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FinSting

Rebuilding Whirlwind

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7 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I, honestly, don't. You can't ignore the last year.

 

Good point, dude SWEPT the 49ers last year lol. Including a 4th-quarter drive and TD pass from Rosen with 32 seconds left to win their home game vs SF. 

I knew nothing about Rosen til after the Fins traded for him. Been watching some of his Cardinals highlights since then and was happy to see he can make the throws, even when he knows he's gonna get hit a lot (he was sacked 3 times in the 49ers game). 

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48 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I, honestly, don't. You can't ignore the last year.

And in the last year, Rosen failed spectaruarly as a Cardinal. Which by itself wouldn't mean much considering his poor supporting cast and coaching, but combined with the fact that the Cardinals, who know Rosen better than anyone else in the league, decided to move on from him after just one season... it does say quite a bit. And perhaps even more telling: that the 30 other teams in the NFL were so down on Rosen that the Dolphins' late 2nd round pick was the best offer available for him.

We've seen QB prospects drop from 1st overall consideration to mid round picks due to their final season in the NCAA. I'd put more worth on an NFL season than an NCAA season as far as gauging what their NFL value is.

Let me put it another way - if Rosen decided to return to UCLA and had a horrendous season (the NCAA equivilent of how bad he looked as a Cardinal last year), do you honestly think he still goes in the first two rounds? Maybe, but it wouldn't be some "great value" taking a chance on him with a late 2nd.

Rosen had one of the worst rosters in the NFL last season.  Had no one developing him from the coaching staff.  Miami's roster today is better than what Rosen had in AZ for 2018.  WHich is sad.

He needs to be given 2 years under O'Shea and Caldwell.  If he isn't the guy after 2 years, you mortgage everything for Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson).  Hopefully, with the stockpile of draft picks we have for 2020, Miami can develop a deep roster with young talent. (2020 draft is loaded).  If Rosen just isn't the guy after 2 years. Lawrence steps in with a carefully constructed roster.  

Remember.... Peyton Manning went 3-13 and threw 28 INT (led the league) his first season with the Colts. Not saying Rosen isn't the second coming of Manning, but in today's NFL, Manning would have gotten roasted and people would be questioning his "Bust" status.

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7 minutes ago, Rgossett07 said:

Rosen had one of the worst rosters in the NFL last season.  Had no one developing him from the coaching staff.  Miami's roster today is better than what Rosen had in AZ for 2018.  WHich is sad.

He needs to be given 2 years under O'Shea and Caldwell.  If he isn't the guy after 2 years, you mortgage everything for Trevor Lawrence (QB Clemson).  Hopefully, with the stockpile of draft picks we have for 2020, Miami can develop a deep roster with young talent. (2020 draft is loaded).  If Rosen just isn't the guy after 2 years. Lawrence steps in with a carefully constructed roster.  

Remember.... Peyton Manning went 3-13 and threw 28 INT (led the league) his first season with the Colts. Not saying Rosen isn't the second coming of Manning, but in today's NFL, Manning would have gotten roasted and people would be questioning his "Bust" status.

1) I'm not sure there's a strong argument to be made to say the Cardinals definitely had a worse roster than the Dolphins do. Or at least, even if I were to be super optimistic about the Dolphins, I'm not convinced it's better in any significant way than what Rosen had with the Cardinals last year.

2) That's the problem with the trade, though. You're right, ideally, we should devote 2 years to a franchise QB. Trouble is, by doing so we may lose out on what appears to be a fantastic 2020 QB class. If Rosen isn't impressive this year, we'd be insane not to draft one of the higher end 2020 QBs if we are in a position to do so. Lawrence is obviously a great prospect for 2021, but we'd have to be the worst team in the league to land him... that's no guarentee.

3) Peyton Manning is the exception rather than the rule. Also while he did have 28 interceptions, he also threw for 3700 yards and 26 touchdowns (which were actually really impressive stats for 1998). Let's not pretend that he was completely unimpressive... his rookie season was leaps and bounds more promising than Rosen's.

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Troy Aikman's rookie year: 9 TD's, 18 INT's. That Dallas team was awful in 1989, worst team in the NFL. Just like the Cardinals were worst team in the NFL in 2018. 

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20 minutes ago, FinSting said:

Troy Aikman's rookie year: 9 TD's, 18 INT's. That Dallas team was awful in 1989, worst team in the NFL. Just like the Cardinals were worst team in the NFL in 2018. 

Let's play a game. For every QB you can name who had a poor rookie year and went on to be a franchise QB, I'll  name three QBs who had a poor rookie year and never amounted to anything worthwhile.

Ryan Leaf: 2 TD, 15 INT

Cade McNown: 8 TD, 10 INT

Akili Smith: 2 TD, 6 INT

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5 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Let's play a game. For every QB you can name who had a poor rookie year and went on to be a franchise QB, I'll  name three QBs who had a poor rookie year and remained garbage during his NFL tenure.

Ryan Leaf: 2 TD, 15 INT

Cade McNown: 8 TD, 10 INT

Akili Smith: 2 TD, 6 INT

No one here is saying Josh Rosen is a shoe in to be a franchise QB.  But he needs to be given a proper chance.  My point is give him 2 years in the same system under a coach who is proven to groom QBs (Jim Caldwell).  If he isn't the guy in 2 years, take someone else. People are roasting Rosen for 1 year with a terrible team.  Unfair assessment.

I just hope Miami fanbase has patience.  This is a 3 year plan.  2021 season is the season to circle.   

2019  3-13

2020 7-9

2021 11-5

 

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34 minutes ago, TheKillerNacho said:

Let's play a game. For every QB you can name who had a poor rookie year and went on to be a franchise QB, I'll  name three QBs who had a poor rookie year and never amounted to anything worthwhile.

It's NFL basic knowledge...rookie QB's are mostly clueless. Then they get better. 

B-Flo gonna coach the shizz outta this team. Don't sleep on Miami in 2019. 

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2 minutes ago, FinSting said:

It's NFL basic knowledge...rookie QB's are mostly clueless. Then they get better. 

B-Flo gonna coach the shizz outta this team. Don't sleep on Miami in 2019. 

I really have no desire to try to destroy your optimism because frankly I'm jealous of it so I'm just gonna butt out on this topic.

But I disagree with the notion that rookie QBs are clueless. While most get better, the raw talent and work ethic has to be present day 1 for them to become a franchise guy. And even then it is no guarantee.

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Just now, TheKillerNacho said:

I really have no desire to try to destroy your optimism because frankly I'm jealous of it so I'm just gonna butt out on this topic.

But I disagree with the notion that rookie QBs are clueless. While most get better, the raw talent and work ethic has to be present day 1 for them to become a franchise guy. And even then it is no guarantee.

I'm optimistic because I've been watching NFL games so long, nothing is a surprise. The craziest stuff can happen and often does. Every year some team is a shocking surprise, and it often happens right after a regime change. Meaning every team in the league has decent players, it's the coaching staff and scheme that get the most out of them. Take Charles Harris for example, I'm thinking he will be a much-improved player under Flores. 

I feel you tho, being pessimistic is certainly deservable for this wacko team. Fins have been in a soul-crushing funk for 19 years, other than two quickly snuffed playoff appearances that ended on wildcard weekend with two losses where the season-ending outcome was obvious by halftime. And both times the QB was injured for the following season so no repeat playoff appearance. Plus all the head-shaking contracts and bootyhole draft picks that for years have had people wondering what the Miami FO was smoking. 

Now we have this Brave New World where the talk shows actually say "hey Miami made some smart moves." This is uncharted territory and I like it. 

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29 minutes ago, FinSting said:

I'm optimistic because I've been watching NFL games so long, nothing is a surprise. The craziest stuff can happen and often does. Every year some team is a shocking surprise, and it often happens right after a regime change. Meaning every team in the league has decent players, it's the coaching staff and scheme that get the most out of them. Take Charles Harris for example, I'm thinking he will be a much-improved player under Flores. 

I feel you tho, being pessimistic is certainly deservable for this wacko team. Fins have been in a soul-crushing funk for 19 years, other than two quickly snuffed playoff appearances that ended on wildcard weekend with two losses where the season-ending outcome was obvious by halftime. And both times the QB was injured for the following season so no repeat playoff appearance. Plus all the head-shaking contracts and bootyhole draft picks that for years have had people wondering what the Miami FO was smoking. 

Now we have this Brave New World where the talk shows actually say "hey Miami made some smart moves." This is uncharted territory and I like it. 

Tbh, I think I'm being neither pessimistic nor optimistic: I strive to be a realist with my views lacking any bias. I probably have a tendency to favor optimism, though, but I honestly don't see anything about the 2019 Dolphins to be optimistic about. (I don't base my expectations about what talking heads think either)

It's ultimately hard to ignore the Ross-era Dolphins' continued and sustained incompetence from the top level down. But I digress.

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3 hours ago, TheKillerNacho said:

I, honestly, don't. You can't ignore the last year.

And in the last year, Rosen failed spectaruarly as a Cardinal. Which by itself wouldn't mean much considering his poor supporting cast and coaching, but combined with the fact that the Cardinals, who know Rosen better than anyone else in the league, decided to move on from him after just one season... it does say quite a bit. And perhaps even more telling: that the 30 other teams in the NFL were so down on Rosen that the Dolphins' late 2nd round pick was the best offer available for him.

We've seen QB prospects drop from 1st overall consideration to mid round picks due to their final season in the NCAA. I'd put more worth on an NFL season than an NCAA season as far as gauging what their NFL value is.

Let me put it another way - if Rosen decided to return to UCLA and had a horrendous season (the NCAA equivilent of how bad he looked as a Cardinal last year), do you honestly think he still goes in the first two rounds? Maybe, but it wouldn't be some "great value" taking a chance on him with a late 2nd.

You just described our own Dan Marino.  

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2 minutes ago, hrubes20 said:

You just described our own Dan Marino.  

Marino wasn't that horrible his senior year by 1982 standards, and still garnered some Heisman consideration, even. It definitely hurt his draft stock though... if he were able to replicate his 1981 success we wouldn't have had the pleasure of having him drop to us at 27th overall.

Either way, I'm not sure what people are trying to prove. Certainly, players do occasionally work out despite early failures but they're the statistical outliers rather than the rule of thumb. Not something I want to hitch my horse to, especially if it excludes rolling the dice one of the exciting 2020 QB prospects.

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Trading a second and fifth round pick for Rosen was a low risk safety net move.  There is no guarantee that we will get Tua or Hebert next draft.......If we can’t draft one of those 2 QB’s then we still have Rosen for another year at a bargain price.....Additionally, because we didn’t spend a first round pick on Rosen and are paying him only about $2Mil a season we aren’t paying to the point that if we do land Tua or Hebert that we have to cut or trade Rosen.  We can ultimately keep Rosen for the 2020 season to compete with the newly drafted QB for a season.

It’s win win!!!

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On 5/6/2019 at 10:21 AM, TheKillerNacho said:

And in the last year, Rosen failed spectaruarly as a Cardinal. Which by itself wouldn't mean much considering his poor supporting cast and coaching, but combined with the fact that the Cardinals, who know Rosen better than anyone else in the league, decided to move on from him after just one season... it does say quite a bit. And perhaps even more telling: that the 30 other teams in the NFL were so down on Rosen that the Dolphins' late 2nd round pick was the best offer available for him.

Rosen failed spectacularly with a miserable supporting cast, and a coaching staff that wasn't going to let anyone succeed, let alone a rookie QB.  Does Aaron Rodgers have much success in Arizona?  Probably not.  We're talking about an abysmal OL, a receiving cast sans Larry Fitzgerald that is closer to backend of the 53 man roster than legitimate starting weapons, and a defensive-minded HC.  The only part of the 2018 season that might give you concern is if you think his confidence is squashed.  If you don't think that's the case, you throw the 2018 season out the window.  The Cardinals fired Steve Wilks, and hired Kilff Kingsbury.   Kingsbury is an offensive-minded HC who has a very specific fit for his QB in his offense, and the value that a QB that can extend plays goes a LONG way towards having success.  In terms of fits, Kyler Murray fit Kliff's offense SIGNIFICANTLY better than Josh Rosen, and that's not a knock on Rosen.  If Murray wasn't in the draft, would the Cardinals have taken a QB #1 overall?  Probably not.

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Just now, CWood21 said:

Rosen failed spectacularly with a miserable supporting cast, and a coaching staff that wasn't going to let anyone succeed, let alone a rookie QB.  Does Aaron Rodgers have much success in Arizona?  Probably not.  We're talking about an abysmal OL, a receiving cast sans Larry Fitzgerald that is closer to backend of the 53 man roster than legitimate starting weapons, and a defensive-minded HC.  The only part of the 2018 season that might give you concern is if you think his confidence is squashed.  If you don't think that's the case, you throw the 2018 season out the window.  The Cardinals fired Steve Wilks, and hired Kilff Kingsbury.   Kingsbury is an offensive-minded HC who has a very specific fit for his QB in his offense, and the value that a QB that can extend plays goes a LONG way towards having success.  In terms of fits, Kyler Murray fit Kliff's offense SIGNIFICANTLY better than Josh Rosen, and that's not a knock on Rosen.  If Murray wasn't in the draft, would the Cardinals have taken a QB #1 overall?  Probably not.

I've pretty much said everything already so I'll just say I hope you're right and Rosen doesn't totally suck. We'll see.

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