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Bears Current Cap Situation

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6 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

Floyd isnt getting cut, his 5th year is now guaranteed.  Pace is going to extend Floyd, probably this summer.

only guaranteed for injury. lets say he plays all 16 games next year, is v disappointing, and comes out uninjured. we could still cut him and be out nothing

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6 hours ago, Sugashane said:

 I didn't mean anything about cutting him. I mean that after he walks the next year then we can get a compensatory pick. That was all I meant.

But in his case would a late 3rd compensatory pick be equivalent to what Floyd can produce?

The dilemma every GM has with his top guys at premium positions is eventually you have to pay to keep them.  Pace and Laine will need to figure out just how many of those guy they can afford and at what spots.

But I also believe the cap will continue to rise even spiking sharply upward once the new CBA goes into effect.  The owners already know they're gonna have to expand the players share.  How much will be the battle but even a 1%-1 1/2% increase will add seven figures to the overall cap beyond the current annual increases.  Most of the high dollar deal being handed out already factor that in.

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1 hour ago, soulman said:

But in his case would a late 3rd compensatory pick be equivalent to what Floyd can produce?

The dilemma every GM has with his top guys at premium positions is eventually you have to pay to keep them.  Pace and Laine will need to figure out just how many of those guy they can afford and at what spots.

But I also believe the cap will continue to rise even spiking sharply upward once the new CBA goes into effect.  The owners already know they're gonna have to expand the players share.  How much will be the battle but even a 1%-1 1/2% increase will add seven figures to the overall cap beyond the current annual increases.  Most of the high dollar deal being handed out already factor that in.

That's the thing though,  is Floyd really a top guy for us? Mack, Hicks, Fuller, Jackson, Smith are all clearly significantly better IMO, you can really argue Goldman is too and Nichols may prove to be as well.  At best he is currently the 6th best person on the defense and he offers little in sacks.  He is only averaging 5 or so a year. So how much "production" does he really add when he can't stay healthy?

 

So Floyd is a utility OLB (because he isn't a major passrush threat) worth being as highly paid as some of the other guys got in FA? I don't believe so. Dominant passrushers like Mack are worth $20mil a year, Floyd is worth about half of that, but can get way more than $10mil per in the open market IMO. 

 

He was also very inconsistent his entire career until halfway through last year. Is rhat because he "turned the corner" ot is he riding off having the best defense in the NFL around him? And finally he doesnt seem dutable at all. He has missed 10 out if 48 games and was pretty ineffective due to his broken hand for 8 to 10 last year. Yes he started all 16 but when you're JAG for half the season due to injury I'm not going to brag about that.

 

Maybe Pace gets a Massie kind of deal done,  Idk. But if he is looking at north of $12 mil per year he just isnt worth it imo. If Callahan was let free in large part due to his durability then it will absolutely be a factor in Pace's decision for him. RRH may be a better value if he does well at OLB too. There is a lot if moving parts and time for things to hash out. 

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8 hours ago, Sugashane said:

That's the thing though,  is Floyd really a top guy for us? Mack, Hicks, Fuller, Jackson, Smith are all clearly significantly better IMO, you can really argue Goldman is too and Nichols may prove to be as well.  At best he is currently the 6th best person on the defense and he offers little in sacks.  He is only averaging 5 or so a year. So how much "production" does he really add when he can't stay healthy?

 

So Floyd is a utility OLB (because he isn't a major passrush threat) worth being as highly paid as some of the other guys got in FA? I don't believe so. Dominant passrushers like Mack are worth $20mil a year, Floyd is worth about half of that, but can get way more than $10mil per in the open market IMO. 

 

He was also very inconsistent his entire career until halfway through last year. Is rhat because he "turned the corner" ot is he riding off having the best defense in the NFL around him? And finally he doesnt seem dutable at all. He has missed 10 out if 48 games and was pretty ineffective due to his broken hand for 8 to 10 last year. Yes he started all 16 but when you're JAG for half the season due to injury I'm not going to brag about that.

 

Maybe Pace gets a Massie kind of deal done,  Idk. But if he is looking at north of $12 mil per year he just isnt worth it imo. If Callahan was let free in large part due to his durability then it will absolutely be a factor in Pace's decision for him. RRH may be a better value if he does well at OLB too. There is a lot if moving parts and time for things to hash out. 

I'll start off by saying that IMHO we cannot subjectively determine a players worth only by ranking him against other players on the team at other positions.  We both know some positions command higher salaries than others or we wouldn't be paying Chase Daniel $6 mil to be Mitch's QB consultant, dress for games, and then hope like hell he never actually plays.  I don't where that idea came from but I can't accept it that way.

OLB/Edge is one of those positions on defense that commands a premium.  CB is another and at both positions you need two very good players but can only afford one Pro Bowl/All Pro level guy. Mack and Fuller are our two at those positions.  Then IMHO Amukamara and Floyd are your just below that solid dependable vet guys who are just as important overall but who don't ring up the glittery stats your All Pros do.  That's why they're All Pro.

Fuller averages $14 mil a year on his deal while Amukamara gets roughly 35% less at $9 mil.  Using that same formula with Mack averaging $23.5 mil per year Floyd would be in the $15 mil range.  Because Mack is a HOF level player and commands a premium making him the highest paid defender in the NFL I'm gonna use your suggested $20 mil instead.  Then we're at $13 mil for Floyd which is also about the 5th year option cost as well.

Whether we choose to buy into this formula or not you can bet Floyd's agency will be using it AND that the 5th year option price will be what Floyd will be asking for as far as the AAV of his deal.  Those and Franchise Tags typically set the price for longer term deals too and GMs know this.  What's haggled over is the guaranteed money and how it's paid out, any bonuses (roster or performance) and the length of the deal.  Agents drive this bus now.

So I'm fully prepared for paying Floyd what I believe will be in the $12-$13 mil range AAV and that it is not out of line for his performance at his position.

Another factor I'll add is that teams do not pay more for past performance post facto.  That's a done deal.  They pay based in expected future performance of an ascending player and IMHO if a player is no longer ascending and has topped out you don't even pick up the 5th year option period.  I mean why would you and tie yourself into negotiations that will begin millions above what you're prepared to pay the guy?

I posted Floyd's 2018 stats for his final 8 games and for the first time since early in his rookie season he was 100% whole and projected them out for a 16 game season.  He'd have had 8 Sacks/20 QB Hits/16 TFLs/2 Picks.  Those are all impact plays and good enough to be Pro Bowl numbers even without double digit sacks because the rest is way above average for an typical JAG ILB/Edge.  So can we agree that he's still ascending?

Right now Pace seems to and since he won't want to take a $13 mil cap hit for Floyd in 2020 I'm sure they have a deal in mind to offer that's far more cap friendly.  Players play and allow agents to negotiate the business side so I'm looking at this the way I'm fairly certain Floyd's Rep and Pace/Laine are.  And if they feel they can't sign him I'm sure they would ask far more than a late 3rd in trade.  So right now I don't ever see him just walking.

So I don't think we can got at this like we did with Amos or Callahan.  SS is not a premium position we'd over pay and we didn't.  Slot CB is gonna be a another notch down from #2 CB and for us around $5.85 mil AAV.  Pace simply decided he'd prefer to pay Skrine that much (he's about $5.3 mil AAV) but not Callahan due to his injuries and missed games.   So the value of the position was established initially just not the player.

Floyd's extension will be based on more recent deal for top OLBs.  IMHO both parties should be looking to agree on something around what guys like Anthony Barr, Preston Smith, and Justin Houston got which are all in the $12-$13 mil range.  If we can get it done for less great put I wouldn't count on it or getting him on a Bobby Massie kinda deal.  The 5th highest paid RT is at $8.125 mil and Massie is 6th at $7.7 mil.  Conversely the 5th highest paid OLB is Anthony Barr at $13.5 mil with Smith at $13 mil and Houston at $12 mil right behind. That's what Floyd's agent will be targeting.

Just laying out practical number brother.  IMHO Floyd is gonna get more than you would want to go and also IMHO he'll get it elsewhere if not here.

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I’ve been assuming Floyd will be gone after either this or next year unless he really struggles. Look at the contracts GB gave to their edge FA this offseason - Floyd is looking at that, plus inflation. We can’t make that work. 

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2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I’ve been assuming Floyd will be gone after either this or next year unless he really struggles. Look at the contracts GB gave to their edge FA this offseason - Floyd is looking at that, plus inflation. We can’t make that work. 

You'll have to do better than that.  Back it up with some numbers if that's what you believe.

The words can't and won't are two of the easiest ones in the English language to use by those who won't make the effort to make something work. Pace has never shown any inclination to be that type.  If he wants something to work he'll find a way to do it.  We've all seen that multiple times.

If Pace believed as you do there'd be no sense in picking up Floyd's option.  He could have shopped him for a pick with which to replace him with a cheaper rookie.  Floyd is a key piece of this defense just hitting his prime and finally 100% whole.  You don't let players like that walk.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, soulman said:

You'll have to do better than that.  Back it up with some numbers if that's what you believe.

The words can't and won't are two of the easiest ones in the English language to use by those who won't make the effort to make something work. Pace has never shown any inclination to be that type.  If he wants something to work he'll find a way to do it.  We've all seen that multiple times.

If Pace believed as you do there'd be no sense in picking up Floyd's option.  He could have shopped him for a pick with which to replace him with a cheaper rookie.  Floyd is a key piece of this defense just hitting his prime and finally 100% whole.  You don't let players like that walk.

Ok - numbers. Cool. 

Za’darius Smith: 18.5 sacks and 3 FF in 58 games. FA contract: 4 years, $66M ($16.5M AAV)

Leonard Floyd: 15.5 sacks, 1 FF and 1 INT in 38 games. 

Assume Floyd has a year statistically comparable to last year this and next year. We can probably make that work financially next year at $13M for his option year, but assuming a 5% annual increase on FA pass rusher contracts the next 2 years (which may be conservative) Floyd would be looking at $18.2M AAV starting in 2021 (4/72.8). From 2021-2024 Mack’s current cap numbers are $26.6M, $27.1M, $25.5M and $23.25M. By then we will be paying Jackson as possibly the highest paid safety in the league, possibly be paying Mitch $30M or more annually. Can we afford $18M for our #2 edge and $46M annually for 2 non-QBs? Not without severely compromising our ability to keep quality elsewhere. 

Now, consider Floyd’s number beyond 2020 if he makes a jump. Say he plays like 2nd half Floyd going forward. Maybe he gets 11 sacks this year and breaks out. Now the number spikes and maybe he’s a holdout at $13M. At that point what’s best for the team? IMO at that point it could be a Dee Ford or Frank Clark type trade with a corresponding move to pick what we hope is the next Leonard Floyd. To me this is a best case scenario. I think he’s going to be gone anyway but this will allow us to turn him into huge draft capital. If Floyd is a 10-sack guy with continued coverage versatility and elite speed in 2019 we may well be able to turn him into a 1st or 2nd round pick in 2020 where we don’t currently have a first anyway, and to me that’d be in the best interest of the team. It’s not at all a question about wanting to keep him, especially if he breaks out. It’s whether it’s reasonably possible to do so without weakening the team as a whole. I am operating under the assumption that Mitch is getting a top tier extension soon, and Mack is already a top 3 all time salary defensive player. Eddie Jackson is getting Landon Collins money next offseason. I don’t see any way that we can afford to pay 3 players a combined 40% of our cap and then pay Leonard Floyd market level money, or really anything close to it, so unless he makes himself less expendable than arguably the best safety in the NFL or a 25-year old probable franchise QB then he’s the one of those four to go. 

We saw the same thing with the Blackhawks. In this scenario Mack and Mitch contractually are those of Toews and Kane, Jackson is Duncan Keith and one other guy (Hicks or Fuller?) is Hossa. Everyone else is at some point going to have to be in some way expendable. That sucks, but that’s reality. 

Edited by AZBearsFan

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

Ok - numbers. Cool. 

Za’darius Smith: 18.5 sacks and 3 FF in 58 games. FA contract: 4 years, $66M ($16.5M AAV)

Leonard Floyd: 15.5 sacks, 1 FF and 1 INT in 38 games. 

So you use the very highest deal to compare?   You know I already did this part in a previous post didn't you?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/outside-linebacker/

Floyd's extension will be based on more recent deal for top OLBs.  IMHO both parties should be looking to agree on something around what guys like Anthony Barr, Preston Smith, and Justin Houston got which are all in the $12-$13 mil range.  If we can get it done for less great put I wouldn't count on it or getting him on a Bobby Massie kinda deal.  The 5th highest paid RT is at $8.125 mil and Massie is 6th at $7.7 mil.  Conversely the 5th highest paid OLB is Anthony Barr at $13.5 mil with Smith at $13 mil and Houston at $12 mil right behind. That's what Floyd's agent will be targeting.

Looking at OLB deals I removed Mack and Miller as HOF caliber level contracts.  They're outliers.  The next 5 would then be top 5 deals based on AAV.

GB woefully overpaid for Za'Darius Smith and if that's what Floyd is shooting for he needs to be more realistic.  Then next comes Clowney whose on a franchise tag so we can't use it either.  The next three, Barr, Preston Smith, and Houston are about where Floyd should be.

If you average those 3 you get $12.8 mil so round it up to $13 mil AAV on a 4 yr/$52 mil extension.  I believe MadMike already did a pro forma on a deal in this range and you can keep his 2020 cap hit right around the same $5 mil he's at in 2019 if we need to be that low and he'll still take home around $14-$15 mil in salary and bonus keeping him in line with both the option salary and/or a tag but with a much lower cap hit.

In 2021 his salary jumps to maybe $10 mil fully guaranteed and now we've covered all of the $24-$25 mil in guarantees the deal calls for with only around $6 mil of dead cap remaining vs say a $12 mil salary in 2022.  At that point we could move on if necessary but we've kept him through his prime years from age 26-28 while we're also in our prime championship window.  Something along those lines would be doable.

Edited by soulman

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20 hours ago, soulman said:

I'll start off by saying that IMHO we cannot subjectively determine a players worth only by ranking him against other players on the team at other positions.  

OLB/Edge is one of those positions on defense that commands a premium.  CB is another and at both positions you need two very good players but can only afford one Pro Bowl/All Pro level guy. Mack and Fuller are our two at those positions.  Then IMHO Amukamara and Floyd are your just below that solid dependable vet guys who are just as important overall but who don't ring up the glittery stats your All Pros do.  That's why they're All Pro.

Fuller averages $14 mil a year on his deal while Amukamara gets roughly 35% less at $9 mil.  Using that same formula with Mack averaging $23.5 mil per year Floyd would be in the $15 mil range.  Because Mack is a HOF level player and commands a premium making him the highest paid defender in the NFL I'm gonna use your suggested $20 mil instead.  Then we're at $13 mil for Floyd which is also about the 5th year option cost as well.

Whether we choose to buy into this formula or not you can bet Floyd's agency will be using it AND that the 5th year option price will be what Floyd will be asking for as far as the AAV of his deal.  Those and Franchise Tags typically set the price for longer term deals too and GMs know this.  What's haggled over is the guaranteed money and how it's paid out, any bonuses (roster or performance) and the length of the deal.  Agents drive this bus now.

So I'm fully prepared for paying Floyd what I believe will be in the $12-$13 mil range AAV and that it is not out of line for his performance at his position.

Another factor I'll add is that teams do not pay more for past performance post facto.  That's a done deal.  They pay based in expected future performance of an ascending player and IMHO if a player is no longer ascending and has topped out you don't even pick up the 5th year option period.  I mean why would you and tie yourself into negotiations that will begin millions above what you're prepared to pay the guy?

I posted Floyd's 2018 stats for his final 8 games and for the first time since early in his rookie season he was 100% whole and projected them out for a 16 game season.  He'd have had 8 Sacks/20 QB Hits/16 TFLs/2 Picks.  Those are all impact plays and good enough to be Pro Bowl numbers even without double digit sacks because the rest is way above average for an typical JAG ILB/Edge.  So can we agree that he's still ascending?

Right now Pace seems to and since he won't want to take a $13 mil cap hit for Floyd in 2020 I'm sure they have a deal in mind to offer that's far more cap friendly.  Players play and allow agents to negotiate the business side so I'm looking at this the way I'm fairly certain Floyd's Rep and Pace/Laine are.  And if they feel they can't sign him I'm sure they would ask far more than a late 3rd in trade.  So right now I don't ever see him just walking.

So I don't think we can got at this like we did with Amos or Callahan.  SS is not a premium position we'd over pay and we didn't.  Slot CB is gonna be a another notch down from #2 CB and for us around $5.85 mil AAV.  Pace simply decided he'd prefer to pay Skrine that much (he's about $5.3 mil AAV) but not Callahan due to his injuries and missed games.   So the value of the position was established initially just not the player.

Floyd's extension will be based on more recent deal for top OLBs.  IMHO both parties should be looking to agree on something around what guys like Anthony Barr, Preston Smith, and Justin Houston got which are all in the $12-$13 mil range.  If we can get it done for less great put I wouldn't count on it or getting him on a Bobby Massie kinda deal.  The 5th highest paid RT is at $8.125 mil and Massie is 6th at $7.7 mil.  Conversely the 5th highest paid OLB is Anthony Barr at $13.5 mil with Smith at $13 mil and Houston at $12 mil right behind. That's what Floyd's agent will be targeting.

Just laying out practical number brother.  IMHO Floyd is gonna get more than you would want to go and also IMHO he'll get it elsewhere if not here.

You have to weigh their impact on the team and the cost they are going to have. The aforementioned players are all better than Floyd and have more impact than him, so I'm not going out of my way to make any formulas or anything. He is more easily replaceable than Mack, Jackson, Fuller, Smith ,etc. EDGE or not. GMs have to make these kinds of choices all the time.  

 

Floyd is too injury prone for me to call him dependable. He was mediocre while his hand was in a club (which is understandable) and has a history if injuries. I'm not sure at any point he has been worth $13mil per season, so I don't see why to assume he will be on the coming few years. I'm mot sure we could get a 3rd for him in a trade either. 

Past play dictates their belief in future value. Floyd had a great 8 game stretch on the best defense in the NFL, but has been massively inconsistent prior to that stretch. Is he benefiting from the top cast in the NFL or truly a key cog? I think he is benefiting from the team a bit more than the team has benefited from him.

It is fine to project stats, but you said something huge right before - "for the first time since early in his rookie season he was 100% whole." That is a huge red flag to me. He has really only been healthy for around half of the games the Bears have had since drafting him. Wooten and others had one really good looking season, I'm not going to be too hopeful after only a stretch of 8 games. If he continues the play this season, then I'll come around. 

If Floyd is an ascending player I don't see why players like Houston should be considered in the contract talks. He is aging. Here are the deals he will be looking at if he is the ascending player that is assumed -

Dee Ford (28) -- Signed 5-year, $87.5M deal with SF - $17.5M average

Trey Flowers (25) -- Signed 5-year, $90M deal with DET - $18M average

Preston Smith (26) -- Signed 4-year, $52M deal with GB - $13M average 

Za'Darius Smith (26) -- Signed 4-year, $66M deal with GB - $16.5M average

 

Floyd is, as you said, an EDGE which commands a premium. Preston was the lowest AAV but Floyd is comparable to the others as well, so I'm not sure why I'd hope he would accept $12-13M per, especially if he is actually ascending. If so Floyd's agent is pretty poor at his job, or Floyd is simply taking a discount to chase a ring. 

 

All in all, I'm not looking just at positions, but value to the team. I fully believe there are numerous guys that are simply better and more important to the defense than Floyd. Mack, Hicks, Jackson, Fuller, Smith, Goldman,and arguably Amukamara. EDGE or not, I'm not paying him more than all of them. 

 

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On 5/1/2019 at 12:57 PM, WindyCity said:

NY Post Article

The rankings are based on: how many games the draft pick has played, Pro Bowl appearances, first-team All-Pro selections and awards like MVP and Rookie of the Year. We also factored in how much the team has won during the five years, because players on losing teams tend to have an easier path to playing time.

https://nypost.com/2019/04/21/nfl-draft-five-year-analysis-giants-one-of-the-surprises/

I stopped reading when they had the raiders as the 5th best. They have drafted horribly outside of a few homeruns 

The niners will trade you Robbie Gould and a 7th for Kyle long and a 4th

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Posted (edited)
13 hours ago, soulman said:

So you use the very highest deal to compare?   You know I already did this part in a previous post didn't you?

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/outside-linebacker/

Floyd's extension will be based on more recent deal for top OLBs.  IMHO both parties should be looking to agree on something around what guys like Anthony Barr, Preston Smith, and Justin Houston got which are all in the $12-$13 mil range.  If we can get it done for less great put I wouldn't count on it or getting him on a Bobby Massie kinda deal.  The 5th highest paid RT is at $8.125 mil and Massie is 6th at $7.7 mil.  Conversely the 5th highest paid OLB is Anthony Barr at $13.5 mil with Smith at $13 mil and Houston at $12 mil right behind. That's what Floyd's agent will be targeting.

Looking at OLB deals I removed Mack and Miller as HOF caliber level contracts.  They're outliers.  The next 5 would then be top 5 deals based on AAV.

GB woefully overpaid for Za'Darius Smith and if that's what Floyd is shooting for he needs to be more realistic.  Then next comes Clowney whose on a franchise tag so we can't use it either.  The next three, Barr, Preston Smith, and Houston are about where Floyd should be.

If you average those 3 you get $12.8 mil so round it up to $13 mil AAV on a 4 yr/$52 mil extension.  I believe MadMike already did a pro forma on a deal in this range and you can keep his 2020 cap hit right around the same $5 mil he's at in 2019 if we need to be that low and he'll still take home around $14-$15 mil in salary and bonus keeping him in line with both the option salary and/or a tag but with a much lower cap hit.

In 2021 his salary jumps to maybe $10 mil fully guaranteed and now we've covered all of the $24-$25 mil in guarantees the deal calls for with only around $6 mil of dead cap remaining vs say a $12 mil salary in 2022.  At that point we could move on if necessary but we've kept him through his prime years from age 26-28 while we're also in our prime championship window.  Something along those lines would be doable.

I used Smith’s deal because he most closely compares to Floyd, not because it’s the most expensive. I don’t think you can compare him to Barr because Barr isn’t an edge rusher, and Houston is 30 and has been declining for 2 years. Those are apples to oranges to me. Smith is the bottom end of that edge rusher range to me, and again inflation matters too, plus we won’t know what other options may be available. Either way, spending 14-16M annually on your second edge rusher is going to cost you valuable player(s) elsewhere. 

Again, I don’t WANT to get rid of him. I just don’t want to expect that he’s still here in 2 years because I see that as reasonably unlikely. 

Edited by AZBearsFan

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15 hours ago, Sugashane said:

You have to weigh their impact on the team and the cost they are going to have. The aforementioned players are all better than Floyd and have more impact than him, so I'm not going out of my way to make any formulas or anything. He is more easily replaceable than Mack, Jackson, Fuller, Smith ,etc. EDGE or not. GMs have to make these kinds of choices all the time.  

 

Floyd is too injury prone for me to call him dependable. He was mediocre while his hand was in a club (which is understandable) and has a history if injuries. I'm not sure at any point he has been worth $13mil per season, so I don't see why to assume he will be on the coming few years. I'm mot sure we could get a 3rd for him in a trade either. 

Past play dictates their belief in future value. Floyd had a great 8 game stretch on the best defense in the NFL, but has been massively inconsistent prior to that stretch. Is he benefiting from the top cast in the NFL or truly a key cog? I think he is benefiting from the team a bit more than the team has benefited from him.

It is fine to project stats, but you said something huge right before - "for the first time since early in his rookie season he was 100% whole." That is a huge red flag to me. He has really only been healthy for around half of the games the Bears have had since drafting him. Wooten and others had one really good looking season, I'm not going to be too hopeful after only a stretch of 8 games. If he continues the play this season, then I'll come around. 

If Floyd is an ascending player I don't see why players like Houston should be considered in the contract talks. He is aging. Here are the deals he will be looking at if he is the ascending player that is assumed -

Dee Ford (28) -- Signed 5-year, $87.5M deal with SF - $17.5M average

Trey Flowers (25) -- Signed 5-year, $90M deal with DET - $18M average

Preston Smith (26) -- Signed 4-year, $52M deal with GB - $13M average 

Za'Darius Smith (26) -- Signed 4-year, $66M deal with GB - $16.5M average

 

Floyd is, as you said, an EDGE which commands a premium. Preston was the lowest AAV but Floyd is comparable to the others as well, so I'm not sure why I'd hope he would accept $12-13M per, especially if he is actually ascending. If so Floyd's agent is pretty poor at his job, or Floyd is simply taking a discount to chase a ring. 

 

All in all, I'm not looking just at positions, but value to the team. I fully believe there are numerous guys that are simply better and more important to the defense than Floyd. Mack, Hicks, Jackson, Fuller, Smith, Goldman,and arguably Amukamara. EDGE or not, I'm not paying him more than all of them. 

 

I sense we're not gonna agree Shane.  Floyd is actually ranked with other OLBs as opposed to being a pure edge rusher.  Given that classification I used the Spotrac numbers for OLBs to arrive at a guesstimate of where Floyd will be dollar wise compared to recently signed FA OLBs.

I eliminated Mack and Miller because he's not in that same league and also eliminated Clowney since his salary is based on his tag. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/rankings/average/outside-linebacker/

The top four are then as posted below.   IMHO and others, GB overpaid for Z'Smith but even if I include his deal the AAV of these 4 deals is $13.75 mil which is only about a half mil above Floyd's 5th year option cost.  Remove Z'Smith and the other three are at $12.8 mil AAV and what I'm saying is I believe this is the range Pace will be negotiating around.  Maybe he can squeeze it down to $12 mil but anything lower than that I would not expect.

No matter what I may think as a fan when I put on my Agent vs GM hat I have to see things the way they might not how I wish they were and ignore the noise.  If anyone who thinks we can sign Floyd to a 4 year extension for $10 mil AAV or less isn't being realistic whereas $12-$13 mil probably is.  Based on his age and his upside that's where we are but he's gonna have to stay healthy and keep ascending in 2019 to earn it.  JMHO

3 Za'Darius Smith

Za'Darius Smith

Outside Linebacker
$16,500,000
4 Jadeveon Clowney

Jadeveon Clowney

Outside Linebacker
$15,967,200
5 Anthony Barr

Anthony Barr

Outside Linebacker
$13,500,000
6 Preston Smith

Preston Smith

Outside Linebacker
$13,000,000
7 Justin Houston

Justin Houston

Outside Linebacker

 

 

 

$12,000,000

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3 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I used Smith’s deal because he most closely compares to Floyd, not because it’s the most expensive. I don’t think you can compare him to Barr because Barr isn’t an edge rusher, and Houston is 30 and has been declining for 2 years. Those are apples to oranges to me. Smith is the bottom end of that edge rusher range to me, and again inflation matters too, plus we won’t know what other options may be available. Either way, spending 14-16M annually on your second edge rusher is going to cost you valuable player(s) elsewhere. 

Again, I don’t WANT to get rid of him. I just don’t want to expect that he’s still here in 2 years because I see that as reasonably unlikely. 

And neither is Floyd.  He's seen as an OLB and currently the 29th highest paid OLB.  So I used numbers for the top 5, excluding Mack and Miller for obvious reasons, and also tossed out Clowney because he's been tagged.  But even I included him it wouldn't alter the average much.  We're still looking at $13 mil AAV give or take a mil either way.

I can't realistically look at this as a fan.  I have to see it as Floyd's agent will see it and IMHO $13 mil which is also nearly equal to his 5th year option is where negotiations will get serious if both sides want to get an extension done.  What Pace would like to pay is less relevant.  He's smart enough to know that if he doesn't get a deal done for something in that neighborhood someone else will pay it or even more.

He's not gonna want a $15 mil plus cap hit for Floyd in 2020 so the smart thing to do is get him to agree to a cap friendly extension with the guarantees covered in years one and two and little enough dead cap vs salary in year three  that he has a back door if Floyd fails to live up to the deal.  We can talk about a 4 yr/$50 mil or so extension all day long but all it's actually worth is what's guaranteed and that's about 50% of the total.

So.....the only honest and accurate way I can see this is if Pace wants to keep him he's gonna have to pay to do it.  And it doesn't matter what we think or how many stats from others we post.  They're never gonna tell the whole story.  Floyd is an integral part of this defense who has value beyond just his sack totals.  Unless we can replace him he's our starter and he's either gonna get paid or leave via trade or he walks as a FA.  It is what it is.

Leonard Floyd

Leonard Floyd

Outside Linebacker
$3,945,715

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6 minutes ago, soulman said:

So.....the only honest and accurate way I can see this is if Pace wants to keep him he's gonna have to pay to do it.  And it doesn't matter what we think or how many stats from others we post.  They're never gonna tell the whole story.  Floyd is an integral part of this defense who has value beyond just his sack totals.  Unless we can replace him he's our starter and he's either gonna get paid or leave via trade or he walks as a FA.  It is what it is.

How is this not exactly what I was saying before? We just seem to disagree on where Floyd likely is on Pace’s “can’t afford to lose this guy” list. To me if we pay Floyd that means we are losing Robinson, Fuller or Jackson after 2020, and given the presence of Mack I think Floyd (sho I like A LOT) is the most expendable of that group. There’s only so much money to go around. 

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Posted (edited)
35 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

How is this not exactly what I was saying before? We just seem to disagree on where Floyd likely is on Pace’s “can’t afford to lose this guy” list. To me if we pay Floyd that means we are losing Robinson, Fuller or Jackson after 2020, and given the presence of Mack I think Floyd (sho I like A LOT) is the most expendable of that group. There’s only so much money to go around. 

Robinson is a possibility which may be why Pace is still stocking up on WRs but I would disagree on Jackson and Fuller.  The other unknown at this time is just how the new CBA will impact the cap in 2021.  It's currently increasing by about 6% per year so even without any change in the shared percentage we're looking at a cap of around $200 mil in 2020 and $212 mil in 2021.  This year it was roughly $188 mil.

Even as little as 1% boost in the sharing percentage would boost it to around $225 mil or more and IMHO that much is a given.  Just using those number that's $37 mil more in cap in 2021 than in 2019 and I'm not even projecting any cap carry overs or how the replacement of higher priced vets by younger draftees and UDFAs may add to that.  We may not see this as fans but sure as hell Pace and Laine do.

IMHO those two won't allow us to end up cap poor with having options just as we had this year.

I don't doubt we'll lose a few key vets but IMHO Pace will keep his defense as intact as he can because defense wins championships and those guys would be much harder to replace than some of the offensive skills positions.  And in addition Floyd, and Jackson are his own draftees and Fuller is pretty much a lock through 2020 unless we want to take a $9 mil dead cap hit.  Matching GBs offer pretty much assured that.  After 2020 who knows?

Most of the deals that are written end up being 2 years in length or 3 years max wherein all of the guaranteed money is paid out and dead cap shrinks as salary escalates so then it's all about earning your keep, be asked to restructure (as Long did) or be released and replaced by someone with a more cap friendly deal.  So I'm already prepared to lose some guys maybe as early as 2020 but I don't see Floyd being one of them.

One advantage Pace has is that all he's done is exercise his option on Floyd so that he can see how he performs in 2019 and that will surely enter into the negotiations.  Will he continue to ascend or will he plateau and hit his ultimate ceiling?  But in his case I'd also be cautious not to weight sacks to heavily if he's still being used in coverage and as a "spy" for mobile QBs and screen passes as much as he was under Fangio.  JMHO

Edited by soulman

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