Top 5 AFC/NFC Teams post NFL Draft?

[Bolts223]

No particular order

NFC:

Saints, Rams, Eagles, Bears, Packers

AFC:

Patriots, Chargers, Colts, Chiefs, Steelers

Edited May 1, 2019 by Bolts223

[tom cody]

Playoff teams for me right now:

AFC: Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Chiefs, Chargers, Browns

NFC: Eagles, Bears, Saints. Rams, Cowboys, Falcons

[Broncofan]

 

 

 

 

3

22 hours ago, TheVillain112 said:

idk about that, from briefly skimming last years draft, these are the rookies I can recall that made an impact last season (I know you noted last season was the exception):

• Baker Mayfield
• Saquon Barkely
• Philip Lindsay
• Denzel Ward
• Bradley Chubb
• Derwin James
• Jessie Bates
• Quinton Nelson
• Mike McGlinchey
• Daron Payne
• Jaire Alexander 
• LVE
• Darius Leonard

And I'm sure there's a lot of others that I missed.  I would argue that all of those guys that I listed played close to a pro bowl caliber level.  So rookies can definitely have an early impact like they did with the Colts last season.

If you go back to 2017: Jamal Adams, CMC, DeShaun Watson, Marshon Lattimore, Tre'Davious White, Ryan Ramczyk, Joe Mixon, JuJu, Alvin Kamara, Kareem Hunt, etc..

Since the rookie wage scale was put in, I'd argue that teams are relying more on rookies...

I missed Nelson, that's for sure.  So 4 impact O Year 1 rookies.   I'm not sure McGlinchey was a huge impact rookie, though.   I think his greatest impact is coming yet.   TBH, Chubb's sacks are nice, but he struggled elsewhere, and his sack #'s overinflate the impact he had, TBH.  Either way, though, that's a fair list.    I completely agree that teams rely more on rookies as they need to balance the cap.  No argument there.

My point was that for year 1, the impact rookie is still the exception, and rarely for teams, do you get more than 1 guy in a draft impact a team's fortunes for year 1 (the one notable exception - RB, those can be found late).   NO 2017 & IND 2018 are very much the exception.   It can still happen, especially if a team is only 1 major weakness away from being back to a top 5 team.  But if there are teams that need more than 1 major need, it's tough to count on those year 1 rookies having that difference-making impact - really, only IND had that going for them where it made such a difference that it got them to make that leap - everyone else, the team was already top 5 IMO, or they didn't get there even with that impact (you could make an argument for DAL, but I'd submit that Cooper going to DAL turned their season around much more than LVE did).  That was my main point of why I don't change top 5 lists too much year 1 post-draft.  You'll note it's not a lock, though - I put MIN back because I only saw 1 major weakness from 2018, and it got addressed in a huge way.

 

[Ray Reed]

Lot of people putting the Steelers top 5 based on name brand alone rn imo. They could bounce back but I don't see them as a better team this year than they were last year and they weren't even top 6 last year.

I'd comfortably put:

Pats/KC/LAC/IND in front of them 

and arguably

BAL/CLE/HOU

 

This is obviously just looking at the teams when taking last year into consideration and FA/Draft and when the season starts maybe they turn it on, but right now on paper they're not a top 5 team in the AFC

[SBLIII]

Just now, Ray Reed said:

Lot of people putting the Steelers top 5 based on name brand alone rn imo. They could bounce back but I don't see them as a better team this year than they were last year and they weren't even top 6 last year.

I'd comfortably put:

Pats/KC/LAC/IND in front of them 

and arguably

BAL/CLE/HOU

 

This is obviously just looking at the teams when taking last year into consideration and FA/Draft and when the season starts maybe they turn it on, but right now on paper they're not a top 5 team in the AFC

The AFC will be a close battle so there are no guarantees but I think you are selling them a bit low. They have some very good pieces. They got rid of the cancers and Tomlin never had a losing season. Their defense should be improved. Their OL is good to very good and the skill position players aren't great but pretty solid overall with Juju, Conner and a few complimentary pieces. Plus with their WR drafting history James Washington probably becomes a baller.

[Thomas5737]

16 hours ago, SBLIII said:

The AFC will be a close battle so there are no guarantees but I think you are selling them a bit low. They have some very good pieces. They got rid of the cancers and Tomlin never had a losing season. Their defense should be improved. Their OL is good to very good and the skill position players aren't great but pretty solid overall with Juju, Conner and a few complimentary pieces. Plus with their WR drafting history James Washington probably becomes a baller.

Yeah I suppose so but they made my top 5 in the AFC largely on having an established really good QB. Ben is still at worst a top 5 QB in the AFC (I would have him 3rd), at least through last season. It wasn't like he was at his best when throwing to AB last year either. The more talent the better but while it looked like it was mostly Ben's fault they had so much trouble hooking up last year, especially early, it still results in the loss not being a huge factor like it would have been in previous years. Ben is mostly a different QB now, he isn't going to extend plays and find a quick WR down the field like he did a few years ago which is where that connection was at it's best. Juju is a better target for him at this stage imo, also TE and RB which we'll see what they have there.

[game3525]

The Steelers were 9th in DVOA and 6th SRS. They were a little bit better then their record suggested. I expect them to go 10-6, which should be enough to win the division. They had some unlucky breaks last year and usually that evens out the following year. 

The most interesting question about the conference is who finishes second and how many wins they get? I don't see anyone other then the Pats winning 12+ games this year. This could be the year like the NFC in 2006, when a 10-6 team has a bye week. 

[Hunter2_1]

PIT still have a top 5 offensive line, they still have really good skilled players in JJSS, Conner and decent 2nd/3rd receiving. They have pass rush, they have playmakers on the line, and their secondary is no longer a laughing stock as far as I'm concerned. Plus BB is still a top 10 QB.

Everyone is down on them because they've lost AB and LB (plus being high on Cleveland seems to mean you have to relinquish trust in another inter-Div team) but they can replicate the production sufficient enough. 

[Danger]

On 5/5/2019 at 1:45 PM, Hunter2_1 said:

PIT still have a top 5 offensive line, they still have really good skilled players in JJSS, Conner and decent 2nd/3rd receiving. They have pass rush, they have playmakers on the line, and their secondary is no longer a laughing stock as far as I'm concerned. Plus BB is still a top 10 QB.

Everyone is down on them because they've lost AB and LB (plus being high on Cleveland seems to mean you have to relinquish trust in another inter-Div team) but they can replicate the production sufficient enough. 

Yeah but this year they don't have to deal with those two circuses.

[Dr LBC]

On 5/1/2019 at 8:20 AM, TheVillain112 said:

idk if they've propelled themselves into top 5, but I've been pretty impressed with what the Titans have done.  If Jeffery Simmons can play early (and look the same), I wouldn't be surprised if they push for top 5 in the AFC...

They fall into the same category as the Ravens for me right now (if not just slightly below, I'll explain why).  I don't doubt their defense - we always hem and haw about how the Ravens lose talent on defense in FA and the next-guy-up culture just keeps chugging along to keep it a well-coached, well-schemed, well-oiled machine that remains a Top 5 in the league stallwart year in and year out.  I consider the Titans' defense to be lesser, but not by a ton (I'm still a shade suspect of their secondary compared to Baltimore's).  It's the offenses of the two that create the question marks.  Presumably both are going to rely heavily on the running game and put minimal demand on the arms of their QB's.  Thing is, I've seen Baltimore execute that plan to effect of reaching the playoffs in the division they're in and I can't say the same for the Titans, save in spurts lacking consistency.

[Raves]

On 5/2/2019 at 12:57 PM, Broncofan said:

I missed Nelson, that's for sure.  So 4 impact O Year 1 rookies.   I'm not sure McGlinchey was a huge impact rookie, though.   I think his greatest impact is coming yet.   TBH, Chubb's sacks are nice, but he struggled elsewhere, and his sack #'s overinflate the impact he had, TBH.  Either way, though, that's a fair list.    I completely agree that teams rely more on rookies as they need to balance the cap.  No argument there.

My point was that for year 1, the impact rookie is still the exception, and rarely for teams, do you get more than 1 guy in a draft impact a team's fortunes for year 1 (the one notable exception - RB, those can be found late).   NO 2017 & IND 2018 are very much the exception.   It can still happen, especially if a team is only 1 major weakness away from being back to a top 5 team.  But if there are teams that need more than 1 major need, it's tough to count on those year 1 rookies having that difference-making impact - really, only IND had that going for them where it made such a difference that it got them to make that leap - everyone else, the team was already top 5 IMO, or they didn't get there even with that impact (you could make an argument for DAL, but I'd submit that Cooper going to DAL turned their season around much more than LVE did).  That was my main point of why I don't change top 5 lists too much year 1 post-draft.  You'll note it's not a lock, though - I put MIN back because I only saw 1 major weakness from 2018, and it got addressed in a huge way.

 

That 2017 Saints draft was ridiculous, I can't think of another team to have such an impactful class as that one in recent years.

[Superman(DH23)]

On 5/6/2019 at 8:10 PM, Raves said:

That 2017 Saints draft was ridiculous, I can't think of another team to have such an impactful class as that one in recent years.

The Bears 2017 wasnt far behind producing 2 all pros in 2018, a Probowl QB and a starting TE.  Last years Bears class is looking pretty good as well with 4 current starters.

[fortdetroit]

9 minutes ago, Superman(DH23) said:

The Bears 2017 wasnt far behind producing 2 all pros in 2018, a Probowl QB and a starting TE.  Last years Bears class is looking pretty good as well with 4 current starters.

 

If Adam Shaheen is your starting TE, that's not a good thing.  

[Superman(DH23)]

4 minutes ago, fortdetroit said:

 

If Adam Shaheen is your starting TE, that's not a good thing.  

Hes the starting Y, and hes been a pretty good red zone target, and has become a really good blocker.  It's been a matter of him staying healthy.  If he plays 16 games I think we'll see some pretty damn good production for him.

[Buckweath]

3 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

The Bears 2017 wasnt far behind producing 2 all pros in 2018, a Probowl QB and a starting TE.  Last years Bears class is looking pretty good as well with 4 current starters.

I guess you guys had it rough for a couple of years because those drafts you are referring to are nothing special. They are merely good if even that because Trubisky was not a good pick when you see Mahomes and Watson.

 

I mean Trubisky to me is Ryan Tannehill but slightly better. I'd like to see what you see in him but I'm afraid it's just you being a homer. I'm a fan of Matt Nagy though.

Edited May 9, 2019 by Buckweath