2018 Draft Picks, and where they stand today

[HeydudemanG]

I was just talking to my co-worker and he's not a football guy but he was saying how the Vikings had a crappy draft last year. So I looked it up and saw a lot of repeat positions drafted this year.

So my question to you guys is how do you think our 2018 draft went? Whats the future hold for our players drafted in 2018? And what draft grade do you give us a season later for the vikings draft picks in 2018?

• Mike Hughes, CB, Central Florida - Selected with pick #30
• Brian O’Neill, OT, Pittsburgh - Selected with pick #62
• Jalyn Holmes, DE, Ohio State - Selected with pick #102
• Tyler Conklin, TE, Central Michigan - Selected with pick #157
• Daniel Carlson, K, Auburn - Selected with pick #167
• Colby Gossett, G, Appalachian State - Selected with pick #213
• Ade Aruna, DE, Tulane - Selected with pick #218
• Devante Downs, LB, California-Berkeley - Selected with pick #225

 

I know not amazing but a good point for discussion.

[AP_allday2869]

Its pretty rough outside of O'Niell

[y*so*blu]

Hughes was coming along well until his injury, O'Neill has been okay ... and that's about it. Clicked the wrong button; I meant to give it a C.

[vike daddy]

I don't think the Carlson guy is going to make it on the team, long term.

[Cearbhall]

The grade is still incomplete, but early returns don't look good.  If Hughes works out and becomes a starter that earns a second contract with this team that alone will bring the grade up to a C as long as O'Neill is playing at least average as a starter on our line too.

Anything above that and the grade would only improve.  At this early stage it doesn't look good.  Looking back the previous couple years to see how drafts that have had more time would grade and the previous couple aren't real good either.

2017 might be a complete bust of a draft if Cook can't stay healthy.  I wouldn't be shocked if not a single one of those guys gets a second contract with the team. While not shocking, it would be surprising given Cook's talent and a few others that look useful even if not core players. Gadeon is a mediocre third LB at this point. Johnson still hasn't become a reliable backup. Elflein has been starting but his play hasn't helped the grade of the draft. It looks like the team shouldn't have been starting him but had to for lack of decent options. These three have time to earn positive credit for the 2017 draft still. You can pretty much already write off the last seven picks.  The best of them was Odenigbo but even he has already been released from the team. It is hard to count his second tour towards success of the draft even if he becomes a solid backup.  I give this draft a D currently with potential for the final grade being an F.

2016 would be terrible if not for out second 6th rounder and two 7th rounders. That is a year that shows that later picks may be worth the effort to accumulate. Alexander looks like a decent pick int he second round but all the other picks through our first sixth rounder are fugly in 2016. Still, given the last three I would have to give 2016 a grade above C (that meant average when I got grades, not like today where average seems to be a B).

Overall, a good draft should give a team at least two guys that are at least average starters by the end of year four that the team keeps on a second contract.  One of those guys should be good enough to get a third contract. A third guy from the draft should be solid depth that the team keeps around on a second contract as depth.  It is hard for me to give a draft anything better than a C until I see something like that, which usually means drafts start out as incomplete and work their way up towards a C and possibly even higher if things work out well.

For an example of a draft that has shown to be better than average look at 2015. That year is looking like an A. Four guys that are above average starters by the end of their rookie contract. Three of them the team already has extended as core players of the future and a fourth, their first round pick, looks like he is worth extending as another core player going forward.  That is so much success that they may not be able to keep the group together for cost reasons.  While the story isn't finished being written after four years it is hard to imagine this not being an A graded draft when all is said and done. And by graded an A, I mean at least a top 15% draft, not the top 50% like some instructors hand out to students nowadays.

Since grading scales change with time, for clarity this is roughly how I divide the letter grades:

A - top 15%
B: 16% - 35%
C: 36% - 70%
D: 71% - 90%
F: bottom 10% draft.

Right now, I have 2018 at a D, but it is still earning points towards better grades.  Only time will tell if it gets there.

[Dolmonite26]

A top heavy class that has a chance to boast two future team cornerstones in Huges and O'niel, but outside of that things are pretty rough.

Two players are already off the roster; Aruna and Downs will fighting some tough competition for their spots this off-season and the Irv Smith selection is sizable indictment on Conklins future.

If Downs is a reliable backup and valuable special teamer the team gains a greater return on their investment.

Aruna is the dark horse to make this class shine, which isn't to say I think this will or will not happen, but if he pulls a Steven Weatherly (or better) that will provide a notable improvement to the hindsight view of this class.

The only remaining player is Holmes, who I have some hope for, but its pretty hard to say at this point what he'll be. The team not seeming to prioritize DT in this years draft is potentially a positive sign toward his outlook, but that can also be said of a few other players in the position group (or just simply isn't the case)

If he is a notable contributor in a rotation at 3T that's a nice boost for the overall look at the class and if he is to somehow win the inevitable competition for the starting spot (in more than just a nominal sense too) then that would push this class to an overly solid level if not bordering on great.

Lots of "if" there but given the weight of impact that two, maybe three, of those players could have it has a chance to be a well regarded class even if the later rounds didn't pan out so well.

[Vikes_Bolts1228]

I thought about a C since we two solid starters (Hughes/O'Neill) but even though it's not the draft, we have potential for a 3rd solid starter (Holton Hill) as a UDFA.

Going with a B I guess just because of Hill even though he wasn't actually a pick.

[Dolmonite26]

8 minutes ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

I thought about a C since we two solid starters (Hughes/O'Neill) but even though it's not the draft, we have potential for a 3rd solid starter (Holton Hill) as a UDFA.

Going with a B I guess just because of Hill even though he wasn't actually a pick.

I'm not sure I understand why UDFAs should be included in the overall grade, but even if they are; how would this class be considered that far above average (C is average imo) in terms of use of resources?

[Vikes_Bolts1228]

21 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

I'm not sure I understand why UDFAs should be included in the overall grade, but even if they are; how would this class be considered that far above average (C is average imo) in terms of use of resources?

Because I'd be more than happy with a long-term starting tackle & cornerback out of the draft. Two HUGE positions for a team. I'm not going to complain too much if our 4th round pick isn't a rotational guy when we nailed down two big positions.

Also, go back and read it again. I gave the DRAFT a C and bumped it up to a B because of Hill in UDFA.

And there's no rules to this so I'm including UDFA's. It's essentially an extension of the draft in my opinion. You still need to scout and identify college players that you think could do something for your team except you're  fighting 31 other teams at the same time for that player. I don't care how we got the rookie if he can help our team. If he can, good job Rick for picking the right UDFA.

Draft grades a year out are so completely useless anyways. This discussion is literally something to pass the time until July.

If I were you, I'd question the people who gave the draft an A. lol

Edited May 4, 2019 by Vikes_Bolts1228

[Dolmonite26]

3 minutes ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

Draft grades a year out are so completely useless anyways. 

You can still evaluate their process and strategy for the draft and have a year's worth of data to contrast that too.

Sure we don't have a definitive verdict, as that takes years to come to, but we can still look back one year wiser.

[Vikes_Bolts1228]

6 minutes ago, Dolmonite26 said:

You can still evaluate their process and strategy for the draft and have a year's worth of data to contrast that too.

Sure we don't have a definitive verdict, as that takes years to come to, but we can still look back one year wiser.

Sure it's fun, time killing conversation but that's about it.

 

Edited May 4, 2019 by Vikes_Bolts1228

[Dolmonite26]

15 minutes ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

If I were you, I'd worry more about the people who gave the draft an A. lol

I'm not worried about anything, just curious how you came to your conclusion.

[Vikes_Bolts1228]

1 minute ago, Dolmonite26 said:

I'm not worried about anything, just curious how you came to your conclusion.

Starting tackle. Looks like two starting CBs.

Works for me!

Now, can we both question the 3 people who gave it an "A" haha

Edited May 4, 2019 by Vikes_Bolts1228

[Dolmonite26]

2 minutes ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

Now, can we both question the 3 people who gave it an "A" haha

Tyler Conklin's mom?

[Cearbhall]

38 minutes ago, Vikes_Bolts1228 said:

Now, can we both question the 3 people who gave it an "A"

Rather than question them, I am just going to admire the optimism of @perrynoid and @DisplacedViking. I hope they're right, and there is a chance that they will eventually be right.  I just can't find those results yet and I grade on results not on hope for future potential.

Also, like I said I would have to convince myself that the Vikings 2018 draft was better than 27 other teams given what an 'A' means to me.  Or conversely, if I find five other teams that have gotten more production out of their 2018 draft I couldn't justify giving an 'A' to the Vikings.  Right now, I don't think finding 5 teams that have gotten more production after two years would be a very hard exercise (though admittedly I haven't done the exercise).

I am not sure those two grew up in the same grading system.  I took a graduate course in genomics ~15 years ago at the University of Minnesota and that was a walk in the park to get an 'A' in compared to how I remembered things -- only about 15 hours of work a week for an 'A' in that graduate class.  Pretty sure 15 hours of work per week wouldn't have been such a high grade 20 years earlier.  By now, who knows how easy it is to "earn" those grades.  On the other hand, I can't rule out that the pendulum came back in the last 15 years making the grade mean something again.  Though, judging by the Winona State kid I hired a few years ago with the impressive GPA, an A in a class means almost nothing at that school.

You two didn't go to Winona State, did you?