What the Bears’ 2019 draft means for WR Taylor Gabriel

[Sugashane]

2 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Gabriel caught everything in sight last year and we're already looking forward to cutting him in favor for a UDFA receiver. 

Never change, Chicago. 

 

I see what you're saying, but let's be honest here. Outside of a handful of great grabs he had his catch percentage inflated due to the short routes and lack of attention directed at him compared to Robinson, Burton, Miller and Cohen. He had over half his games this year averaging under 8 yards per catch. Add in how he is a total non-threat in the redzone (only caught a TD in one of the 17 total games he played last year) and it isn't crazy that people doubt his worth. He is a solid depth guy, but he isn't getting paid like a 3/4 receiver. He is getting paid in the top 40 in AAV for WRs, and his stats were padded due to how often we got conservative and dumped off to him on quick passes. If we are wanting guys to catch 7 passes for 50 yards, then we have other cheaper alternatives that should be able to match that kind of production with the attention Robinson/Burton/Miller/Cohen attract.

In short, a lot of his production was due to Howard being a nonfactor in the receiving game and Shaheen being down. Two positions that should have been security blankets weren't there, so he got most of his catches for minimal gains to take up their slack.

As for cutting him in favor of an UDFA, that isn't even close to what is happening. Hall is being talked about as a bottom-of-the-depth chart player, as a 5 or 6 (I'm counting Cohen in that group as he is likely to be used out wide even more than in the backfield). If it is even close between him and Hall then Gabriel isn't worth near what he is making. What is being talked about is that the WR group has a ton of depth, and his production doesn't really match the contract he is due for - it is a mediocre value to my eyes and is just potentially taking away reps from guys like Miller, Cohen and Ridley. Those are the kids that have the high ceilings and need reps.

 

If you don't see enough progression then you might keep him after this season, but if his $6-7 mil per year can help extend Jackson, Whitehair, Smith, or someone much better then let Miller, Cohen and Ridley take the load that once was Gabriel's and spread it out among them.

Edited May 10, 2019 by Sugashane

[dll2000]

10 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Gabriel caught everything in sight last year and we're already looking forward to cutting him in favor for a UDFA receiver. 

Never change, Chicago. 

LOL

It's a 2020 hypothetical based on a lot of ifs.

 

[soulman]

13 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Gabriel caught everything in sight last year and we're already looking forward to cutting him in favor for a UDFA receiver. 

Never change, Chicago. 

Next year......maybe.  Not a sure thing though.

Ya' have to admit he's a higher profile cap casualty in 2020 than some.

[Heinz D.]

18 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Gabriel caught everything in sight last year and we're already looking forward to cutting him in favor for a UDFA receiver. 

Never change, Chicago. 

I really, really, like Gabriel. He signed, his contract should be honored. He's been a good contributor, and will probably be better next year. I don't WANT him to be cut...I'm simply observing what Pace's moves have set up as "tea leaves". 

[beardown3231]

4 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

I really, really, like Gabriel. He signed, his contract should be honored. He's been a good contributor, and will probably be better next year. I don't WANT him to be cut...I'm simply observing what Pace's moves have set up as "tea leaves". 

Because he signed an older receiver to a 2 year deal, used a fourth round pick on a possession receiver and took a UDFA flier on a mediocre yet fast receiver?

[Heinz D.]

13 hours ago, beardown3231 said:

Because he signed an older receiver to a 2 year deal, used a fourth round pick on a possession receiver and took a UDFA flier on a mediocre yet fast receiver?

Yeah. He also drafted Miller in the second round last year, and Miller will end up as the #2 this year, if not #1. If Hall shows any signs of improvement, both on and off the field, I can see Pace thinking Gabriel is simply too expensive to keep around. Can't you? 

[Sugashane]

3 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Yeah. He also drafted Miller in the second round last year, and Miller will end up as the #2 this year, if not #1. If Hall shows any signs of improvement, both on and off the field, I can see Pace thinking Gabriel is simply too expensive to keep around. Can't you? 

Hell, Gabriel was an UDFA himself. 

[Heinz D.]

2 minutes ago, Sugashane said:

Hell, Gabriel was an UDFA himself. 

I forgot all about that...

[beardown3231]

4 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

Yeah. He also drafted Miller in the second round last year, and Miller will end up as the #2 this year, if not #1. If Hall shows any signs of improvement, both on and off the field, I can see Pace thinking Gabriel is simply too expensive to keep around. Can't you? 

Sure I could, but we're talking about a UDFA. I know some of these guys pan out but the vast majority don't, and the Bears' window is 2019, 2020 and perhaps 2021. Gabriel was really good last year all things considered and figures to be again this year. It's fun to talk about UDFA's but considering Hall will most likely suck, I'm going to hold off on the idea of cutting Gabriel for the guy. I'll cross that bridge in the unlikely event that it comes.

Edited May 11, 2019 by beardown3231

[Sugashane]

6 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

I forgot all about that...

Yep, I had to look it up honestly. I thought he was a 5th or something. 

 

Gabriel safe this year but Nagy and Pace are going to see if Hall and Wims can develop. If either do then Gabriel's position is in jeopardy for 2020, if not he isn't on a bad deal. Just not a great one for a 4th/5th option. 

[AZBearsFan]

1 hour ago, Sugashane said:

Yep, I had to look it up honestly. I thought he was a 5th or something. 

 

Gabriel safe this year but Nagy and Pace are going to see if Hall and Wims can develop. If either do then Gabriel's position is in jeopardy for 2020, if not he isn't on a bad deal. Just not a great one for a 4th/5th option. 

It’s funny to me that the focus here is on Gabriel being expendable if Hall (a UDFA) or Wims (past year’s 7th) pan out when reality is that it’s most likely to be Riley Ridley who can make his $6.5M 2020 salary expendable. Ridley’s the new WR most likely to force his way into a top 3 WR role in the next year or less. 

[Heinz D.]

58 minutes ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’s funny to me that the focus here is on Gabriel being expendable if Hall (a UDFA) or Wims (past year’s 7th) pan out when reality is that it’s most likely to be Riley Ridley who can make his $6.5M 2020 salary expendable. Ridley’s the new WR most likely to force his way into a top 3 WR role in the next year or less. 

@beardown3231's point was that Gabriel fills the "speedster" role for the Bears. And while I disagree with him painting Ridley as a possession receiver, I do see his point--Gabriel vs. Hall, as to that pure explosive guy. I do get what you're saying, though. 

[Sugashane]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

It’s funny to me that the focus here is on Gabriel being expendable if Hall (a UDFA) or Wims (past year’s 7th) pan out when reality is that it’s most likely to be Riley Ridley who can make his $6.5M 2020 salary expendable. Ridley’s the new WR most likely to force his way into a top 3 WR role in the next year or less. 

To me it depends on Robinson more than anything. I don't mind having Gabriel as the number 3 for his price (behind Miller and Ridley), as long as we continue to invest and develop there. But if we have Robinson extended then he is the 4th WR and honestly I expect Cohen to take a lot of reps out wide, so he would be number 5. THAT is when he becomes a poor investment IMO. 

 

There are other variables too of course, but that is the biggest one to me. 

[AZBearsFan]

8 hours ago, Heinz D. said:

@beardown3231's point was that Gabriel fills the "speedster" role for the Bears. And while I disagree with him painting Ridley as a possession receiver, I do see his point--Gabriel vs. Hall, as to that pure explosive guy. I do get what you're saying, though. 

I get that too, but Gabriel wasn’t really used like that last year either. He did run deep routes on occasion but not to my perception any more frequently than Robinson or Miller. What remains to be shown is whether that was because it wasn’t really a role he would excel in or if that was because Nagy needed him to be available far more in the short or intermediate passing game because Howard wasn’t a factor there. Nagy undoubtedly saw the need to keep his young QB ahead of the sticks and it’s definitely plausible that he sacrificed a good portion of his deep passing game with Gabriel and others to do so. Now that we have Montgomery and Davis who can fill that check down receiver role very well where Howard didn’t I am anxious to see how it opens up what we are able to do with our receivers. My suspicion is we see significantly more routes in the intermediate and deep passing game from our receivers and we get a much clearer vision of Nagy’s offense and how the pieces we have fit into it. Once that plays out I’m guessing these personnel decisions will largely answer themselves. 

[Heinz D.]

2 hours ago, AZBearsFan said:

I get that too, but Gabriel wasn’t really used like that last year either. He did run deep routes on occasion but not to my perception any more frequently than Robinson or Miller. What remains to be shown is whether that was because it wasn’t really a role he would excel in or if that was because Nagy needed him to be available far more in the short or intermediate passing game because Howard wasn’t a factor there. Nagy undoubtedly saw the need to keep his young QB ahead of the sticks and it’s definitely plausible that he sacrificed a good portion of his deep passing game with Gabriel and others to do so. Now that we have Montgomery and Davis who can fill that check down receiver role very well where Howard didn’t I am anxious to see how it opens up what we are able to do with our receivers. My suspicion is we see significantly more routes in the intermediate and deep passing game from our receivers and we get a much clearer vision of Nagy’s offense and how the pieces we have fit into it. Once that plays out I’m guessing these personnel decisions will largely answer themselves. 

Agreed. The article sort of glosses over the fact that Robinson and Miller aren't exactly slow, too.