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2019 NFL season predictions


SBLIII

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5 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

QBR isnt the same subjective nonsense it used to be.  It actually is a blackbox stat, and PFR uses it too.  It's still flawed but no so more than any other stat.  And if you are going to say some nonsense like the dude is 10th in the NFC, then you have to justify how he was 4th in NFL (2nd in the NFC) in QBR

It is. Wilson had 35 TD and 7 INT. 8.08 ypa attempt and a 65.6 completion percentage and was way behind Trubisky who had 24 and 12, 7.43 and 66.6.

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8 hours ago, Hunter2_1 said:

I reckon so :D. BUF and NYJ expected to be at least .500 teams this year, I guess - both with solid drafts and some talent, plus actual QBs now. I think Miami may surprise people.

Ultimately though, another stroll for NE...apart from Miami away of course, which is kryptonite. 

the east should be more legit, but in two many years in the past it has been pathetic. Almost a blemish on the pats resume if you think of it. 

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32 minutes ago, 3rivers said:

the east should be more legit, but in two many years in the past it has been pathetic. Almost a blemish on the pats resume if you think of it. 

Possibly, but there's more to it than meets the eye. Since TB entered league, we have a near identical record vs Div than vs Everyone else.

BUF have above .500 win rate vs Carolina, Denver, Green Bay, Indie, Jackonville, KC. As another example. 

Pats, since BB took over, vs..

AFC South .820

NFC South .773

AFC North .762

AFC East .741

NFC West .737

NFC North .727

NFC East .700

AFC West .660

 

I still think it's the easier division, but I think NE would probably fare just as well in others', maybe with the exception of AFCW

Back on topic;

NE - 12-4

BUF - 8-8

MIA - 7-9

NYJ - 6-10

Edited by Hunter2_1
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20 hours ago, Thomas5737 said:

It is. Wilson had 35 TD and 7 INT. 8.08 ypa attempt and a 65.6 completion percentage and was way behind Trubisky who had 24 and 12, 7.43 and 66.6.

Wilson was obviously a better passer in 2018 than Tru, QBR also factors in running, weights 3rd down efficiency (where Tru was at his best), and 4th qtr game on the line performance.  It's a blackbox so we dont know all of the math involved, and I'm not going to argue that Tru was a better QB than Wilson last year.  But again if somebody is going to make a ridiculous statement, such as "Bears dont have a QB" or "Trubisky was the 10th best QB in the NFC" than they should be able to refute it

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Mitch Trubisky on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down

CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG ATT YDS AVG TD LNG
111 169 1,248 65.7 7.4 11 6 55 6 94.5 25 164 6.6 1 39
108 155 1,260 69.7 8.1 6 3 70 4 98.9 17 102 6.0 1 23
68 107 697 63.6 6.5 7 3 40 12 92.3 24 152 6.3 1 17

 

Russell Wilson on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down

CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG ATT YDS AVG TD LNG
98 147 1,185 66.7 8.1 7 3 66 13 98.6 32 136 4.3 0 26
104 148 1,211 70.3 8.2 10 1 51 11 114.4 24 171 7.1 0 40
75 127 996 59.1 7.8 16 3 54 26 113.7 10 63 6.3 0 19


Their Rushing stats are more or less the same save TD but Russ still had 8 more total TD either way.

QBR is a bogus stat.

 

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Trubisky for me is kinda like Alex Smith (minus his outlier outstanding 2017 season), not in their style but rather their level of play.

They are not bad QBs, I guess you could even call them decent, but you are just very unlikely to win a SB with one of those guys.

That's what I mean when I said you don't have a QB. It means your team will always be limited by your QB.

And no, I dont think Trubisky will improve much on what he has already shown. I actually would not be surprised if he had a worse season this year than last year.

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5 hours ago, Superman(DH23) said:

72.8

 

What is this rating then? Sorted by 'Rate' on QBs on NFL.com.

 

 

3 Drew Brees NO QB 364 489 74.4 32.6 3,992 8.2 266.1 32 5 199 40.7 72T 58 6 17 115.7
4 Patrick Mahomes KC QB 383 580 66.0 36.2 5,097 8.8 318.6 50 12 237 40.9 89T 75 15 26 113.8
5 Kyle Allen CAR QB 20 31 64.5 15.5 266 8.6 133.0 2 0 11 35.5 53T 4 1 0 113.1
6 Mike Glennon ARI QB 15 21 71.4 10.5 174 8.3 87.0 1 0 8 38.1 26 1 0 1 112.0
7 Russell Wilson SEA QB 280 427 65.6 26.7 3,448 8.1 215.5 35 7 156 36.5 66 47 13 51 110.9
8 Garrett Gilbert CAR QB 2 3 66.7 3.0 40 13.3 40.0 0 0 1 33.3 31 1 0 1 109.7
9 Matt Ryan ATL QB 422 608 69.4 38.0 4,924 8.1 307.8 35 7 236 38.8 75T 56 9 42 108.1
10 Philip Rivers LAC QB 347 508 68.3 31.8 4,308 8.5 269.2 32 12 213 41.9 75T 60 10 32 105.5
11 Deshaun Watson HOU QB 345 505 68.3 31.6 4,165 8.2 260.3 26 9 202 40.0 73T 51 8 62 103.1
12 Carson Wentz PHI QB 279 401 69.6 36.5 3,074 7.7 279.5 21 7 159 39.7 58 37 5 31 102.2
13 Jared Goff LA QB 364 561 64.9 35.1 4,688 8.4 293.0 32 12 233 41.5 70T 69 9 33 101.1
14 Ryan Fitzpatrick TB QB 164 246 66.7 30.8 2,366 9.6 295.8 17 12 113 45.9 75T 37 8 14 100.4
15 Kirk Cousins MIN QB 425 606 70.1 37.9 4,298 7.1 268.6 30 10 218 36.0 75T 47 7 40 99.7
16 Andrew Luck IND QB 430 639 67.3 39.9 4,593 7.2 287.1 39 15 236 36.9 68T 53 7 18 98.7
17 Chad Henne KC QB 2 3 66.7 3.0 29 9.7 29.0 0 0 2 66.7 22 1 0 0 97.9
18 Tom Brady NE QB 375 570 65.8 35.6 4,355 7.6 272.2 29 11 205 36.0 63T 53 8 21 97.7
19 Aaron Rodgers GB QB 372 597 62.3 37.3 4,442 7.4 277.6 25 2 200 33.5 75T 55 16 49 97.6
20 Dak Prescott DAL QB 356 526 67.7 32.9 3,885 7.4 242.8 22 8 184 35.0 90T 39 9 56 96.9
21 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 452 675 67.0 42.2 5,129 7.6 320.6 34 16 248 36.7 97T 61 16 24 96.5
22 Nick Foles PHI QB 141 195 72.3 39.0 1,413 7.2 282.6 7 4 60 30.8 83T 14 4 9 96.0
23 Mitchell Trubisky CHI QB 289 434 66.6 31.0 3,223 7.4 230.2 24 12 151 34.8 70T 40 10 24 95.4
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Just now, Hunter2_1 said:

 

Passer efficiency rating, a flawed stat as well with it's own merits.  QBR was originally intended to be an answer to the flaws of passer efficiency rating.  It initially included a substantial subjective component that seemed to be tremendous confirmation bias, has since been tweaked considerably and is now a legit stat

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3 hours ago, Danger said:

Mitch Trubisky on 1st, 2nd and 3rd down

CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG ATT YDS AVG TD LNG
111 169 1,248 65.7 7.4 11 6 55 6 94.5 25 164 6.6 1 39
108 155 1,260 69.7 8.1 6 3 70 4 98.9 17 102 6.0 1 23
68 107 697 63.6 6.5 7 3 40 12 92.3 24 152 6.3 1 17

 

Russell Wilson on 1st, 2nd, and 3rd down

CMP ATT YDS CMP% AVG TD INT LNG SACK RTG ATT YDS AVG TD LNG
98 147 1,185 66.7 8.1 7 3 66 13 98.6 32 136 4.3 0 26
104 148 1,211 70.3 8.2 10 1 51 11 114.4 24 171 7.1 0 40
75 127 996 59.1 7.8 16 3 54 26 113.7 10 63 6.3 0 19


Their Rushing stats are more or less the same save TD but Russ still had 8 more total TD either way.

QBR is a bogus stat.

 

Look at the difference in sacks on 3rd down.  3rd down eff means picking up the first down, which includes with your legs.  

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4 minutes ago, BayRaider said:

With updated rosters including draft picks, Madden thinks the Rams will blow out the Jets in the Super Bowl. Patriots will go 8-8 and Tom Brady retires. 

Ahh Madden, don’t change. 

I didn't know winning 3-0 was a considered a blowout win?

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