JDBrocks Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Andy Dalton is the first name that comes to mind as a safe QB. In this draft, Fromm is the "safe" pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, vikingsrule said: The Vikes didn’t trade up for Ponder. I never said they did, but there isn't a person here on this site that doesn't think they took him far earlier than they should have selected them...and that was the point. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 19 minutes ago, PrplChilPill said: that does not refute the point at all that if you pick them late, they are VERY LIKELY to be even worse than those guys. You have almost zero chance, in the last 10 years, to get a very good QB later than round 1. I don't think it's necessarily VERY LIKELY. In the last 10 years (2008-18), here's what I would consider successful picks by round (excluding this year): 1st round - 15 out of 32 (47%) 2nd round - 4 out of 12 (33%) - Derek Carr, Jimmy Garoppolo, Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick 3rd round - 3 out of 14 (21%) - Jacoby Brissett, Russell Wilson, Nick Foles 4th round - 2 out of 15 (13%) - Dak Prescott, Kirk Cousins 5th - 7th round - No one of any significance outside of maybe Tyrod Taylor So, I guess it depends upon your definition of success, but I think if you take one in the first couple of rounds, you stand a decent chance of success, but anything beyond that is VERY LIKELY to be worse. But, it's really a crapshoot either way...what they need is to have a little luck along with some skill at identifying the right guy. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Wilson is the only one I’d call a success among that list of players taken in round 2 or beyond. Prescott is also heading in the right direction. But as for the rest, they may be successful based on where they were drafted, but based on where a QB needs to be in order to be successful on a league wide level? I can’t say any of them are. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 (edited) 22 minutes ago, SemperFeist said: Wilson is the only one I’d call a success among that list of players taken in round 2 or beyond. Prescott is also heading in the right direction. But as for the rest, they may be successful based on where they were drafted, but based on where a QB needs to be in order to be successful on a league wide level? I can’t say any of them are. Agreed. Success we are looking for is winning a Super Bowl. So, the metric I would use is where were QBs that won the SB drafted. Most of those QBs listed have never won a SB so I wouldn't use them as a measure of the success for which I am looking. That is not to say the won't win one later. But until they do they are not an example of the success for which I am interested. Edited September 24, 2019 by Cearbhall Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikesfan89 Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 The QB that won the most super bowls was drafted in the 6th round. Maybe we should start there Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swede700 Posted September 24, 2019 Author Share Posted September 24, 2019 (edited) 16 minutes ago, Cearbhall said: Agreed. Success we are looking for is winning a Super Bowl. So, the metric I would use is where were QBs that won the SB drafted. Most of those QBs listed have never won a SB so I wouldn't use them as a measure of the success for which I am looking. That is not to say the won't win one later. But until they do they are not an example of the success for which I am interested. That's not really a fair measure of success, since the QB doesn't win the Super Bowl on his own. Only 11 different QBs this millennia have won the Super Bowl and only 5 of them were 1st rounders (Roethlisberger, both Mannings, Rodgers and Flacco)...6 if you include Dilfer in 2000. You may as well just give up now if that's your sole expectation of success as a QB. I guess if you don't become President or CEO of a major corporation, then your entire life is a failure. Edited September 24, 2019 by swede700 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SemperFeist Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Super Bowls aren’t won solely by the QB, but the odds of winning a Super Bowl without a top level QB are so low, you may as well say it’s needed. So, a better phrasing may be, where are the QBs who give you the best chance at winning a Super Bowl likely found? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDBrocks Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 Of the 22 QBs that have started a SB in this millennium, 14 have been top 40 picks. What that doesn't tell you is that the following QBs are included: Rex Grossman Trent Dilfer Kerry Collins Joe Flacco Colin Kaepernick I'm all for getting the QBOTF and think that you should do whatever it takes to get that guy - including mortgaging future drafts. They just have to be absolutely certain that that guy is THE guy. You can't end up with RGIII if you go that direction. I think it's also important now more than ever to find that guy. QB contracts have gone through the roof, and the teams with the best long term outlook are the teams that have cost controlled good QBs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingsrule Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 3 hours ago, swede700 said: I never said they did, but there isn't a person here on this site that doesn't think they took him far earlier than they should have selected them...and that was the point. My point was that Ponder wasn’t a singifcant investment. He cost just one pick outside the top 10. What I’m trying to say is that the Vikes will likely need to trade multiple picks to get a top 10 pick, which is fine, so long as we’re getting a high upside player worth the pick. Waiting around to pick 20 to get a Qb usually seems like a poor strategy, seems you’re likely to end up with a Ponder, Teddy, Dalton type, while they may be talented enough to to develop into mediocre starters, the upside is so limited. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cearbhall Posted September 24, 2019 Share Posted September 24, 2019 1 hour ago, swede700 said: That's not really a fair measure of success, since the QB doesn't win the Super Bowl on his own. Only 11 different QBs this millennia have won the Super Bowl and only 5 of them were 1st rounders (Roethlisberger, both Mannings, Rodgers and Flacco)...6 if you include Dilfer in 2000. You may as well just give up now if that's your sole expectation of success as a QB. I guess if you don't become President or CEO of a major corporation, then your entire life is a failure. No measure of success is completely fair. You have to pick which metric you want to you. Inevitably, it is unfair in some way or another especially when considering it as a measure of something it was never intended to measure. It is a huge jump to say that your entire life is a failure if you don't became the President or a CEO of a major corporation. First, I never said that an entire QBs career is a failure if they don't win a SB. That is en example of using the metric to measure something that it was not intended to measure. It was not intended to measure whether a whole QBs career was a success. It was a metric to measure whether a QB was successful winning a SB. In no way would I say that Dan Marino's career was a failure. But, he did fail to win a Super Bowl. He is not en example of where a team got a QB from to win a SB. Second, whether becoming President or CEO of a major corporation has anything to do with the success of a persons life depends heavily on whether that was ever their goal. My entire post was predicated on that first line: "Success we are looking for is winning a Super Bowl." Without doubt, if that predicate is not met the entire post is irrelevant. By comparing my suggested metric to measuring the success of a persons life on becoming President of CEO of a major company, are you trying to suggest that winning the Super Bowl is not the success we are looking for? I mean, I don't know what success you are looking for from the team and if you just want to be entertained that is great. For me, it is about winning -- winning games and ultimately winning the Super Bowl. I am completely open to other suggestions for a metric to use to measure success again my stated goal outcome. I agree that mine isn't entirely fair, but I also think it will be hard to isolate any metric that is entirely fair. All we can do is pick a metric. I would rather have an objective metric than a subjective opinion when analyzing the data to try and discern. There is simply too much data and dependencies otherwise. Boiling down to a metric makes it digestible. In cases like this where there are other factors, you hope that things equal out in the wash. Sure, there will be some QBs in that metric that are terrible and some good ones that are missed. That is true. And that is fine. It will still give an idea from where to look to find a QB that will help the team win the Super Bowl. If you think another metric is better, can you please propose it? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDakViking Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 Dolphins will be a prime candidate to move around after they pick Tua #1. Pittsburgh pick will likely be ahead of Minnesota's and the Texans will probably be right around theirs too. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozzy Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 I know he will not be around when the Vikings pick but I would love Justin Herbert at QB for this zone blocking scheme and new offensive system. He is a better athlete than Kirk, bigger and can create more with his legs. Could be great on long stretch plays with his height and could be awesome on boot leg action and rolling back around making plays with his arm or legs. Is accurate and having a great season, I would take him all day if he fell in the 1st round for whatever reason but doubt that happens. That is why I liked Sloter so much because of that athletic ability in this specific offense, still wish we kept him and not Mannion. Being a good athlete at QB helps greatly playing in an offense like this because one can do that much more. Compared to Cousins and Mannion who are not the best athletes, at least Kirk is moving around and taking what the defense gives him, he is at least doing that with he did not do much of last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NoDakViking Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 38 minutes ago, Ozzy said: I know he will not be around when the Vikings pick but I would love Justin Herbert at QB for this zone blocking scheme and new offensive system. He is a better athlete than Kirk, bigger and can create more with his legs. Could be great on long stretch plays with his height and could be awesome on boot leg action and rolling back around making plays with his arm or legs. Is accurate and having a great season, I would take him all day if he fell in the 1st round for whatever reason but doubt that happens. That is why I liked Sloter so much because of that athletic ability in this specific offense, still wish we kept him and not Mannion. Being a good athlete at QB helps greatly playing in an offense like this because one can do that much more. Compared to Cousins and Mannion who are not the best athletes, at least Kirk is moving around and taking what the defense gives him, he is at least doing that with he did not do much of last year. I assume Herbert will be gone, as well as Tua. Who are the other QBs that have caught your attention so far? I know Burrow is ascending and Vikings scouts were at the Utah State game last weekend for Jordan Love. Any interest in these guys or Eason, Hurts, or Fromm? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CriminalMind Posted September 25, 2019 Share Posted September 25, 2019 (edited) trade up higher in the draft with a future 1st ... and get your QBOTF. Cousins is allowed to play out his final season with a decent squad. Vikings tell him the new QB is going to eventually be the starter (by latest, the following yr) and its up to him if he wants to waive his NTC to be moved to another team before the season. Edited September 25, 2019 by CriminalMind 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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