds and be able to develop him.  The first 3 rounds, as far as I'm concerned, should be OL, DL, and QB (in whichever order).  

I really can't see Spielman drafting a QB any sooner than the last day of the draft, if then.  Unless the Wilfs insist on it, or if he gets an extension (please, Lord, no) he'll just be working to get better now to save his job.  

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3 minutes ago, Hyperborean said:

I really can't see Spielman drafting a QB any sooner than the last day of the draft, if then.  Unless the Wilfs insist on it, or if he gets an extension (please, Lord, no) he'll just be working to get better now to save his job.  

I completely understand that he may likely not, I just think he should, because the options he's tried before haven't worked, whether it's developing UDFAs or taking a 1st rd QB when it's needed.  I say take one in the 2nd or 3rd and develop him to potentially replace Kirk.  

Edited by swede700
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17 hours ago, SteelKing728 said:

Don't know much of anything about Gladney. Isn't he more of a round 2-3 player?

Per the Draft Network, where he is ranked as their 5th CB and 37th overall player

 

PROS: He brings very good reactive athleticism to the CB position. In the run game he is a willing tackler against RBs and TEs. He also displays good tackling efficiency on the perimeter, where he rarely misses. In the passing game he's extremely good. In soft press he displays very strong foot quickness to stay on top when he doesn't get a good reroute. He displays good play speed upfield and easily stays in phase on 9 routes. In off-man he displays very good footwork and hips in coverage. He is usually efficient at the top of the route in his transition. He then displays good closing quickness and ball skills to get his hands on the football. In coverage he does a good job mirroring the WR, putting himself in good position to finish the play with ball in his hands. He clearly understands leverage from the cornerback position and is rarely outflanked on the edge against the run. He projects well as an inside/outside corner who will also excel as a vice/gunner on special teams. 

CONS: He has good length, but should be a better rerouter at the line of scrimmage. When he's in cover 2 from an off position, he also needs to reroute better and limit the pressure he puts on his safety. He displays good balls skills, however, I’d like to see him take advantage of offensive mistakes more often with more interceptions and less PBU's. He's usually in good position, but has a few instances of panicking when the ball is in the air. He can also get a little grabby downfield and will need to be cognizant of this at the next level. 

Man Cover Skills - He's a little loose at the top of breaks in off coverage but appreciate his stickiness in trail and how smooth he is to transition off of the LOS and snap hips vertically. Combative, squeezes receivers effectively and crowds the catch point by feeling pending breaks on the body. 

Zone Cover Skills - Shows good chatter and comfort in passing off routes through his vicinity and not getting overly ambitious or anxious. Shows good range and ability to sink to drop underneath patterns layered behind him. Deep third range is plentiful to stay over top of receivers.  

Feet/COD - Feet are active, clean and quite sudden. Wouldn't describe them as elite but certainly a high end pedal and shows good patience to hop off the LOS and stay square to mirror potential hard breaks when playing up on the line. 

Ball Skills - Has continued to yield more ball production on a year by year basis. Appreciate his nose for the football at the catch point and does well to work eyes back to the ball as hands flash. Takes good angles to the catch point to catch the body flush and reach through for the ball. 

Flexibility - Love how dynamic his hips are. He's effortless in efforts to throw hips open and get vertical to carry routes or stay leveraged in opportunities to bail off the LOS and eye the quarterback. Shows good hip drop to collect and redirect in space. 

Acceleration - He's quick! Definitely has the recovery speed to play on an island vertically. Think his explosion on bucket step is a bit hollow, negating chances to jump routes working back to the LOS. Plenty of juice in straight line situations and builds speed well. 

Defensive Spacing - Will attempt to bait some throws by lagging off but typically has eyes ready to flash and react if ball is keyed his way. He's quick to work into the body as he pattern matches bunched releases or stacked receivers. His short area quickness will deceive passers. 

Competitive Toughness - Scrappy attitude, love the attitude and swagger he brings to playing on the perimeter. Functional strength and ability to physically dictate in press is good but not great, he's not as much of a bully as he aspires to be vs. big, X-receiver builds. 

Run Support - He's willing and able. Doesn't showcase elite length, nor booming hitting power with consistency. That said, he's a sure wrap up tackler who will consistently get his body and hips aligned behind his pads to ensure he's not just a bump in the road. 

Tackling - Appreciate his efforts to close down on the edge and position himself to square up ball carriers. His tackle radius is rock solid thanks to foot activity and short area quickness, helping to mask for only pedestrian reach and area of influence with wingspan. 

---

Best Trait - Man Cover Skills

Worst Trait - Length

Best Film - Texas (2019)

Worst Film - Oklahoma (2019)

Red Flags - None

Player Summary - Jeff Gladney projects as a starting cornerback at the NFL level. His versatility in man and zone coverage alike will serve him well and will allow him to be a fairly universal prospect. Gladney's foot quickness and ball skills would be best served in defenses featuring a high implementation of man coverage. Playing him in a primary Cover 3 is probably the only role where his best qualities would be consistently mitigated. Gladney's football IQ should yield early dividends to his NFL team. 

Edited by Hyperborean
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26 minutes ago, swede700 said:

I completely understand that he may likely not, I just think he should, because the options he's tried before haven't worked, whether it's developing UDFAs or taking a 1st rd QB when it's needed.  I say take one in the 2nd or 3rd and develop him to potentially replace Kirk.  

I'm with you on that.  He SHOULD but probably WON'T is where I think it stands.  

 

Not only does it make sense to get a guy to be your future QB when Kirk goes, but it makes financial sense right now, as virtually no FA QB we could get will be had for the price of a draft pick.  Rick seems to wait too long on some of these decisions.

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21 hours ago, SemperFeist said:

With Kubiak as the OC, I don’t expect the Vikings to draft a QB. 

How could they not?  Go through another season hoping the starter does not get hurt resign and Mannion as the backup?  Not sure that is a great idea.

 

Sure they probably do not go high and try and get a guy like Eason or Love, but is Fromm falls in the 2nd he would be hard to pass on but they probably would not even go 2nd round on a QB.  More importantly get a guy like Shea Patterson who is very mobile in the 4th or 5th, or Jalen Hurts in that same range maybe 3rd to 4th.  Or a Nathan Stanley in the later rounds or Bryce Perkins.  They got to start thinking about it unless they pay Cousins a crap ton more money which I honestly doubt they do since the Super Bowl window would be more likely to be closing than opening in a year or two.  

 

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2 hours ago, Ozzy said:

How could they not?  Go through another season hoping the starter does not get hurt resign and Mannion as the backup?  Not sure that is a great idea.

Because after the second round, success rates for QBs across the NFL are relatively equal between the third round and undrafted players.  With the team still likely believe they are in there competitive "window," I'm betting we spend out first and second round picks on players that fill positions of immediate need for 2020/21 - right or wrong.

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10 hours ago, RpMc said:

Because after the second round, success rates for QBs across the NFL are relatively equal between the third round and undrafted players.  With the team still likely believe they are in there competitive "window," I'm betting we spend out first and second round picks on players that fill positions of immediate need for 2020/21 - right or wrong.

Maybe there's an exhaustive study of this kind of thing somewhere, but I'm not aware of it if it does exist.  It would be interesting to know details.  

I mostly think you're right about more 1st round QBs having success, but I just wonder how many more QBs are actually taken in the first than anywhere else.

Of the 12 playoff teams this year, 7 teams had a first round QB leading them.  One of them--Tannehill--was on his second team.  Three others were on there second team as well (Cousins, Brees, Garoppollo).  Garroppollo was a late 2nd, Brees and early 2nd, Russell Wilson a mid 3rd and Cousins an early 4th.  And of course, Tom Brady was famously taken in the 83rd round with the 474th pick in the draft.  

I know it's opening a whole can of worms to mention what SHOULD have happened, but rather than #3 overall pick Carson Wentz making the playoffs, late 4th round pick Dak Prescott SHOULD have been there.

You can get them all over the draft, obviously.  I don't think it's necessarily the guy, but the guy plus the coach and system/situation, that leads to success for a QB.  Would Brady have been the same guy if he were drafted by the Cincinnati Bengals or if he had been drafted in the first round?  Probably not.  There are just so many variables that go into it, it's almost impossible to figure out who will develop into a great QB.

But you do have to draft the guy in the first place to be able to see.  I remember Bill Walsh saying in an interview that he thought you should draft a QB every year.  During his 10 seasons as HC in San Francisco, he did draft a QB in six of those drafts.  The first one was just a skinny 3rd rounder named Joe Montana.  True, the rest of those QBs were late rounders who did nothing in the league but you've still got to swing to hit a home run.

And remember how the Packers, under Mike Holmgren mainly, would draft QBs left and right even though their starter was firmly entrenched?  From the time Farve arrived in Green Bay until the time Aaron Rodgers did, they drafted eight QBs.  Ty Detmer was a journeyman of little consequence and a couple others never did a thing in the pros, but they turned 5th rounder Mark Brunell into a 3rd and 5th package from the Jags, 6th rounder Matt Hasselbeck into an extra 3rd, and 4th rounder Aaron Brooks into a LB and a 3rd.  Backups who would have just been allowed to walk in FA, gave them draft ammo.

Maybe Spielman is a little reluctant to draft one since Ponder famously crashed and Teddy famously buckled, but back when it wasn't just him, they did draft a few.  In 2006, 07, 08, and 10 they drafted basically duds, but he still tried.  I hope he starts getting back to attempting to find a diamond in the rough again.  He likes amassing picks, so why not throw one at a QB sometime?

Edited by Hyperborean
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1 hour ago, SemperFeist said:

Kubiak, historically, does not work with rookie quarterbacks. He’s always been a coach who prefers veterans. 

What go with Mannion again and hope Cousins does not get hurt?  Not sure that is a great long term strategy.  Backup/developmental future QB needs to be address either in the draft or free agency and not sure the Vikings have the money to get anyone legit free agent wise.  

 

12 hours ago, RpMc said:

Because after the second round, success rates for QBs across the NFL are relatively equal between the third round and undrafted players.  With the team still likely believe they are in there competitive "window," I'm betting we spend out first and second round picks on players that fill positions of immediate need for 2020/21 - right or wrong.

That is not true at all.  Just this past season you have Minshew 6th round, Finley 4th and Stidham 5th, Stick 5th round and McSorley 6th round and all either played this season at some point or at made the roster.  Compared that to who, David Blough?  Yeah I would rather have those other guys thanks.  But maybe the Vikings like Browning enough to have him be the backup next season, I would not really like that long term or for next season but I guess he would be cheap.  

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18 minutes ago, Ozzy said:

That is not true at all.  Just this past season you have Minshew 6th round, Finley 4th and Stidham 5th, Stick 5th round and McSorley 6th round and all either played this season at some point or at made the roster.  Compared that to who, David Blough?  Yeah I would rather have those other guys thanks.  But maybe the Vikings like Browning enough to have him be the backup next season, I would not really like that long term or for next season but I guess he would be cheap.  

Is it not true because you disagree, or because you’ve done or read some research that disproves his statement? There are definitely numbers that support his statement: Success rates for QBs drafted in the 3rd round are roughly equal to those drafted later or signed as UDFAs.

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1 hour ago, JDBrocks said:

Is it not true because you disagree, or because you’ve done or read some research that disproves his statement? There are definitely numbers that support his statement: Success rates for QBs drafted in the 3rd round are roughly equal to those drafted later or signed as UDFAs.

I have to do all the work around here?   But yeah it is not really close, have some outliers in 2017 and 2018, guys like Kyle Allen in 2018, Nick Mullens in 2017 and Taysom Hill but outside of those guys especially if you look down the line of current QBs in the NFL not many stick.  And this list only includes guys currently in the NFL or on a practice squad.  2014, 2015 and 2016 have zero QBs currently who were UDFA.  Mind you the QB classes get deeper and deeper with expanding offenses in the NFL, so the pure number drafted is increasing and guys slip through that which does happen like this past draft had Delvin Hodges and Brett Rypien.  Still does not mean they are long term options necessarily.  

 

Want the Vikings to wait and see if Khalil Tate, Brian Lewerke, Cole McDonald or Nick Tiano slip through the cracks as a UDFA whatever, but again you fine with Jake Browning long term outside of just a backup?  I am not.  

 

2018
Drafted 3rd round or later
Mason Rudolph
Mike White
Kyle Lauletta

UDFA
Kyle Allen
JT Barrett
Kurt Benkert
 

 

2017
Drafted 3rd round or later
Davis Webb
CJ Beathard
Josh Dobbs
Nathan Peterman
Brad Kaaya
Chad Kelly

UDFA
Nick Mullens
Cooper Rush
Taysom Hill

 

 

2016
Drafted 3rd round or later
Jacoby Brissett
Cody Kessler
Dak Prescott
Kevin Hogan
Nate Sudfeld
Brandon Allen
Jeff Driskel

UDFA
Zero

 

2015
Drafted 3rd round or later
Sean Mannion
Brett Hundley
Trevor Siemian

UDFA
Zero

 

2014
Drafted 3rd round or later
Tom Savage
AJ McCarron
David Fales
Garrett Gilbert

UDFA 
Zero

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